I'm really sick today and stayed home from church. I don't like skipping.
I don't feel well enough to do much of anything, so I figured I'd just copy paste a few results from some other players on my radar. Most of these players are hybrid DE/DT types, rather than true EDGE players, but the Patriots tend to prioritize those players lately. I'll post side by side comparisons of their Relative Athletic Scores as both DTs and DEs. More and more, the NFL is moving toward reducing the DE inside for rush packages to get more speed on the field. We have a history of doing that -- see below with Jarvis Green example -- but as the Super Bowl showed, it's one of the most effective ways to shut down a high-powered passing attack.
I also wanted to mention that most of these players caught my attention from watching games first, and then I tried to whittle down the list based on how well the players fit the prototype, at least to my understanding. I do my best to be an amateur tape- watcher. I'm not purely scouting by numbers, although I do believe there are clear thresholds that the Patriots prefer if given an option, so measurables absolutely factor into my evaluations.
Potential draft targets
He needs work with his hands, but Rasheem Green is physically a very strong candidate for the inside/outside role that the Patriots have been developing lately. He's very similar to another Green who used to play for them, in fact: Jarvis Green, a 4th round pick who carved out a strong contributing role as a substitute 34 DE, and also an interior rusher on 3rd down. Rasheem is bigger and more athletic, and primarily played DT at USC, but I believe that his testing numbers give him a real shot as a base 43 DE. He had 10 sacks this year, and while his tape never wowed me, he did show a lot of skills that lead me to believe he will be on the Patriots radar on draft day, possibly as high as 63.
Dorance Armstrong Jr is an enigma to me. Some reps look good, and then he'll just disappear for much of the game. When he's playing well, he looks like a far superior athlete to his testing numbers (although his pro day was immensely better than his admittedly poor Combine, and I've used those numbers here), but I'm just unsure if he'll ever reach his potential. I
want to like his tape more than I actually do, if that makes sense. He has really long arms, shows occasional moments of brilliances as a rusher, and sometimes flashes solid bend. He may develop better under a pro coaching staff, but he's a high risk prospect to me who will probably go higher than he should based on his excellent production as a junior. If he's there in the 6th, or if the Patriots acquire a 5th, then I'm intrigued. I prefer other players on this list, however.
Jalyn Holmes is coming off an hip injury, so he may be more explosive than his numbers show. He had his best success rushing from the inside, and I believe that ultimately he'll bulk up 10 - 15 pounds and become a full time 3-tech (running his numbers as a DT puts him in the top 4% of testers, even at 283 pounds). He certainly has quickness and fluidity to stay on the edge as a base DE, but Holmes is very gifted when rushing against guards, despite his mediocre stats. He uses his length and athleticism to cause a lot of havoc from an inside alignment, and often his teammates cleaned up after he caused the initial pressure. Anywhere from 95 onward seems like good value for his skill set. As an aside, I believe we'll try to pick up a 4th/5th. Too big of a gap between our picks right now, and a ton of value players available. Belichick worked out Holmes personally at his pro day, for whatever that's worth.
Chad Thomas reminds me a TON of Deatrich Wise on tape. He's a diverse talent with interests in music and the arts, and seems like a really smart kid with a untapped potential. The problem is that the U has been waiting for him to put it together for his entire career (only 10 career sacks in 40 games, although he does have two straight seasons of double-digit tackles for a loss). On the plus side, he did have a good showing at the all star games alongside other draft prospects, and his pro day testing was much improved from his rather mediocre Combine performance. Again, as with the other players, I've given him the benefit of the doubt and gone with the higher numbers. Perhaps he's trending upward. He's either about to unlock his immense potential, or flounder around the league for two years and never play again. Boom or bust 4th/5th round kind of gamble.
Breeland Speaks is picking up some steam. He's a fun player to watch. Big personality, lots of splash plays, and the kind of energy that a defense feeds off at its best. I'm not sure he's that good, though; he seems to me more like a college star than an NFL player. I don't think he'll ever be a starter, but I believe the Patriots have worked him out, so he's worth at least examining for the role.
Ade Aruna is really big and really fast. That's about the best praise I can come up with for him. Unfortunately, despite excellent speed numbers, his 3-cone was abysmal. He improved it at his pro day, which was good. Unfortunately, he was unable to improve his short shuttle, and actually ran worse! I'm giving him the better score, though. His lack of flexibility and poor core strength really show up on tape. He gets bullied in the run game even with his excellent explosion numbers and large frame.
To his credit, he plays with a revved up motor. Always a place for players with unrelenting effort. He's new to football, and he's mentioned that he is applying himself to become a better student of the game, because he is lacking in experience compared with most of the top players. There's some validity to the Ezekiel Ansah comparison (immigrants with a late start in football, but the size and athleticism to excel), except that Ansah had great agility and far superior core strength. Just based on physical tools, he's probably worth a shot in the 4th / 5th, but he's at least a year away from getting any real snaps, and may never reach his potential.
John Franklin-Meyers plays with energy and solid leverage. He's a very strong player, and he bullied his way to nearly 30 TFLs over the last two seasons. He played this season around 300 pounds, but trimmed down for the lead up to the draft. He's another candidate for the inside/outside kind of role, with surprising athleticism for a guy in the 280s. Could do a lot worse with a 6th / 7th round flyer. Lot of upside with the right staff.
Nice write up from Lance Zierlein here:
NFL Draft & Combine Profile - JOHN FRANKLIN-MYERS | NFL.com
