I have to take further exception to luck. Really guys. There are, realistically, unpredictable situations. Then there are predictable ones, and ways to make your own luck. Ever hear of the tip drill?
When I hear about how good luck a team seems to have with turnovers, I have to laugh. Some teams consistently do well with the +/- turnover ratio. When it's us, I don't hear anything about luck.
As to injuries: Injuries will happen to every team. You mitigate that risk through depth, another department the Pats have excelled in. So Neon Dion is out... oh look, seems we have 2 of everything in the backfield, more or less - so next man up. White, as I recall? Sometimes you're SOL because you're 2 deep and injuries get 'em both. How can you mitigate that risk? By reserving a pool of money for in-season pickups.
The Giants may or may not have similarly successful mitigation strategies; I have not obsessed on them. But it is all a chess game. Yes, probabilistic analysis is part of the game, because "luck" is part of the game. But what does your team do to make sure it's there at the end?
Can your team make sure it's there at the end regularly? Only if it is very good at mitigating risks and therefore minimize the impact of "bad luck."
In-game, against the Gintz, we all remember some luck that didn't go our way (combined with obstacles, such as the Eli sack that was never called in the would-be perfect season). But you have to ask, how important is that "luck" if we're up a few more points at the time at which it happens. We haven't been so good in the big games getting a big lead. Hey the other guys get paid too.
Call me crazy, but the 4 wins have made that okay for me. Yeah I'd prefer 6, freakin' Gintz. But at some point you just have to say "We lost that game." Stop with the luck already everybody.
Here is why the Giants gave the Patriots trouble in the past and comparing those teams and situations to this ones.
#1 Coughlin is a good coach so your coaching edge is lessened a large amount
#2 Eli has always seemed to play his better games against us
#3 They had very good talent that elevated its game particularly against us and in the very big games
#4 Luck and injuries... Brady hurt, Gronk hurt, Big catches, big drops, They seem to get those ball bounces against us and (KEY!) take advantage of them
#5 They tend to start off games well against us. Generally they get a lead or keep us from jumping on them so we never have a chance to force the pace.
So lets look at which of these is the case and which is not.
#1 Yep. Coughlin is there and won't throw up all over himself
#2 Eli is playing well right now. I would expect him to play a good game against us.
The next 3 will be more in depth
#3 Looking back at these games we often underrated their talent and then it played and they play great. Ask yourself this question. Is there anyone on this roster who is capable of having a really great game on defense particularly? JPP? He can do well and definitely has talent but he has half a hand and even with our meh OT situation we should still be able to get in his way for 2 seconds on his best day. Generally I think if the Pats lose this game it will not be cause the NYG talent elevated as much as the Pats just had a ba game. I don't see them having the talent capable of being a top team even for 1 game.
#4 Well the injury side of Luck is certainly on their side. They come in the more healthy team than the Pats. As for ball bounces we will see. They tend to get turnovers though.
#5 Can they get off to a fast start against the Patriots? It is possible. I could see them getting an early TO or a Beckham making a big catch. However I like the way this D is playing and the Patriots have been good about not allowing too many bad plays. That Redskins game will be helpful as the Pats made 2 key mistakes that might have taken 14 points off the board and almost allowed a pick 6. They will probably come in to this game more aware and susceptible to those big mistakes cause they just made them.
So yes. Some of those things which caused those loses to be possible are still there and have the potential to be there but some look to me to be missing this time around.
