What is Rex Burkhead’s role going to be?

[supafly]

While I expect Lewis to get a good number of KO returns and Amendola to get a good number of inside the 20/fair catch/up man punt returns, has anyone given serious consideration to the idea of Burkhead fielding some punts?

For crying out loud, not a day goes by that we don't hear about his Don Beebe-like ST skills.

 

[RobertWeathers]

This year I expect Rex to see about 200 ST snaps and about 300 snaps on offense.

Assuming 100% health of the backfield, of those 300 snaps I expect 50-75 carries carries and 20 or so catches.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Lewis has fewer yards after contact because he is making tacklers miss

White is 95% receiver.

White is actually more 2:1. For every two pass targets he'll rush it once.

In 2015, Lewis was 1:1 but last year he was 1:3 pass target/rush.

I suspect they'll try to be more unpredictable and strive to be more 1:1 with both.

 

[PatsFan2]

One thing when you watch Burkhead is how effective he is between the Tackles. Rex plays Bigger than his actual size. With the Defense loading up most times for the pass the draw is going to be always available thus Rex's running style will be ideal. He's already an excellent receiver.

 

[maineman209]

This year I expect Rex to see about 200 ST snaps and about 300 snaps on offense.

Assuming 100% health of the backfield, of those 300 snaps I expect 50-75 carries carries and 20 or so catches.

I'd say that your projections for Burkhead's carries/targets percentages on 300 offensive snaps are pretty much spot on. However, I still disagree about his likely ST snaps.

If Burkhead sees 300 snaps (19/game) as a regular, skill-position contributor on offense, I'd say he's far more likely to see only about 80-100 ST snaps (5-7/game), with a maximum of about 150 (9/game), and almost certainly on blocking units only - no coverage/tackling units.

First of all, these ST projections for Burkhead would match league-wide SOP usage of offensive skill players on ST, and actually exceed what the Pats have typically done, since snap-tracking began. Secondly, unless there's an injury to one or more ST specialists, it really won't be necessary for Burkhead to do more than 5-7 ST snaps/game, and probably not even that much.

If Burkhead gets up to 200 or more ST snaps for the season, that would mean he'd participated in at least one coverage/tackling unit and likely mean that his primary usage had been on ST rather than on offense, where he'd be getting only "token" snaps (7 of fewer/game). In that case, the only way he ends up with 300 offensive snaps on top of those 200 ST snaps for the season is if one or more of the other RBs is injured for several consecutive games - during which period his ST snaps/game would drop dramatically (possibly to zero) as his offensive participation increased.

Again, if you look at the game-by-game snaps counts, this was Burkhead's usage pattern in Cinci. It's been the Pats usage pattern with Bolden. And it's the typical usage pattern with offensive skill players for all the other teams in the league.

 

[maineman209]

White is actually more 2:1. For every two pass targets he'll rush it once.

In 2015, Lewis was 1:1 but last year he was 1:3 pass target/rush.

I suspect they'll try to be more unpredictable and strive to be more 1:1 with both.

With the absence of Edelman and the relative surplus of receiving RBs, I think it's possible that Lewis' targets:carries ratio may go up to more like 2:1, with Lewis taking more snaps than ever lined up in the slot.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I'd say that your projections for Burkhead's carries/targets percentages on 300 offensive snaps are pretty much spot on. However, I still disagree about his likely ST snaps.

If Burkhead sees 300 snaps (19/game) as a regular, skill-position contributor on offense, I'd say he's far more likely to see only about 80-100 ST snaps (5-7/game), with a maximum of about 150 (9/game), and almost certainly on blocking units only - no coverage/tackling units.

First of all, these ST projections for Burkhead would match league-wide SOP usage of offensive skill players on ST, and actually exceed what the Pats have typically done, since snap-tracking began. Secondly, unless there's an injury to one or more ST specialists, it really won't be necessary for Burkhead to do more than 5-7 ST snaps/game, and probably not even that much.

If Burkhead gets up to 200 or more ST snaps for the season, that would mean he'd participated in at least one coverage/tackling unit and likely mean that his primary usage had been on ST rather than on offense, where he'd be getting only "token" snaps (7 of fewer/game). In that case, the only way he ends up with 300 offensive snaps on top of those 200 ST snaps for the season is if one or more of the other RBs is injured for several consecutive games - during which period his ST snaps/game would drop dramatically (possibly to zero) as his offensive participation increased.

Again, if you look at the game-by-game snaps counts, this was Burkhead's usage pattern in Cinci. It's been the Pats usage pattern with Bolden. And it's the typical usage pattern with offensive skill players for all the other teams in the league.

