Official Free Agency 2018

[PWRxWLF]

I assume Colvin is looking for a job in the 2016 Logan Ryan role, because there's a lot more money to be made if teams see him as a #2 that can move to the slot instead of as a pure #3 like he was in Jacksonville (albeit behind two really good corners). I'm not sure the Patriots would pay him the $10 million a year that Ryan got, but if no team is willing to pay that much then I could see the Patriots being involved. Colvin has a bunch of red flags than Ryan didn't have, including a PED suspension, 0 career (regular season) interceptions, limited starts in his last two seasons, and the benefit of an elite pass rush that won't be matched by his new team.

DRC might be cheap enough to be a pure #3 guy, but I'm not really sure how things will work out for him. It seems that a lot of the issues from last season weren't directly related to his quality of play.

Very insightful response. Thanks!

 

[supafly]

I assume Colvin is looking for a job in the 2016 Logan Ryan role, because there's a lot more money to be made if teams see him as a #2 that can move to the slot instead of as a pure #3 like he was in Jacksonville (albeit behind two really good corners). I'm not sure the Patriots would pay him the $10 million a year that Ryan got, but if no team is willing to pay that much then I could see the Patriots being involved. Colvin has a bunch of red flags than Ryan didn't have, including a PED suspension, 0 career (regular season) interceptions, limited starts in his last two seasons, and the benefit of an elite pass rush that won't be matched by his new team.

DRC might be cheap enough to be a pure #3 guy, but I'm not really sure how things will work out for him. It seems that a lot of the issues from last season weren't directly related to his quality of play.

I was down for some DRC prior to his last signing and many pointed out the flaws. If the price is right, let’s make it happen. The window is shutting, plain as day. You can deny it, but we are seeing that process evolve.

I would top my AAV at around 6m dollars, so I could be way off. To me, it’s looking as though we are addressing the position in the draft, but for the price that I suggested, I would show interest, yes.

 

[luuked]

You'd be surprised what a bidding war for the only good LT can do

There wont be a bidding war into the 15-16M range for a LT. You are just pulling numbers out of your ass.

 

[luuked]

 

[supafly]

So, he’ll be paired up with Cooks then?

 

[Turkamu]

Haven't seen anyone mention him here. Only 25 and with Chung and DMC getting older might be time to look for a replacement.

 

[oceansizer]

His cap hit for 2018 is over 14 mln. $. Far too expensive for us.

 

[luuked]

Haven't seen anyone mention him here. Only 25 and with Chung and DMC getting older might be time to look for a replacement.

Oh he has been discussed. He would be a great Belichickian fit but his frequent injury issues and price tag will be out of interest range for us.

Kenny Vaccaro seems like a more realistic option to add a young safety into the fold. He is obviously less talented than TM but that doesnt matter too much as he would be used in specific sub groups according to his strengths and not everywhere like TM.

 

[luuked]

So, he’ll be paired up with Cooks then?

Gotta get them draft picks otherwise how else can we make sure Brady has legit options to throw to ? Amirite ?

 

[maineman209]

We had a lot of issues with flexibility last year in the secondary. Gilmore not being able to play zone was a biggie. We did not fool people with our back end coverages much - OCs had a good idea what they would face - what scheme, who would be on who etc. And when something was not working, we could not adapt well. The loss of Ryan was under appreciated.

The impact of the loss of Ryan on run-D has also been underappreciated. One of the best - if not THE best - edge-contain DBs the Pats have had. Also blew up screens on a regular basis. The Pats' leading tackler in 2016 and 2nd-leading in 2015.

 

[maineman209]

Haven't seen anyone mention him here. Only 25 and with Chung and DMC getting older might be time to look for a replacement.

Chung and DMac aren't done by any means, but, yeah, it's definitely time to begin grooming replacements, perhaps even a little late already.

There have been several cheerleader posts for Mathieu in this thread and others, but the problem, of course, is price.

I mean, I understand how excited fans get over possibilities when a dynamic, high-quality player has become available to the Pats, and then how disappointed they are when the Pats appear to blithely ignore such players. But there seems to be a general lack of awareness about how really tight the Pats' cap space is this time around and how few realistic/practical avenues are currently available to them for substantially increasing that space without creating significant weakness elsewhere on the roster.

From my perspective, adding a player - no matter how good - to the secondary (the least weak of the three defensive levels) whose 2018 cap hit is likely to be greater than about $3M, probably not only significantly reduces the Pats ability to sign a reasonably capable veteran LB to shore up the vastly underexperienced second-level, it may also pre-empt any chance of re-signing Solder, Fleming/Waddle, etc.

So, while a guy like DRC or Mathieu for "only $6M" (what Sherman's 2018 cap hit ultimately turned out to be) seems like a great deal - and would have been affordable last spring, when the Pats were rolling in about $60M in free cap space - if that's the cap hit for 2018, it's probably well outside the Pats realistic range this time around.

 

[maineman209]

There wont be a bidding war into the 15-16M range for a LT. You are just pulling numbers out of your ass.

In the end, as long as the Pats are willing to outbid other teams on the fully-guaranteed money, it won't really matter what the "on paper" AAV looks like.

 

[supafly]

So, while a guy like DRC or Mathieu for "only $6M" (what Sherman's 2018 cap hit ultimately turned out to be) seems like a great deal - and would have been affordable last spring, when the Pats were rolling in about $60M in free cap space - if that's the cap hit for 2018, it's probably well outside the Pats realistic range this time around.

