The 2014 Mock draft Thread.

[patsinthesnow]

Post-Combine Mock

#13 TRADE- Patriots trade 29, 93, 4th and a 2015 2nd to the Rams for pick 13.

13-Aaron Donald DT*
61- Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE
6ths-7th: To be determined, but Logan Thomas is in there.

*Time to explain my epic Aaron Donald flip flop. Before the Senior bowl/combine, I thought he was just a slightly more talented Chris Jones, a DT with top notch college production but mediocre NFL athleticism. The combine proved this kid's tape isn't too good to be true and he really is a beast. He may step in the NFL as the most athletic DT. Throw in the fact he has a great attitude/motor and he's arguably a top 5 player in this draft class.

He's a slightly more athletic Geno Atkins, and that type of player would change the Patriots defense. I want him and am willing to trade up for that caliber of player. This is probably an epic overreaction, but this kid's performance was friggin exciting.

 

[mayoclinic]

Post-Combine Mock

#13 TRADE- Patriots trade 29, 93, 4th and a 2015 2nd to the Rams for pick 13.

13-Aaron Donald DT*
61- Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE
6ths-7th: To be determined, but Logan Thomas is in there.

*Time to explain my epic Aaron Donald flip flop. Before the Senior bowl/combine, I thought he was just a slightly more talented Chris Jones, a DT with top notch college production but mediocre NFL athleticism. The combine proved this kid's tape isn't too good to be true and he really is a beast. He may step in the NFL as the most athletic DT. Throw in the fact he has a great attitude/motor and he's arguably a top 5 player in this draft class.

He's a slightly more athletic Geno Atkins, and that type of player would change the Patriots defense. I want him and am willing to trade up for that caliber of player. This is probably an epic overreaction, but this kid's performance was friggin exciting.

I don't put much stock in Combine performances. Donald's was certainly impressive, and it will boost his draft stock. But his tape showed that he is probably the single most disruptive defensive prospect in this draft, and he simply continues to "check off all the boxes", as Mike Mayock puts it:

- Dominant Senior Bowl performance against top competition
- Much better than expected athleticism at the Combine - this is somewhat similar to Luke Kuechly in 2012, Donald was widely admired as a football player, but not expected to put up such impressive numbers. He pretty much nailed all the numbers - strength (35 reps on the bench press), quickness (1.59 10 yard split), long speed (4.68 40), agility (4.39 short shuttle, 7.11 3-cone) and explosiveness (32" vertical).

I'm interested in the fact that Donald has fairly long arms for his height (32 5/8"), and that combined with his 3-cone and short shuttle suggest that he could have considerable positional versatility (and he did play 5-tech and 0-tech at Pittsburgh as well as 3-tech). Frankly, his athleticism was such that I think he would have held his own doing LB drills. His 3-cone and short shuttle (7.11 and 4.39) compare closely to those of Jamie Collins (7.10 and 4.32). While he will be a dominant 3-tech, I also think he has the skill set and football intelligence to be moved around and used in a variety of ways.

In 2012 I thought Lavante David was the best defensive prospect in the draft, because of his stunning combination of uncanny instincts, range and coverage ability, and unusual core strength for his size. The Pats passed on David, and he was All Pro this year and should have been a DPOY candidate. Donald is somewhat analogous - he's undersized, but has a stunning combination of combat tactics (his hand skills are every bit as exceptional as his speed and agility), quickness, agility, core strength and motor. I think he's worth trading up for.

 

[manxman2601]

Back in December I said:

So, ignore draft needs, ignore logic and philosophy, ignore big schools and ideal lengths, sizes and 3 cone times. Which player(s) most excites you as future Patriot for the forthcoming draft?

Now, I love Brandon Scherff, Darqueze Dennard, Kyle Fuller, Eric Ebron (maybe) and Justin Gilbert but I think if I could have one player in this draft, I'd wish for Aaron Donald. Want to see why?

Aaron Donald vs Virginia 2013 - YouTube

I think he could be faster than Carl Lewis off the blocks and then often runs around like an OLB. He's probably a horrible fit but I don't care.

Oh yes!

