Mike Dussault: Making the Case for a Long-Term Logan Ryan Contract

[Bobsyouruncle]

I don't know, I can say that the secondary of 09-13 has me shell shocked and part of the recovery IMO has been some stability with McCourty, Harmon, Ryan, and Butler. I'm sure we can lose one of those guys, but I'm in no hurry to do so.

 

[RayClay]

I don't know, I can say that the secondary of 09-13 has me shell shocked and part of the recovery IMO has been some stability with McCourty, Harmon, Ryan, and Butler. I'm sure we can lose one of those guys, but I'm in no hurry to do so.

They've done a great job of finding affordable players lately. 2011 was a horror show.

 

[RayClay]

So now it's dump on Hightower because he's had injuries? It just never stops.

 

[Love The Drake]

Franchise and trade Hightower?

 

[IndianPat]

They will keep Hightower. His reps may have diminished, which I feel is temporary. It takes a full 2 to 3 years for a line backer to be seasoned in the Patriot system.
OTH, Logan Ryan's market will be too strong for the Patriots to be able to match it. He has showcased himself very well during the playoffs. I expect he will get a top #2 money.

 

[SalemPats]

I doubt Ryan is back since some team will overpay him, like they did with Samuel, Merriweather, etc...

I assume Hightower will resign

 

[doesntmatter1]

I doubt Ryan is back since some team will overpay him, like they did with Samuel, Merriweather, etc...

I assume Hightower will resign

I wanted Samuel to badly resign and even moreso after Wheatley, Oneal, Wilhite etc.

 

[luuked]

For sure. It's just not a great practice to pay your second best corner significantly more than your best when they are both looking for new deals.

Butler has done and said everything right since getting here, I don't see much reason playing hardball with him. He is also on a tender deal, so he may be inclined to take someone else's money if he doesn't feel respected.

Like Miguel noted . it's in Pats best interest to extend Butler sooner than later if they are decided to keep him longterm. They have the leverage, but far from all of it.
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@S-S: Always great to read MD. Good starting points to start the thread to think things over again.
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Note: Pats did/will offer extensions to all mentioned players. So theoretically all can sign and stay.

Looking at the salary structure by positions its really hard to envision Ryan and Harmon staying. (DMC - Harmon situation is somewhat similar to Brady - Garoppolo). Much easier for Hightower even if he wants Kuechly's money.

The CB position is deep both in FA and draft (not including trade options with many teams reshuffling under new management). That might lower Ryan's price . or BB can find veteran substitution for good price.
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There are lots of FAs expecting big contracts this year. They should know that the league average for $10M+ contracts is 2.2 per team .. and for $5-10M range 6. (See my post with complete table at: Building 2017 roster)

Not much space for top contracts. That's why BB always says he's not afraid of the market.

I am not disagreeing with any of you two in terms of Butler. I'd also prefer a proper extension but the reality is that tendering him + franchise tag is most probably still a lower average amount per year with a **** ton of flexibility and no dead money built in.

Now does Butler want to agree to a below market extension that might give him more security overall or decide to play this out for 2 years to get a potential big pay day then ? Given his age he most probably only has one really big contract in his career. I don't really see much leverage for him in this situation.

The reality is that 2 years is a long time in the league and if you can have one of the better CBs of the league for 50% of his market rate for that time you might as well do that and assume that he will leave afterwards.

 

[slash83]

I put HT being back at 70/30, not 50/50.

 

[long distance]

Hey guys, it's Mike D, just wanted to say thanks for posting this here and I appreciate all the really good discussion, including the smart counter arguments. PatsFans was the first place on the internet I started getting Pats obsessed and will always have a special place in my heart. So many smart insightful fans here, it's always an honor when something I write sparks conversation here. I'm always kicking myself when I read the posts because you guys always come up with angles I didn't think of. So thank you! And LET'S GO PATS!

Thanks for letting us use your stuff.
PatsPropaganda is a great place: peaceful, respectful, knowledgable, passionate oasis.
Keep up the great work and stop by more often ..

 

[luuked]

Hey guys, it's Mike D, just wanted to say thanks for posting this here and I appreciate all the really good discussion, including the smart counter arguments. PatsFans was the first place on the internet I started getting Pats obsessed and will always have a special place in my heart. So many smart insightful fans here, it's always an honor when something I write sparks conversation here. I'm always kicking myself when I read the posts because you guys always come up with angles I didn't think of. So thank you! And LET'S GO PATS!