Where exactly did that 65m go last year, again? Mainly—Gilmore, HT, Harmon and Burkhead? I’m about to hire H & R Block to investigate because something still seems off to me. I guess they didn’t have too many players under contract, which is likely the correct answer, but still...damn.

 

[PF_SU]

Where exactly did that 65m go last year, again? Mainly—Gilmore, HT, Harmon and Burkhead? I’m about to hire H & R Block to investigate because something still seems off to me. I guess they didn’t have too many players under contract, which is likely the correct answer, but still...damn.

Cap hit 2017
Stephon Gilmore: $8.5 million
Dont'a Hightower: $5.3 million
Duron Harmon: $3.5 million
Rex Burkhead: $3.2 million
Mike Gilleslee: $4.0 million
Brandin Cooks: $1.6 million
David Harris: $2.8 million
Lawrence Guy: $2.6 million
Dwayne Allen: $4.9 million
Malcolm Butler: $3.9 million

These players already combine for roughly 40 million.

 

[maineman209]

Where exactly did that 65m go last year, again? Mainly—Gilmore, HT, Harmon and Burkhead? I’m about to hire H & R Block to investigate because something still seems off to me. I guess they didn’t have too many players under contract, which is likely the correct answer, but still...damn.

Miguel would surely know.

 

[luuked]

Cap hit 2017
Stephon Gilmore: $8.5 million
Dont'a Hightower: $5.3 million
Duron Harmon: $3.5 million
Rex Burkhead: $3.2 million
Mike Gilleslee: $4.0 million
Brandin Cooks: $1.6 million
David Harris: $2.8 million
Lawrence Guy: $2.6 million
Dwayne Allen: $4.9 million
Malcolm Butler: $3.9 million

These players already combine for roughly 40 million.

Add in Gronks additional incentives that came for free.. Also I think there might have been a bump in Chungs incentives if I remember correctly.. (600-800k)..

 

[luuked]

In the end, as long as the Pats are willing to outbid other teams on the fully-guaranteed money, it won't really matter what the "on paper" AAV looks like.

Speaking of..



The APY numbers that are being thrown around now are just stupidly misleading. At this point they should report gAPY and APY but that would make everyone look bad. So instead lets report fake numbers everyone knows not to be true and celebrate all together as teams, agents and players.. yay

13.3m APY my ass..

 

[maineman209]

Where exactly did that 65m go last year, again? Mainly—Gilmore, HT, Harmon and Burkhead? I’m about to hire H & R Block to investigate because something still seems off to me. I guess they didn’t have too many players under contract, which is likely the correct answer, but still...damn.

Here's my estimate of the Pats 2018 cap space situation:

$21.2M (Miguel's current number)
-$2.7M DRAFT (estimate for 7 draftees + unknown number of UDFA)
-$6.0M Regular season emergency fund (minimum)
_______________________________________________
$12.5M USABLE CAP SPACE for 2018

Here are (IMO) most of the moves (some extreme) that the Pats have left for creating more 2018 cap space (and it may not be quite this much):

$1.9M release McClellin
$2.2M extend-restructure Allen, 2 years
$3.2M extend-restructure Gronk, 2 years
$4.0M restructure McCourty
$6.0M restructure Brady
$3.8M extend Cooks, 5 years
________________________________________________
$21.1M CAP SPACE ADDED
$33.6M USABLE CAP SPACE for 2018

+ $2.2M cutting Gillislee
... but then you're creating yet another hole/weakness at RB that would need to be backfilled at some undetermined cost. Proven guys like Murray/McKinnon will cost more; unproven rookies will cost less.

+ $2.8M cutting Allen instead of restructuring
... but then you're creating yet another hole/weakness in the blocking schemes, which could become even more critical if Solder is replaced with a "lesser" player, and if all of Lewis/Burkhead/Gillislee need to be replaced, especially with rookies. And then, there's also a replacement cost to consider. It wil almost certainly be $2M+, if you're going for a different veteran TE; it would certainly be less if you're going for an unproven rookie.
________________________________________________
Then, here are some very conservative estimates for the potential 2018 cap hits of re-signed, in-house UFAs:

$33.6M USABLE CAP SPACE

-$11.0M re-sign Solder, 2 years (his 2017 cap hit)
-$4.0M re-sign Fleming, 3 years
-$2.5M re-sign Burkhead, 3 years
-$1.5M re-sign M. Flowers, 3 years (ST level)
-$1.5M re-sign Ebner, 2 years (salary cut)
-$1.5M re-sign Slater, 1 year (salary cut)
_________________________________________________
- $22.0M in RE-SIGNINGS =

$11.6 USABLE CAP SPACE

Note that the above list does NOT include Lewis, Waddle, Bademosi OR AMENDOLA.

So, fans want a veteran CB, Safety, LB, pass-rushing DE? That $11.6 M is roughly what there is left to spend on all that.

Time to get creative and look for bargains like Shelton ($2M) instead of Suh ($7M+).

 

[patsbrasilpatriotas]

Speaking of..



The APY numbers that are being thrown around now are just stupidly misleading. At this point they should report gAPY and APY but that would make everyone look bad. So instead lets report fake numbers everyone knows not to be true and celebrate all together as teams, agents and players.. yay

13.3m APY my ass..

Sorry for my lack of knowledge but APY stands for Average per year, right? That's exactly what that is. We don't know the gtd money, that's misleading for sure, but the info is right. Like Sherman got probably a one year deal if he's not that good anymore.

 

[Love The Drake]

Well there goes the pipe dream of Robinson to the Pats.
Ugh If Robinson is only signing for 14 mill a season no way Cooks gets more than that.