Pats-Eagles stats/gameplan/matchup discussion

[RIpats88]

This is a thread to examine the Eagles/Patriots matchup in two weeks and the Eagles strengths/weakness' and how the patriots can beat them.

I will admit I havent watched many eagles games this year (despite wentz being on my fantasy team)

What is it that atlanta did to hold the eagles to 15 points vs. the vikings that let Nick foles do whatever he wanted?

One thing I was surprised to see considering all the talk of the Eagles front 4 is that they were 16th in sacks at 38 while the patriots were 8th with 42. obviously both pale in comparison to jacksonville which had 55 and Pitt with 56

also, something interesting from an article

some interesting stats I read
"Entering the NFC title game, Foles had a passer rating of 34.0 under pressure, according to Pro Football Focus. Against Minnesota, that number ballooned to 152.1."

and

"Foles went from 7-of-21 passing on third down in his previous three games combined to completing 10 straight throws on third down against minnesota"

thoughts? My first impression is that their defense while good isnt as stout as Jax. But their offense is much more dynamic with solid RB's, TE and WR's. The key is going to be getting foles off of a rhythm. Perhaps bringing pressure early on him as he is not a threat to run

 

[patriot1136]

Zach Ertz will be a tough matchup, he's a good player. We all assume Chung will cover him. Chung has been good on TEs in the past but he will have trouble. Not sure how to contain him.

I'm also wondering about Alshon Jeffrey. I'm trying to think back to his Chicago days and him struggling. Has he just improved now overall? Whatever was causing him to mess up in Chicago, we need to try to exploit that.

For us on offense, in another threat, someone mentioned the Philly DBs being weak against the double move and deep passes. Maybe we can use that to our advantage and get Cooks/Hogan/Dorsett downfield.

 

[long distance]

One big challenge . also re. game management . compared to JAX and other strong D-lines . is not only the quality but this time also the depth of Philly front line. Unlike Jags their rotation enables them to put pressure for 60 min.

On the other hand they are very thin at LB . although Bradham and Kendricks are doing a great job. There is less speed and quickness (outside Kendricks) so there should be space for underneath game, outside runs, screens..

They had a short game in NFCCG so it remains to be seen how it goes on a 4 hour chess game..
____

Enough challenges for Pats D as well. Deep and versatile RB committee, solid receivers and serious matchup challenge in Ertz.

Big task for Matty P farewell game . hope he saved best for last and goes out with a bang!

 

[TomPatriot]

I haven't formulated my thinking on this game yet, though not that it's anything great anyway. I've only seen a few Eagles games (Giants, Falcons, Hawks) On D, the Eagles don't seem play press man much so you get some space for digs and slants. I like the occasional traps and wham blocks against their DL. IIRC, Eli had success passing against them.

I assume Jeffrey is getting Gilmore most of the game. Butler mostly gets Smith, Rowe mostly gets Agholor. Vatai on Flowers is an interesting matchup. Flowers is a lot bigger and stronger than McKinley and nearly as quick. Johnson is their best OL and their interior OL is very good in every aspect of the game.

Here's one thing to chew on though. "Sacksonville" had 3 sacks, just as many as that horrible NE Dline.

Last thought for now: Pederson didn't take his foot off the pedal until the vikings game was clearly, absolutely over. If Philly has the lead in the 4th, I don't think they will play conservatively on either side of the ball.

 

[sean10mm]

The Eagles relative lack of a pass rush seems like the big story nobody is talking about to me. Everybody talks up their DL rotation but they don't really generate sacks. Especially not on the road, which the Super Bowl basically is for both teams.

If we could contain the pass rushes of the Steelers and Jags I struggle to see why the Eagles are going to batter Brady into submission. And teams that can't do that are automatically in big trouble.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Last thought for now: Pederson didn't take his foot off the pedal until the vikings game was clearly, absolutely over. If Philly has the lead in the 4th, I don't think they will play conservatively on either side of the ball.

I don’t think Jacksonville took the foot off the gas either. When they were up 20-17 they were slinging the ball...most of those passes fell incomplete but they just didn’t run the ball to kill clock and punt it away. They tried to get first downs and prevent TB12 from getting the ball back. Case in point - the pass that Gilmore knocked away that probably saved the game for us.

 

[sb1]

They blew out Min with the big play. Foles: 10.7 YPA. I doubt that will be duplicated.

 

[patsinthesnow]

I wonder if the team would consider playing Dorsett over Hogan (he doesn’t look right) & make it a track meet in a dome?

