The Defensive Front 7 - Lots of Work, Lots Of Options

[maineman209]

Biggest piece missing is a NT IMO. Malcom Brown is fine as a 3-tech DT but we need someone else to clog the space and stop the run. Once Branch went down we have no one else capable of playing that role.

LB really isn't that big of an issue IMO. We lost our top two guys in Hightower and McClellin, and two rookies in Rivers and Langi (even if Langi wasn't going to contribute much), that's a big amount of depth lost in one season, I doubt this will happen again next season. We get those players back with KVN, Marquis Flowers and Roberts rotating in and out, I think we are set.

Valentine is 6035/329+ and will just be turning 24 on Feb 24th. He averaged over 35% of DL snaps per game in 13 games as a rookie run-stuffer (and started twice). It seems only reasonable to guess that, if Valentine had been healthy for 2017, Branch might never have even sniffed the field.

It all depends on the evaluations of the Pats coaches, but I wouldn't be at all shocked or disappointed if the Pats wait until the 6th or even the UDFA scrum to pick up another NT type rather than draft one in the first couple rounds. In fact, I'd be pleased in that it might serve to indicate that they really like Valentine and think he'll be fine moving forward.

 

[mgteich]

If Valentine is healthy, and near 100%, he is the replacement for Branch. Given how little Branch played, this would be a serious upgrade (really over Francois).

I'm fine with bring is someone to compete or upgrade Francois. However, we may be fine with a DT rotation of Brown, Valentine and Guy, with Butler or Wise occasionally playing inside on passing downs.

The question remains, is it lack of "talent"? Or is it lack of experience?

Butler, Wise and Lee had zero snaps on an NFL defense before this season.

M. Flowers had a total of 72.

This was Guy's first season in the Pats system and schemes. Van Noy has had only this season plus 7 games in 2016 learning on the fly (with no 2016 OTAs or Camp with the Pats). It seems to me that it's a bit early to be concluding that the problem is purely a "lack of talent."

 

[maineman209]

If Valentine is healthy, and near 100%, he is the replacement for Branch. Given how little Branch played, this would be a serious upgrade (really over Francois).

I'm fine with bring is someone to compete or upgrade Francois. However, we may be fine with a DT rotation of Brown, Valentine and Guy, with Butler or Wise occasionally playing inside on passing downs.

Francois certainly was useful late in the season and in the playoffs. Smart player. Seemed to pick up on things very quickly (like Harrison). I'd definitely like to see him on the 90-man roster through Camp.

The Pats' "true DT" count for the final 53 (guys who play almost exclusively on the interior) seems to be 3-4 most seasons. For 2018, that would seem to be Brown, Valentine, and Guy + one other. However, I agree, the variable is the number and quality available of DT/DE types like Butler and Wise (and Guy, really), as well as the number/quality of 4-3 DE types.

In 2016, the interior guys were three - Brown, Branch and Valentine - with Anthony Johnson and then Woody Hamilton filling in for emergencies. But then, the Pat also had four solid 4-3 DE types (Flowers, Nink, Sheard and Long) plus a couple vets behind them to handle OLB/DE type roles (HT and McClellin).

The actual final counts by (nominal) position (including DT, DE and LB) will likely remain fluid until final cuts.

 

[mgteich]

The actual final counts by (nominal) position (including DT, DE and LB) will likely remain fluid until final cuts.

yes, indeed.

 

[captain stone]

Biggest piece missing is a NT IMO. Malcom Brown is fine as a 3-tech DT but we need someone else to clog the space and stop the run. Once Branch went down we have no one else capable of playing that role.

LB really isn't that big of an issue IMO. We lost our top two guys in Hightower and McClellin, and two rookies in Rivers and Langi (even if Langi wasn't going to contribute much), that's a big amount of depth lost in one season, I doubt this will happen again next season. We get those players back with KVN, Marquis Flowers and Roberts rotating in and out, I think we are set.

Agree with the first paragraph. Unless Bill feels that Valentine is both healthy & capable enough (which I don't) to fill the role, then he'll have to draft a DT/NT either early (Tim Settle) or later (UConn's Foley Fatukasi or NCState's BJ Hill & Justin Jones). Don't know if he'll find any affordable help in the free agent marketplace.

Completely disagree with the 2nd paragraph, however, especially about McClellin & Roberts, who are completely useless and must be replaced before the season starts.

 

[IllegalContact]

Trey Flowers was certainly a rare exception to this.

He was in the field in the middle of his rookie year

 

[JackBauer]

Biggest piece missing is a NT IMO. Malcom Brown is fine as a 3-tech DT but we need someone else to clog the space and stop the run. Once Branch went down we have no one else capable of playing that role.

LB really isn't that big of an issue IMO. We lost our top two guys in Hightower and McClellin, and two rookies in Rivers and Langi (even if Langi wasn't going to contribute much), that's a big amount of depth lost in one season, I doubt this will happen again next season. We get those players back with KVN, Marquis Flowers and Roberts rotating in and out, I think we are set.

How can you use “Roberts rotating in” and “I think we are set” in the same sentence?

 

[Sciz]

He was in the field in the middle of his rookie year

Technically yes, but it was only 4 snaps before they decided that he wasn’t actually healthy and sent him to IR.

 

[IllegalContact]

Technically yes, but it was only 4 snaps before they decided that he wasn’t actually healthy and sent him to IR.

