Who has easiest schedule? 2016 strength of schedule

[neuronet]

I know it is impossible to predict accurately, but it is the offseason and I'm sick of talking about Manzel's living arrangements....
2016 NFL Strength Of Schedule For Each Team: An Early Look At All 32 Teams

The Ravens schedule seems ridiculously light, but officially the Packers have the easiest SOS. Within the AFC, it is the Bengals that officially have it easiest, Jets and New England the toughest (for very different reasons).

But look at the Ravens schedule, especially the beginning of the season, it's easy street until the bye (I guess Oakland could be a threat, but it's home).
Sept. 11 vs. Buffalo
Sept. 18 at Cleveland
Sept. 25 at Jacksonville
Oct. 2 vs. Oakland
Oct. 9 vs. Washington
Oct. 16 at New York Giants
Oct. 23 at New York Jets
Oct. 30 BYE
Nov. 6 vs. Pittsburgh
Nov. 10 vs. Cleveland (Thursday)
Nov. 20 at Dallas
Nov. 27 vs. Cincinnati
Dec. 4 vs. Miami
Dec. 12 at New England
Dec. 18 vs. Philadelphia
Dec. 25 at Pittsburgh
Jan. 1 at Cincinnati

 

[Froob]

SOS prior to the season rarely matters, stuff changes too much season to season.

 

[neuronet]

SOS prior to the season rarely matters, stuff changes too much season to season.

Yes, which is why I put the caveat about this, but inter-season correlations are significant and Bills, Cleveland, Jacksonville are locks to suck. Patriots will not suck. Plus, as I said I'm sick of reading about who Manzel is living with...at least this is about football.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Too many things change too quickly for it to be meaningful, but if you sort it by W/L% or Point Differential, the Pats have the ninth toughest schedule. If you sort by Games v. Teams that won more than 8 games, they have the toughest schedule.

All things considered, that and 47 cents will get you a First Class Postage stamp.

 

[goheels22002]

I'm not sure strength of schedule based on the prior year means much any more.

The pace of change in the NFL between seasons is accelerating, it seems. Good players coming off their rookie deals see free agency as possibly their last shot at a big pay day, retirements by younger players with a history of concussions, and new head coach/GMs under pressure to make a splash are transforming teams for good or bad quickly.

The NFC East is a lava lamp with the bubbles up and down all the time, even in mid-season. Most divisions look that way, except the AFC East.

 

[Kontradiction]

I know it is impossible to predict accurately, but it is the offseason and I'm sick of talking about Manzel's living arrangements....
2016 NFL Strength Of Schedule For Each Team: An Early Look At All 32 Teams

The Ravens schedule seems ridiculously light, but officially the Packers have the easiest SOS. Within the AFC, it is the Bengals that officially have it easiest, Jets and New England the toughest (for very different reasons).

But look at the Ravens schedule, especially the beginning of the season, it's easy street until the bye (I guess Oakland could be a threat, but it's home).
Sept. 11 vs. Buffalo
Sept. 18 at Cleveland
Sept. 25 at Jacksonville
Oct. 2 vs. Oakland
Oct. 9 vs. Washington
Oct. 16 at New York Giants
Oct. 23 at New York Jets
Oct. 30 BYE
Nov. 6 vs. Pittsburgh
Nov. 10 vs. Cleveland (Thursday)
Nov. 20 at Dallas
Nov. 27 vs. Cincinnati
Dec. 4 vs. Miami
Dec. 12 at New England
Dec. 18 vs. Philadelphia
Dec. 25 at Pittsburgh
Jan. 1 at Cincinnati

You never know. Buffalo is not awful and their defense should be able to perform under Rex Ryan. Cleveland should get demolished but it's a division game so those are usually toss ups. Both the Jags and Raiders are two teams that have a good amount of talent and, if they can put it together, can be tough games for the Ravens. The Foreskins were a playoff team last year, the Giants are competitive and they'll be playing the Ravens in New York, and the Jets were close to being a playoff team this year and may be competitive again if they get Fitz. This is all way you can't take schedules too seriously before the season starts.

I remember the 2012 offseason where everyone and their mother thought the Pats had a cake schedule because they were playing the NFC West and the only good team to come out of that division was the 49ers. Not so much. That division handed them three losses that season.

 

[Tony2046]

FWIW, I copied the table and sorted it based on OPP win %. I enjoy looking at this stuff during the offseason but know that it can change dramatically via injury/coaching or 500 OPI flags. (Highlighted the AFCE) One observation is that GB's schedule may give them the leg up on SEA, ARI and CAR for HFA in the playoffs.



Reference: 2016 NFL Strength Of Schedule For Each Team: An Early Look At All 32 Teams (Link)

 

[TB12TheGoat]

Packers is stupid easy. They should go 14-2 at the least, barring injuries.

 

[Tony2046]

Packers is stupid easy. They should go 14-2 at the least, barring injuries.

I wish I had kept my SOS charts from last year or I wish I could find them but these SOS charts can completely flip flop by the end of the year.