Cooks
Dorsett
Amendola
Gronk
Lewis/White

That is a nasty dome offense.

 

[TomPatriot]

I don’t think Jacksonville took the foot off the gas either. When they were up 20-17 they were slinging the ball...most of those passes fell incomplete but they just didn’t run the ball to kill clock and punt it away. They tried to get first downs and prevent TB12 from getting the ball back. Case in point - the pass that Gilmore knocked away that probably saved the game for us.

You're right. I was primarily thinking about the defensive schemes. I thought the corners played less aggressively and the overall coverage scheme was conservative.

 

[ALP]

I wonder if the team would consider playing Dorsett over Hogan (he doesn’t look right) & make it a track meet in a dome?

Cooks
Dorsett
Amendola
Gronk
Lewis/White

That is a nasty dome offense.

Hogan is just as good deep as Cooks and certainly dorsett...

if we're going track team we will play all of cooks, dorsett and hogan, maybe switch them three out if theyre always running deep patterns

 

[jimnance]

I wonder if the team would consider playing Dorsett over Hogan (he doesn’t look right) & make it a track meet in a dome?

Cooks
Dorsett
Amendola
Gronk
Lewis/White

That is a nasty dome offense.

Yes it is and Mr Brady is off the chain in domes.

 

[mosi]

It is all about matchups. Philly shut down Atlanta last year and I knew they would do it again. The Saint's would have ripped Philly a new one, but Minnesota, no way. The Pats should watch the 2015 game again and again and again till they are so mad, they come out a blow the doors off Philly. Philly will be nervous and may make some big mistakes on special teams The Pats need to take advantage and go up big.

 

[TB12TheGoat]

Gronk, Lewis, White are a huge mismatch against their LB's

 

[chasa]

What is it that atlanta did to hold the eagles to 15 points vs. the vikings that let Nick foles do whatever he wanted?

Atlanta Showed up.

the vikings did not.

 

[Ring 6]

Zach Ertz will be a tough matchup, he's a good player. We all assume Chung will cover him. Chung has been good on TEs in the past but he will have trouble. Not sure how to contain him.

I'm also wondering about Alshon Jeffrey. I'm trying to think back to his Chicago days and him struggling. Has he just improved now overall? Whatever was causing him to mess up in Chicago, we need to try to exploit that.

For us on offense, in another threat, someone mentioned the Philly DBs being weak against the double move and deep passes. Maybe we can use that to our advantage and get Cooks/Hogan/Dorsett downfield.

Jeffrey caught 57 of 120 targets only averaged 13.8 ypc and had under 800 yards. That’s not good wr1 production at all but he did have 9 TDs. Having good post season with 9/10 targets for 146 and 2 TDs.

I like Chung on ertz and we will probably see McCourty on him too.

 

[BobDigital]

Offensive game plan/plan

The Patriots should look to run rarely. Just enough to keep them honest and make them respect your play action but that's all. See if you can get a tough yard vs them with maybe a early goal line run or QB sneak. Besides that this is a game where you throw 50 times. The Eagles have one of the best run Ds in the NFL and the Pats would be smart not to waste too many plays against such a run D if it doesn't work early.

The Eagles strengths are a deep DL rotation of quality players, 2 very good LBs and 1 very good CB and their solid SS. Their other CBs and safeties are pretty average and can be exploited. Also if they put a 3rd LB on the field that is a guy you can look to attack. Also as someone mentioned Kendricks is their only really quick LB. I expect a lot of Lewis/White/Burkhead for short gains.

Lots of Gronk. Jenkins as the SS will probably get the match up but he can't handle him alone and hasn't been as good as he was in past years. He should drag a LB underneath him to bracket and if not i'd take that match up all day.

When it comes to WRs it is an area we can win. They play a lot of off zone but play it pretty well and demand you hit the tight windows. Against man they aren't all that good either. I think Brady can do well vs that zone D and hit those windows. I'm not sure who will be put on Cooks. PFF has Peterson ranked as their best CB and I would agree from the little I've seen. Mills takes more snaps but no other CB takes more. Mills hasn't been that good this year. If he is on Cooks 1 on 1 I look to pick on that a lot. Probably will get some free PIs.

Something I noticed about their team is they do a ton of rotation on the defense and not just the DL.

