The 2014 Mock draft Thread.

[OhExaulted1]

If you can find me 17 players who have run in the 3.3.'s, I'm sure BB can coach some of them up.

Well, there was this er...guy once...

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

40 times can be deceptive.

Jerry Rice ran a 4.692 ...but Rice had something that is much harder to measure; he had an extra gear when the ball was in the air. You would watch him run his route, but then accelerate while on the run to separate from the DB. I have watched a little of Watkins and he was able to do this, but I do not know the quality of the DBs he was up against.

 

[manxman2601]

Obviously it's not the sole key, but just getting invited is most certainly significant-

How are players selected for the NFL Combine?


Participants are determined annually by a Selection Committee. The Directors of both National and BLESTO scouting services, which combined represent twenty-five NFL teams, are joined by members of various NFL player personnel departments to form the committee. The participating NFL executives can rotate on a yearly basis, and remain anonymous. ALL eligible players are reviewed and voted on by the committee members. Each athlete receiving the necessary number of votes, by position, is then extended an invitation. While it is not a perfect science, the goal of the committee is to invite every player that will be drafted in the ensuing NFL Draft.

It's not like I think the kid is special, I just slotted us taking him @#93. If anyone thinks that's so far fetched beyond all comprehension so be it. If anyone here, including myself, we're an "expert" we'd be getting paid for our opinion. Otherwise it's just a casual throw a dart at the board pastime.

I actually slotted him there before the workout in my mock. The kid looked good from what I saw and this guy agrees and most draft/mock sites rate him high on their boards.

Feb. 22.-http://nesn.com/2014/02/nfl-combine-saturday-winners-and-losers-taylor-lewan-c-j-fiedorowicz-impress/

Same writer from Feb. 20-4:30 p.m.: On top of meeting with the Patriots, Fiderowicz also said he models his game after Rob Gronkowski. Fiedorowicz is one of the best blocking tight ends in this year’s draft class.

I think Fiedorowicz had some excellent parts to his game, I've been saying so for months but it's also true that despite what the combine tells us, he does look athletically limited on tape. However, his very good performance at the combine certainly warrants rewatching his tape. He's 3rd-4th round situational player for me. I don't think that has changed.

 

[mayoclinic]

I think Fiedorowicz had some excellent parts to his game, I've been saying so for months but it's also true that despite what the combine tells us, he does look athletically limited on tape. However, his very good performance at the combine certainly warrants rewatching his tape. He's 3rd-4th round situational player for me. I don't think that has changed.

What a distressingly even-handed and high-minded take.

The thing is, we don't have access to all the background information, medical information, and film, and even then it's a crapshoot. Chandler Jones was a guy whose film just didn't square with his athleticism. Injuries probably had a lot to do with that. BB will obviously have access to all the details on Fiedorowicz. But it wouldn't be surprising for teams to differ widely on a prospect, even with all the information at their disposal.

 

[manxman2601]

What a distressingly even-handed and high-minded take.

The thing is, we don't have access to all the background information, medical information, and film, and even then it's a crapshoot. Chandler Jones was a guy whose film just didn't square with his athleticism. Injuries probably had a lot to do with that. BB will obviously have access to all the details on Fiedorowicz. But it wouldn't be surprising for teams to differ widely on a prospect, even with all the information at their disposal.

Agreed. I think the best we can say is that the chances of Fiedorowicz becoming a Patriot are higher today than they were Friday based upon the evidence we have access too.

 

[Off The Grid]

The thing is, we don't have access to all the background information, medical information, and film, and even then it's a crapshoot.

Chandler Jones was a guy whose film just didn't square with his athleticism.

Heh. Ain't that the truth??

As I recall, you and I were both on board ~ despite at least my previous disinterest ~ with that Pick within an Hour or so, or whenever it came out that his crappy Tape was a result of an Injury...Even so: Speaking for myself, it took more than the usual pinch of In Bill We Trust to make that Pick palatable.

...until the OTA's, that is.

 

[Snake Eyes]

I think Fiedorowicz had some excellent parts to his game, I've been saying so for months but it's also true that despite what the combine tells us, he does look athletically limited on tape. However, his very good performance at the combine certainly warrants rewatching his tape. He's 3rd-4th round situational player for me. I don't think that has changed.

Ok, suppose we go with that, who are we not drafting because we opt for the Fed?

If we're passing on Richburg or Christian Jones are you cool with that?

 

[manxman2601]

Ok, suppose we go with that, who are we not drafting because we opt for the Fed?

If we're passing on Richburg or Christian Jones are you cool with that?

