Can We Settle Down Regarding The Defense?

[Huckleberry1]

Not sure you can settle down when you have the 32nd ranked defense in the NFL until you start to see some clear improvement.

When they start playing to their potential then people will settle down, when you write down the names the defense doesn't seem that bad but games are playing on the field and it's been horrible so far.

I'm still expecting it to get better than what it has been though cause there's zero chance this team does anything if the defense is going to play at week 1-5 level.

I think they have played poorly overall but the hyperventilating over early season style points is foolish. IMO the changes to the CBA regarding practices has turned September into the real preseason, and the proof is in the overall play of the league, which is as sketchy as I have ever seen it. Only two teams have played good football to this point, KC and Philly, and one of them laid an egg at home against a mediocre Pittsburgh team yesterday. And while it’s always nice to see a strong start and good football every week it’s much better to build as the season goes and peak when the playoffs roll around. KC looked unbeatable in September but that isn’t going to mean a thing if they go one and done in January, and their fans should be worried about that happening yet again given their history. So while every game matters and a slow start is tough to take it’s what happens after Thanksgiving that always matters most. Patriot fans more than most others should understand that but some apparently never learn.

As far as the Patriots go i always wait until November to start evaluating them, but that doesn’t mean some of the criticism and concern isn’t warranted, as it is, but imo the snap judgements and definitive proclamations aren’t. I think everyone expected the secondary to dominate from the first snap, but much like 2014 it’s going to take time for them to come together as a unit, and I think they will be the strength of the defense when all is said and done. The real concern is with the front 7, which doesn’t seem to be able to generate any pressure at all without scheming it up, and they struggle mightily with mobile quarterbacks. It’s going to up to Belichick and Patricia to figure out how to get the most out of what they have, but if any coaches have earned that trust they have. However if they lose Hightower or Flowers they are going to be in real trouble. Hopefully Belichick and Caserio are going to be able to make in season moves to bolster the defense, just as they did in 2024, when they rebuilt the front seven in the fly. We’ll see?

On offense losing Edelman really threw them off balance, and imo they still haven’t figured out who they are. The offensive line has gotten most of the blame but I think the move to a more vertical offense has caused Brady to hold the ball too long too often, and that’s going to lead to more pressure, more sacks, and more beatings. However if yesterday is any indication then Dion Lewis is going to become central to their plans going forward, and that should open up the offense for everyone, as he’s the most diverse back they have. Next week will be an interesting test for them as they are going to have to control the ball, the clock, and the game against the Falcons. I want to see them effectively operate their game plan against Atlanta, and to go vertical when the opportunities arise and not as the core of their offense.

Ultimately coaching and depth really matter if you are going to be a championship team, and the Patriots are strong in both respects. They have managed their injuries pretty well so far and I think they can continue that going forward. That may be overly optimistic but imo they have earned that through years of success in the second half of seasons where we have expressed similar concerns.

 

[SalemPats]

Nope. It creates pressure. Just because it isn't a sack doesn't mean it's not pressure

I thought McCown had a lot of time out there. I know we don't like to blitz like some other teams and would rather have 6 in coverage, but we need to improve in that aspect

 

[Trycked]

At this point, I'm very optimistic about this defense. Take out the all the home games, the defense has allowed: 20, 14, 17 points on the road. Since I'm not into FF, I don't really care how many yards the defense gives up. Let's compare this with some other "top" defensive teams' road games:

NE: won 20 @ NO, won 14 @TB, won 17 @ NYJ
vs
DEN: loss 26 @ BUF (WTH, they've had only one road game so far???)
BUF: loss 9 @ PAN, won 23 @ FAL, loss 20 @ BEN
KC: won 27 @ NE, won 10 @ CHR, won 34 @ HOU
PIT: won 18 @ CLE, loss 23 @ CHI, loss 30 @ JAG
BAL: won 0 @ BEN, won 17 @ OAK
PHI: won 17 @ RED, loss 27 @ KC, won 24 @ CHR, won 23 @ PAN
----
So basically, not too shabby. That's not to say the Pats don't need improvement, I still feel it's the DL (not the secondary) that needs to be shored up in case Brown or Flowers goes down, but at this point it may be too late to bring in someone new.

