Eating Pot Roast- Exposing An Overrated and Flawed Run D

[jays52]

So this is my laptop view today. They're going to run all over Denver tomorrow night. Edit and in-depth breakdown coming soon

 

[Oswlek]

{popcorn smiley}

 

[Silver Blue&Red]

The suspense is killing me.

 

[SVN]

while Iam hopefull and jays52 knows more than most, pot-roast killed our oline in the AFCCG in cruscial situations and he is going against a rookie center. Looking forward to the breakdown.

 

[Bonzo]

Man, I hope so - can only help. Brady's been killing with the PA of late.

 

[jays52]

We'll start this with the fundamental key of Denver's run defense. Everything, and I mean everything, starts and ends with 98 up front. They very, very rarely move him around. He plays nose, almost always in a 1-technique (outside shoulder of the center) and sometimes takes such large splits that he's almost playing a 2i (inside shoulder of the guard), as shown below against New Jersey.


The other two fundamental components of their defense are also shown in this screen grab. 1) look at how wide the splits of the ends are here. Now this looks to be an obvious pass situation which would explain the end splits, but they play this wide almost universally with Ware playing 90% of the time standing up. This does not, however make him a linebacker. He's playing end from a two point. They don't drop him. Lol, Del Rio is not a bright man. 93 is in this play to give Miller a rest, but this position is being played the same. Same split, same stance. Miller plays with his hand in the dirt almost universally. I will take Vollmer (and especially Cannon) on him in the run game all day long. 2) Notice how the linebackers are covered by the tackles. Denver is undersized at linebacker and they do not do well when reached by linemen so they do their best to protect them up front. Their run defense gets a lot of credit, but don't let it fool you. This team is still designed to stop the pass.

Going back to Knighton. Again, he's aligned in a shaded technique which means he's going to one gap. I know this is pretty basic stuff but best to cover all the bases. Knighton has the power to two-gap but his game (read Denver's entire scheme) revolves almost entirely on getting into the backfield on the snap. He does this very well. Often times he swims immediately on the snap and is in the backfield right away.

When Knighton gets in the backfield, bad things happen. They may be undersized but with comes with that is good team speed. The ends come hard upfield off the edge, the linebackers rapidly flow and that means they're very good in pursuit and mopping up plays that 98 busts up in the backfield. When that doesn't happen?

You get cutbacks you can drive a truck through. Here we have a combo block on Knighton even though he is the backside tackle in this instance. Why? Because Arizona is taking advantage of Denver's tendency to overpursue.

 

[obgod3]

Pretty good stuff.

I'm still worried about ware, miller and the LB's speed overall.

 

[Marqui]

We really should be worried about our own flawed run D.

 

[jays52]

Looking through the game film I found several instances of Denver getting beaten in the run game. Almost universally these came off of exploiting this pursuit tendency and ear-holing Knighton. As 98 goes so does the entire Denver running game. Remember, TJ Ward would be their biggest linebacker and I know 94's name but he's not DeMarcus Ware anymore. They're fast, but they also are far from disciplined. For the 3,000th time this is a pursuit team. I cannot overstate this. BB has a long history of exploiting pursuit teams. So, how is this accomplished?

If Batman has taught us anything it is that theatricality and deception are powerful agents against the uninitiated...and they are not initiated, are they, Josh? Denver's opponents have put eight to ten plays on film where they took advantage of their pursuit with, for lack of a better term, trick plays. Most notably what looks like a zone read but is a handoff to the slot receiver coming off of the formation and getting the linebackers to bite on the dive. I expect a handoff to Edelman to happen in the first quarter. If they start running zones at Miller they are setting it up.

While the game is not TNF, I am expecting a throwback look. The two tight end offense, ah what a beautiful set. What made it so good in the run game is that, with motion, TE's can very easily "do fullback". In this case, this means wham blocking. Exploit Knighton's upfield play and use Gronk to functionally trap him while you get a guard or center to the second level. Essentially a counter.

Speaking of pulling and counters, Wendell has been a whipping post for a lot of us (myself included) but I think he does a handful of things pretty well. His game is largely predicated on developing a head of steam. Not ideal for a lineman, but when pulled, ah that is where he can excel. Again, take advantage of this upfield tendency, trap him and create large lanes.

I know this is basically how to beat pursuit teams 101, but thats exactly what they are. Denver is statistically excellent in the running game because, well, they usually don't get run on all that much. Running the ball takes time. It needs to be established. It needs setting up. It's very much like power punching. A lead hook on it's own is pretty ineffective, but draw in the opponents guard with your jab or throw it over a countering straight or parry and you have a devastating weapon. Such is the same in the running game. When you have forehead on the other side playing flag football time becomes an issue and accordingly the run game is jettisoned. Now, disrupt the timing of the forehead (which I fully expect NE to do) and you have time to develop a robust, multidimensional offensive attack...which is how this game is going to play out.

 

[obgod3]

So overall how do you call this game? I think as some else mentioned NE is suspect in run defense themselves. PM can take advantage of that.

 

[jays52]

We really should be worried about our own flawed run D.

That doesn't worry me much. They're going to move Wilfork around to create matchup issues in the running game. It's pretty clear that's their new strategy in the running game and it worked beautifully early against Chicago. Linebackers also did a great job of filling better and they've been getting better every week in that regard. Sheerly from a personnel standpoint, they're actually one of the best teams in the league defending the run in sub which will be a major component of defending Manning. Manny Sanders is what worries me. Death by a thousand cuts.

 

[JMC00]

We really should be worried about our own flawed run D.

So because the Pats run defense hasn't played good people shouldn't point out flaws in their run defense?

 

[jays52]

So overall how do you call this game? I think as some else mentioned NE is suspect in run defense themselves. PM can take advantage of that.

