2014 Draft Prospect Thread

[manxman2601]

I like him too but we must have very different definitions of special.

I think so.

 

[Wilfork#75]

A little off topic but I think Robinson would be a perfect fit for Baltimore. He is such a good vertical receiver that I think he would probably suit their offense better than ours (not saying he couldn't play in ours) because Flacco has a much better deep ball. If they had him running go routes, curls and slants I think he could be a beast. I think he would take a little more time adjusting to more breaking routes in our system but I think he certainly has a lot of potential. My biggest issue is value, and while I like him as a player I don't want to draft a WR that high.

 

[mayoclinic]

Just put together the first edition of my big board for those of you interested.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9aFnuAmn2VBOXdNbTg3cndtZ28/edit?usp=sharing

Bear in mind that:

A) It's subject to change. Still plenty to watch.

B) It's not just based on talent but on need and fit too.

C) Prospects could have been left off for a number of reasons: won't fall to us, bad fit, I don't like them etc


I'd appreciate any thoughts.

I somehow missed this, Manx. My apologies for not responding. It takes a lot of work to put together this kind of list.

A few thoughts:

1. Is this your board in general, your board for the Pats in particular, or what you think the Pats' board will look like?

2. Interesting that Travis Swanson has dropped all the way to 32. Has something changed for you? I see you don't have Weston Richburg - what don't you like about him?

3. I was interested to see Jackson Jeffcoat ranked so highly. Would you care to explain your thinking? Also interested to see Anthony Barr ranked that high.

4. No Marcus Smith. I know his 3-cone was poor, but do you think that takes him off the board altogether?

5. Interested that Jace Amaro has dropped to the #4 TE on your board, and behind Donte Moncrief. Again, is that because of his poor 3-cone?

6. It seems like you put a lot of weight on the 3-cone with guys who you haven't otherwise been particular high on (Trent Murphy, Kony Ealy, Anthony Barr).

I have no criticisms, just questions. It's really hard to put together a big board like this, and I applaud all your hard work. I haven't done one yet (though I know Aaron Donald will be #1 on it!).

MC

1. It's my interpretation of how I think the Pats board might look but with some of 'my guys' included.

2. Damnit! Left Richburg off. Thanks. As for Swanson, I admit his tape doesn't excite me but I still thinks he's a tremendous fit. He isn't a top player though - a bit of a push with our second rounder, but a third rounder comfortably.

3. I think extra pass rush is one of our top needs and this board reflects that. Pass rushers with good 3-cones will feature predominantly on this board. Jeffcoat, Ealy, Murphy, Barr and to a lesser degree Martin reflect that.

4. I still like Marcus Smith but if you tract our history of drafting edge players, the 3-cone is very important. So yes, that's why he's not on the board. Put it this way, his 3-cone was slower than the 6-6 300lb + JuWuan James.

5. Yes on Amaro. I said previously that I thought he looked like a linear athlete and his 3-cone only served to prove that. I also like Moncrief's upside as a potential #1 receiver.

6. Firstly, the 3-cone is proven to be an important element in predicting pass rush success so it makes sense. Secondly, after last year, I told myself that I would heavily favour the 3-cone in trying to predict what the Pats would do. If I had done so last year, I might have successfully predicted Mark Harrison, Josh Boyce and Logan Ryan.

Wow, I really had a major brainfart. Not only did I miss your board the first time you posted it, but when I looked at it I didn't realize it was a top 100 board, and only saw the top 32 picks. IDK what I was thinking.

With that in mind, I'm even more impressed. I agree with Patchick that this merited its own thread. It's a great piece of work, Manx. Great job.

Some more thoughts:

- You probably prioritize CB higher than I do. I love the day 3 values, and I wouldn't put anyone in my top 32 unless we don't re-sign Talib or find an alternative in FA. Kyle Fuller is my top rated DB (I think of him as a CB/S dual threat option), followed by Bashaud Breeland.

- Similar to CB, I love the day 3 TE/move TE options (Logan Thomas, Larry Webster, Richard Rodgers, Trey Millard, Trey Bruton, Gator Hoskins, maybe even Colt Lyerla as a moon shot) and those guys are probably all on my top 100.

- I value getting an LB with movement skills, coverage ability and versatility very highly. I would rank Christian Jones and Jordan Tripp higher.

Again, those are just my personal views. There's no right or wrong, and you've done a magnificent job.

 

[manxman2601]

Wow, I really had a major brainfart. Not only did I miss your board the first time you posted it, but when I looked at it I didn't realize it was a top 100 board, and only saw the top 32 picks. IDK what I was thinking.

With that in mind, I'm even more impressed. I agree with Patchick that this merited its own thread. It's a great piece of work, Manx. Great job.

