Let's face it - The AFC is a 3-team race

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Re: Let's face it - The AFC is a 3 team race

Then you're saying that there's a 50% chance Denver will suck, and can't be put ahead of Indy?

I am talking about the QB not the whole team...It takes 53 guys to win...or lose.

I just think right now Denver has a better overall team than Indy- Denver has a better coach (Shanahan beats Dungy anyday) and denver also has a 10X better talented secondary.

The 2006 championship is over,its a new season...and a new champion will be crowned...I doubt very much its Indy again.

 

[JackBauer]

I think it's really a four-team race in the AFC between NE, Indy, Denver, and San Diego. I can see the argument for dropping Indy, but until the season starts I think they deserve to be considered among the elite.

However...

It is my opinion that Indy will struggle and struggle mightily this year unless they have some serious question marks break in their favor (Ugoh playing like McNeill; Hayden and Jackson showing they're starting-caliber DB's; Indy somehow conjuring up some talented DT's). Either way, they've got to be concerned, not only with their starters but with depth on defense.

 

[Pujo]

Re: Let's face it - The AFC is a 3 team race

I am talking about the QB not the whole team...It takes 53 guys to win...or lose.

It takes 53 guys to win, but 1 guy to loose, if that guy's the QB.

 

[ColtsTroll]

Re: Let's face it - The AFC is a 3 team race

Certain Elite
Pats. Need to keep Kool-Aid healthy. That is a MUST. Everything else should be a given barring major unforseen injuries.

Best of the Rest
Denver's hopes hinge on a 2nd year starter with 6 career starts, and aging D, and a RB who likes to cough the ball up. Nope
-Indy has suffered too many losses and no cap space to replenish the losses. Nope
-Baltimore has a QB who is held together by beer lables
-Cinci has a porus D. Good O
-SD- Norv Turner.....'nuff said
-Jets- My 5 year old throws harder than Chad Pennington. Their D is still 1-2 years away
-Jax- WRs suck. QB suck. Great D and running game. Airhead coach who cant coach

Pats are just the most well-rounded team.

Actually Indy has cap space from Tarik Glenn retiring. About 4.5 mm more than they did before he retired.

 

[ColtsTroll]

Re: Let's face it - The AFC is a 3 team race

I am talking about the QB not the whole team...It takes 53 guys to win...or lose.

I just think right now Denver has a better overall team than Indy- Denver has a better coach (Shanahan beats Dungy anyday) and denver also has a 10X better talented secondary.

The 2006 championship is over,its a new season...and a new champion will be crowned...I doubt very much its Indy again.

Newsflash: Indy owns Denver. I can't remember the last time they beat us. Shannahan hasn't been the mastermind since Elway left, except when they play New England of course

Denver's secondary was good last year as well, but our offense abused them. We now have a legit 3rd WR which should help as well.

 

[DaBruinz]

Re: Let's face it - The AFC is a 3 team race

Amen. The Colts haven't gone away. Yeah, they've had some roster changes, but now must show they belong, just as the Patriots have in the past, with their play this season. They are still dangerous and a contender at the highest level.

Agree with the Denver assessment, and while San Diego is loaded with talent, the coaching changes will have some influence in the first half of the season. Let's see how well Turner can coach adversity. He's definitely a "player's coach," and that may be exactly what the team doesn't need in light of all the changes. We shall see...

I have questioned whether or not Indy will be a contender this season. I have done so because of the retirement of Tarik Glenn. IF Ugoh or Johnson can step up and be even average, then Indy will be very tough. If Ugoh or Johnson can't step up, then Indy will be in a dire predicament. The left side was the best side that Indy ran to last year with almost a yard and a half difference per carry.

In the passing game, Manning has had 4 years where he has taken more than 20 sacks. One was as a rookie and I will discount that one. From 2000-2002, Manning was sacked, 20, 29,23 times respecitvely (average of 24 times). During that time, Manning also threw 15, 23, 19 interceptions (avg of 19). From 2003 to 2006, Manning was sacked an average of 15.5 times and threw and average of 10 ints. So there is a dramatic difference. So, I am pretty confident in saying that if Manning gets sacked more than 20 times, there is a good chance it will affect the passing game more so than usual.

