2nd round vs. same opponent IS tough

[FCB02062]

You are wrong.

I am right

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

If you are counting playoffs, Brady is 2-8 rematching the Dolphins and Broncos on the road. However, when the first (or only) matchup of the year against them is on the road he is 11-7.

 

[Ring 6]

I am right

Bill Belichick didn’t throw a game because he was afraid of the Steelers. If that were his nature we wouldn’t have any rings.

 

[Ring 6]

If you are counting playoffs, Brady is 2-8 rematching the Dolphins and Broncos on the road. However, when the first matchup of the year against them is on the road he is 11-7.

How can you be 11-7 in the first matchup and 2-8 in the second? There are 8 missing games.

 

[BTTA]

If the Pats beat the Bills 26 straight times, what are odds that they win the 27th game? PRETTY FRIGGIN GOOD.

Not necessarily. There are greater forces at work.
27 Club - Wikipedia

 

[Satchboogie3]

OH man, I know you are kidding but don't get me started with those kinds of people who think that way.

Every year when a playoff game features a matchup of divisional rivals in which one team went 2-0 during the regular season, indoubtedly there will be at least one analyst who confidently says......

" (insert 0-2 here) will win this game because it's tough to beat a team three times in one season."

Is it tough to beat one team three times in one season? Yes, it is (all things equal, a 12.5% chance of this happening), but that's not really the situation being presented here.

Instead, the probability question becomes, what are the odds one team wins all three GIVEN THAT THEY HAVE ALREADY WON THE FIRST TWO?

All things being equal, the probability of winning all three is 50%. But the reality is that the teams probably aren't equal, and the 2-0 team is 2-0 because they are better. So the odds would actually be greater than 50% for them to win the third game.


Let me use a more drastic example to make my point.

If the Pats beat the Bills 26 straight times, what are odds that they win the 27th game? PRETTY FRIGGIN GOOD.

But you'll have that one misinformed, dope analyst say "no, I'm taking the Bills because it's tough to beat a team 27 straight times"

That isnt how probability works. Past events have no bearing on future events (strictly with respect to probablity). Just because you flip 25 straight heads doesnt magically improve the odds of flipping tails next... Its still 50/50.

 

[brdmaverick]

That isnt how probability works. Past events have no bearing on future events (strictly with respect to probablity). Just because you flip 25 straight heads doesnt magically improve the odds of flipping tails next... Its still 50/50.

You need to reread my post. Yes, I understand that 'all things being equal' that the odds of winning a third game (or 27th) GIVEN that you won the first two (or 26) is 50% IF ALL THINGS ARE EQUAL. But I think it's logical to come to the conclusion that a team that won 26 straight times isn't just insanely lucky, but better, and therefore all things aren't equal.

So let's work with my example again..........if the Pats beat the Bills 26 straight times and were playing a 27th time, you could probably reach one of two conclusions.......

1.) 50% odds of victory in the next game, assuming the teams were equal. Keep in mind if the teams were equal the odds of flipping heads (or Pats) 26 straight times would be 0.00000015%

OR

2.) The Pats are a better team. If they are a better team, then their odds of winning that 27th game are better than 50% on account that things AREN'T equal (and instead favor the better team)

 

[patchick]

You need to reread my post. Yes, I understand that 'all things being equal' that the odds of winning a third game (or 27th) GIVEN that you won the first two (or 26) is 50% IF ALL THINGS ARE EQUAL. But I think it's logical to come to the conclusion that a team that won 26 straight times isn't just insanely lucky, but better, and therefore all things aren't equal.

Yep...to put it in more traditional probability terms, the chance of rolling a 12 with a pair of fair dice is 1 in 36. So let's suppose you've just rolled a pair of dice ten times and come up 12 every single time. What are the odds of getting a 12 on your next roll?

The answer is "really high," because you're presumably rolling loaded dice!

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

How can you be 11-7 in the first matchup and 2-8 in the second? There are 8 missing games.

I just edited the post. If the first (or only) matchup of the year....

 

[Ring 6]

I just edited the post. If the first (or only) matchup of the year....

But that devalues the stat. Winning or losing in a year where you meet once is irrelevant to whether you do better or worse in a rematch. Those only matchups should be eliminated. Home/away should also be broken out.

 

[TruthSeeker]

I think it makes a lot of sense that the 2nd game is tougher than the first.

The Patriots coaching advantage is at its best when both of these are true:
1) there is film on the opponent
2) the opponent is not familiar with Patriots tendencies by having played them

There are several reasons the Patriots tend to lose early season games.
- they don't have recent film on their opponents
- they haven't gelled into the team that they will (as more time allows the Patriot coaches do a better job coaching than other teams)
- both teams are at or near full strength; the Patriots compensate for injuries much better than the typical opponent

However, late season games are more likely to be lost because the coaching advantage has been minimized. This happens when the other coaches understand from experience how to attack and defend the Patriots schemes.

In general, division games don't have many surprises because there are 2 every year. That being said, the first of these games is much more likely to have surprises than the second. Miami did this back on 9/21/08 (after finishing 1-15 in '07) with the wildcat winning 38-13, all 5 TDs coming out of the wildcat formation. The Patriots won the rematch 48-28. In this case, the coaching advantage for Miami was minimized in the rematch. Typically, it's the Patriots that have the coaching advantage but not as much in the rematch.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

But that devalues the stat. Winning or losing in a year where you meet once is irrelevant to whether you do better or worse in a rematch. Those only matchups should be eliminated. Home/away should also be broken out.

Lol. AJ special.

 

[Ring 6]

Lol. AJ special.

How do games against teams you play once mean anything in determining if you play better or worse in rematches? Please explain that one to me.