Some more thoughts:

- You probably prioritize CB higher than I do. I love the day 3 values, and I wouldn't put anyone in my top 32 unless we don't re-sign Talib or find an alternative in FA. Kyle Fuller is my top rated DB (I think of him as a CB/S dual threat option), followed by Bashaud Breeland.

- Similar to CB, I love the day 3 TE/move TE options (Logan Thomas, Larry Webster, Richard Rodgers, Trey Millard, Trey Bruton, Gator Hoskins, maybe even Colt Lyerla as a moon shot) and those guys are probably all on my top 100.

- I value getting an LB with movement skills, coverage ability and versatility very highly. I would rank Christian Jones and Jordan Tripp higher.

Again, those are just my personal views. There's no right or wrong, and you've done a magnificent job.

As you say, personal opinions. In response:

1. I didn't make any assumptions about Talib re-signing or not. The minute he does, the likes of Dennard, Gilbert and Roby will come off the board. Still not sure about Fuller though.

2. I really don't like the depth of this TE class. For me we should either grab one early or grab one very late. The only one I like as a mid -rounder is CJF ( need to look more into Jake Murphy though).

3. I knocked Christian Jones because I thought he disappointed a little at the combine but I may have been harsh in that he had similar numbers to Ogletree. He might get a bounce in my next version. As for Tripp, I think he's a really good fit but his tape is unspectacular (of what I've seen) and he's a special teamer/backup initially for us which knocks him down a bit.

When I do version two which will likely be a week or two into FA, I might put it in it's own thread which I can also use for my mocks. I'm not all that keen on starting new threads about my stuff.

And thank you.

 

[Hercules Rockefeller]

Strange quirk I've noticed Mayo, you seem to spell the versatile former QB/current WR/TE prospect from Florida's last name as Bruton quite a bit. I actually looked it up to check if I'd always had Trey Burton's name wrong. No big deal, I think it's funny and shows how much I respect your brain that I actually looked it up to make sure!

 

[mayoclinic]

Strange quirk I've noticed Mayo, you seem to spell the versatile former QB/current WR/TE prospect from Florida's last name as Bruton quite a bit. I actually looked it up to check if I'd always had Trey Burton's name wrong. No big deal, I think it's funny and shows how much I respect your brain that I actually looked it up to make sure!

Thanks for keeping me honest. It's not easy.

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

A little off topic but I think Robinson would be a perfect fit for Baltimore. He is such a good vertical receiver that I think he would probably suit their offense better than ours (not saying he couldn't play in ours) because Flacco has a much better deep ball. If they had him running go routes, curls and slants I think he could be a beast. I think he would take a little more time adjusting to more breaking routes in our system but I think he certainly has a lot of potential. My biggest issue is value, and while I like him as a player I don't want to draft a WR that high.

That's odd. His deep speed/play threat is his only weakness when I watch him. He uses his crafty route running, and instant recognition of blow coverages to get deep, but I rarely see him line up and burn a guy. I'd prefer Brady throwing to someone like that over Flacco. Flacco doesn't operate quick enough.

I think his combination of size, short area quickness, and cutting ability would flourish here. Furthermore his YAC ability is elite -- very special for a 6'3" 220 WR.

My only question about his potential fit here is if Brady would take advantage of his size and jump ball ability? Brady doesn't throw many contested balls, but he hasn't had a go-up-and-get-it monster like Robinson either. That may be a luxury here where as in other places it's a necessity, like Baltimore.

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

"For the last month I have been debating Allen Robinson as my #1 receiver in this class. I’m not sure if this is the icing on the cake, but he’s almost certainly going to be in the top 3."

The Phenom Index In Action: 2013 and 2014 Rookie Receivers | RotoViz

I'm tellin' you guys, Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb

 

[Wilfork#75]

That's odd. His deep speed/play threat is his only weakness when I watch him. He uses his crafty route running, and instant recognition of blow coverages to get deep, but I rarely see him line up and burn a guy. I'd prefer Brady throwing to someone like that over Flacco. Flacco doesn't operate quick enough.

I think his combination of size, short area quickness, and cutting ability would flourish here. Furthermore his YAC ability is elite -- very special for a 6'3" 220 WR.

My only question about his potential fit here is if Brady would take advantage of his size and jump ball ability? Brady doesn't throw many contested balls, but he hasn't had a go-up-and-get-it monster like Robinson either. That may be a luxury here where as in other places it's a necessity, like Baltimore.

I meant more his body control and ability to track the deep ball. Tracking deep balls over the shoulder is a very difficult thing to do and Robinson is a natural at it. Add in his length and body control and I think he can be an excellent vertical receiver, although not the traditional deep threat.

 

[manxman2601]

For those of you who wish to join me aboard the Zach Kerr bandwagon, please form an orderly queue.