So lets now address the issue with the home games. Like Belichick says after a loss, everyone is to blame, himself, the coaches, the players. Welp, everyone also includes the FANS. WTH guys, put the beer down and do some more cheering!

 

[p8ryts]

The defense has a long way to go. The season has a long way to go. As always, we will have players coming in and out because of health issues. However, it does seem that we should expect improvement in all units as the season progresses.

DL
There is an issue at DT. For now, we seem to have only Brown and Guy. Four is usually the "right" number. Perhaps Branch will improve. Perhaps, Valentine will be back. Perhaps, we'll add a backup player.
DE is fine with Flowers, Wise, Marsh, and occasionally Hightower, with Grissom as an emergency backup. Guy also plays some 3-4 DE.

LB
It is good to see Hightower back at LB for most downs. We usually have two linebackers: Hightower and Van Noy. We also have Roberts on running downs. We have Marquise Flowers as an emergency backup. Perhaps, McClellan will be back. In any case, I could see us adding a LB to replace Harris, or perhaps belichick sees something that we don't in Harris, and is keeping him out because he is simply at the end of the depth chart.
DB
It seems that Patricia is getting this worked out. We may not be able to identify all the formations, but we can see that the secondary is under better control. Gilmore indicated that he covered one player for most of the game. Some said that Butler did also. The rest played zone. We may see something new each week. However, we have seven defensive backs that we can count on (when Rowe is healthy), plus some STers (Ebner, King, Richards and Bademosi).

BOTTOM LINE
Branch and Harris are question marks. I would think that they will improve or be replaced. The defense should be average in a few weeks, and better than that for the end of the season and playoffs.

As a fan since 1963, I am the King of Rationalization. I agree with you. I think Marsh is the equivalent of Sheard or Long. Long redeemed himself with the holding penalty in the Super Bowl but the reality was he was playing that much near the end of the season. Sheard was up and down and at this time of last year was left home. I think Flowers, Marsh, Wise, Hightower and Van Noy can provide adequate pressure. I think many times its the way the defense is called. Wise has potential but still makes mistakes overrunning the pocket not maintaining outside contain but he shows potential. We have been ok against the run. Branch will come around, did ok yesterday, Brown, Guy and Butler can do the job. So I think the defensive line will continue to jell and be effective.
Linebackers are a problem on covering backs. I can't blame Roberts for not covering ASJ on the TD. The defensive scheme that gives him that responsibility is flawed just as in the KC game where Marsh was asked to cover Hunt after being in camp a week. Van Noy and Hightower are good. I love Roberts but they need improvement over him. Will McClellin improve any of this, I don't know?
Secondary is an enigma. I think the players are good. I was never a McCourty fan but he has been very good so far. Harmon is ok, Chung has been good the past two games. Gilmore is still a ? and Butler is inconsistent, great one play, where was he on the next play. I still maintain any defense that has Jordan Richards on the field is suspect but he did actually make a good tackle yesterday.
So, like you, I believe the players are there to have an effective defense. I'm questioning the coaching and scheme, blasphemy, I know. Players and plays confuse me. That play at the end of the game where McKown under pressure threw a wounded duck down the right sideline that I thought would be intercepted to Anderson open by 10 yards. Jeesus, what the hell happened on that play.
Anyway, the workings are there for a team defense and offense and BB is the best at constructing a team so I think he will get it going.

 

[mgteich]

FRONT SEVEN
We need to understand that this is almost a complete change of characters, and roles. Also, Hightower is coming back from injury, and Valentine is still out. IMHO, they are playing reasonably well, and should continue to improve, as Patricia's defenses always do. Folks have criticized Belichick's acquisitions. ?????
Guy and Marsh have looked fine. Even special teamer Flowers was able to fill in. As far as the rooks from the draft and UDFA, Wise and Butler have done very well.

