Trading Into 2019

[PatriotsNumero1Fan]

Only?!

We would still have number 31 in the draft and our other second rounder this year. I am thinking long term here dude. You have to give up something to get that number 2.

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

I think josh Rosen's that guy. Call me crazy but he reminds me of rodgers. Like his pocket presence.

From a physical standpoint he looks like Rodgers. I don’t know about the arm talent even though Rosen throws a pretty spiral. Plus I like that Rodgers slipped in the draft giving him that chip on his shoulder. Personally I would hope for a small move up if mayfield slips down, I can see baker playing with that chip if 3 qbs go ahead of him, especially since he believes (and rightfully so) that he’s better than all 3.

 

[maineman209]

To get a 2019 1st-rounder PLUS a 2018 2nd, likely trade candidates might be teams that have already drafted fairly high in the first, and are looking to get back in or looking to jump most of the early 2nd-round spots, and who probably have more than one 3rd-rounder.

ARI (#15) ... #47 (2nd) ... #79 & #97 (3rd)
DEN (#5) ... #40 (2nd) ... #71 & #99 (3rd) ... they also have 2-4ths and 2-5ths.

These might want the #23, though.
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KCY has no 1st-rounder, but might be willing to give up their #54 and their 2019 1st for the #31.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

I think josh Rosen's that guy. Call me crazy but he reminds me of rodgers. Like his pocket presence.

Different evaluators see different things I guess. His pocket presence is exactly why I don't like him at all. I think he panics and struggles to keep an even keel.

 

[PatriotsNumero1Fan]

Different evaluators see different things I guess. His pocket presence is exactly why I don't like him at all. I think he panics and struggles to keep an even keel.

I don't see that but who knows. He has all the tools. I don't know who the giants will take but if they don't get a package from someone they would be foolish to pass up on him. If they draft rosen then the jests will likely take mayfield lol. Idk about Allen but he needs to sit a couple of years.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

If we traded away this year's draft to get Rosen or some such what does that say to Brady? We will have seriously hurt our ability to compete in 2018 AND 2019 as well as 2018 picks mature to get his replacement. Tommy Boy, go try to do as much as you can while we admit the D and your protection are below par for contenders. Don't worry, because when you retire Rosen will be there for us.
I think Tom would retire post 2018 season if we did something like this. He plays to win SBs. If management is distracted by the new shiny object to the substantial detriment of the 53, why bother?

 

[maineman209]

We would still have number 31 in the draft and our other second rounder this year. I am thinking long term here dude. You have to give up something to get that number 2.

Well, first of all, the #2 overall spot is valued at 2600, and - assuming that the Giants don't want a QB for themselves, the #23 (760) + #43 (470) + the Pats 2019 1st (likely to be in the bottom four) isn't going to get that done. Especially since ...
... A) that takes them well out of range for most of the non-QB top prospects in this draft
... B) Buffalo can offer them the #12 (1200) AND #22 (780) in this draft, just to open the bidding.

So, the Pats could expect to offer the #23 (760) AND the #31 (600) AND the #43 (470) AND the #63 (276) AND something else hypothetically worth ~500 points in trade value (like the Pats 2019 1st-rounder) just to get the Giants to listen.

That's a metric butt-load of roster-building opportunities going out the door for just one prospect.

 

[luuked]

We would still have number 31 in the draft and our other second rounder this year. I am thinking long term here dude. You have to give up something to get that number 2.

Fortunately none of this sillyness will happen under BB.

 

[KDPPatsfan85]

I think we keep the picks and take 4 players. I am hoping...

23. Rashaan Evans ILB Alabama
31. Mason Rudolph QB Oklahoma State
43. Sony Michel RB Georgia
63. Duke Ejiofor Edge Wake Forest

 

[luuked]

I see two positions where this may be important: LT and QB.

If we believe that the current prospects aren't worthy, and perhaps that we have other less expensive solutions, then perhaps we should trade 2 of our top 63 picks for 2019 first so that we will have the ammunition to address these positions next year if we need to.

