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I agree, but the pats have never been as healthy as they are now - at least since 2007. the losses to the giants in 2011, jets in 2010, ravens in 2012 and broncos in 2013 can be attributed in a large part to key players like gronk or talib being injured.

I agree 100%. I feel pretty confident in this game, for basically two reasons: 1) Since the loss in 2012, we're adding Gronk and Revis, two absolute game changers. 2) Since the loss in 2012, the Ravens have lost two huge defensive leaders in Lewis and Reed.

But I definitely understand why a lot of fans have a pit in their stomach. It's hard to shake tough losses like that.
 
I agree 100%. I feel pretty confident in this game, for basically two reasons: 1) Since the loss in 2012, we're adding Gronk and Revis, two absolute game changers. 2) Since the loss in 2012, the Ravens have lost two huge defensive leaders in Lewis and Reed.

But I definitely understand why a lot of fans have a pit in their stomach. It's hard to shake tough losses like that.

And we beat this same ravens team who was fighting for a playoff spot last year 41-7 without Gronk. Now we add gronk, revis, browner, ayers, casillas and lafell?
 
Very good post. Point by point.

1. Torrey Smith is a bit tougher than everyone thinks, but even with SS they miss Boldin. There will be some quarters mixed in with the man coverage with Collins or Nink as the spy once or twice. You will see 5 or 6 zone blitzes. At least one pick.

2. Browner always plays very tight. He can't stay with Torrey Smith so he won't be on him without help over the top. If he is in man against TS without help he will see some deep balls.

3. I don't think the refs will be that important. There will be one or two controversial calls. The Ravens are less of a finesse team than the Pats so penalties should hurt them more. But like you I'd rather they let them play.

4. They will play six OL on several series with Fleming and Cannon. Other than Ngata, the Ravens DL is not that big. The Texans ran on them. If they can't win this battle they won't win the game.

5. Zone blitzes and inside crossing stunts. The Ravens OL can be susceptible to both. IMHO, Steelers didn't use those effectively enough.

6. Overload blitzes. They're going to play the same scheme the Jets played. That's the same scheme they played in 2012. They will play man and use half a dozen variants of overload blitzes. TB, JE and especially Shane Vereen can make a big difference here away from the overload and in the middle of the field. Then you'll see some vanilla 5-2 in quarters or cover 3 with a rover/money/monster which they will change out of just before the snap, trying to give Brady nothing to read.

7. Brady struggled in the 2011 AFCCG and the 2012 AFCCG, both against the Ravens. I think the two biggest differences this year are a healthy Gronk and two weeks to prepare.

8. Like the Jets, they will double Gonk and hit him coming off the LOS to throw off the Brady-Gronk timing just a bit. So McD will double and triple stack him inside and out. I think Wright would be good for this both inside and out. It would not be shocking if Wright had a very good game.

Differences from the 2012 AFCCG - bigger, tougher wide receivers, Gronk and much better Pats defense at most positions, especially the toughness and depth on the D-line.

NE 24-20. Tough, physical, tight game.
 
An outstanding effort, easily deserving a detailed response just because you saved me the time to do my own.
  • People are talking of who will cover who. I don't think the Pats will lock Revis on one guy all game and move him depending on the situation, but for the most part I would probably put Revis on Steve Smith Sr. and Browner on Torrey Smith. Neither Smith has been consistent lately so both could be non-factors or monsters this weekend. I would put Browner on Torrey Smith because Smith is a soft player who has a tendency to quit when he is manhandled and he runs very uncomplicated routes. Steve Smith Sr. runs a lot more complicated routes which is more in Revis' wheelhouse.
The is the first explanation I've seen that made sense to me to have Revis on SSmith as the primary match up. I can see how beating up TSmith with Browner and help over the top could be an effective move.

The second key point you make, and it can't be made enough. All the match ups we talk about shouldn't be used exclusively. One of big advantages we have this game is a defense that has the kind of position flexibility that we can consistently disguise our intentions pre-snap. I do NOT want to give Flacco the comfort of knowing where Revis or Browner will be when he comes to the LOS. Or Hightower or Collins for that matter. I want him constantly having to search them out and have to figure out what who they are on and what it means, and once he finally does (and he's NOT that cerebral to begin with), be something different after the ball is snapped.