Yes, having McClellan back should help after the break, and Valentine a couple of weeks later (less important, except as much needed injury protection).

I agree that LB coverage has been a problem for this group. Obviously, this is nothing new for the team. Posters were right in hoping that Belichick would acquire a LB in the offseason to meet this need.

THE ONE REAL "ISSUE"
Jones has done OK replacing Coleman, although just OK; he'll get better we hope. Obviously, Belichick made a HUGE acquisition in acquiring Bademosi, a fine special teamer and backup outside corner. It is always difficult to deal with 2 injuries at the same position. Belichick's approach is "next man up", rather than changing the defense because of the injury. [This way, only one position changes, plus the help needed for that player]. Bademosi was the answer.
============
The ONE issue is replacing Ryan with Gilmore, and getting near the same results. That hasn't happened yet.

The safeties have been asked to take different roles to accommodate the change. To be clear, we have 3 excellent safeties who work well as a unit. We have a 4th that Belichick has chosen as his 4th safety. While I don't see his value and improvement, I have learned to not expect much position play from a 4th safety, as long as he is solid special teams contributor. The safeties haven't adapted all that well.

The BOTTOM LINE is that Patricia needs to continue to integrate Gilmore into the defense. The importance of not having a healthy Rowe has made the situation worse than it might be. One issue [that I can't solve] is the roles of our 3 top corners. When Butler, Gilmore and Rowe are out there, WHO is the best choice to play inside? If Gilmore were playing well enough, I guess that we would simply sit Rowe and have Jones play inside. Maybe that's the answer, with the defense being a bit more vanilla.
===========

As a fan since 1963, I am the King of Rationalization. I agree with you. I think Marsh is the equivalent of Sheard or Long. Long redeemed himself with the holding penalty in the Super Bowl but the reality was he was playing that much near the end of the season. Sheard was up and down and at this time of last year was left home. I think Flowers, Marsh, Wise, Hightower and Van Noy can provide adequate pressure. I think many times its the way the defense is called. Wise has potential but still makes mistakes overrunning the pocket not maintaining outside contain but he shows potential. We have been ok against the run. Branch will come around, did ok yesterday, Brown, Guy and Butler can do the job. So I think the defensive line will continue to jell and be effective.
Linebackers are a problem on covering backs. I can't blame Roberts for not covering ASJ on the TD. The defensive scheme that gives him that responsibility is flawed just as in the KC game where Marsh was asked to cover Hunt after being in camp a week. Van Noy and Hightower are good. I love Roberts but they need improvement over him. Will McClellin improve any of this, I don't know?
Secondary is an enigma. I think the players are good. I was never a McCourty fan but he has been very good so far. Harmon is ok, Chung has been good the past two games. Gilmore is still a ? and Butler is inconsistent, great one play, where was he on the next play. I still maintain any defense that has Jordan Richards on the field is suspect but he did actually make a good tackle yesterday.
So, like you, I believe the players are there to have an effective defense. I'm questioning the coaching and scheme, blasphemy, I know. Players and plays confuse me. That play at the end of the game where McKown under pressure threw a wounded duck down the right sideline that I thought would be intercepted to Anderson open by 10 yards. Jeesus, what the hell happened on that play.
Anyway, the workings are there for a team defense and offense and BB is the best at constructing a team so I think he will get it going.

 

[maineman209]

Long redeemed himself with the holding penalty in the Super Bowl but the reality was he was (n't) playing that much near the end of the season.

Long averaged about 70% of the defensive snaps in the first 8 weeks and about 60% in the second 8 weeks (59% in week 17). Snaps for both Nink and Sheard dropped off a lot more than that, while snaps for Flowers and Valentine jumped dramatically. McClellin's defensive snaps also increased.

 

[Uptown]

View from Above: We're so close, maybe we can't see it?