Thanks for all the great content on your blog.

 

[PatsBoy12]

Minus a handful of typical Ryan plays in the AFCCG, Ryan has played the best ball of his whole career in these playoffs. That's not hyperbole either. He really has, and if he balls out in the SB, many teams will line up to overpay him. Ryan is a solid #2 and very good slot corner in this league, but he certainly shouldn't get #1 MONEY or anything close to it. Let him walk if that's what he wants and give Butler what he deserves.

 

[BobDigital]

I am getting more and more on board the keep Ryan train but it has its limit. The key facts are he doesn't miss time and in the past 2 seasons he has been more hot than cold. When hot is he is a low level #1 CB. I don't think you can project him to be hot all the time and pay him accordingly. He is and will I think always be a streaky player.

That being said the fact he is so dependable and does so many things the Patriots like (limit YAC and play the run strongly) are not easy to find at the level he does them. Also he really buys into the Patriot mentality and is a BB guy and honestly part of me likes the idea of keeping that strong Rutgers connection in the backfield even if Harmon walks.

I have kept going up on Ryan and the salary cap going up factors into it. I would keep Ryan for up to 9M a year. I know the Pats rarely pay these kinds of contracts but in today's NFL CBs mean so much and the Pats have only been able to do what they have done on defense cause they have had that secondary to fall back on. I think you can let Harmon go and keep it still pretty strong.

Having the mix of Butler/McCourty/Ryan/Chung has allowed you to let Chandler Jones, Jamie Collins, Dominique Easley and Akiem Hicks walk and not pay for it.

They have had a substandard pass rush most of the year and have not paid for it. They have had shaky LB play during the year and not paid for it.

You could look at that backfield and the contracts it would take to keep it together and say "look what you would need to spend". It would be equally true to look at that backfield and say "look how much money it has allowed you to save".

In the end Atlanta will decide a lot of this. If they need to win a shoot out then there is logic you need more of a rebuild and this secondary is not a long term answer. However if they beat the Falcons and hold them down (to 24 lets say) through the strength of mostly their secondary then that signals to me this is a unit you keep and build the rest of your defense around for the next 5 years. It is young and you can lock up the pieces for a long time and have that locked down.

 

[dafoe2016]

Logan Ryan has always been inconsistent. For every game that he played well he would have two or three where he looked completely lost out there. He finally put together a good season in year in year four. I don't think you can afford to chance a huge contract on a guy like that. I love what he's done for us this year, but I don't trust him yet. Not with the kind of contract that will be available to him. You know damn well some team will overpay him. I would be shocked if he is here next year. Butler is the number one defensive priority in the off season.

 

[Love The Drake]

Logan could get a contract in the 9 mill range and I could be wrong but i see him as a 5 mill guy.
If be shocked if Patriots offer more than 6.5 a year.

 

[long distance]

Id keep Harmon over Ryan in every aspect of the thought.

To me Ryan could be worth something like 4y/30 or 5y/35 with 18 guaranteed (basically a 3y 6M deal) on account of his dependability and tackling. A top of the line #2-3 corner. He bene-fits from Pats D scheme & safeties (Butler as well . which doesn't mean he's not playing great).

Id be happy if he stays . but surprised as well. Pats have (or will have after tenders) 5 CBs under contract for 2017 before FA and draft even begin.

 

[Jackson 2]

Logan is going to strike gold this spring. It will not be in Massachusetts.

 

[50-yard-line]

I have no idea who they're keeping, who's walking. Been wrong consistently (Collins, CJones...).

I do know, though, that this is going to be one of the most interesting off-seasons in memory!

 

[Love The Drake]

Blount is staying
If not keep your eye on Eddie Lacy
If the Colts are smart they are all over Lacy

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

Has anyone considered the impact of Ryan's departure would have on our secondary?
Given Brady's age, I think the Pats should do everything in their power to preserve the core of their defense to keep our championship window open (a win now! frame of thought)

Here are some current contract for comparison:

Low end: Robert Alford, Atlanta Falcons -?? 4 years, $38 million, $21 million guaranteed.

High end: Darius Slay, Detroit Lions -?? 4 years, $48.15 million, $23.1 million guaranteed.

Just right: Jimmy Smith, Baltimore Ravens -?? 4 years, $41.1 million, $21 million guaranteed.