Tom Brady and the 4 Year Plan

[archstanton543]

Tom Brady is unique. We all agree. And yet, he's always been undersold. At Michigan, they preferred the hotshot local recruit and wanted to give him the job. After splitting time, eventually Brady proved the better QB. Fittingly, in his final game, he beat Alabama in an epic come from behind victory (sound familiar?).

No one wanted Brady in the draft. Scouts ignored game film and instead focused on his combine performance, where his speed, quickness, strength numbers were at the bottom of the chart.

And now, all these years later and approaching 40, Tom Brady sits at the mountaintop as the greatest QB in NFL history. Passing records, MVPs, and of course, 5 Super Bowl victories illustrate an incomparable career.

But Bill Belichick and all of New England is asking the tough question about when should be the time to bid the legend farewell and move forward. After all, you can't expect this to continue forever. Besides, there's another hotshot backup QB waiting in the wings and with the collective bargaining agreement you can only keep him for so long. Plus, of course, the young guy rightfully wants to play. He's waited long enough, he's ready to take over. And Brady is old, surely at the end of his career.

For me, it isn't a tough call. I've reviewed tape of the 1st and 2nd year Brady, I've reviewed several games from this year and honestly I'm blown away by how little Brady has lost. His arm strength is unquestionably still there. He still moves very well in the pocket, something instinctual that he's always possessed. And the intangibles, the tireless work, the great leadership, the emotional pulse of the team, will be there as long as he's playing. Tom Brady will be Tom Brady with little drop off for the next two years. He also very likely can still be a very good QB with some drop off for an additional two years after that.

If I'm Bill Belichick, here's what I'm thinking: I've made some great off season moves, and this team is loaded and ready to win another Super Bowl. I have a desperate, wanting franchise in the Cleveland Browns who have multiple draft picks and are willing to give me a boatload of those draft picks for my backup QB. I have a 4 year plan. I'll take those picks, load up even more, take some of the pressure of Tom Brady, and in so doing, likely be the favorite to win the title all 4 years. And while letting go of my backup QB, I'll still continue the search for my next QB AFTER Brady, perhaps even selecting one in this year's draft.

Yes, investing, believing in a 40 year old QB is unique, different. But knowing you could potentially win the next 4 Super Bowls (making that 5 in a row!), well, that is the reason you play the game, right? Tom Brady has publicly stated his willingness to commit to the organization for the next 4 years. In turn, would the organization be bold enough to commit to him?

I hope this is how it plays out. Putting your faith in Tom Brady and surrounding him with the best talent you've ever had, could lead to a 4 year window unmatched in sports history. And people, 4 years is a lifetime in sports.

If it plays out this way, enjoy the ride. It'll be beyond anything you've ever imagined.

tl;dr

 

[Huckleberry1]

I wonder about that. Quite frankly I think he's a bit further down the "using skill, intelligence and sheer hard work to cover for his age" trail than some of the rest of you seem to believe. I think it's clear that he's already using the reserves of youthful energy that you guys seem to think he has saved back. I think he's having to burn the candle at both ends to maintain his current level of play, and that's only going to get harder for him as the years push by.

I wouldn't be surprised if it all started catching up to him as early as this year. Heck there's an argument to be made that he barely escaped the cliff in the Superbowl itself but found a way to bounce back at the last possible moment.

BTW I've mentioned this before but -- decline doesn't tend to be a uniform thing, you used to be able to do X now you can do X-1. Those of us who watch baseball remember Curt Schilling and the way it ended for him, yes the final blow came because of injury as his shoulder just gave out on him but for years before that he had games where he was vintage Schilling, with overpowering stuff and superb command, and more and more days where it was just the command, until the 2007 World Serie he was winning a World Series game on nothing but guts, Cortisone, and memories of the pitcher he used to be.

Schilling's strange personality and off-putting politics aside, I think there's a good analogy here. He held his own very well in his own battle with Father Time. Schill worked his butt off trying to make the most of the talent he had left, just like we expected Brady to, and he succeeded, Schilling was a playoff monster right to the end, but it led to more and more inconsistency in his play as he went along, days he could pump it in at 94, days when the clock topped at 91 and he had to live on the split, until finally he was getting by on an 89mph fastball and pure courage.