Zach Kerr (DT Delaware) vs Albany 2013 - YouTube

Nice to get some proper tape. And now I really want him. I see some real upside as a disruptive NT. Needs to add a little strength against double teams though.

 

[Joker]

For those of you who wish to join me aboard the Zach Kerr bandwagon, please form an orderly queue.

Zach Kerr (DT Delaware) vs Albany 2013 - YouTube

Nice to get some proper tape. And now I really want him. I see some real upside as a disruptive NT. Needs to add a little strength against double teams though.

a minor quibble....Delaware and Albany are not even in the same quadrant of the galaxy compared to the likes of any team in the SEC, the PAC12, ACC, Big 10, Big 12...highlights from a contest between those 2 teams are ambiguous at best IMO.

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

I liked what I saw from Dezmen Southward. Lots of cover-1. He needs to improve his ball skills.

Dezmen Southward vs Arizona St (2013) | Draft Breakdown

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

I meant more his body control and ability to track the deep ball. Tracking deep balls over the shoulder is a very difficult thing to do and Robinson is a natural at it. Add in his length and body control and I think he can be an excellent vertical receiver, although not the traditional deep threat.

His body control is certainly top notch -- great balance and coordination. It allows him to make some spectacular catches. Hackenberg's deep ball is so erratic it limits the amount of deep balls that are catchable, but it does show off Robinson's tracking ability.

 

[VJCPatriot]

"For the last month I have been debating Allen Robinson as my #1 receiver in this class. I’m not sure if this is the icing on the cake, but he’s almost certainly going to be in the top 3."

The Phenom Index In Action: 2013 and 2014 Rookie Receivers | RotoViz

I'm tellin' you guys, Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb

Well, I don't know if I'm sold on Robinson yet. BUT I remember there was this one intriguing, tall, physical receiver that everybody said was too slow. His name was Anquan Boldin.

In fact, aside from his size/weight combo none of Boldin's combine results stood out. Boldin clocked in a 4.72 40 yard dash, a 33.5 inch VJ, and a 7.35 3-cone!!

Anquan Boldin - WR - Florida State - 2003 NFL Combine Results

 

[cstjohn17]

Nice breakdowns of each position from WalterFootball.com

You can start at WR and work your way through most of the positions.
WalterFootball.com: Position Review - Wide Receivers

 

[mayoclinic]

Scouting report on Ryan Shazier from Gang Green Nation:

Scouting The Draft: Ryan Shazier, OLB, Ohio State - Gang Green Nation

4.36 40, 6.91 3-cone, 4.21 SS, 42" VJ, 10'8" broad jump. Jamie Collins'-like explosiveness + Aqib Talib-like movement skills at 6'3" 237#.

He'll be long gone at 29.

 

[mayoclinic]

Pat Kirwan on Anthony Barr, Scott Crichton, Trent Murphy and Kyle Van Noy:

Film study: Anthony Barr, Scott Crichton, Trent Murphy, Kyle Van Noy - CBSSports.com

On Murphy:

Murphy lines up as an outside linebacker in a 3-4, as a 5 technique, as a 'spinner', and out on a slot occasionally. He reminds me of Mike Vrabel and Jeff Lageman, a guy we had at the Jets and eventually the Jaguars. Murphy's best trait is versatility with a strong FBI (football intelligence). Murphy is a scheme pass rusher and will win by changing up how and where he rushes from. Murphy can cover a tight end in coverage and has zone drop skills. Coaches like Bill Belichick or Dom Capers would love having Murphy on their team.

I agree, but I've dropped Murphy a bit based on his lack of a clear positional fit and length to impact.

 

[mayoclinic]

Greg Gabriel profiles Keith McGill and Pierre Desir:

NFL Prospect Focus: Keith McGill and Pierre Desir | National Football Post

 

[Snake Eyes]

I agree, but I've dropped Murphy a bit based on his lack of a clear positional fit and length to impact.

Why wouldn't Murphy be a fit as a 4-3 DE?

 

[mayoclinic]

Why wouldn't Murphy be a fit as a 4-3 DE?

I think he would, and that's where I eventually projected him. But he came into the Senior Bowl at 252#, quite a bit lighter than the #261-265 he had been listed at in college, and showed that he lacks the upper body strength to be a full time lineman at the moment. He weighed in even lighter (250#) at the Combine. That's way too light to play 4-3 DE full time for the Pats.

Murphy seems aware that his future is more likely as a DE than as a 3-4 OLB:

Stanford's Trent Murphy ready to make move to DE - NFL.com

I love his toughness, intelligence, motor and versatility. He has the frame to bulk up, without a doubt. But I think it will take him time to bulk up, add strength and develop the "combat skills" necessary to thrive as a 4-3 DE. That makes me less interested in him as a 2nd round prospect. I wouldn't be unhappy with it, but it's made him less of a target for me.