 

[JaredOfNazareth]

Re: Let's face it - The AFC is a 3 team race

I guarantee that Oakland beats either Denver or San Diego! They will beat Kansas City as well. 3-3 in the Division. They play the Chargers last game of the season!

 

[Mike the Brit]

Re: Let's face it - The AFC is a 3 team race

Mildly OT, but the other day I was thinking about the BB's struggles vs. Shanahan and this ridiculous analogy came to mind:

My husband and I used to sometimes play odds & evens to decide who would do a chore -- until he noticed that I beat him way, way too often. I could predict his choices with uncanny accuracy. Then one day, suddenly, it shifted. It was back to pure chance, 50-50. Drat, how did he defeat my mindreading prowess? It turns out that he randomized. He thought of some long word and then went letter by letter, choosing based on whether the letters were odd or even in the alphabet. In other words, he stopped deciding so I was no longer able to anticipate his decisions.

Anyway, that's now the way I picture BB feeling vs. a Shanahan. A fellow gameplanner can "randomize" enough to neutralize your strategic mindreading advantage.

Or as Edward G. Robinson ("Lancey Howard") says in the Cincinnati Kid:

"Poker is about making the wrong move at the right time."

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

Discounting Indy is silly. I don't care who they lost. Do they still have a HoF QB in his prime (and a truckload of weapons surrounding him)? They're still an elite team.

By the same token, I cannot rank Denver among NE, SD, and Indy. Their QB has started 5 games. It's foreseeable that he could have a great year and they'll be an elite team, but it's just as likely their QB struggles and throws games away. He needs to prove something before it makes any sense to predict greatness.

Maybe Pitt can recapture what they lost out of nowhere. That wouldn't surprise me.

Baltimore, Cinci, NYJ, Jax: don't make me laugh. They suffer the same problem any hopeful cinderella team faces, the fact that the AFC is simply too good. No cinderella team is going to get a bye over three of NE, SD, Den, and Indy. That leaves them having to beat at least two of those teams on the road in the playoffs. Basically, the 2001 NEP wouldn't stand a chance in the 2007 AFC. Similarly, a flawed team like the 2000 Ravens wouldn't stand a chance. It isn't a knock on the rest of the AFC as much as it is a testament to the elite teams.

 

[Bobs My Uncle]

I see it is a 1 team race only with the Pats clearly that team.

No team has the combination of player talent, stability at those player positions, big game experience, super bowl winning formula, continuity at the vital coaching positions and intangibles that this Patriot team possesses. Some teams have elements of this package but none has it all as the Patriots do. The Colts are the only team close but they have lost too many starters and are relying on several unproven players at critical positions to seriously compete with the Patriots. They also have to battle the repeat syndrome.

The only thing stopping this years Pats team from winning another Lombardi is injury.

 

[Pujo]

I see it is a 1 team race only with the Pats clearly that team.

No team has the combination of player talent, stability at those player positions, big game experience, super bowl winning formula, continuity at the vital coaching positions and intangibles that this Patriot team possesses. Some teams have elements of this package but none has it all as the Patriots do. The Colts are the only team close but they have lost too many starters and are relying on several unproven players at critical positions to seriously compete with the Patriots. They also have to battle the repeat syndrome.

The only thing stopping this years Pats team from winning another Lombardi is injury.

Amen, only thing in football is that the playoffs are one-and-done, and a worse team can beat a better team sometimes. You just can never know, I think it has to do with quantum physics or something.

 

[KoolAidDrinker]

I disagree. I think it will be a six team race!

I just hope that the Pats can regain the dominance of 2003/2004 and secure a first round bye. The AFC remains very strong and will be a real war.

I'm guessing: Pats, Chargers, Colts, Ravens, Broncos, Bengals in that order

I think an NFC SB champion is highly unlikely, although on any given Sunday ...

Can't wait for the season to begin!

 

[Bobs My Uncle]

Amen, only thing in football is that the playoffs are one-and-done, and a worse team can beat a better team sometimes. You just can never know, I think it has to do with quantum physics or something.

Yeah like in last years AFCCG.