That sort of thing is impossible to predict right now. All I can say is that I like The Fed enough to draft him in the 4th. Less convinced I'd want him in the 3rd but I wouldn't complain too loudly.

 

[mayoclinic]

Ok, suppose we go with that, who are we not drafting because we opt for the Fed?

If we're passing on Richburg or Christian Jones are you cool with that?

It all depends on your draft board. I personally have a 1st round value on Jones and a 2nd round value on Richburg, so I wouldn't be "cool" with it, but that's just my valuation.

 

[dryheat44]

I think Fiedorowicz had some excellent parts to his game, I've been saying so for months but it's also true that despite what the combine tells us, he does look athletically limited on tape. However, his very good performance at the combine certainly warrants rewatching his tape. He's 3rd-4th round situational player for me. I don't think that has changed.

Agreed. Let me clear up some misunderstanding. I think he's a good football player, and I wouldn't mind him at all on the Patriots. My comment was that he is not Gronkowski insurance, because unless Ferentz has kept his skills under wraps for some diabolical reason, he's not a play-maker in the passing game -- let alone a potential focal point of the offense. His role in this offense would be Hoomanawanui's -- to contribute with solid blocking and make the occasional big play when left alone.

 

[Big-T]

Another thing with Fiedorowicz is how was the QB play? I've seen him wide open at times - usually in the back of the end zone and be ignored (or he wasn't the first read, perhaps?).

Sometimes big guys just don't look athletic on the field too, it looks clumsy or pedestrian. What routes he ran can also make him look less athletic than his combine numbers indicate (did anyone really see those numbers coming though?).

 

[patsderoer]

I think Fiedorowicz had some excellent parts to his game, I've been saying so for months but it's also true that despite what the combine tells us, he does look athletically limited on tape. However, his very good performance at the combine certainly warrants rewatching his tape. He's 3rd-4th round situational player for me. I don't think that has changed.

Watching his "tape", it seems like 80% of his routes were very short routes, within 5yards from the LOS. The few times he was sent down the seam he was making the play. I think that the way he was used makes his tape look unimpressive.

 

[captain stone]

I agree with this. Fed's OC & QB did his tape few favors.

OTOH, if I'm waiting until our 4th-round pick to draft a TE, then I might lean toward
Arthur Lynch instead.

 

[patsfaninpa]

I agree with this. Fed's OC & QB did his tape few favors.

OTOH, if I'm waiting until our 4th-round pick to draft a TE, then I might lean toward
Arthur Lynch instead.

That's the way I'm looking at it. We're not winning it unless we improve the defense and have a healthy Gronk. Oh, we can draft a TE in the 1st and improve the offense in case Gronk can't go. Where does that leave the defense? I know it's not that simplistic. But, I'm focusing on improving the defense. An improved defense with our young wr's improving and a te like Lynch is a better team IMO.

 

[dryheat44]

My roster-building blueprint - 2/24

Here we go. I am using Wilfork75's excellent post as my template and jumping-off point, as far as cap space goes, so my thanks to him for the leg up.


Current Cap Space $10.887mil


Cap Housekeeping

Re-structure Wilfork- ($4.83m cap savings) I will re-structure Wilfork as mentioned in Miguel's blog: by extending Wilfork through the 2016 season while converting $2.5 million of his $7.5 million salary into a signing bonus. This cuts his 2014 cash intake by half (from $8 million to $4 million). The deal would offer Wilfork to recoup the money by reaching some NTLBE incentives.
Extend McCourty out to 2017. I don't know what kind of money it will take to retain him, but I think $1 million cap savings would be a safe estimate
Extend Gostkowski out to 2016. We'll assume another 1m cap savings.
Extend Connolly out to 2016. I think we can knock 1.5m off his number.
Definitely extend Slater and Vereen, but I don't think the cap impact is worth worrying about. The two could well offset.

Cut Sopoaga- ($2.005m saving)
No other cuts would represent significant savings, so I won't go through them here.

Net Cap Saving- 10.33m

Available Cap Space $21.217m


Free Agency Departures
As much as I'd like to keep Edelman, I can't see him leaving more money on the table if it's offered by another team. The former 7th round pick should be looking to max out. Spikes is quite obviously gone. Andre Carter retires. Wendell will have an offer from me and my blessing to shop it around. I'm guessing he goes elsewhere. Ditto Blount.