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/13/1078732-prospect-most-excites-you.html

 

[50-yard-line]

Was just typing this up and paused and read Dryheat's analysis. We're on the same page:

Defensive line: This is my biggest FA dip if I’m BB. Bring in 1 or 2 vets (depending on Wilfork and Kelly). Bennett is likely staying in Seattle, Hardy probably going nowhere from Carolina and would get HUGE money anyway.

The rest worth grabbing: Michael Johnson, Lamar Houston, Red Bryant (if rumors are true), Jason Hatcher, Justin Tuck…

My favorite remains Lamar Houston, but Oakland’s got a ton of cash and reportedly want to keep him. Those are tires I would kick hard if he makes FA. I just saw a USE Today piece about the top 25 FA’s and the best fit for him was “Patriots.” I agree. He would flourish here.

Johnson would be a great “get,” but he’s probably looking to break the bank.

Jason Hatcher is a bit under the radar, but he’s a real match-up problem. He reminds me of Tommy Kelly.

I’ve liked Justin Tuck for a long time, but for some reason, I just don’t know that he’d be a good match here. I’d still scoop him in a heartbeat if the money was right.

Red Bryant is worth grabbing even if you get one of the above. He should come relatively cheaply (3/12?), he plays as solid as they come, and there’s history there.

If Wilfork is done, Pat Sims is worth a long look.

Jared Allen/Will Smith, etc. are last-ditch help on short deals. (FYI, Jared Allen rated out as 34th among DE's...not good...he's a situational pass rusher now, which would fit, but he shouldn't be expensive.)

A DL of Jones/Kelly/Nink/Wilfork/Bryant/one of Houston.Hatcher.Johnson/with Siliga.Armstead/C. Jones.Buchanon.Grissom fighting it out behind them suits me fine. Even if Wilfork is done or severely reduced as we fear, I think we’re more than okay with that bunch.

Linebackers: We’ve got a great starting three in Hightower, Mayo and Collins, but after that?

Resign Dane Fletcher if the money is right. He’s a very competent back up.

FA possibilities: Wouldn’t spend a lot of money here, but guys like Pat Angerer and Wesley Woodyard have fallen off and might be rejuvenated in another system. Not comfortable having Beauharnais as the #4 just yet.


Secondary: More than anything, I want a guy who can light up the middle – the way Chancellor took out Demarius Thomas in the 1st Quarter of the Superbowl. The violent teams win in the playoffs because the refs let it go. I hope Adrian Wilson is the guy, but that’s a long shot. Bernard Pollard is a FA, but he’s…Bernard Pollard. I might rotate Jamie Collins back to SS in certain packages. There are a few good safeties in FA, but I doubt the top two, Ward and Byrd, are going to be available, and even if they are, they’ll be huge money and I want to spend the cash on the DL.

Whitner would be a good fit, but I think he’s looking for a BIG payday. If Wilson can’t go, cut him, restructure Gregory down if possible and get a hitter if one is available. Otherwise, I re-sign Talib and stand Pat here.

Wide Receiver: We could use one if Edelman walks. Brady6 (and PFF) has sold me on Riley Cooper. He’s big (6’3”, 222) can play all over the field and is rated as the second-best blocking receiver behind Brandon Marshall. If not Cooper, then Manny Sanders…or Nix or Rice down the line.

Running back: Sign Blount (3/5), draft camp competition for Boldin/Mcguffie (or get the kid from BC!).

Quarterback: Stand Pat…later round draft pick, perhaps. If the mythical Mallett picks comes in…?

TE: If you’ve got the money left, go get Scott Chandler. If not, then draft two (see below), resign Hooman, and cross your fingers.

Offensive Line: The other “must” FA dip. If he comes available, Alex Mack would be an enormous help. I just don’t see Cleveland letting him walk with that kind of cash available.

Brian de la Puente and Evan Dietrich-Smith are both expected to be out there (EDS could be a steal), though Aaron Rogers wants EDS back in Green Bay.

Jonathan Goodwin is out there, too. He’s old, but dependable as all heck, and a one-year stop-gap contract might be worth it.

I’m not sure the Pats let Wendell walk. He had an awful year, but he was very good (top 5) in 2012. Was he playing hurt? Were the schemes wrong/other problems we don't know about? The breakdowns were stunning.