We have the depth and talent on this defense to be able to mess with any QB's head, including Peyton, and Flacco aint no Payton.
  • On the subject of Browner, the popular theory today is that Flacco should throw a lot of jump balls in his direction and collect the PI penalties. The thing is most of Browner's contact penalties are more of the illegal contact and holding variety closer to the line of scrimmage. Browner's game is playing physical off the line of scrimmage and knocking players off their routes. Not as much, physical down the field.
Good to see most Pats fans have been savvy enough to come to grips with Browner assets and limitations. For me, his coverage has been better than I expected. I really like what I see when they play him in a tight 4 or 5 man under zone. He does a great job recognizing an blowing up screen and quick passes.
  • On that subject, whoever is reffing this game will be important. Flacco loves the jump ball and trying to draw the penalty. We don't want to see a flag happy crew. Usually in the playoffs, they let players play. But this weekend, the flags flew way too much. They seem to be more flag happy this playoff season than during the regular season. Granted because of the picked up PI flag yesterday, they may be easing up on the flags next weekend.
The ONLY scenario where I can see us losing this game is the one that similar to what happened to the Steelers. 114-14. I repeat 114-14. That was the difference in penalty yardage in that game. I can't remember that kind of disparity in penalties in a playoff game before. Add the 3-0 turnover ratio and that's how they won. It's amazing that had the Ravens not gotten that very ticky tack holding call on a Steeler TD, it would have been a one score game with time to get the ball back and score.

So it isn't JUST the flags that scare me, I'm afraid of the kind of one sided game we saw in Pittsburgh. I'm not surprised at the outrage at the Cowboy call, but that was just ONE blown call at a critical time. The Steeler game was just one call after another ALL going against one side. Where is the outrage on that.

BTW- BB was right again....as usual. There should be no problem with challenging EVERY play, as long as coaches are limited to 2 flags a game (3 if you're right the first 2 times)
  • t the o-line and its problems, the o-line has not been nearly as bad as people make it. Prior to the Jets game (where Connolly and Brady's safety blanket, Edelman, were out), the Pats gave up foAll this talk abouur sacks in the previous eight games. The o-line has been an issue at times in recent weeks, but at full strength (like it should this weekend) it hasn't been an issue like people make it.
Preaching to the choir man. And even if our worst nightmares are realized and Brady is sacked 3 times in the first quarter, I have confidence that they will figure it out and stem the deluge. The Pats will see a lot of the same kind of blitzes the Steeler saw.

Pease is no idiot. He has a very bad secondary to mask, and there are only 2 ways to do that. One is keep them in a shell zone and keep everything in front of them and wait for the offense to get impatient and make a mistake. (also known as the Jack Del Rio method.) The other is to attack the QB so he has to get rid of the ball quickly so it all happens in front of the secondary. Given that the Raven's defensive stgrengths are all in the front 7, he wisely chose the later. No one carves up static zone coverages like Tom Brady.....even on his bad days.

We should be prepared to weather the first wave of the storm that we know is going to happen. If they see something they aren't prepared for, its gonna look bad. But even in the Jets game, once they got it down, there was only one more sack in the final 3 quarters.. Don';t forget that despite the PERCEPTION, the Steelers threw for over 350 yds and at a 7o% completion rate.

BTW- a lot of the early problems the Steelers had with the Raven rush came from bad play by their TE's and RB's The Pats are much better in both those areas as it pertains to the pass protection.
  • Speaking of o-lines, no one is talking about the Ravens' depleted o-line. There is a good chance that both their starting tackles will be out. The Ravens lost their starting RT for the season on week 16 and Eugene Monroe, their starting LT, hasn't practiced in a few weeks. His replacement was owned by an aged James Harrison on Saturday. A hopefully fully healthy Chandler Jones should have a field day with him. The Pats don't have the greatest pass rush (although vastly underrated especially since people don't understand that Belichick likes to use contain rush against mobile QBs), but is certainly is better than the Steelers' pass rush.

It should be no surprise that Mike Florio has declared that the Ravens are a "complete team",
"hard to find a weakness" in any of the 3 aspects of the game. Yes, its not going to be easy, but the Ravens have what it takes to win this game.