As Brady declines I don't expect there to just simply be things he can't do. I expect there to be days of vintage Brady and days where he has to get by on pure guile and intelligence because that's all he'll have going for him. At first he'll be able to push back, mask his decline to a certain extent, and have more good days simply by working out harder, making good lifestyle decisions, and he'll be able to have moments of vintage form and be able to turn on the jets in clutch moments, quite frankly I think that's the Tom Brady we've seen over the last 3 years. I think he's already doing that stuff to hide his physical decline. That's what I mean when I say I think he's already burnt through the reserves of energy you guys seem to think he still has open to him.

There is going to come a point where the hard work can't mask the growing inconsistency, and games are going to start getting away from Brady. Not all of them, but more and more of them. Eventually those are going to be playoff games as the ability to take it to that top gear of his gets harder and harder for him to find. I'm personally afraid we're probably further down that road than some folks want to admit. This Superbowl almost got away from him before he was able to find his A game. How much longer until the A game just can't be found?

Yes, that's why he keeps getting better, because he's in such steep decline. I'm afraid he's going to decline even more this year and win the MVP and Super Bowl. It's a terrible thing watching a great player keep improving as his skills just get worse and worse while his performance gets better and better.

On a similar note I think you should retire from posting as your posts just get dumber and dumber. I realize it's only been a few weeks here but you have clearly lost all touch with reality and you should probably try to get as comfortable as possible as life slips away from you. It was a good run but now it's time for you to just sip your applesauce and let your nurse read to you while you wallow in your incontinence. Have a good afterlife, I'll think of you when my dogs crap and I have to pick it up and throw it out, wondering each time if that's the reincarnation of Simpleton. As Kirk Lazarus said all so prophetically " never go full ******," and you have done that far too many times.

 

[archstanton543]

"On a similar note I think you should retire from posting as your posts just get dumber and dumber."

You...you do know his screen name is "Simpleton", right?

 

[Huckleberry1]

We'll be sure to let Brady know about your white knighting crusade. Maybe he'll give you a pat on the head and a kiddie cone of avocado ice cream.

Thanks Quantum. I don't need to let him know about the in house haters who always doubted him, you guys have helped to motivate him for years and years.

 

[Huckleberry1]

"On a similar note I think you should retire from posting as your posts just get dumber and dumber."

You...you do know his screen name is "Simpleton", right?

Possibly the most appropriate username ever.

 

[sb1]

Jimmy G playing somewhere else doesn't have to be ugly either. In fact, a trade of Jimmy could be BB's Herschel Walker trade that sets up the next Pats' dynasty.

That would be awesome but sadly teams aren't dumb enough to give that kind of haul for a guy like JG.

Or dumb enough to give one first rounder at all for that matter....as I've been saying for months.

 

[sb1]

I disagree with that characterization. Blount doesn't fumble that ball and whoever it was doesn't commit the hold on the drive right before halftime and even with the pick-six (that one was all on Brady) the game is far more reasonable at halftime (21-14) and no one is talking about it "getting away from" Brady.

Brady did not have a good first half. But the reasons for that had zilch to do with his age. I've seen much worse from a younger Brady.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Brady did not have a good first half. But the reasons for that had zilch to do with his age. I've seen much worse from a younger Brady.

Anyone who uses the Super Bowl to advance their contention Brady is in decline went to bed at the half.

 

[Huckleberry1]

That would be awesome but sadly teams aren't dumb enough to give that kind of haul for a guy like JG.

Or dumb enough to give one first rounder at all for that matter....as I've been saying for months.

Disagree, teams are horny for quarterbacks and a team will pony up for Garrapolo.

 

[sb1]

Disagree, teams are horny for quarterbacks and a team will pony up for Garrapolo.

Hope you're right and I'm wrong... but I think my own team would be dumb if we gave up a first for a Jimmy Garoppolo clone

 

[Huckleberry1]

Hope you're right and I'm wrong... but I think own my team would be dumb if we gave up a first for a Jimmy Garoppolo clone

It depends upon the team. I think it would be a mistake for the Browns, imo their smartest move would be to start Osweiler, suck for one more season, and make sure they maximize all those top picks. For some other teams it could be a smart move, depending upon how they evaluate Garrapolo.