But it won't happen in consecutive years to this Pats team

 

[Bo0MeR]

SB or bust
1) Colts

2) Pats

Contenders
3) Chargers

4) Denver

5) Baltimore

Colts are defending champs and why they have had a couple what I would consider huge losses (Glenn, Booger) the offense will continue to be the most explosive in the league and should add a lot of new wrinkles. The Pats are a very close second. Until the chargers win a playoff game I can't consider them a certified dynasty like a lot of charger homers seem to scream a lot now-a-days

 

[RobertWeathers]

Re: Let's face it - The AFC is a 3 team race

Actually Indy has cap space from Tarik Glenn retiring. About 4.5 mm more than they did before he retired.

You have had a lot of losses and they DO add up. Trust us!

 

[RayClay]

The Colts know how to draft and how to use role players on defense with a few stars.

The defensive coaching job last year was phenomenal. Anyone that watched the Denver game would never have predicted they would pull that defense together, but they did.

The scariest part is Paymeton's finally learned how to use all his weapons and gut it out instead of throwing it up for grabs.

How to win in the clutch, in other words.

They haven't lost much since their defensive players sucked anyway. Glenn might be a chink in the armor though.

Is Booger out for the season? That would hurt since stout linemen are hard to acquire.

That's why we draft 'em.

 

[shakadave]

I've so often seen the need to say this, that I now consider it my job to interject this thought into every 10th thread I read:

REMEMBER THE RAVENS. REMEMBER THE RAVENS.
REMEMBER THE RAVENS. REMEMBER THE RAVENS.
REMEMBER THE RAVENS. REMEMBER THE RAVENS.
REMEMBER THE RAVENS. REMEMBER THE RAVENS.
REMEMBER THE RAVENS. REMEMBER THE RAVENS.
REMEMBER THE RAVENS. REMEMBER THE RAVENS.
REMEMBER THE RAVENS. REMEMBER THE RAVENS.

 

[PATRIOT64]

I've so often seen the need to say this, that I now consider it my job to interject this thought into every 10th thread I read:

REMEMBER THE RAVENS. REMEMBER THE RAVENS.
REMEMBER THE RAVENS. REMEMBER THE RAVENS.
REMEMBER THE RAVENS. REMEMBER THE RAVENS.
REMEMBER THE RAVENS. REMEMBER THE RAVENS.
REMEMBER THE RAVENS. REMEMBER THE RAVENS.
REMEMBER THE RAVENS. REMEMBER THE RAVENS.
REMEMBER THE RAVENS. REMEMBER THE RAVENS.

NOT WITH MCERR
NOT WITH MCERR
NOT WITH MCERR
NOT WITH MCERR.....

Yeah I know Trent freakin Dilfer was QB in 2000 SB championship but that was a better D than this years team although the D this year still looks pretty good.

I think Indy and Baltimore are going to be close in terms of what their respective W-L record shows after final regular season

 

[BoltsFan]

Fair enough. The Ravens are worth considering. As many in this thread have opined, with regard to the AFC nobody is a lock. The any given Sunday rule ALWAYS applies. It would be foolhardy to think otherwise.

Now, there are clear cut prospects and I would rank them as follows:

Pats
Bolts
Colts
Ravens
Broncos
Jets

My wildcards (in more than one way. read: sleeper) would be:

Bengals
Steelers
Titans

My other possibilities include:

Jaguars
Dolphins

Obviously none of this means jack until 01/08. Heheh, Is it September yet?

 

[PatsFanInVa]

This is a simpleminded thread; fun, harmless, yadda yadda yadda, but simpleminded.

What we inevitably do when we go down this road is "predict" the previous season.

I do like the guy that broadened the spread to include the Ravens, Colts, and Bengals... but what do we REALLY know?

We know that something unexpected happens every year, that some team excels that we thought were so-so, and that (lately,) the Pats and the Colts are almost always still there by the divisional round.

Any/all of that could be out the window this year, or next year, or any given year. That even goes for our boys.

I just got reminded on another thread that silly predicting is what this time of year is for, so I'll try to stop being a drag now. It's the "certainty" that bothers me - read the title of this thread and try not to laugh... but to hell with it, these threads die when the games start.

PFnV