Upcoming Game Thoughts:

[juny]

Just no Matthew Slater bombs on Saturday

 

[mosi]

I have been watching the 2013 game over the last week and nobody should get the idea it was a blow-out. The Pats offense and defense was great in the first half and Brady was pumped and angry. The second half was rougher but the Defense for the most part held its own. The Ravens had no run game and Flacco was on a bum knee.

With that said, the Pats offense is better this year than last and so is the defense. If the Pats don't make stupid mistakes and turn the ball over, I could see something like 20-7 or 24-10.

 

[reflexblue]

i'm not worried about winning the game, i'm worried about the physical toll its going to take. These games are usually a football version of Rock um Sock um Robots. While the pats and ravens beat the hell out of each other denver will play a finesse team in the colts.

 

[50-yard-line]

It is a fallacy that Brady and the offense always struggles vs. the Ravens. They scored 41 points last tie they met (granted it is on the legs of Blount). In the regular season of 2012, the Pats scored 30 points and the Ravens won on a questionable field goal by the Ravens at the end of regulation.

Forget the damned field goal - the pass interference/holding call on McCourty that led to the comeback was AWFUL!

 

[Oswlek]

Forget the damned field goal - the pass interference/holding call on McCourty that led to the comeback was AWFUL!

Call? There were no less than 7 blatantly erroneous calls with only one, a bizarre unsportsmanlike penalty on the coach, going against Baltimore. That was the worst officiated game I've ever. The fact that it ended on a missed field goal called good just seemed so fitting.

 

[mayoclinic]

Some thoughts from Tedy Bruschi's chat:

think this is going to be a big test for the Patriots' front in terms of stopping the run. This is a team that is committed to running the football. They're one of the best OL in the league in terms of getting movement along the line of scrimmage. The stat I'm pointing to: In the regular season, they were second in the NFL in terms of yards before contact. So running back Justin Forsett is getting a clean entry into the line of scrimmage. An interesting thing to note is that yards after contact per rush, the Ravens are No. 28. What that means is Forsett is getting through the holes well, but he's an easier tackle. I shouldn't say easy tackle, but let's just say he's not Marshawn Lynch (the Seahawks are No. 1 in yards after contact per rush).

This is the game where I feel Jerod Mayo's presence will be mostly missed. I think the Ravens are going to come out and make the Patriots play regular defense. That means taking a talented secondary player off the field with more base offensive formations, and the Patriots will match that with their regular 4-3 defense. So this is going to be an expanded role for Jonathan Casillas as a third linebacker or Alan Branch as the fifth defensive lineman depending on what package they call on. This isn't a team that spreads you out like Peyton Manning and the Broncos, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers etc.

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/boston/chat/_/id/51496

 

[rochrist]

I agree 100%. I feel pretty confident in this game, for basically two reasons: 1) Since the loss in 2012, we're adding Gronk and Revis, two absolute game changers. 2) Since the loss in 2012, the Ravens have lost two huge defensive leaders in Lewis and Reed.

But I definitely understand why a lot of fans have a pit in their stomach. It's hard to shake tough losses like that.

Not to mention Browner and the best bust pick in the league Collins.

 

[patsfanincleveland]

To them, yes. Because it was the playoffs.

makes sense

 

[goheels22002]

This game comes down to sacks and turnovers. Win both battles, and win the game. Both teams do an excellent job protecting their QBs and both QBs take good care of the ball.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/passing/sort/sacks/seasontype/2 (Garoppolo took five of the Patriots' 26 sacks in the chart).

Flacco was sacked only 19 times (2nd in the NFL) and threw only 12 intereceptions (4th in the NFL) all season. Brady was sacked 21 times (would be good for 3rd in the NFL) and threw only 9 interceptions (4th in the NFL).

On defense, the Ravens only had 11 interceptions all season vs 16 for the Patriots. The Ravens were monsters getting after the passer with 49 sacks (3 per game) compared to the Patriots' 40 (2.5 per game). But make no mistake, both teams get to the passer. If anything, the Patriots should be better in rushing the passer on Saturday with a healthy Chandler Jones and depth on the interior with Siliga back.

 

[patfanken]

Some thoughts from Tedy Bruschi's chat:




http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/boston/chat/_/id/51496

I don't see the run being a big part of EITHER team's game plan. The Ravens ranked 2nd in the league in run D, and the Pats ranked 9th, and over the last half of they year has been in the top 5. The Ratbirds managed to gleen only 49 yds against a Steeler D that is ranked only marginally better in Rushing D. The Steelers weren't much better only managing 80 against Baltimore

That being said, I think the Pats have better rushing weapons in Blount/Gray and Vareen. The Ravens have the better defensive front. All things considered, I'd take that 80 total yds and about 20 carries that Pittsburgh managed without their top offensive weapon. Anything more that those totals I'd take as a very good sign

 

[mayoclinic]

I don't see the run being a big part of EITHER team's game plan. The Ravens ranked 2nd in the league in run D, and the Pats ranked 9th, and over the last half of they year has been in the top 5. The Ratbirds managed to gleen only 49 yds against a Steeler D that is ranked only marginally better in Rushing D. The Steelers weren't much better only managing 80 against Baltimore

That being said, I think the Pats have better rushing weapons in Blount/Gray and Vareen. The Ravens have the better defensive front. All things considered, I'd take that 80 total yds and about 20 carries that Pittsburgh managed without their top offensive weapon. Anything more that those totals I'd take as a very good sign

I think whichever team can run the ball effectively will have a significant advantage. It doesn't have to be about putting up big yards, but it will set up play action and keep the blitz in check.