Retaining Free Agents

Re-sign CB Aqib Talib- 3 years $22.5m ($7.5m signing bonus) 1st year cap hit $6.5m

Re-sign MLB Dane Fletcher- 3 years $3.75m ($750k signing bonus) 1st year cap hit $1.25m

Re-sign TE Michael Hoomanawanuwi- 1 year $950k

Re-sign OT/G Will Svitek - 2 years $2.2m ($200k signing bonus) 1st year cap hit $1.1m

Re-sign LS Danny Aiken - 2 years $1.375mil (vet minimum, $75k signing bonus) 1st year cap hit 687.5k

Re-sign WR Austin Collie -1 year $1m ($50k roster bonus, rest payable in 17 weekly installments, based on being on the active roster -- we've gone this route before in recent years with an injury-prone or off-field risk player, although I don't remember with whom). I don't know how the cap is figured. I'd guess either he hits the cap for 1m and the team gets a credit next year for any unused balance, or it's written as a NTLBE. For this exercise, I'll count a 500k hit, since it's pretty easy to assume another 500 k savings by the cutting of guys like Marcus Forston, DJ Williams, Jake Bequette, etc.


Re-signings 1st year cap hits= $11m

Available Cap Space= 10.217m mas o menos


Other Notable Free Agent Signings

The problem with signing a guy like Hardy or Johnson to a big FA contract is figuring how much playing time they're going to see. If Ninkovich and Jones are our starting ends, how much is a rotational guy who doesn't play starter's snaps worth? Is Belichick comfortable with starting one of those guys in the Base defense over Ninkovich, who's been overall an excellent player within Belichick's scheme? It's hard for me to imagine signing one of those plum free agents to a five+ year, 45-55 million contract it's going to take. Therefore, I'm setting my sights a bit lower:

Sign FA DT Red Bryant - 3 years 13m ($1 mil SB, 1st year cap charge 4.33m) - From media accounts, Bryant and Belichick have a mutual admiration thing going on, and I can't imagine another team going significantly higher. Bryant can start next to Wilfork, with Tommy Kelly in the rotation. If Wilfork is slow coming back (and PUP is a possibility), Bryant gives us another experienced inside player who can play heavy minutes. If Bryant ends up re-signing with Seattle or going elsewhere, I would set my sights on Paul Soliai or Jason Hatcher, although I wouldn't pay as much.

Sign FA OL Geoff Schwartz - 3 years 7 1/2 million ($1 mil SB, 1st year cap charge 2.5m) - Just a nasty, nasty guard, who can kick out to right tackle if necessary. I like the thought of an interior lineup of Mankins-Connolly-Schwartz. Looking ahead, Schwartz also would be useful to have if Mankins has to be cut in upcoming years if his performance continues to decline in light of his salary.

Sign FA DE Jared Allen - 2 years $3m ($1m SB, 1st year cap charge 1.5m) - There are a lot of free agent DEs below the Hardy-Johnson-Orakpo level that can be had much cheaper and be useful situational players. Allen has made his mint. I hope the case can be made to come take a couple more shots at a Championship. Fall-back options include Justin Tuck or Corey Wooten.

Sign FA WR Hakeem Nicks - 2 years $3m (100% guaranteed, player can void after first year if certain criteria are met). Few players in the history of free agency had a worse contract year than Nicks. If he's right, he's a true #1 WR who can stretch a defense. He has a chance to play with Brady for a year and hit the market again in 2015. Could be a win-win band aid until we find out what we have in Dobson, Boyce, and Thompkins, and leaves the door open to a re-signing if he gets back to his previous form.


Free Agent 1st year cap hit= 9.85m


The draft:

We are not getting a 2nd round pick for Ryan Mallett because all the GMs stupid enough to do that either don't work as GMs any more, or have Tony Romo already. It does not make sense for the Patriots to trade him for anything less. Mallett will spend 2014 as Tom Brady's backup.

1. Calvin Pryor S Louisville - I don't think he'll be here, but this is his neighborhood on CBS.com, so until I do a first round mock (which I was planning to do today, but don't have time) I'll use their rankings, as is customary. I was hoping to get TJ Ward in free agency, but it looks like Cleveland is making a big push to re-sign him. Pryor is the best in the draft at his position, and this draft is already a win. If he's not here, I'm trading down to increase the number of picks in the sweet spot. Pryor is too good to pass up.

2. Marcus Smith DE Louisville - For as much as I'd like to trade up for ASJ, I want picks in this draft. Perhaps we can package a player to move up a dozen spots to grab him, but that seems like a bad assumption to make, given the scarcity of player trades during the draft. I suppose it's possible that Belichick trade forward from next year's draft given the talent this year, but that's very much unlike him. Let's stand pat and take the KY double-dip.