Schwartz would be awesome, but he's rated as the top OG out there and could get too pricey.

An OL of Solder/Mankins/Goodwin/Su’a’Filo/Vollmer with Cannon/restructured Connolly/Kline/Cave in reserve?

The Draft: If the D-line isn’t set, I like the same names as everyone else: Tuitt, Hageman, Donald (I’d trade up if he’s really as explosive as he looked at Combine). If I’m happy with the returning wounded and FA acquisitions, unless there’s someone special here (Pryor?), trade back (but don’t go back so far that you lose Xavier Su’a’Filo – I love his toughness). I’d be looking to get at least one OL, Filo and/or one of the big 3 centers, two TE’s (partial to Fiedorowitz, Lyerla has to prove he’s not as bad as he sounds, and love the Logan Thomas whispers)…other than that, just value.

1st Round: Pryor if he's there. DL if we haven't fixed it in FA. Otherwise trade back.

1st pick: Xavier Su'a'Filo, for all the reasons Dryheat named Schwartz. He's nasty. Love it. Pure OL attitude.
2rd pick: Austen Sefarian-Jenkins - I love Fiedorowitz, but ASJ just seems to have that star potential. Red zone monster.
3rd pick: Marcus Martin if he's there, otherwise: Best DL available/best value.
4th and below: value. To my thinking, once you get past the first couple of rounds, take flyers and hope you hit (when you have a roster as deep as New England's). This is where you're typically replacing the Tavon Wilson's and Jake Bequette's on your roster, not the starting talent. Time to draft a QB, maybe.

Colt Lyerla: he could be a steal in round 4 back, but he'd have a lot to prove to me if I'm BB. If I couldn't get ASJ, maybe I'd go in-line with Fiedorowitz and take a flyer on the move guy, Lyerla, IF he isn't as stupid as he sounds.

 

[mayoclinic]

Back in December I said:

Oh yes!

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/13/1078732-prospect-most-excites-you.html

You deserve full credit for being so prescient. :youtheman: You were way ahead of me on this one - I can only modestly claim that I jumped on board well ahead of Donald's Combine performance, though later than I should have done.

 

[manxman2601]

You deserve full credit for being so prescient. :youtheman: You were way ahead of me on this one - I can only modestly claim that I jumped on board well ahead of Donald's Combine performance, though later than I should have done.

I'm very happy when people fully embrace those that I like as you have done with a number of prospects. In fact, your open mindedness on prospects is outstanding and puts me to shame.

 

[mayoclinic]

I'm very happy when people fully embrace those that I like as you have done with a number of prospects. In fact, your open mindedness on prospects is outstanding and puts me to shame.

I wish that were so, but I think you're being too kind. I think you're far more fair-minded than I am. But I put a lot of stock in checking my evals with those of a small number of people who I respect, and when there are variances - especially significant ones, and ones relating to schematic fit - I try to rethink things. I think it's very therapeutic to rattle one's cage from time to time and not get too locked in.

 

[JerseyShore99]

Just saw this mock:
Create Your Own 2014 NFL Mock Drafts
1. Jace Amaro
2. (Mallett) Odell Beckham Jr.
2. Will Sutton
3. Stanley-Jean Baptiste
4. AJ McCarron
6. Bryan Stork
6. Kevin Norwood
7. Colt Lyerla

My Opinions: Love the first three selections although I don't think we'll get a second for Mallett, hopefully just third before #75. Amaro would start right away and Beckham would be a nice pick-up for the offense that adds athleticism and great ST to NE. Sutton I also love, who has similar size to Big Vince, great run-stuffer. Baptiste I'm not a fan of really so I'd pass on that however we do need to address CB. Love McCarron to take Brady's spot in 2017 and Stork is a great center if Wendell is gone. Norwood is another great WR who may go earlier however I feel we have enough WRs. Lyerla should go before 7, I personally feel somewhere a round 4th round (similar to AH by coincidence) and I'd take a shot on him, just maybe not in the 4th depending on what we addressed.