I do think that the Pats play better out of sub than in base, so keeping them in base is a key strategic move.

 

[pork3]

Just no Matthew Slater bombs on Saturday

Haven't you heard, this year, those classic Slater bombs have been replaced with the sparse but ever so efficent Tyms bombs. Admittedly, Tyms is actually a receiver, so the chances of a successful play there, taking into account Brady's questionnable accuracy on deep throws, is actually more than 5%.

-Jamman

 

[TomPatriot]

i'm not worried about winning the game, i'm worried about the physical toll its going to take. These games are usually a football version of Rock um Sock um Robots. While the pats and ravens beat the hell out of each other denver will play a finesse team in the colts.

I wonder. The Bills and Jets games were physical and the Pats went on to trounce the Bears, Broncos, Colts and Lions in the next four games.

That's the biggest reason why I was disappointed Pitt lost. Not because I'm terrified of Baltimore, but because it gives Denver another bye week.

If Denver thinks the Colts are a bye week, the next time they play will be in July.

 

[patfanken]

I think whichever team can run the ball effectively will have a significant advantage. It doesn't have to be about putting up big yards, but it will set up play action and keep the blitz in check.

I do think that the Pats play better out of sub than in base, so keeping them in base is a key strategic move.

True, being able to consistently make 3rd and 2's on the ground and get into the endzone by rushing inside the 5 will go a lot longer toward determining a winner than who has the most 15 yd gains on the ground.

Also the NUMBER of rushes could have a bigger impact that the total number gained. Anything over 20 for the Pats is likely to mean good things for them
'

 

[Oswlek]

If Denver thinks the Colts are a bye week, the next time they play will be in July.

The Colts are not good. Denver can think as lowly as they want and Indy still has about a 10% chance of winning. Maybe less.

 

[Oswlek]

I do think that the Pats play better out of sub than in base, so keeping them in base is a key strategic move.

My question is how would Baltimore keep NE out of sub? By going bigger and running more? I can live with that as I think Baltimore's run success is overstated. They played so many terrible run defenses this year (Pitt, Carolina, Cleveland, SD and NO are all in the bottom ten in defensive ypc - if DVOA is your thing, then you'll find Carolina, Cincy, Cleveland, NO and Atlanta in the lower tier) that it is hard to get a legitimate read on them. The only defense they faced all year in the top 10 in both DVOA and ypc carry was Tampa. Houston was next at 10th in ypc and 16th in DVOA.

So, if Baltimore thinks their best shot is just lining up and running at what they perceive to be as a weak NE front, I can live with that.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

The Colts are not good. Denver can think as lowly as they want and Indy still has about a 10% chance of winning. Maybe less.

Yet the colts almost beat them earlier in the year in Denver....

 

[Oswlek]

Yet the colts almost beat them earlier in the year in Denver....

Meh. Denver had that game won and let up. And Indy hasn't been anywhere near the team they were in September/October for weeks now.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Meh. Denver had that game won and let up. And Indy hasn't been anywhere near the team they were in September/October for weeks now.

They looked solid yesterday, even if it was against cincy...i don't indy will win but one can hope

 

[mayoclinic]

My question is how would Baltimore keep NE out of sub? By going bigger and running more? I can live with that as I think Baltimore's run success is overstated. They played so many terrible run defenses this year (Pitt, Carolina, Cleveland, SD and NO are all in the bottom ten in defensive ypc - if DVOA is your thing, then you'll find Carolina, Cincy, Cleveland, NO and Atlanta in the lower tier) that it is hard to get a legitimate read on them. The only defense they faced all year in the top 10 in both DVOA and ypc carry was Tampa. Houston was next at 10th in ypc and 16th in DVOA.

So, if Baltimore thinks their best shot is just lining up and running at what they perceive to be as a weak NE front, I can live with that.

I think the Pats' defense is one of the 3-4 best in the NFL, and it will be a very tough challenge for the Ravens. It's strength is probably the secondary, so in general I think making the Pats exchange an extra DB for a front 7 player is favorable for the opponent. I also think that the Pats have been more creative scheming pressure out of the sub packages, and that they would be able to confuse and rattle Flacco more. But I agree, it will take more than just trying to run the ball down our throats for the Ravens to be successful.