For example: (based off of two SOS charts I found online)

Prior to the start of last season the Bengals had the 2nd toughest SOS but by Dec they were ranked 29th.

The Steelers lost Roethlisberger, the Ravens had key injuries, the Chargers got banged up, etc... so you never know.

 

[1960Pats]

I wish I had kept my SOS charts from last year or I wish I could find them but these SOS charts can completely flip flop by the end of the year.

For example: (based off of two SOS charts I found online)

Prior to the start of last season the Bengals had the 2nd toughest SOS but by Dec they were ranked 29th.

The Steelers lost Roethlisberger, the Ravens had key injuries, the Chargers got banged up, etc... so you never know.

I agree that you can't give a precise assessment of SOS because of those exceptions, but in general the same teams are at the top and the bottom each year with minor fluxuations. Fraudell's goal of parity has been as successful as his record in court.

In the AFC it's some combination of NE, Pitt, Cincy, Ratbirds, Indy, Denver and KC, with an occasional Houston, SD and even the Jests thrown in once in a while.

In the NFC it's Dallas, Gints off and on, GB, Detroit or Minny, Carolina, Seattle, Arizona and once in a while Philly.

 

[Ring 6]

I know it is impossible to predict accurately, but it is the offseason and I'm sick of talking about Manzel's living arrangements....
2016 NFL Strength Of Schedule For Each Team: An Early Look At All 32 Teams

The Ravens schedule seems ridiculously light, but officially the Packers have the easiest SOS. Within the AFC, it is the Bengals that officially have it easiest, Jets and New England the toughest (for very different reasons).

But look at the Ravens schedule, especially the beginning of the season, it's easy street until the bye (I guess Oakland could be a threat, but it's home).
Sept. 11 vs. Buffalo
Sept. 18 at Cleveland
Sept. 25 at Jacksonville
Oct. 2 vs. Oakland
Oct. 9 vs. Washington
Oct. 16 at New York Giants
Oct. 23 at New York Jets
Oct. 30 BYE
Nov. 6 vs. Pittsburgh
Nov. 10 vs. Cleveland (Thursday)
Nov. 20 at Dallas
Nov. 27 vs. Cincinnati
Dec. 4 vs. Miami
Dec. 12 at New England
Dec. 18 vs. Philadelphia
Dec. 25 at Pittsburgh
Jan. 1 at Cincinnati

Baltimore is not a good football team. They will be 3-4 at the bye and. 4-5 after it.

 

[Wheelman]

The Patriots. Duuuuuuuuuuuh! 19-0 here we come boys.

 

[Tony2046]

I agree that you can't give a precise assessment of SOS because of those exceptions, but in general the same teams are at the top and the bottom each year with minor fluxuations. Fraudell's goal of parity has been as successful as his record in court.

In the AFC it's some combination of NE, Pitt, Cincy, Ratbirds, Indy, Denver and KC, with an occasional Houston, SD and even the Jests thrown in once in a while.

In the NFC it's Dallas, Gints off and on, GB, Detroit or Minny, Carolina, Seattle, Arizona and once in a while Philly.

Yes I mostly agree. I'm just having a little fun looking at the sos chart. I'll keep it and gauge it throughout the season and find out how much it changes.

This chart is the difference between the preseason SOS and a Dec SOS for 2015. Negative indicates the schedule easier than the preseason SOS predicted. 16 team's SOS changed by double digits last season.





Side Note: Since the salary cap era began (1994) there have been 22 different teams in the last 22 SB's. The prior 28 SB's had 19 different teams. 30 different teams have made to the SB in total.

Teams that stay on top usually are there because of or a combination of a great coach, a quality front office and/or top players at key positions. SOS may impact a top team a game or two but its the best teams with the best health that make it to the playoffs.

 

[FCB02062]

I fully expect Baltimore to be the Pats biggest challenger. They Had a ton of injuries last year, they're a good team, and they're playing a 3d place schedule

 

[Tony2046]

I fully expect Baltimore to be the Pats biggest challenger. They Had a ton of injuries last year, they're a good team, and they're playing a 3d place schedule

They are playing a 19th place schedule but I agree with you that they are a good team.

 

[FCB02062]

They are playing a 19th place schedule but I agree with you that they are a good team.

Opponents r based on finish in division, hence 3d place sched

 

[Big Bucks]

I'm worried about that Ravens schedule, has all the hallmarks of a total team collapse that could see Harbaugh losing his job. Which we don't want do we.

 

[SammyBlueCat]

When is the coach's poll published?

 

[Wordsmyth]

32nd--Harbawl.

 

[supafly]

I fully expect Baltimore to be the Pats biggest challenger. They Had a ton of injuries last year, they're a good team, and they're playing a 3d place schedule

I can't really get on board with the idea that they'll necessarily be the "Pats biggest challenger," but I also find the comments that they'll suck rather amusing.

At the end of the day, they're usually a 9-10 win team who is consistently inconsistent, but is almost always a pain in our asses. That's pretty much what I expect from the Baltimore Ravens just about every year. They are normally a contender for at least a WC spot, and I'd find this year to be no different.