 

[manxman2601]

Just saw this mock:
Create Your Own 2014 NFL Mock Drafts
1. Jace Amaro
2. (Mallett) Odell Beckham Jr.
2. Will Sutton
3. Stanley-Jean Baptiste
4. AJ McCarron
6. Bryan Stork
6. Kevin Norwood
7. Colt Lyerla

My Opinions: Love the first three selections although I don't think we'll get a second for Mallett, hopefully just third before #75. Amaro would start right away and Beckham would be a nice pick-up for the offense that adds athleticism and great ST to NE. Sutton I also love, who has similar size to Big Vince, great run-stuffer. Baptiste I'm not a fan of really so I'd pass on that however we do need to address CB. Love McCarron to take Brady's spot in 2017 and Stork is a great center if Wendell is gone. Norwood is another great WR who may go earlier however I feel we have enough WRs. Lyerla should go before 7, I personally feel somewhere a round 4th round (similar to AH by coincidence) and I'd take a shot on him, just maybe not in the 4th depending on what we addressed.

I would rather have Bitonio instead of Sutton and Caraun Reid/Anthony Johnson instead of SJB (hopefully we're signing Talib and don't need him) and whilst Stork doesn't thrill me, with those two changes I'd be very content with that draft.

 

[ATippett56]

2014 New England Patriots Mock Draft - 2/25/14

Straight Up - No Screwing Around

Round 1 - To Be Determined (contingent on unrestricted free agency)

Round 2 - Westin Richburg, OC - Colorado State (73)

Round 3 - C.J. Fiedorowicz, TE - Iowa (105)

Round 4 - Justin Ellis, DT - Louisiana Tech (139)

Round 6 - Khairi Fortt, OLB - Calfornia (221)

Round 6 - John Urschel, OG - Penn State (234) or Spencer Long, OG - Nebraska (240)

Round 6 Compensatory - Trey Millard, FB - Oklahoma (239)

Round 7 - Lorenzo Taliaferro, RB - Coastal Carolina (257)

Parenthesis - NFLDraftScout Overall Rankings

NFL Draft - 2014 NFL Draft Prospects - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com

Caveat: NFLDraftScout Overall Rankings dated 2/24/2014

Note: Multiple selections depends on availability

Collegiate UDFAs (potential diamonds in the rough):

Bruce Gaston, DT - Purdue (286)
Zach Kerr, DT - Delaware (305)
Jamil Merrell, DE - Rutgers (411)
Kenny Anunike, DE - Duke (429)
Chris Young, ILB - Arizona State (344)
Jonathan Dowling, FS - Western Kentucky (284)
Nickoe Whitley, FS - Mississippi State (303)
Brock Vereen, SS - Minnesota (307)
Dezmen Southward, SS - Wisconsin (341)
Dexter McDougle, CB - Maryland (279)
Brandon Dixon, CB - Northwest Missouri State (318)

Unrestricted Free Agent Acquisitions:

Michael Hoomanawanui
Will Svitek
Dane Fletcher
Aqib Talib

Salary Cap Casualties:

Adrian Wilson
Tommy Kelly
Isaac Sopoaga

NFI List (to be "redshirted" for the 2014 NFL Season):

Trey Millard
Spencer Long

 

[mayoclinic]

Quick version.

- Currently $13M under the projected league-wide cap of $132M, after adjustments.
- Cut Vince Wilfork, Isaac Sapoaga, Adrian Wilson and Dan Connolly. ($13.5M+ cap savings)
- Extend Devin McCourty, Stephen Gostkowski and Matt Slater ($2.5M cap savings)

That gives the Pats about $29M in cap space.

Re-sign:

- CB Aqib Talib. 4 years / $26M. 2014 cap hit $4M.
- RB LeGarrette Blount. 3 years / $5M. 2014 cap hit $1.5M.
- LB Dane Fletcher. 3 years / $2.5M. 2014 cap hit $800K.
- OL Will Svitek. 2 years . $1.9M. 2014 cap hit $900K.
- LS Danny Aiken. 3 years / $1.8M. 2014 cap hit $600K.