Under this scenario, we'd see if we have a starting LT in Garcia (or perhaps someone else), and whether one of flyers on a QB has paid off.

One of the first 4 picks will most certainly be traded down to close the gigantic gap between #95 and #198. Keep that in mind if you want to move things into the future.

Also there is still the possibility that BB finds another team who would be willing to give away someone highly rated on a rookie deal the same way we got Cooks last year. Trading picks for players on shorter cost-controlled contracts that have less risk of busting won't be a one-off we did last year.

With college players needing more and more time to become NFL ready thanks to a dumbed down game down in college and more and more practice restrictions it makes sense.

 

[Tunescribe]

If the Patriots trade down or into next year with this draft, I might never again pay attention to their picks until the preseason games.

 

[jah]

I think we keep the picks and take 4 players. I am hoping...

23. Rashaan Evans ILB Alabama
31. Mason Rudolph QB Oklahoma State
43. Sony Michel RB Georgia
63. Duke Ejiofor Edge Wake Forest

Mason Rudolph in the 3rd round would be terrible.

 

[PatriotsNumero1Fan]

I think we will keep the picks in the end but eventually brady will decline you would think. We need to get a QB.

 

[mgteich]

I think the draft value chart breaks down a bit when we go into the top 5. Trades happen that theoretically shouldn't.

Belichick rarely has an interest in trading future picks.

So, let's start with using our first 3 picks. Theoretically, this gets us up to 4th. The Giants may be willing, or not. They may ask us to add a 2019 pick. Now, I do NOT think the the Giants would do this, However, if they don't want a QB, they might prefer our 3 picks to Chubb or Barklay. So, sure, we might get the deal for #2.

CONCLUSION 1
We can put together a package that moves up to #4 that leaves us with more picks than in 2017. In fact, we'd likely trade down in the second and pick up a 4th and 5th, giving us the full amount of 7 picks with two 2nds instead of a 1st and a 2nd. As was the case last year, we would have already trading picks for players, bring in Shelton, McCourty and Patterson.

So, we hardly rape this year's draft by trading our first 3 picks.

CONCLUSION 2
We can make the deal for 4 with CLE if the Giants chose Chubbs and our QB was available at 4.

CONCLUSION 3
Is Chubbs a top defensive player comparable to McGuinist and Seymour? If so, then Belichick might consider him to be worth the 4th.

CONCLUSION 4
Lesser trades (moving up to 9 - through 22) would not cripple our draft or our team. In any of these cases, we would be using 2 picks to get one player (23 and 31 would get us to 9). Are there players worth it? Most of us would say no. Belichick may agree or disagree. Clearly we would consider must more likely to get a starter at 9 or 15 than a lower position. Yes, Belichick would need to believe that this player is worth 2 players.

Is the best LB or DE in the draft worth a 10 pick? worth both of our firsts? I truly don't know.

Well, first of all, the #2 overall spot is valued at 2600, and - assuming that the Giants don't want a QB for themselves, the #23 (760) + #43 (470) + the Pats 2019 1st (likely to be in the bottom four) isn't going to get that done. Especially since ...
... A) that takes them well out of range for most of the non-QB top prospects in this draft
... B) Buffalo can offer them the #12 (1200) AND #22 (780) in this draft, just to open the bidding.

So, the Pats could expect to offer the #23 (760) AND the #31 (600) AND the #43 (470) AND the #63 (276) AND something else hypothetically worth ~500 points in trade value (like the Pats 2019 1st-rounder) just to get the Giants to listen.

That's a metric butt-load of roster-building opportunities going out the door for just one prospect.

 

[FoxboroFlyer]

I think we will keep the picks in the end but eventually brady will decline you would think. We need to get a QB.

Agreed, but sacrificing a boat load of picks now and future for Rosen is not the answer.

 

[mgteich]

I think the draft value chart breaks down a bit when we go into the top 5. Trades happen that theoretically shouldn't.

Belichick rarely has an interest in trading future picks.

