33% of 1st round Draft picks go bust
50% of 2nd round Draft picks go bust.
And it gets much worse from there.
Since the Patriots draft so late in the first round, their picks probably should have an average bust rate of 45%
I think people don't appreciate how much of a crap shoot the Draft is.
That said, I am positive that some of those busts would be drafted high today -if their NFL future was still an unknown.. because these players still have all the measurables that the NFL uses to guess whether they can make the transition or not.
But there's probably no doubt those drafts are sprinkles with avoidable mistakes as well.
I'm 100% on both sides on this. I believe strongly that fans have unrealistic draft expectations. E.g. we seem to consider a guy like Logan Ryan as the expected value of a late 3rd rounder, when history shows that most late 3rds are washouts. I also think that fans are led astray by the availability heuristic: we remember all teams' draft successes but only our own teams' misses, so we don't realize how dominant misses are across the league.
But I also believe in, to use your phrase, "avoidable mistakes." There's no doubt that the Patriots have made them, and I think it's interesting to sort out what kind of mistakes those are. The key category that leaps out at me is players like Ron Brace and Shawn Crable: relatively high picks who lacked the key measurables that best predict success at their respective positions.
I personally think that day 3 is a great time to get aggressive and take a few risks. The more picks, the better - some teams like the Raven's apparently follow a strategy of getting more picks (including signing FAs after June 1, and choosing to not overspend to keep replaceable players in order to accumulate comp picks) because the draft is such a crap shoot, thereby increasing the odds.
I don't have a problem with spending a day 3 pick (or UDFA signing) on a player who has great measurables, or guys who have slipped due to character or injury concerns. Alfonzo Dennard falls into the latter category, and I personally wish the Pats had been a bit more aggressive with guys like Vontaze Burfict, Colt Lyerla/AC Leonard, Da'Rick Rodgers and others. The cost is low, and the team can easily move on if these guys don't work out. The success rate will obviously be low (many of my favorite "moon shots" with incredible measurables haven't panned out, such as WR Dale Moss, DB Brandon Hardin, and DE/OLB Louis Nzegwu; DT Lawrence Okoye hasn't done anything either, but is still a work in progress), but a couple of hits can have a huge impact. I think the key is not over-reaching for measurables early on, particularly if other factors are lacking (the "Darius Heyward-Bey syndrome"), and being cautious of guys who seem to
lack clear measurables, especially on day 1-2 (Ron Brace). Regardless of whether they pan out, I think that guys like Alfonzo Dennard (day 2 talent who slipped due to character issues), Nate Ebner (great measurables and ST value, with upside), Michael Buchanan (solid measurables and potential day 2 talent who slipped because of injury-related issues), Zach Moore (small school prospect with good size and measurables) and Jeremy Gallon (big time performer at the college level with excellent speed and explosiveness measurables) were all excellent late round picks. I would have liked to see the team make a run at day 3 guys with exceptional measurables like Kevin Pierre-Louis, John Urschel and Lonnie Ballentine, but you can't get them all.