 

[SHOWTIME15]

this sunday is a big test. if the defense can step up against this high powered falcons offense, then we can say it has turned the corner.

 

[TinhWoodhead]

as long as they keep their opponents under 20pts like the last 2 games im

 

[maineman209]

https://twitter.com/jeffphowe/status/919960899007471619
Interesting to note that Bademosi and Jon Jones were targeted only twice each while Butler was targeted 8 times.

This could be due to Butler covering McCown's preferred target more than Jones and Bademosi did. OTOH, it could also be that the coverage by Bademosi and Jones (probably with more safety help than Butler had) was good enough to dissuade McCown from throwing in their direction.

 

[Ring 6]

Interesting to note that Bademosi and Jon Jones were targeted only twice each while Butler was targeted 8 times.

This could be due to Butler covering McCown's preferred target more than Jones and Bademosi did. OTOH, it could also be that the coverage by Bademosi and Jones (probably with more safety help than Butler had) was good enough to dissuade McCown from throwing in their direction.

How useful are these numbers when he only counts 22 of 47 passes?
There are 229 passing yards unaccounted for.

 

[long distance]

View from Above: We're so close, maybe we can't see it?

Just came to post this as well.

quote:

It is possible this team isn't as far away from being back to "Patriots' norm" as we seem to believe it is?
Before you scoff, consider this - after the New York Jets scored a touchdown in the second quarter of Sunday's game to give them a 14-0 lead, something remarkable happened. The defense held the Jets' offense on the following nine possessions to:

Punt, punt, punt, interception, halftime, interception, fumble, field goal, ball over on downs.

And ask yourself this question. Doesn't this series of possessions appear to be a level of performance coming from a championship caliber defense, or at the least, appear to be more toward what Patriot defenses have produced in recent seasons?
____

People should also ask themselves to which D standard are they comparing this defence? If its their own expectations its a futile task. Is it last years #1 D? There were very similar rants about it same time last year here and in media and lots of reshuffling from BB&co until much later in the season.. Is it the championship D? Its only week 6 .. Is it the best D's in the league? Things are changing so quickly and every D is up and down.. etc etc
____

Can't remember who of the D players it was that said yesterday - wait till we play for 60 minutes (then its gonna be fun or something like that).
____

There are clear signs (at least to me) things on D are improving. Its not just about schemes, individual improvements, health .. its also about group dynamics - for two straight weeks one could see improvement in communication, team effort, energy, support . and that makes the D less vulnerable to individual mistakes and also a bit faster..

Here from Harmon: Duron Harmon 10/16: 'Our communication is at a better level now'
____

Was just re-watching the 1st quarter and even there the D looked solid most of the time. McCown's run for 1st down is on a play call IMO that underestimated his running ability. The big play to Kerley for 30 yds was just perfect play and execution by NYJ O. 4-man pass rush was good (A.Butler got to McCown's ankles but he was still able to make a great throw), JJ's coverage was also good and he made contested play for the ball at the end.

BTW - Branch also showed signs of life which was big under the radar story looking forward..
____

All in all - a little watching of the tape before judgementals wouldn't hurt..

 

[Ring 6]

FRONT SEVEN
We need to understand that this is almost a complete change of characters, and roles. Also, Hightower is coming back from injury, and Valentine is still out. IMHO, they are playing reasonably well, and should continue to improve, as Patricia's defenses always do. Folks have criticized Belichick's acquisitions. ?????
Guy and Marsh have looked fine. Even special teamer Flowers was able to fill in. As far as the rooks from the draft and UDFA, Wise and Butler have done very well.

How have Guy and Marsh "looked fine". Our D was a dumpster fire for 4 games. Guy is getting a lot of reps on a shaky run D (worst BB has fielded in many years). Marsh looks like a total non-factor. What exactly do you see about him that is 'fine'. He is now a pass rush specialist and he isn't sniffing the QB. Hopefully he improves, but it has not been 'fine'.