3. Marcus Martin C USC - Also too good to pass up. Could knock some established linemen off the roster.

4. Crockett Gilmore TE Colorado St - I feel as good about Gilmore as I do about any other non-Ebron TE to come in and make plays in the passing game, although I certainly don't think he's in the Hernandez/Eifert mode.

5. Antonio Andrews RB Western Kentucky - I like this kid at this spot. I don't think Ridley is likely to be re-signed, so this could be your starting RB in 2015, but will compete for time this year.

6. (Comp) Kevin Norwood WR Alabama - Value.

6. (Comp) Max Bullough MLB Michigan St - I still don't know why he's ranked so low. Could be the steal of the draft. With a compensatory 6th rounder, that would be appropriate.

7. Logan Thomas OW Virginia Tech - Hard to imagine he's here in the 7th, but here we are.

 

[everlong]

Re: My roster-building blueprint - 2/24

6. (Comp) Max Bullough MLB Michigan St - I still don't know why he's ranked so low. Could be the steal of the draft. With a compensatory 6th rounder, that would be appropriate.

He was suspended before the Rose Bowl for unknown reasons.

 

[dryheat44]

Re: My roster-building blueprint - 2/24

He was suspended before the Rose Bowl for unknown reasons.

I get that, but I can't imagine it was anything particularly serious, or we'd have heard about it somehow. Seems like a missed curfew/weed/booze infraction, which I'll admit doesn't show good judgement leading up to the biggest game of your career, but doesn't seem worthy of damning him to the end of the draft either.

His bloodlines are fantastic, he's the best front-seven player and leader of one of the elite defenses in the country, his measureables are fine, and his production is fantastic.

Maybe State can tell me what I'm not getting.

 

[Kontradiction]

Re: My roster-building blueprint - 2/24

Here we go. I am using Wilfork75's excellent post as my template and jumping-off point, as far as cap space goes, so my thanks to him for the leg up.


Current Cap Space $10.887mil


Cap Housekeeping

Re-structure Wilfork- ($4.83m cap savings) I will re-structure Wilfork as mentioned in Miguel's blog: by extending Wilfork through the 2016 season while converting $2.5 million of his $7.5 million salary into a signing bonus. This cuts his 2014 cash intake by half (from $8 million to $4 million). The deal would offer Wilfork to recoup the money by reaching some NTLBE incentives.
Extend McCourty out to 2017. I don't know what kind of money it will take to retain him, but I think $1 million cap savings would be a safe estimate
Extend Gostkowski out to 2016. We'll assume another 1m cap savings.
Extend Connolly out to 2016. I think we can knock 1.5m off his number.
Definitely extend Slater and Vereen, but I don't think the cap impact is worth worrying about. The two could well offset.

Cut Sopoaga- ($2.005m saving)
No other cuts would represent significant savings, so I won't go through them here.

Net Cap Saving- 10.33m

Available Cap Space $21.217m


Free Agency Departures
As much as I'd like to keep Edelman, I can't see him leaving more money on the table if it's offered by another team. The former 7th round pick should be looking to max out. Spikes is quite obviously gone. Andre Carter retires. Wendell will have an offer from me and my blessing to shop it around. I'm guessing he goes elsewhere. Ditto Blount.

Retaining Free Agents

Re-sign CB Aqib Talib- 3 years $22.5m ($7.5m signing bonus) 1st year cap hit $6.5m

Re-sign MLB Dane Fletcher- 3 years $3.75m ($750k signing bonus) 1st year cap hit $1.25m

Re-sign TE Michael Hoomanawanuwi- 1 year $950k

Re-sign OT/G Will Svitek - 2 years $2.2m ($200k signing bonus) 1st year cap hit $1.1m

Re-sign LS Danny Aiken - 2 years $1.375mil (vet minimum, $75k signing bonus) 1st year cap hit 687.5k

Re-sign WR Austin Collie -1 year $1m ($50k roster bonus, rest payable in 17 weekly installments, based on being on the active roster -- we've gone this route before in recent years with an injury-prone or off-field risk player, although I don't remember with whom). I don't know how the cap is figured. I'd guess either he hits the cap for 1m and the team gets a credit next year for any unused balance, or it's written as a NTLBE. For this exercise, I'll count a 500k hit, since it's pretty easy to assume another 500 k savings by the cutting of guys like Marcus Forston, DJ Williams, Jake Bequette, etc.