It'll be interesting to see how it all plays out. My thinking is they'll love him on ST as he's a good tackler. On the other hand they have a bunch of those types now. In theory, because of that he'll play less on ST and more on O.

I'm trying to find a balance with him. Not sure what that is but it seemed the 200/300 ST/O count seemed reasonable. Maybe it's high. I dunna know.

 

[Simpelton]

Lewis has fewer yards after contact because he is making tacklers miss

White is 95% receiver.

With Tom Brady as a quarterback a receiving back can be incredibly valuable just watch the Superbowl if you don't believe me. For as long as Tom Brady is our quarterback, that receiving back role is going to come up in big moments.

As for Rex Burkhead I see him as a bit of a roving jack of all trades. He's the running back whose role is the least obvious in the running game and that means that Belichick is going to be free to put him wherever he needs him

He has served as a slot receiver as I understand it. I expected to show up on special teams. I personally predict that he will be featuring at least a few times in the punt return game. Bill Belichick loves players that he can use in many different roles and Rex Burkhead is exactly that kind of guy. Expect him to show up all over the place this year

 

[IllegalContact]

Lewis has fewer yards after contact because he is making tacklers miss

White is 95% receiver.

Lewis has fewer yards after contact because he goes down instantly even when a DB hand tackles him

 

[Sicilian]

Burkhead seems to be a player who can contribute on all four downs, but won't be a four-down player. I'm guessing we're going to see him in a lot of different roles, unless other injuries force him to fill in permanently at one.

 

[Deus Irae]

What is Rex Burkhead’s role going to be?

 

[Deus Irae]

White is actually more 2:1. For every two pass targets he'll rush it once.

In 2015, Lewis was 1:1 but last year he was 1:3 pass target/rush.

I suspect they'll try to be more unpredictable and strive to be more 1:1 with both.

Using White at a 1:1 ratio is likely to lead to a lot of lost downs for the Patriots, since he still hasn't demonstrated the ability to run at the NFL level.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Using White at a 1:1 ratio is likely to lead to a lot of lost downs for the Patriots, since he still hasn't demonstrated the ability to run at the NFL level.

I think White is improved but with Gillislee, Burkhead and DLew, hes still the 4th best runner in the backfield.

Also something else I overlooked.

With JE11 out, a good chunk of those 1st down looks are most likely going to White.

Even though I think the coaching staff would like to see that 1:1 ratio, because of the JE11 loss, we might see a Larry Centers kind of year out of him (80 catches)

 

[Nunchucks]

I think White is improved but with Gillislee, Burkhead and DLew, hes still the 4th best runner in the backfield.

Also something else I overlooked.

With JE11 out, a good chunk of those 1st down looks are most likely going to White.

Even though I think the coaching staff would like to see that 1:1 ratio, because of the JE11 loss, we might see a Larry Centers kind of year out of him (80 catches)

I think you will see Burkhead in when the Patriots want to run or pass on early downs. Lewis is a dynamic change of pace RB. White is the 3rd down back or hurry up back.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

Blount was more like a French Army knife:

 

[Simpelton]

One big advantage of Burkhead as opposed to some of the other backs is you won't necessarily know what he's on the field to do. Makes defensive preparation a bit harder

 

[RobertWeathers]

I think you will see Burkhead in when the Patriots want to run or pass on early downs. Lewis is a dynamic change of pace RB. White is the 3rd down back or hurry up back.

With the exception of goal line and 3rd down short yardage, I think Burk and DLew are interchangeable and make sense on every down and distance

Gillislee is your primary runner and White is the primary receiver.

 

[Simpelton]

Blount was more like a French Army knife:

He had one job and did his job. Bad Superbowl performance aside, Blount was huge in the first 4 games

 

[RobertWeathers]

He had one job and did his job. Bad Superbowl performance aside, Blount was huge in the first 4 games

Blount was fine last year. He was a great teammate and I'm glad he was a Patriot.

But....

What can't be overlooked is out of 8 playoff games, he scored 7 of his 8 TDs and gathered 2/3rds of his yards in 2 of them.

In the other 6 games he had 57 carries and averaged 2.73 ypc.

The defenses, the line and the interest in putting the ball in Tom's hands all played into it so I don't totally blame him.

I know the other RBs didnt exactly light the world on fire but I'll be interesting to see how Gillislee and Burk show if they can run well in the playoffs.

 

[Nunchucks]

With the exception of goal line and 3rd down short yardage, I think Burk and DLew are interchangeable and make sense on every down and distance

Gillislee is your primary runner and White is the primary receiver.

I am with you for the most part. I think Burkhead is a more dynamic receiver and a better power runner, while Lewis is just friggin an amazing runner if there is any space at all, even a sliver.