Playoff Predictions (Post here to complain about people speculating)

[Mike the Brit]

The Patriots win the tie-breaker on best win % in common games:

Houston, New York, Pittsburgh.

KC is 1-2.
New England is 3-0.

Helpful.

So it looks like the games against the Broncs don't matter to the tie-breaker -- even if KC wins their remaining game against the Broncos and the Patriots lose, KC will be 3-2 against common opponents (having won the first game against the Broncos) and the Pats will be 3-1.

 

[PatsDeb]

I mean, they were probably talking about playoff scenarios for KC...you know, the team that won last night and took the division lead.

Too bad. It has to be all Pats, all the time as far as I'm concerned ;-)

 

[FourierSeries]

And the winner is ..

This can't be true. I was told by the experts on this forum that we are to live in constant fear of Oakland and KC from now until January.

 

[upstater1]

I dont know about the order of tiebreakers exactly but fact is we need to win either against Denver or the Jets to have that one over KC.

Well, obviously, a win over the Jets is already assumed in the scenario where the Patriots end up 13-3.

My only points:

1. Even with a Patriots loss on Monday night, the Patriots have the #1 seed based on common opponents. So the NFL crew was wrong about that.

2. If the Patriots end up 13-3 and tied to KC, they can afford a loss either to Baltimore or the Broncos, and they'll still end up with the #1 seed.

 

[upstater1]

Helpful.

So it looks like the games against the Broncs don't matter to the tie-breaker -- even if KC wins their remaining game against the Broncos and the Patriots lose, KC will be 3-2 against common opponents (having won the first game against the Broncos) and the Pats will be 3-1.

Yes, you are mostly correct. The Patriots would actually be 4-1 because of a win over the Jets.

 

[jah]

Too bad. It has to be all Pats, all the time as far as I'm concerned ;-)

Well, I have no qualms here.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

2. If the Patriots end up 13-3 and tied to KC, they can afford a loss either to Baltimore or the Broncos, and they'll still end up with the #1 seed.

And if they end up 12-4 and tied with KC they get the #1 seed as long as the two losses aren't to both DEN and NYJ.

 

[Ring 6]

The Patriots win the tie-breaker on best win % in common games:

Houston, New York, Pittsburgh.

KC is 1-2.
New England is 3-0.

Technically this doesn't count because there is a minimum of 4 games. But since they both play Denver it will become valid and Kc cannot catch NE

 

[Mike the Brit]

Technically this doesn't count because there is a minimum of 4 games. But since they both play Denver it will become valid and Kc cannot catch NE

See previous post. If the Pats' losses are v. Denver and NYJ they could both end up at 3-2 and 12-4.

 

[Ring 6]

See previous post. If the Pats' losses are v. Denver and NYJ they could both end up at 3-2 and 12-4.

Not if Kc loss is to Denver.

 

[Mike the Brit]

Not if Kc loss is to Denver.

Of course.

 

[patfanken]

To point out the ludicrousness of this entire thread you just have to note that the Raiders went from the#1 with home field advantage throughout, to the #5 seed who would have to play 3 road games to get the Superbowl, all in one game. BTW- that's not to say in the same sentence, Raiders may STILL wind up with the #1 seed.

So can you all finally see the extreme pointlessness of this discussion. Mayne 2 weeks from now it MAY have some relevance, but certainly not now.

 

[long distance]

To point out the ludicrousness of this entire thread you just have to note that the Raiders went from the#1 with home field advantage throughout, to the #5 seed who would have to play 3 road games to get the Superbowl, all in one game. BTW- that's not to say in the same sentence, Raiders may STILL wind up with the #1 seed.

So can you all finally see the extreme pointlessness of this discussion. Mayne 2 weeks from now it MAY have some relevance, but certainly not now.

Hmm ..
The outcome of yesterdays game actually does have relevance to the Pats playoff hunt and for discussion.
The Pats have HFA in their own hands now: if they win out HFA is guaranteed now and even 3-1 gets them there in most scenarios.
And while people here are daydreaming about postseason Pats are on to Ravens. Nothing wrong with that.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Thanks for the thought and effort to the OP, but a little premature for me.

There are a number of AFC teams that could be playing on the first Sunday of February and the Pats are looking good to be that team. But no Gronk or Amendola levels the playing field a bit.

The Pats have four tough games ahead. We all focus on BAL and @DEN, but I never put any Division Game, no matter how pathetic the opponent, into the W column until the clock reads 0:00.

 

[1960Pats]

And if they end up 12-4 and tied with KC they get the #1 seed as long as the two losses aren't to both DEN and NYJ.

Exactly. It's why most of us should have been rooting for the Chefs last night.

 

[BobDigital]

I am not going to get into playoff predictions. Whether we get the 1 or 2 seed (I don't see a reasonably way to miss it) we will get a full week to go through playoff scenarios.

I will say this though. If the Pats beat Baltimore they do Denver a BIG favor.

That would make it much more likely for Denver to get in.

 

[Brewskies]

If they win every game of the 4 then nothing to worry about.

 

[XLIX]

The Patriots win the tie-breaker on best win % in common games:

Houston, New York, Pittsburgh.

KC is 1-2.
New England is 3-0.

You are half right and half wrong. In order for the common opponents tie breaker to apply, you have to have 4 common opponents. We do not yet have that with KC, but we will by the end of the season. So KC may have the tie breaker advantage against us now, but won't have it at the end of the season if everybody is 13-3.

 

[supafly]

You are half right and half wrong. In order for the common opponents tie breaker to apply, you have to have 4 common opponents. We do not yet have that with KC, but we will by the end of the season. So KC may have the tie breaker advantage against us now, but won't have it at the end of the season if everybody is 13-3.

So, the analysts on NFLN were technically correct then last night, when they stated that KC would regain the #1 seed with a NE loss on MNF.

As you clarify, it wouldn't really matter since the common opponents would kick in once they get to 4. Am I reading this correctly? In other words, NE would win the top seed if both teams are tied at 13-3, and even if they are both 12-4 (assuming that BOTH of our losses aren't to DEN and the NYJ).

 

[deroc5050]

New England #1
Oakland #2
Pittsburg #3
Colts #4
KC#5
Denver #6

I didn't even look at remaining home and away games. Miami and Baltimore could very well get in over Pitt and WC team. Who the hell knows still a 1/4 of the season left.

This year I could see the Pats getting knocked out in the divisional round to winning the Super Bowl. Seattle, Dallas, Baltimore, Pittsburg, KC, Denver, New England all have a shot and you never know with the Giants or Washington.