Correct .... but he was active during preseason as well as active during the season

Which is different than missing the entire season like rivers and Garcia and others who never saw a regular practice....hope I’m wrong but this is how it tends to work out

 

[Uptown]

3 NFL Draft fixes for Patriots pass rush

 

[maineman209]

3 NFL Draft fixes for Patriots pass rush

It's trypical that the author's note about Hubbard being a "strong run defender" is buried in the last paragraph of his scouting report on Turay.

People who understand what BB is actually looking for in a DE would have led Hubbard's scouting report with that.

 

[mgteich]

ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS ABOUT LINEBACKERS

INSIDE
I listed Hightower and Van Noy as locks, with Roberts competing (and very upgradable as a backup). That's OK, and a good place to start.

OTHER LINEBACKERS
I listed Rivers as a lock, and then the vast unwashed.
I think this focused me on this as the #1 team need, along with OT. We really should be re-signing Harrison and Flowers, even if we have to pay more than posters might wish to pay.

Gone: Branch, Harris

DT/NT (4-5)
Brown, Valentine, Guy
1) re-sign Francois
2) add a couple

DE/LB (9-10)
ALMOST LOCKS: Hightower, Van Noy, T Flowers, Wise, A Butler, Rivers

COMPETING
DEFEAULT: Lee, Roberts, McClellan, Grigsby, Grissom
Kidder, Davis

POTENTIAL RE-SIGNS
Harrison (likely to re-sign)
M Flowers (Miguel thinks that he'll go elsewhere; he will likely test free agency)
King (a STer, usually listed/counted as a LB)

BOTTOM LINE
We have 9; 5 are wide open, depending on health and performance. This core of 9 is likely good enough to be top 5 in points allowed for the last half (yet again). Obviously, this presumes that we get something from the additional six, or that no one is injured.

Finally, we do indeed have lots of room for improvement. IMHO, extending Harrison is a good start.

ALMOST LOCKS (9)
DL: Wise, Flowers, Brown, Guy, Valentine, A Butler
LB: Hightower, Van Noy, Rivers

 

[RayClay]

I sure wouldn't worry about calling anybody a lock. They need a massive infusion of talent, size and athleticism first, then let the chips fall where they may. That super bowl defense couldn't stop a fly. Of course, that includes the phantom CB/safety duo mystery couple. This happens every time they choose offense over defense in spending/drafting.

They need fierce competition on that defense. Why would you consider anyone a "lock" out of that group? They couldn't stop the run, couldn't collapse the pocket, couldn't rush the passer and couldn't cover tight ends. Other than that, they were great.

 

[RayClay]

ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS ABOUT LINEBACKERS

INSIDE
I listed Hightower and Van Noy as locks, with Roberts competing (and very upgradable as a backup). That's OK, and a good place to start.

OTHER LINEBACKERS
I listed Rivers as a lock, and then the vast unwashed.
I think this focused me on this as the #1 team need, along with OT. We really should be re-signing Harrison and Flowers, even if we have to pay more than posters might wish to pay.

If they can't cut Roberts easily, with no qualms, that's an indication they are in trouble personnel wise. He is an [almost] stop gap player. He's undersized and slow, but he compensates for that by not being able to cover either.

 

[maineman209]

I sure wouldn't worry about calling anybody a lock. They need a massive infusion of talent, size and athleticism first, then let the chips fall where they may. That super bowl defense couldn't stop a fly. Of course, that includes the phantom CB/safety duo mystery couple. This happens every time they choose offense over defense in spending/drafting.

They need fierce competition on that defense. Why would you consider anyone a "lock" out of that group? They couldn't stop the run, couldn't collapse the pocket, couldn't rush the passer and couldn't cover tight ends. Other than that, they were great.

And as a group, they also had almost no NFL experience.

Of the 9 players who contributed nearly all of the snaps in the front-7, two were virtual rookies and two were literal rookies and one was a second-year player.

The difference in Pats spending between offense and defense is less than Brady's cap hit.

The OL accounts for the majority of the Pats draft picks on offense, and they've still spent more picks overall on defense.

 

[maineman209]

If they can't cut Roberts easily, with no qualms, that's an indication they are in trouble personnel wise. He is an [almost] stop gap player. He's undersized and slow, but he compensates for that by not being able to cover either.

Just completed his second NFL season and was not likely drafted to be a starter.

 

[mgteich]

If they can't cut Roberts easily, with no qualms, that's an indication they are in trouble personnel wise. He is an [almost] stop gap player. He's undersized and slow, but he compensates for that by not being able to cover either.

I agree that we should we should have a better 3rd (backup) MLB. There is no reason to cut him and replace him on the 90 man roster. He is fine for camp.

 

[maust]

Just completed his second NFL season and was not likely drafted to be a starter.

Exactly. Roberts was a 6th rd (#214 overall) project pick. At his salary slot of $650k he isn't exactly holding anyone back.

 

[mgteich]

I share your optimism. I will share it more when we re-sign Flowers and Harrison.

And as a group, they also had almost no NFL experience.

Of the 9 players who contributed nearly all of the snaps in the front-7, two were virtual rookies and two were literal rookies and one was a second-year player.

The difference in Pats spending between offense and defense is less than Brady's cap hit.

The OL accounts for the majority of the Pats draft picks on offense, and they've still spent more picks overall on defense.

 

[mgteich]

Any linebacker corp where Roberts has the 2nd most reps (by far) needs major help.

And as a group, they also had almost no NFL experience.

Of the 9 players who contributed nearly all of the snaps in the front-7, two were virtual rookies and two were literal rookies and one was a second-year player.

The difference in Pats spending between offense and defense is less than Brady's cap hit.

The OL accounts for the majority of the Pats draft picks on offense, and they've still spent more picks overall on defense.