Of course we'd expect no less from Florio, who traded his Steeler loyalty for Harbaugh love faster than a dog tracks down his dish when he hears the can opener turn on. No Rob, this is going to be a football discussion ALL week, where the Pats are the only team with issues and negatives. I LOVE IT., It might be the only time in NFL history where the team that's the 7 point favorite will be surprise people if they "somehow" manage to win. I mean who cares if the Ravens have only managed to win 2 games against teams over 500. Doesn't matter. The Pats lost against the Bills and barely beat the Jets.
  • It is a fallacy that Brady and the offense always struggles vs. the Ravens. They scored 41 points last tie they met (granted it is on the legs of Blount). In the regular season of 2012, the Pats scored 30 points and the Ravens won on a questionable field goal by the Ravens at the end of regulation.
    Never let the facts get in the way of a good Felger rant, Rob. You should know that by now.
I'm really going to enjoy this week. I'm not going to rail against the tide of fear-mongering that will be perpetrated by many who know better, but will do it anyway and defend it as "entertainment" Maybe BB has conspired with them all to do nothing but sing the praises of all thing Ravens, while he builds that chip on his team's shoulder all week.

This is Just like how it was before the Bengal game, remember? How it was before the Colt game. How it was before the Denver Game. Its actually kind of ironic that the narrative started to change a bit before the Packer game. And now suddenly its started to shift back again,

The Problem is that AFTER this game the secret is going to be out. The meditots will flip on the dime without a moments remorse. They will all be talking about the unstoppable dynamo the Pats are. They will suddenly remember that this a team that hasn't allowed a TD in the 2nd half for almost 2 months. This is the 2nd highest scoring offense. This is a team that can beat you with its special teams.

They will all come to realize that THIS truly is BB's best team since 2007. And you know what's scary. Its still a year away from being finished (the OL rebuild). I'm always stunned that while he conducted this top to bottom rebuild (2010 to present), he gotten flawed and unlucky teams to 3 AFCCG's and a superbowl
 
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7. Brady struggled in the 2011 AFCCG and the 2012 AFCCG, both against the Ravens. I think the two biggest differences this year are a healthy Gronk and two weeks to prepare.

Gronk was healthy in 2011, so that wasn't what bothered Tom. The issue was that NE relies on scheme and misdirection to create openings, so smart defenses with instinctive players regularly give them trouble. It's also why it appears that NE will outsmart themselves at times - they'll go out of their way to confuse when the players are already winning their 1:1 match ups.
 
Gronk was healthy in 2011, so that wasn't what bothered Tom. The issue was that NE relies on scheme and misdirection to create openings, so smart defenses with instinctive players regularly give them trouble. It's also why it appears that NE will outsmart themselves at times - they'll go out of their way to confuse when the players are already winning their 1:1 match ups.

You're right. Gronk was healthy in the 2011 AFCCG. I was talking about the 2012 AFCCG but didn't make that clear.

You're also right that the Pats run a high percentage of misdirection plays, though I would call it a precision, controlled offense. But I don't really understand how that means they fail by running misdirection plays or other non-power schemes when they are winning 1:1 matchups.
 
oh, you are going to get killed on this board for having that opinion. Cue the Chicken Little comments.

The comments lack logic and are stupid.

It actually says more about anyone trying to defend them.

Do the Ravens have this great momentum? By definition any team that wins Wild Card Weekend has "momentum"........what's the point of earning a bye then?

Last year, the Patriots rolled into Baltimore and obliterated the Ravens. Where is this a part of the calculation in Chicken Little land? Isn't the most relevant piece the most important?

Again, exactly how many all world, historic, one for the ages Dline/ front 7's have the Patriots faced this year? By now it must be about 50. Every week the same clowns say the same stupid things that don't work in reality...........why should it not be laughed at?
 
Here we go:
  • People are talking of who will cover who. I don't think the Pats will lock Revis on one guy all game and move him depending on the situation, but for the most part I would probably put Revis on Steve Smith Sr. and Browner on Torrey Smith. Neither Smith has been consistent lately so both could be non-factors or monsters this weekend. I would put Browner on Torrey Smith because Smith is a soft player who has a tendency to quit when he is manhandled and he runs very uncomplicated routes. Steve Smith Sr. runs a lot more complicated routes which is more in Revis' wheelhouse.