This is a game of Brady getting the ball out fast, running the hurry up so they can't rotate as much as they would like and then picking apart zones. This D is a lot harder to play at their house than on the road. They played in Domes 2 times this year... vs Dallas they gave up 9 points and vs the Rams they gave up 28 offensive points. I don't know if they want to run any specific kind of plays more than any other team but i'm sure some things will pop up. I think this defense in a Dome on a neutral site can be exploited if the OL holds up well.

 

[BobDigital]

Defensive game plan/info

The first thing the Pats need to do is dare them to run. This rush attack hasn't been near as good under Foles. Without Wentz running and threatening to run their running game has turned fairly average. It won't kill you like their WRs can. Play 6 in the box a lot and see how it goes. They like to call a fair amount of run traps so the DTs will need to play great and hold their spots on those plays.

The Eagles strength is their OL and they will try to push the Pat DL around and will probably have a little success but we need to limit it. They don't pass block amazingly and are more of a good run blocking line. The Patriots shouldn't be afraid to pass rush.

It has been said the Eagles have a ton of weapons and this is true. That being said the 3 guys you need to worry about the most are Ertz, Agholor and Jeffrey. They are the key to their offense. If you limit them they will not have much success. Also it is worth noting since Foles has come in he has really favored a lot of short passes to Ajayi so that is the 4th guy I would be most worried about.

The question for the D will be how you limit these guys. You live with the rest.

On Jeffrey who is 6'4 230 clearly he is the guy you put Gilmore on. Agholor isn't small at 6'1 190 but he is the guy Butler guards. Ertz is the biggest issue of all. Chung and help is the best option. I'd say Rowe. He is 6'5 250 so hard to tackle for DBs but they will just have to manage.

Ertz despite his size doesn't seem all that powerful.

On Ajayi the LBs need to stay home and watch those passes and stop the run. I hate the idea of Van Noy or M. Flowers on Ajayi. I think he is too fast for either of them. It worked against Fournette but it won't work for the quick speedy Ajayi. If he goes up the seam a DB will need to put him up probably or we need to hope Foles screws up.

Foles himself is interesting. A hot and cold player and dangerous cause he loves to toss it deep when possible. His strength and weaknesses are interlinked. He doesn't give up on plays even when he should. His mechanics can break down at times. The DBs need to play back (especially on the RPO) and not let up the big chunks and make him drive the field like usual. A lot depends on how well he plays. I hope the D is aggressive with the pass rush but safe with the DB play.

 

[fightingirish595]

The Eagles relative lack of a pass rush seems like the big story nobody is talking about to me. Everybody talks up their DL rotation but they don't really generate sacks. Especially not on the road, which the Super Bowl basically is for both teams.

If we could contain the pass rushes of the Steelers and Jags I struggle to see why the Eagles are going to batter Brady into submission. And teams that can't do that are automatically in big trouble.

They do their job. Who cares if they do not get a lot of sacks. Do they hurry the QB?

They are right there near the top in Yards allowed overall and per play. They are near the top in points allowed per game and per drive. They get off the field on 3rd down.
They force a ton of turnovers.

They have a very good defense

 

[sean10mm]

They do their job. Who cares if they do not get a lot of sacks. Do they hurry the QB?

The only teams that have really shut down Brady have done it with an overwhelming pass rush that doesn't rely on blitzing all the time. 2007 and 2011 Giants, 2015 Broncos. The Eagles don't have that but everyone seems to be talking about them like they do.

This... is not a difficult concept?

 

[IllegalContact]

One big challenge . also re. game management . compared to JAX and other strong D-lines . is not only the quality but this time also the depth of Philly front line. Unlike Jags their rotation enables them to put pressure for 60 min.

On the other hand they are very thin at LB . although Bradham and Kendricks are doing a great job. There is less speed and quickness (outside Kendricks) so there should be space for underneath game, outside runs, screens..

They had a short game in NFCCG so it remains to be seen how it goes on a 4 hour chess game..
____

Enough challenges for Pats D as well. Deep and versatile RB committee, solid receivers and serious matchup challenge in Ertz.

Big task for Matty P farewell game . I hope he saved best for last and goes out with a bang!

The Eagles go with their front 4 DL for huge snap counts......vs the falcons which was a competitive game....at DT, Cox played 90% of the snaps, while Jernigan and Allen combined for 87% for the other position....at DE, Graham played 90% and Curry played 75% with Long and Barnett seeing spot play.

against the viking, 8 guys on defense still played at least 80% of the snaps.....given the blowout, they don't go that deep for much.

I'm seeing a defense that will punch itself out just like the last few