Sign:

- OC Alex Mack. 5 years / $45M. 2014 cap hit $5M.
- DE Michael Johnson/Carlos Dunlap. Whichever one Cincinnati lets walk. 4 years / $32M. 2014 cap hit: $5M.
- DT/DE Red Bryant. Cap casualty. 3 years / $12M. 2014 cap hit: $3M.
- WR Sidney Rice. Cap casualty. 3 years / $6M, with incentives to $12M. 2014 cap hit: $2M.
- OL Ted Larsen. 2 years / $2.25M. 2014 cap hit $1M.

- Plan to sign a veteran backup QB after June 1.

That's about $25M in 2014 cap space, leaving around $4M left over - more after decrementing for the contracts pushed out of the top 51. The resulting amount should leave enough for the rookie pool, PS, and a little left over.

Trade:

- Trade Ryan Mallett and Stephen Ridley to Houston for #33. A long shot, but this is a mock. With Ben Tate a FA Houston can use a backup RB, in addition to being able to draft Clowney #1 overall.

Draft:

- Trade 29 and 33 to St. Louis for 13 and their 4th round pick.
13. Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh. 6'1" 288#. We need a Seymour-like impact lineman.
62. Best available TE out of Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Troy Niklas and Jace Amaro.
93. Christian Jones, LB, Florida St. 6'3" 240#. Versatile, fluid LB who can cover or come off the edge.
4a. Antone Exum, DB, Virginia Tech. 6' 213#. Safety conversion. Could be a stud opposite McCourty.
4b. Cyrus Kouandjio, OT, Alabama. 6'6" 322#. This assumes that Kouandjio goes into "free fall" the way Marcus Cannon did. If not, substitute the favorite prospect of your personal religion.
- Trade 6a and 6b for a 5th round pick.
5. Logan Thomas, QB/TE, Virginia Tech (6'6" 248#) or Larry Webster, DE/TE, Bloomsburg (6'6" 252#). Uber-athletic TE conversion.
6(comp). Jonathan Dowling, DB, Western Kentucky (6'3" 191#) or Dontae Johnson, DB, North Carolina St. (6' 2 1/2" 200#). Big outside CB/S hybrid with great wingspan and range.
6 (comp). Lorenzo Taliaferro, RB, Coastal Carolina (6' 229#) or James Wilder, RB, Florida St. (6' 2 1/2" 232#). Bruiser RB with surprising agility (6.88 and 6.92 3-cone) to replace Ridley and back up Blount.
7. Chris Boyd, WR, Vanderbilt. 6'4" 206#. Moon shot.

 

[everlong]

- OC Alex Mack. 5 years / $45M. 2014 cap hit $5M.
- DE Michael Johnson/Carlos Dunlap. Whichever one Cincinnati lets walk. 4 years / $32M. 2014 cap hit: $5M.

- Trade 29 and 33 to St. Louis for 13 and their 4th round pick.
13. Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh. 6'1" 288#. We need a Seymour-like impact lineman.

There's zero chance Bill signs two players in FA for AAV of 8 and 9 million. I think one would be a stretch.

Likewise there's no chance he trades what amounts to two firsts for a first and fourth for a guy who doesn't fit his mold. I love Donald and think he'll be an impact player but he's approaching Connor Barwin levels of man crush on the forum at this point.

 

[mayoclinic]

There's zero chance Bill signs two players in FA for AAV of 8 and 9 million. I think one would be a stretch.

I agree. I'd be happy for 1 out of 2. But we could free up the space to do it, if we chose to.

The way I look at it, one of those 2 is taking up most of Wilfork's cap slot. And Mack's real money wouldn't kick in until 2015, when he could take up Mankins' cap slot. But I agree it's a long shot.

Likewise there's no chance he trades what amounts to two firsts for a first and fourth for a guy who doesn't fit his mold. I love Donald and think he'll be an impact player but he's approaching Connor Barwin levels of man crush on the forum at this point.

I'd make that trade any day if Donald is on the board. I think he'll have a bigger impact on the defense than Richard Seymour did in 2001.

Barwin in 2009 was an athletic freak who was a DE/OLB conversion projection after only 1 good season of DE experience, at a time when that conversion wasn't nearly as common as it is today. Donald is a much more proven player. As for not fitting the mold, I don't think we can say what BB's current "mold" is. Chandler Jones didn't fit the mold in 2012, and BB traded up for him.