So, let's start with using our first 3 picks. Theoretically, this gets us up to 4th. The Giants may be willing, or not. They may ask us to add a 2019 pick. Now, I do NOT think the the Giants would do this, However, if they don't want a QB, they might prefer our 3 picks to Chubb or Barklay. So, sure, we might get the deal for #2.

CONCLUSION 1
We can put together a package that moves up to #4 that leaves us with more picks than in 2017. In fact, we'd likely trade down in the second and pick up a 4th and 5th, giving us the full amount of 7 picks with two 2nds instead of a 1st and a 2nd. As was the case last year, we would have already trading picks for players, bring in Shelton, McCourty and Patterson.

So, we hardly rape this year's draft by trading our first 3 picks.

CONCLUSION 2
We can make the deal for 4 with CLE if the Giants chose Chubbs and our QB was available at 4.

CONCLUSION 3
Is Chubbs a top defensive player comparable to McGinist (4th pick) or Seymour (6th pick). If so, then Belichick might consider him to be worth the 4th.

Well, first of all, the #2 overall spot is valued at 2600, and - assuming that the Giants don't want a QB for themselves, the #23 (760) + #43 (470) + the Pats 2019 1st (likely to be in the bottom four) isn't going to get that done. Especially since ...
... A) that takes them well out of range for most of the non-QB top prospects in this draft
... B) Buffalo can offer them the #12 (1200) AND #22 (780) in this draft, just to open the bidding.

So, the Pats could expect to offer the #23 (760) AND the #31 (600) AND the #43 (470) AND the #63 (276) AND something else hypothetically worth ~500 points in trade value (like the Pats 2019 1st-rounder) just to get the Giants to listen.

That's a metric butt-load of roster-building opportunities going out the door for just one prospect.

 

[PatsFan2]

You Trade with Teams who traditionally suck like the Browns - Jets and Cardinals.

 

[PatsFan2]

In this Deep Draft it might be unwise to do so. We have plenty of holes on D and durability issues roster wide.

 

[maineman209]

I think the draft value chart breaks down a bit when we go into the top 5. Trades happen that theoretically shouldn't.

Trade involving the top five picks often break away from the draft value chart by quite a bit (it's really the only section of the draft in which it does break down regularly by a significant margin). However, that's changed a bit over time.

Before the new CBA and rookie wage scale, teams drafting in the top five often didn't want to be there and have to deal with the rookie salary negotiations. So, they'd trade out at a sometimes substantial discount - 25%-30% in a couple of instances. Even so, there were plenty on instances in which a team holding a top-3 pick committed highway robbery and received up to a 30% premium.

Since the rookie wage scale has been in place, the "giveaways" have pretty much disappeared, especially when the circumstance of a particular draft have provided the high-pick holder with substantial leverage - the kind of leverage that the Giants have now with the #2. If they'll be happy with taking a QB later and feel they can acquire a high-value player at one position of need or another as long as they remain in the top-10 or even-top-15 after a trade, they'll be able to get every point that the chart shows for the #2 and possibly a bit more, because it won't matter to them if they end up "having to" pick at #2. It seems to me that about the only way they'd accept a "point discount" is if they're receiving five relatively early picks in exchange - or - as with any likely Buffalo offer - a pick in the top-15 plus another first (and more) that they can trade down for more picks in 2018 or even into the 2019 draft.

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As an example from this year's draft, the Jets acquired the #3 from IND (2200 points) in exchange for the #6 (1600) + both their 2nd-rounders, #37 (530) & #49 (410) ... a total of 2540 trade for a pick charted at 2200 ... they paid a 15.5% premium above chart values to move up 3 spots.

 

[PWRxWLF]

I think we keep the picks and take 4 players. I am hoping...

23. Rashaan Evans ILB Alabama
31. Mason Rudolph QB Oklahoma State
43. Sony Michel RB Georgia
63. Duke Ejiofor Edge Wake Forest

That would be an absurd haul. I really like me some LVE, but I think I’d survive.