Yes, having McClellan back should help after the break, and Valentine a couple of weeks later (less important, except as much needed injury protection).

No certainty they are coming back.

I

agree that LB coverage has been a problem for this group. Obviously, this is nothing new for the team. Posters were right in hoping that Belichick would acquire a LB in the offseason to meet this need.

THE ONE REAL "ISSUE"
Jones has done OK replacing Coleman, although just OK; he'll get better we hope. Obviously, Belichick made a HUGE acquisition in acquiring Bademosi, a fine special teamer and backup outside corner. It is always difficult to deal with 2 injuries at the same position. Belichick's approach is "next man up", rather than changing the defense because of the injury. [This way, only one position changes, plus the help needed for that player]. Bademosi was the answer.
============
The ONE issue is replacing Ryan with Gilmore, and getting near the same results. That hasn't happened yet.

The safeties have been asked to take different roles to accommodate the change.

The safety role changes arent about the corners. They are about the safeties.

To be clear, we have 3 excellent safeties who work well as a unit. We have a 4th that Belichick has chosen as his 4th safety. While I don't see his value and improvement, I have learned to not expect much position play from a 4th safety, as long as he is solid special teams contributor. The safeties haven't adapted all that well.

The BOTTOM LINE is that Patricia needs to continue to integrate Gilmore into the defense. The importance of not having a healthy Rowe has made the situation worse than it might be. One issue [that I can't solve] is the roles of our 3 top corners. When Butler, Gilmore and Rowe are out there, WHO is the best choice to play inside? If Gilmore were playing well enough, I guess that we would simply sit Rowe and have Jones play inside. Maybe that's the answer, with the defense being a bit more vanilla.
===========

Not sure how you 'integrate' someone more than playing every snap.
The 3 corners are going to be Gilmore Butler and Rowe. There is no need to be vanilla, they just have to not play different defenses on the same snap, which is really unrelated to the complexity of the call

 

[mgteich]

Yes, we need to wait for better numbers.

I do think that that it was impressive that Patricia was able to defend with Bademosi having a major role.

Unfortunately, I would think that Ryan and his receivers will be much more of a challenge.

How useful are these numbers when he only counts 22 of 47 passes?
There are 229 passing yards unaccounted for.

 

[supafly]

I think Marsh is the equivalent of Sheard or Long.

Fine post. Can't say that I agree with this incredibly optimistic statement, but let's hope that he continues to progress.

In the meantime, can I hire you for some motivational speaking engagements?

 

[Mack Herron]

But yards shmards, right?

 

[Ring 6]

Plus the first defense in NFL history to allow 6 straight 300-yard passing games. But yards shmards, right?

Those yards added up to 4-2. We will see how many yards they allow going forward and what impact they have on wins and losses.

 

[Mack Herron]

Those yards added up to 4-2. We will see how many yards they allow going forward and what impact they have on wins and losses.

I hope and expect them to improve (how could they not?). But I am far from comfortable with the performance to date.

 

[Ring 6]

I hope and expect them to improve (how could they not?). But I am far from comfortable with the performance to date.

I'm not comfortable with 4-2. But that's the result.
The statistics so far will not have any impact on the next 10 games and the post season.
If they continue to play like this (6 weeks in total because the last 2 have been much better) you are looking at 10-6 or 11-5. If they improve the result will be better. But whatever it is it will be based upon the plays they make in those games not the ones they made in the first six.

Secondly football isn't a game that should be analyzed by statistics. At least with respect to winning or losing games.

 

[supafly]

I hope and expect them to improve (how could they not?). But I am far from comfortable with the performance to date.

The thing that concerns me the most about the yards allowed is that we're giving up an average of -28 yards each game. The offense averages 412, while the defense gives up 440.

While the defense has looked better lately, we've seen only one game that wasn't a loss or a last second nail biter, out of 6 games. We'll know a lot more about what kind of team they are after another 4-5 games.