 

[dryheat44]

There's zero chance Bill signs two players in FA for AAV of 8 and 9 million. I think one would be a stretch.

Absolutely. A huge reason why the team has had the unprecedented long-term success that it has is precisely because BB doesn't throw big money at outside FAs. The closest thing to it was Adalius, who was a perfect schematic fit on paper. Adalius's performance and attitude off paper, has almost certainly re-inforced his propensity to not operate that way. The two biggest names in recent years were Haynesworth, Moss, and Ochocinco, and all three had to negotiate their salary downwards before joining the team. I think it's Bills philosophy, for good or ill, to not squeeze the good soldiers in the locker room into taking less so he can make an outside FA the third-highest paid guy on the team.

 

[everlong]

I agree. I'd be happy for 1 out of 2. But we could free up the space to do it, if we chose to.

The way I look at it, one of those 2 is taking up most of Wilfork's cap slot. And Mack's real money wouldn't kick in until 2015, when he could take up Mankins' cap slot. But I agree it's a long shot.

The other complication is paying them more than Mayo and Mankins. I love Mack and think he's the more likely of the two but I think it would have to be less than 9M AAV.

I'd make that trade any day if Donald is on the board. I think he'll have a bigger impact on the defense than Richard Seymour did in 2001.

Barwin in 2009 was an athletic freak who was a DE/OLB conversion projection after only 1 good season of DE experience, at a time when that conversion wasn't nearly as common as it is today. Donald is a much more proven player. As for not fitting the mold, I don't think we can say what BB's current "mold" is. Chandler Jones didn't fit the mold in 2012, and BB traded up for him.

Trading up from the 20's still in the 20's is different than 29 to 13. Agreed Donald is more proven. I just don't see in a deep draft Bill going that route. I think more likely is a trade down or perhaps even twice if they actually got Houston's pick.

So would you rather have.

Aaron Donald
Stanley Jean-Baptiste

in the first and fourth

or

Austin Seferian-Jenkins
Kyle Fuller
Dominique Easley
Marcus Martin

As a result of trading down for two mid seconds and two mid thirds?

 

[everlong]

The two biggest names in recent years were Haynesworth, Moss, and Ochocinco, and all three.....

I'm laughing with you not at you because that's such a move I pull all the time declaring two and pointing out three.

 

[mayoclinic]

So would you rather have.

Aaron Donald
Stanley Jean-Baptiste

in the first and fourth

or

Austin Seferian-Jenkins
Kyle Fuller
Dominique Easley
Marcus Martin

As a result of trading down for two mid seconds and two mid thirds?

I'll take Donald and SJB (or Antone Exum), because I think Donald is a top 10 talent. BB didn't trade back from #6 in 2001 when Richard Seymour was on the board. Again, it all depends on how highly you rate the prospects and whether you think they could fit, but I think Donald could be a difference maker on the DL, and that's a very, very high priority for me.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

- LS Danny Aiken. 3 years / $1.8M. 2014 cap hit $600K.

As a minor point, you can't sign him for that little; the minimum salary for fourth-year players is $640K, and a three-year deal would probably have to have at least some signing bonus, so it'd probably be $650-700K this year, and then $750K-800K next year and the year after.

 

[everlong]

I'll take Donald and SJB (or Antone Exum), because I think Donald is a top 10 talent. BB didn't trade back from #6 in 2001 when Richard Seymour was on the board. Again, it all depends on how highly you rate the prospects and whether you think they could fit, but I think Donald could be a difference maker on the DL, and that's a very, very high priority for me.

Not trading back is different than trading up that far. He also didn't trade up for JJ Watt who everybody was correctly predicting would be an impact player.

 

[mayoclinic]

He also didn't trade up for JJ Watt who everybody was correctly predicting would be an impact player.

My point exactly. Hopefully he's learned from that one. We could probably have traded 17 and 33 to Jacksonville for 10 and 76 and grabbed Watt, a dominant player.

I think Donald could have a JJ Watt kind of impact. That's worth giving up a lot for. 5 years of a true impact lineman at low cost (with the 5th year option) = priceless.