2nd round vs. same opponent IS tough

[patchick]

Interesting stat buried in a muddled article today:

The Belichick Patriots have a 50-24 (.676) record in repeat meetings vs. the same opponent in a single season, which looks good but is significantly below their overall .743 winning percentage. I was a little surprised since they're generally such a strong second-half team, both in terms of games and seasons.

Possible reasons that come to mind:

1. Opponents have a chance to address weak points exposed by the Pats' game plan in game 1
2. The stat could be skewed by the number of those names that were playoff games, meaning the average opponent is stronger.
3. ?

 

[jimnance]

Interesting stat buried in a muddled article today:

The Belichick Patriots have a 50-24 (.676) record in repeat meetings vs. the same opponent in a single season, which looks good but is significantly below their overall .743 winning percentage. I was a little surprised since they're generally such a strong second-half team, both in terms of games and seasons.

Possible reasons that come to mind:

1. Opponents have a chance to address weak points exposed by the Pats' game plan in game 1
2. The stat could be skewed by the number of those names that were playoff games, meaning the average opponent is stronger.
3. ?

#3 has to be vs. division opponents after Pats have clinched everything they could and game is meaningless.

 

[patchick]

#3 has to be vs. division opponents after Pats have clinched everything they could and game is meaningless.

Great point, I should have considered the game 16 factor. And of course, none of the possibilities are mutually exclusive.

 

[TinhWoodhead]

“Hard to beat a team twice in the NFL”

 

[XLIX]

Interesting stat buried in a muddled article today:

The Belichick Patriots have a 50-24 (.676) record in repeat meetings vs. the same opponent in a single season, which looks good but is significantly below their overall .743 winning percentage. I was a little surprised since they're generally such a strong second-half team, both in terms of games and seasons.

Possible reasons that come to mind:

1. Opponents have a chance to address weak points exposed by the Pats' game plan in game 1
2. The stat could be skewed by the number of those names that were playoff games, meaning the average opponent is stronger.
3. ?

I think division games are always tough and if you’re playing a “second game” then it has to be against a division foe or, as you noted above, in the playoffs.

Although I do think it’s funny how a .676 winning percentage - which most teams would kill for - is below the norm here in NE.

 

[NashuaPats]

A couple of weeks ago against Miami, the Pats basically shut down their offense in the middle of the third quarter. I don't think they wanted to show Miami anything more than they needed to. That should help for the second meeting.

 

[Pats1989]

I think division games in general are tougher due to the familiarity. Furthermore, many of those repeat matches are on the road.

 

[patchick]

I think division games are always tough and if you’re playing a “second game” then it has to be against a division foe or, as you noted above, in the playoffs.

Here's a mindbender...what if it's not that second meetings are hard because they're against division opponents, but division opponents are hard because you meet them twice?

 

[dannydyn]

That's ok... the Dolphins are thinking.... "****, we have to play the Pats again"

 

[oldrover]

This game in particular...

Two weeks after the first meeting...

First meeting at home, this one on the road...

In Miami, where the Pats have had struggles even in the BB/Brady era...

BUT... here's the counterbalancing factor:



https://imgflip.com/memegenerator

 

[maineman209]

1. Opponents have a chance to address weak points exposed by the Pats' game plan in game 1

So, basically, if the Bills, Jets and 'Fins could each play 3-4 games a season against the Pats, by the end of the 4th meeting, they might have figured out how to be decent teams?

Good thing the Pats only play them twice, then, giving them an entire off-season to completely forget/ignore the lessons they learned.

 

[patchick]

Another thought on division opponents...

Consider that the top 3 teams in the AFCN have all had the same head coaches for a decade now. Talk about familiarity! That continuity means the coaching staffs know each others' schemes and tendencies inside and out. Meanwhile the AFCE outside of Foxboro has been a nonstop coaching carousel during the BB era.

That may be an important side benefit of the Pats' dominance of their division. They keep getting opposing coaches fired, which means that division rivals don't get to build up the kind of familiarity that can increase parity.

 

[sb1]

Normally it would be tempting to think this could be a loss this week with a much bigger game next week and the Dolphins already having seen the Patriots, and no Gronk this game... but I think after the pile on and attacks from the media about the Gronk incident - I think the Pats have plenty of motivation to kick the snot out of the Dolphins right in front of their fans.

 

[FCB02062]

And they lost to Miami on purpose the last game of 06 I think to avoid Pittsburgh in the playoffs and faced Jacksonville

 

[Oswlek]

I'm curious, how has NE done in the front leg of these encounters?

 

[tasmlab]

#3 has to be vs. division opponents after Pats have clinched everything they could and game is meaningless.

That would easily make the .07 difference between the two metrics.

Not even looking at their numbers, I bet the same second game stats for NYJ, MIA and BUF are atrocious.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Interesting stat buried in a muddled article today:

The Belichick Patriots have a 50-24 (.676) record in repeat meetings vs. the same opponent in a single season, which looks good but is significantly below their overall .743 winning percentage. I was a little surprised since they're generally such a strong second-half team, both in terms of games and seasons.

Possible reasons that come to mind:

1. Opponents have a chance to address weak points exposed by the Pats' game plan in game 1
2. The stat could be skewed by the number of those names that were playoff games, meaning the average opponent is stronger.
3. ?

Good analysis. This confirms what I've generally noticed by observation. In general, they are good against teams the second time around but not the dominant team that bulldozes the league. I think point 2 has a lot to do with it.

 

[Ring 6]

Interesting stat buried in a muddled article today:

The Belichick Patriots have a 50-24 (.676) record in repeat meetings vs. the same opponent in a single season, which looks good but is significantly below their overall .743 winning percentage. I was a little surprised since they're generally such a strong second-half team, both in terms of games and seasons.

Possible reasons that come to mind:

1. Opponents have a chance to address weak points exposed by the Pats' game plan in game 1
2. The stat could be skewed by the number of those names that were playoff games, meaning the average opponent is stronger.
3. ?

3) the number us significantly skewed by week 17 division games against teams that wouldn’t otherwise beat us when the patriots have nothing to play for and rest starters.
5 such games is the difference between .676 and .743 and I can think of 4 off the top of my head.

 

[Ring 6]

And they lost to Miami on purpose the last game of 06 I think to avoid Pittsburgh in the playoffs and faced Jacksonville

No they didn’t.

 

[Ring 6]

Also a factor is that the second Miami is usually there and of all division opponents we have done worse in Miami