Defense comes down to two things; throwing off Manning's timing and stuffing the run in sub and in (or at least showing) cover-2. They are going to dare Manning to run just like they did last year. The pregame chatter coming out of Denver is that they won't fall for it again but I assure you they will. People love to say that Manning is smart. I disagree with that. I think he is extremely knowledgeable and prepared, but I don't think his mind fires rapidly nor does he have the ability to see the move three moves ahead. Manning is fantastic at getting pre-snap reads, putting his team into the best play possible, and finding an exploit in that defense. What he's horrible at is when what he assumed would happen doesn't. That's when you get Manningface, throwing his line under the bus, post season losses, and rule changes. I know they can bait him into running, and mitigating those runs from sub is going to be a major key. It's the HoF k-gun gameplan, essentially.

What I'm really interested in seeing is how they defend Sanders.

 

[JMC00]

That doesn't worry me much. They're going to move Wilfork around to create matchup issues in the running game. It's pretty clear that's their new strategy in the running game and it worked beautifully early against Chicago. Linebackers also did a great job of filling better and they've been getting better every week in that regard.

Ya I think Chicago got about 120 of their rushing yards after the Pats went up 45-7. Now i'm not saying the Pats weren't trying to stop the run in the 2nd half but there is definitely a difference at playing against the run when you're up 30 points the whole 2nd half.

 

[Gwedd]

And let's not forget that Jonas Gray is pretty much an unknown to Denver. Mixing it up with him as the bowling ball and Vereen as the 3rd-down back, or receiving back, gives us a number of (IMHO) nice run options against Denver.

Heck, it seems to me that with a 2TE scheme, with 1WR, a FB & an RB, you have a VERY good scheme for running and, potentially, taking a nice shot down the field if Denver bites on the run threat.

I have to admit I'm already jonesing for this game. I'm a little nervous, because we know what Manning can do if he gets the time, but I'm thinking that it's still New England's house. Added to that is (already, I know!) a play for potential Home Field advantage, so this one single game could be huge on a number of levels.

 

[jays52]

Yeah, exactly. You go up 45-7 and then give up lots of runs but aren't getting gashed you're getting the opponent to play directly into your hands.

 

[VrabelJr]

A pretty unheralded hero of the Broncos front seven is Brandon Marshall, in my opinion. He's having a really good year.

 

[jays52]

A pretty unheralded hero of the Broncos front seven is Brandon Marshall, in my opinion. He's having a really good year.

He is, but when you get a hat on him he's neutralized. All those linebackers are space players.

 

[clam chowdah]

IT will be like every other pats broncos matchup for the past 3 years. Denver will stop the run on 1st and 2nd down, then when they're in nickel mcd will call a run and convert.. over and over. Miller and Ware get too deep too fast then solder and vollmer will matchup vs ward and Marshall creating gaping holes in a defense with gaping holes at half its positions and BAAM 1st down.

After about 10 of those conversions Del Rio will change the game plan then We'll go aerial and its gronk:30 and time to eat!

Patriots 43
Donkeys 8

 

[PATS16N0]

Looking through the game film I found several instances of Denver getting beaten in the run game. Almost universally these came off of exploiting this pursuit tendency and ear-holing Knighton. As 98 goes so does the entire Denver running game. Remember, TJ Ward would be their biggest linebacker and I know 94's name but he's not DeMarcus Ware anymore. They're fast, but they also are far from disciplined. For the 3,000th time this is a pursuit team. I cannot overstate this. BB has a long history of exploiting pursuit teams. So, how is this accomplished?

If Batman has taught us anything it is that theatricality and deception are powerful agents against the uninitiated...and they are not initiated, are they, Josh? Denver's opponents have put eight to ten plays on film where they took advantage of their pursuit with, for lack of a better term, trick plays. Most notably what looks like a zone read but is a handoff to the slot receiver coming off of the formation and getting the linebackers to bite on the dive. I expect a handoff to Edelman to happen in the first quarter. If they start running zones at Miller they are setting it up.

While the game is not TNF, I am expecting a throwback look. The two tight end offense, ah what a beautiful set. What made it so good in the run game is that, with motion, TE's can very easily "do fullback". In this case, this means wham blocking. Exploit Knighton's upfield play and use Gronk to functionally trap him while you get a guard or center to the second level. Essentially a counter.

Speaking of pulling and counters, Wendell has been a whipping post for a lot of us (myself included) but I think he does a handful of things pretty well. His game is largely predicated on developing a head of steam. Not ideal for a lineman, but when pulled, ah that is where he can excel. Again, take advantage of this upfield tendency, trap him and create large lanes.

I know this is basically how to beat pursuit teams 101, but thats exactly what they are. Denver is statistically excellent in the running game because, well, they usually don't get run on all that much. Running the ball takes time. It needs to be established. It needs setting up. It's very much like power punching. A lead hook on it's own is pretty ineffective, but draw in the opponents guard with your jab or throw it over a countering straight or parry and you have a devastating weapon. Such is the same in the running game. When you have forehead on the other side playing flag football time becomes an issue and accordingly the run game is jettisoned. Now, disrupt the timing of the forehead (which I fully expect NE to do) and you have time to develop a robust, multidimensional offensive attack...which is how this game is going to play out.

I wish there was an `awesome` rating

This is why I still think, as much as Mayo is crucial, Ridley was the greater loss purely based on our present situation. I really had him pegged as a major component to us being a post season built football team.

Hopefully Gray really impressed this week. So far he hasn't been bad, I just wish he would pick his gap and go faster. With momentum he looks tough.

On the flip side, making Denver receivers disappear with disruption and tight coverage, and encouraging the run, will go a long way in avoiding getting gashed by Forehead's ticky tacky BS PI calls for 70 yards