Houston-I wouldn't trade Garrapolo to Houston period. If Garrapolo did turn into a good QB it would fill their biggest need and make them a real contender, and there's no need to help them fill their biggest need, let them get Romo and continue looking.

Denver-I don't think they are in the bidding but I wouldn't trade him there for the same reasons as Houston.

Arizona. I think Palmer is toast and Arizona would be very wise to use a first round pick to get Garrapolo away from NE.

SF-They won't give the #2 and I don't believe Belichick will trade him without a first round pick. Could Belichick take a 2018 pick, maybe, if so they might try to package this years 2nd with a 1stnext year, but that's a steep price.

Washington- Cousins is obviously the key here, they could very well move him for high picks then try to trade for Garrapolo. This would be very much in line with the way Snyder operates.

That's a few ideas, others may have different views.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Hope you're right and I'm wrong... but I think own my team would be dumb if we gave up a first for a Jimmy Garoppolo clone

The Patriots have the best QB in football so it wouldn't make any sense. Imo the teams that make sense are those who could contend in their conference or division if they got a good QB, or in the Redskins case replaced a good QB who is too costly with a good young QB.

 

[Huckleberry1]

I wonder about that. Quite frankly I think he's a bit further down the "using skill, intelligence and sheer hard work to cover for his age" trail than some of the rest of you seem to believe. I think it's clear that he's already using the reserves of youthful energy that you guys seem to think he has saved back. I think he's having to burn the candle at both ends to maintain his current level of play, and that's only going to get harder for him as the years push by.

I wouldn't be surprised if it all started catching up to him as early as this year. Heck there's an argument to be made that he barely escaped the cliff in the Superbowl itself but found a way to bounce back at the last possible moment.

BTW I've mentioned this before but -- decline doesn't tend to be a uniform thing, you used to be able to do X now you can do X-1. Those of us who watch baseball remember Curt Schilling and the way it ended for him, yes the final blow came because of injury as his shoulder just gave out on him but for years before that he had games where he was vintage Schilling, with overpowering stuff and superb command, and more and more days where it was just the command, until the 2007 World Serie he was winning a World Series game on nothing but guts, Cortisone, and memories of the pitcher he used to be.

Schilling's strange personality and off-putting politics aside, I think there's a good analogy here. He held his own very well in his own battle with Father Time. Schill worked his butt off trying to make the most of the talent he had left, just like we expected Brady to, and he succeeded, Schilling was a playoff monster right to the end, but it led to more and more inconsistency in his play as he went along, days he could pump it in at 94, days when the clock topped at 91 and he had to live on the split, until finally he was getting by on an 89mph fastball and pure courage.

As Brady declines I don't expect there to just simply be things he can't do. I expect there to be days of vintage Brady and days where he has to get by on pure guile and intelligence because that's all he'll have going for him. At first he'll be able to push back, mask his decline to a certain extent, and have more good days simply by working out harder, making good lifestyle decisions, and he'll be able to have moments of vintage form and be able to turn on the jets in clutch moments, quite frankly I think that's the Tom Brady we've seen over the last 3 years. I think he's already doing that stuff to hide his physical decline. That's what I mean when I say I think he's already burnt through the reserves of energy you guys seem to think he still has open to him.

There is going to come a point where the hard work can't mask the growing inconsistency, and games are going to start getting away from Brady. Not all of them, but more and more of them. Eventually those are going to be playoff games as the ability to take it to that top gear of his gets harder and harder for him to find. I'm personally afraid we're probably further down that road than some folks want to admit. This Superbowl almost got away from him before he was able to find his A game. How much longer until the A game just can't be found?

Along these same lines I was just thinking about the Super Bowl and realized the best offense in football only mustered 7 points in the second half, a precipitous decline by Matt Ryan, who made serious mistakes in the second half. Having hit the age where football players decline it's obvious that he's almost done and wonder if the Patriots should bring him in as Brady's backup while they train Brissett? Maybe they should trade Garrapolo for Ryan, back up for future back up, Ryan has reached the edge of Kellerman's Cliff, pull the trigger Bill, get Brady a good veteran back up at the end of his career.

