Looking at how Hogan enters his final year of contract without any guarantees except 280k in a roster bonus I think there is a good chance that he will sign an extension that further reduces his (already small) cap charge in exchange for a guarantee that he won’t be cut at the end of camp and be left with nothing.
That being said he is also my dark horse candidate for surprise trade/cut. If MM works himself back, Dorsett builds a connection with Brady, Edelman comes back close to his original self and Dola re-signs there will be a logjam at the position. He seems like the most expendable if you also consider his age.
Reviewing the WR list, it occurred to me that there are a couple of things that might impact positional counts on the final 53.
1) Punt returner.
Given how BB has spoken at length about the significant differences in required skill sets between returning punts and returning kicks, this clearly isn't some ancillary, "anybody can do it" role. I think Amendola inherited that role from Edelman because he has great hands and, perhaps just as important, has the wisdom to know when to attempt a return and when not to.
The current candidates for PR are:
Amendola - UFA - PR ability is a significant added value for him
Edelman - coming off ACL
Cy Jones - some NFL experience, some potential as CB-reserve/ST
Reedy - some NFL experience some potential as a slot-WR/RB
McCarron - P-squad slot WR on futures contract (no NFL experience)
It seems to me that BB may add a couple more candidates to this menu through the draft, especially among UDFA (college PR experience may be more of + for prospects than it has in the recent past - perhaps something to keep in mind when evaluating DB, WR and RB prospects for this draft). However, as high-value as the PR role is, it's still unlikely that BB carries a PR specialist on the 53-man roster who doesn't contribute in any other way. This dual-role/versatility requirement may be especially pertinent for the 2018 roster, because ...
2) Third QB.
In the seemingly likely even that BB drafts an understudy QB next month, that will "short" the count at some other position. Historically, that's been mostly on the OL (which maybe further enhances the value to the Pats of Fleming and Croston over Waddle), but this could also add to the squeeze at WR and DB (and perhaps RB) wrt the PR issue.
Even though Camp is a long way off, it'll be interesting to see who takes reps at PR. If Dorsett is smart, he'll already be balls deep in learning how to return punts.
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