I would put Browner on Steve Smith. Browner is more physical and S. Smith can't control his temper. Steve Smith doesn't just get taken out of his game when he's constantly bumped off his routes and covered very physically. He gets extremely pi**ed! Then draws 15 yard penalties by the boatload and risks getting tossed in addition to it getting in his head.
 
Last year, the Patriots rolled into Baltimore and obliterated the Ravens. Where is this a part of the calculation in Chicken Little land? Isn't the most relevant piece the most important?
It won't be because it wasn't in the playoffs.
 
But I don't really understand how that means they fail by running misdirection plays or other non-power schemes when they are winning 1:1 matchups.

It means they will get cute when they don't have to.
 
Do the Ravens have this great momentum? By definition any team that wins Wild Card Weekend has "momentum"........what's the point of earning a bye then?

Great line. I still recall the Jets going into the playoffs on a high note, and then curb stomping the Colts 41-0. Everyone and their brother - including me - thought they were rolling and would take down a good, but not great Oakland team. Instead they were dispatched in relatively easy fashion, 30-10.
 
I would put Browner on Steve Smith. Browner is more physical and S. Smith can't control his temper. Steve Smith doesn't just get taken out of his game when he's constantly bumped off his routes and covered very physically. He gets extremely pi**ed! Then draws 15 yard penalties by the boatload and risks getting tossed in addition to it getting in his head.

The last time the Pats decided to take the physical approach with Steve Smith, a certain Patriots CB got a personal foul and was almost ejected from the game and then was told to "ice up, son". Smith does play with an edge, but he can get the best of the guy defending him.
 
We can count the jets game and bills game out wrt to sacks but Brady has been under pressure since the GB game. The SD game solder was manhandled by ingram and that defense constantly got to brady. So while the sack #s are down , brady's hits have been high.

BTW, great chat with bruschi today

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/boston/chat/_/id/51496
 
Its going to be a close game decided by 7 or less. I believe NE will win but also start out slow.

Same old defensive formula vs Brady and NE.

Ravens D
1. Get Brady off his spot.
2. Knock Brady down as much as possible.
3. Drop into 8 coverage and rush 3.
4. Take away Bradys bread and butter short to intermediate routes.
5 Be physical with NE WRs and ball carriers.

Pats O
1. NE cannot become 1 dimensional like Pitt so they have to establish the run.
2. Play action keeps the Ravens guessing and back on their heels.
3. Would be nice to see Brady hit a deep ball early for a change.
4. Gronk and Edelman will be priorities for double teams. LaFell, Vereen, Wright and even Almendola must step it up in the passing game.
I hope they dont waste downs throwing deep to Tyms. The ravens are going to flood the middle of the field and force brady to throw outside. Know JMcD , he will try and stretch the field by going deep which is the right strategy , I dont think we have the players for it. Ravens are tough to run on but we need to somehow establish the run to get PA and Gronk going.
 
Ravens struggle in defending TEs. Pats have two pretty good ones. Maybe its time to unleash them!
 
I would put Browner on Steve Smith. Browner is more physical and S. Smith can't control his temper. Steve Smith doesn't just get taken out of his game when he's constantly bumped off his routes and covered very physically. He gets extremely pi**ed! Then draws 15 yard penalties by the boatload and risks getting tossed in addition to it getting in his head.

No, don't do this. They will try to murder each other and will end up getting suspended for the rest of the year.
 
Great line. I still recall the Jets going into the playoffs on a high note, and then curb stomping the Colts 41-0. Everyone and their brother - including me - thought they were rolling and would take down a good, but not great Oakland team. Instead they were dispatched in relatively easy fashion, 30-10.
It happens every year. Some team looks great WC weekend then shows up to play a top-2 seed and gets trounced and everyone remembers there's a reason four teams are sitting at home having earned their bye week. I'm looking at you, IND.
 
It happens every year. Some team looks great WC weekend then shows up to play a top-2 seed and gets trounced and everyone remembers there's a reason four teams are sitting at home having earned their bye week. I'm looking at you, IND.

That's the biggest reason why I was disappointed Pitt lost. Not because I'm terrified of Baltimore, but because it gives Denver another bye week.
 
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