 

[TruthSeeker]

I wonder about that. Quite frankly I think he's a bit further down the "using skill, intelligence and sheer hard work to cover for his age" trail than some of the rest of you seem to believe. I think it's clear that he's already using the reserves of youthful energy that you guys seem to think he has saved back...

So Rob Parker isn't on an island all by himself.

Do you also agree with Rob that the Patriots won't be making the playoffs in 2017?

 

[Joey007]

"Ivan The Terrible". It has nothing to do with the release of the ball. It is the process of getting to it. Can you recall what happened at the beginning of that season? I am pretty sure that is when he started working with Tom House. House is a well known pitching coach. Next year will be 4 years removed from that. Now try not to get all goofy over this stuff ok?

I don't agree with anything you're saying.

The Ivan the Terrible thing is why I rated this funny.

 

[deroc5050]

It depends upon the team. I think it would be a mistake for the Browns, imo their smartest move would be to start Osweiler, suck for one more season, and make sure they maximize all those top picks. For some other teams it could be a smart move, depending upon how they evaluate Garrapolo.

Houston-I wouldn't trade Garrapolo to Houston period. If Garrapolo did turn into a good QB it would fill their biggest need and make them a real contender, and there's no need to help them fill their biggest need, let them get Romo and continue looking.

Denver-I don't think they are in the bidding but I wouldn't trade him there for the same reasons as Houston.

Arizona. I think Palmer is toast and Arizona would be very wise to use a first round pick to get Garrapolo away from NE.

SF-They won't give the #2 and I don't believe Belichick will trade him without a first round pick. Could Belichick take a 2018 pick, maybe, if so they might try to package this years 2nd with a 1stnext year, but that's a steep price.

Washington- Cousins is obviously the key here, they could very well move him for high picks then try to trade for Garrapolo. This would be very much in line with the way Snyder operates.

That's a few ideas, others may have different views.

'

Or like the best reporter in the NFL said.. the Patriots are not trading Jimmy G.

 

[sb1]

The Patriots have the best QB in football so it wouldn't make any sense. Imo the teams that make sense are those who could contend in their conference or division if they got a good QB, or in the Redskins case replaced a good QB who is too costly with a good young QB.

Well I meant from the hypothetical perspective where my team needs a QB.

Something to chew on- what if JG is seen as a system QB by other teams? Based on his performances in that sample size it's not out of the realm of possibility that he may very well be. If that is the perception the Pats would have a difficult time attracting the kind of return to excite us fans.

 

[Simpelton]

So Rob Parker isn't on an island all by himself.

Do you also agree with Rob that the Patriots won't be making the playoffs in 2017?

Hell no. They're definitely going to at least MAKE the playoffs. As built this team probably makes the playoffs with Jacoby Brissett under center, with Brady in uniform I think a Superbowl is very possible next year.

Just getting a little tired of some of the "Well he can just do this thing that he's clearly already been doing for years and that will mean he is our starting quarterback for the rest of my life and everything will be fine and nothing bad will ever happen and rainbows and fairies and unicorns will dance in the endzone forever!"

Do you guys really think there's any harder that this guy can work to take care of himself and be the best quarterback he can be? Really, search your souls, do you honestly think that? Once that stops being enough, we have no idea what's going to happen, and I don't expect Brady does either -- but I suspect when he's reached his physical maximum and pushed his body to its credit limit, when the crash comes, it could indeed come pretty suddenly.

Because when the time comes that Brady has to push himself harder to maintain his elite performance than he's actually capable of doing... well there's a price tag for demanding more of yourself than you can possibly give for too many years in a row. And for playing at such a high level for this many years, the backlash could wind up being pretty shocking. Only his lack of an injury history is letting him avoid this consequence THIS long. I'm just not sure how much I trust Brady to keep cheating the reaper when he's already several standard deviations from the mean as it is.