Re-signings 1st year cap hits= $11m

Available Cap Space= 10.217m mas o menos


Other Notable Free Agent Signings

The problem with signing a guy like Hardy or Johnson to a big FA contract is figuring how much playing time they're going to see. If Ninkovich and Jones are our starting ends, how much is a rotational guy who doesn't play starter's snaps worth? Is Belichick comfortable with starting one of those guys in the Base defense over Ninkovich, who's been overall an excellent player within Belichick's scheme? It's hard for me to imagine signing one of those plum free agents to a five+ year, 45-55 million contract it's going to take. Therefore, I'm setting my sights a bit lower:

Sign FA DT Red Bryant - 3 years 13m ($1 mil SB, 1st year cap charge 4.33m) - From media accounts, Bryant and Belichick have a mutual admiration thing going on, and I can't imagine another team going significantly higher. Bryant can start next to Wilfork, with Tommy Kelly in the rotation. If Wilfork is slow coming back (and PUP is a possibility), Bryant gives us another experienced inside player who can play heavy minutes. If Bryant ends up re-signing with Seattle or going elsewhere, I would set my sights on Paul Soliai or Jason Hatcher, although I wouldn't pay as much.

Sign FA OL Geoff Schwartz - 3 years 7 1/2 million ($1 mil SB, 1st year cap charge 2.5m) - Just a nasty, nasty guard, who can kick out to right tackle if necessary. I like the thought of an interior lineup of Mankins-Connolly-Schwartz. Looking ahead, Schwartz also would be useful to have if Mankins has to be cut in upcoming years if his performance continues to decline in light of his salary.

Sign FA DE Jared Allen - 2 years $3m ($1m SB, 1st year cap charge 1.5m) - There are a lot of free agent DEs below the Hardy-Johnson-Orakpo level that can be had much cheaper and be useful situational players. Allen has made his mint. I hope the case can be made to come take a couple more shots at a Championship. Fall-back options include Justin Tuck or Corey Wooten.

Sign FA WR Hakeem Nicks - 2 years $3m (100% guaranteed, player can void after first year if certain criteria are met). Few players in the history of free agency had a worse contract year than Nicks. If he's right, he's a true #1 WR who can stretch a defense. He has a chance to play with Brady for a year and hit the market again in 2015. Could be a win-win band aid until we find out what we have in Dobson, Boyce, and Thompkins, and leaves the door open to a re-signing if he gets back to his previous form.


Free Agent 1st year cap hit= 9.85m


The draft:

We are not getting a 2nd round pick for Ryan Mallett because all the GMs stupid enough to do that either don't work as GMs any more, or have Tony Romo already. It does not make sense for the Patriots to trade him for anything less. Mallett will spend 2014 as Tom Brady's backup.

1. Calvin Pryor S Louisville - I don't think he'll be here, but this is his neighborhood on CBS.com, so until I do a first round mock (which I was planning to do today, but don't have time) I'll use their rankings, as is customary. I was hoping to get TJ Ward in free agency, but it looks like Cleveland is making a big push to re-sign him. Pryor is the best in the draft at his position, and this draft is already a win. If he's not here, I'm trading down to increase the number of picks in the sweet spot. Pryor is too good to pass up.

2. Marcus Smith DE Louisville - For as much as I'd like to trade up for ASJ, I want picks in this draft. Perhaps we can package a player to move up a dozen spots to grab him, but that seems like a bad assumption to make, given the scarcity of player trades during the draft. I suppose it's possible that Belichick trade forward from next year's draft given the talent this year, but that's very much unlike him. Let's stand pat and take the KY double-dip.

3. Marcus Martin C USC - Also too good to pass up. Could knock some established linemen off the roster.

4. Crockett Gilmore TE Colorado St - I feel as good about Gilmore as I do about any other non-Ebron TE to come in and make plays in the passing game, although I certainly don't think he's in the Hernandez/Eifert mode.

5. Antonio Andrews RB Western Kentucky - I like this kid at this spot. I don't think Ridley is likely to be re-signed, so this could be your starting RB in 2015, but will compete for time this year.

6. (Comp) Kevin Norwood WR Alabama - Value.

6. (Comp) Max Bullough MLB Michigan St - I still don't know why he's ranked so low. Could be the steal of the draft. With a compensatory 6th rounder, that would be appropriate.

7. Logan Thomas OW Virginia Tech - Hard to imagine he's here in the 7th, but here we are.

Bravo, good sir. Like the late selection of Norwood. He would be thrown into the mix immediately in the slot for snaps vs. Boyce. Not as fast as Boyce but has very good awareness and soft hands.

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

Three million isn't going to get Allen even if he wanted to take a discount to play here

 

[Brady6]

Donald might be a top 10 pick after his combine performance; he has the game tape to back it up.

Mayock: Pitt's Donald just as impressive as Clowney at combine - NFL.com