I get the impression that he's doing everything short of taking PED's to remain at a peak level now, so far after most athletes' actual physical peak. When his body stops cashing the checks he's writing, the transition could actually be pretty sudden -- and come a lot sooner than any of us WANT it to. Because he's absolutely not going to let himself slide gently down the bell curve until he physically can't prevent it from happening anymore, so when he does finally have no choice bit to let his play level decline, the backlash could be moderately spectacular.

My personal take? Projecting ANYTHING in football out beyond 2 years is foolish and stupid. Ask me whether brady will be around in 2019, I say yes, probably, at least in some form. Ask me about 2020 my response will be to ask me in 2018. And I'm not going to sell out to get behind Brady when my gut take is that the ride is ending soon -- not next year, but not 5 more years either.

 

[Huckleberry1]

'

Or like the best reporter in the NFL said.. the Patriots are not trading Jimmy G.

I wouldn't either if the price is right but he won't be replacing Brady unless he's willing to sit until 2021. If he wants to do that it's ok with me, anyone who thinks he will win the job is on crack.

 

[Simpelton]

It's more likely than you want to think that Garoppolo will win the job by 2020. Brady is borrowing heavily on his credit with Father Time right now. He's worked his ass off to be able to play like a man 10 years his junior for at least the last 3 seasons. I really don't know how much farther he can ratchet up the workout and lifestyle game to keep holding back entropy when it's pretty clear he's already doing nearly everything mortally possible.

I think that the 5 year projection is accurate in the sense that a player who's staring at the cliff can put off Father Time for 5 years if they remain healthy and work very hard, I just happen to think that as many as 3 of those years are already behind us.

Brady has been going flat out with the workouts and lifestyle adjustments since at least 2014. No matter what kind of freak of nature he is, there's only so much a 40 year old man can do to stay at an elite NFL level for more than a couple more seasons. He might go farther most, but no one runs forever.

There's also the fact that there's only so much time Brady can devote to fighting off the Reaper with training and lifestyle until he makes himself inaccessible to his own family. He's already pushing the boundaries of what he can achieve and have some kind of life outside football. We saw some rumors Giselle's a little unhappy with his choice of work life balance as it is, and if he steps it down to please her, it's going to be all the harder to keep his career going at the level we're used to. That's not going to get better over time as the pressures of playing elite level football are placed on an older and older human body. I'd hate for Brady to elect to destroy his family in the name of squeezing out a handful of seasons in uniform when he already has nothing to prove and probably won't need more money for the rest of his life.

If asked to don my silver turban and peer into the crystal ball, I'd say that this all comes to a head at the end of the 2018 season, especially if we have at least one more Lombardi at Gillette in the meantime. It'll start with a few more games towards the end of 2017 that are not that Brady-like. Possibly even one between games 12 and 16 where he has a couple turnovers on short yardages amd Belichick feels obliged to bring on the backup. That'd be the sign that the wheels are in motion. Then Brady, sensing the end might be near, throws everything he has into getting back to where he feels he should be in time for the Superbowl, and we win the Lombardi again for 3 out of 4.

Then... he comes out the gate in 2018 very rough as the wear and tear of all the hard work above and beyond the call of duty that he puts in to stay in elite shape for the last 5 years catches up and cascades on him. We lose 3 of the first 7 games of the season with at least 2 of the 3 losses on Brady, and while there's flashes of vintage Brady, enough to win us significantly more games than we lose, it becomes clear that he's just not quite on the level he used to be. We get to the playoffs after a year of either 10-6 or 11-5, make some noise, but have a disappointing AFCCG and don't make the Superbowl.

Fans here will find something to blame, probably the offensive line or perhaps the defense or the running backs, and insist that Brady has still got it and he was let down by something or someone. but that's the point where I think the onset of physical decline, the demands of family, and the franchise's own need for security for the future combine and end Brady's tenure as a New England Patriot despite more than enough evidence to support either side of what one might call the "keep or kick" debate.

The Brady loyalists and the franchise-first fans will have some bitter arguments on forums like this one, but the deed will be done, the Bradyists will fume, and the franchise will be handed to Garoppolo to see what he does with it in the sure knowledge that while he probably isn't as good as Brady, no one would be and the Brady era was going to need to end sometime, with some kind of replacement, and the franchise could do far worse.