Rumor: Denver Broncos may pursue Julian Edelman

[Deus Irae]

I found the post. It was in the context of discussing how Stallworth had been used:

according to ESPN.com:


Brady had 13 completions of more than 30 yards in 25 attempts.

Brady 31-40yds: 6-9
Brady 41+: 7-16
Total: 13-25 (.520)

E. Manning 31-40yds: 3-19
E. Manning 41+: 1-5
Total: 4-24 (.167)

P. Manning 31-40yds: 9-20
P. Manning 41+: 0-2
Total: 9-22 (.409)

Palmer 31-40yds: 3-15
Palmer 41+: 4-14
Total: 7-29 (.241)

Brees 31-40yds: 6-16
Brees 41+: 1-3
Total: 7-19 (.368)

Anderson 31-40yds: 4-13
Anderson 41+: 0-2
Total: 4-15 (.267)

Cutler 31-40yds: 3-14
Cutler 41+: 2-8
Total: 5-22 (.227)

Garrard 31-40yds: 2-9
Garrard 41+: 2-6
Total: 4-15 (.267)

M. Hasselbeck 31-40yds: 1-12
M. Hasselbeck 41+: 3-6
Total: 4-18 (.222)

Kitna 31-40yds: 4-16
Kitna 41+: 1-6
Total: 5-22 (.227)

McNabb 31-40yds: 1-9
McNabb 41+: 2-7
Total: 3-16 (.188)

Rivers 31-40yds: 2-17
Rivers 41+: 2-5
Total: 4-22 (.182)

Roethlisberger 31-40yds: 6-8
Roethlisberger 41+: 2-8
Total: 8-16 (.500)

Romo 31-40yds: 7-14
Romo 41+: 0-0
Total: 7-14 (.500)

Schaub 31-40yds: 6-10
Schaub 41+: 1-2
Total: 7-12 (.583)

Warner 31-40yds: 1-6
Warner 41+: 1-3
Total: 2-9 (.222)

Young 31-40yds: 2-13
Young 41+: 1-6
Total: 3-19 (.158)

Out of this extensive group of quarterbacks, only Schaub threw 31+ yards passes at a higher percentage than Brady (and that's even when you include the second half incompletions/interceptions against Miami in the 'get Randy the record' bombfest), and the closest any quarterback came to Brady's 13 completions at that distance was Peyton Manning, who was a distant second with just 9.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/80690-does-mcdaniels-hold-team-back-page5.html#post858307

I know that I have other stuff like that around, but I don't think I focused on that much after Brady's injury, because I think ESPN stopped carrying the yardage splits in the same way, at least for a while.

 

[ripatsfan91]

I believe he makes that throw 9 out of 10 times. Oh he isnt a good deep ball thrower? What about Week12/13 Broncos game, Brady threw a ball into 30mph winds that hit Edelman right on the money for 40 yards. Or what about the ball to amendola in the divisional round that was a 60 yard throw?

Could your stance be about the weapons he has had around him? Since Moss left, our primary receivers were Branch and Welker. Thats good because most deep threats aren't over 5'9 right?

Brady throws a very catchable deep ball. This season I remember countless times where Dobson and Thompkins would flat out dropped balls that should have been caught.

 

[supafly]

I believe he makes that throw 9 out of 10 times. Oh he isnt a good deep ball thrower?

To each his own, but I just showed you stats that claim that he's under 30% over 30 yards in the past 3 years.

You're free to believe whatever you want, but the stats show that he'd have been lucky to complete that pass 3/10x, let alone 9/10. As a matter of fact, I don't imagine that even the best QB in the history of the NFL could realistically have hit that throw 9/10 times, whether you believe it's Tom Brady or not.

What about Week12/13 Broncos game, Brady threw a ball into 30mph winds that hit Edelman right on the money for 40 yards. Or what about the ball to amendola in the divisional round that was a 60 yard throw?

Brady throws a very catchable deep ball.

I'm not talking about arm strength. We all know that he has great arm strength into the wind, and plays the elements better than probably anyone in the game. I'm talking about his deep ball struggles over the past several seasons.

Again, to each his own, but if you look at the posts on the previous page, you'll see that he's barely throwing 50% on anything above FIFTEEN yards, let alone 30 yards (which is considered a good measuring stick for "deep" balls) where he's hitting less than 30 percent.

I may have been wrong to over-generalize his struggles on the level of his whole career, but I'm not wrong in bringing up his deeper ball struggles over the past few/several seasons. They have been long discussed many times here.

I don't think it really matters that much anyway, since our offense is dominated by the shorter passing attack in the first place. Obviously we still take shots downfield at times, and a lot of those are in attempts to keep the defense honest, along with catching them off guard in play action situations.

 

[supafly]

I know that I have other stuff like that around, but I don't think I focused on that much after Brady's injury, because I think ESPN stopped carrying the yardage splits in the same way, at least for a while.

Thanks. I hope you didn't have to dig around that long. It's really not that important.

I assume since Stallworth is brought up, along with looking at the some of the other names of the QBs compared that it's safe to say that this is from the Randy Moss era, then?

It'd be nice to have another tall, fast, physical receiver like that. He really was a gem of a WR.

 

[Deus Irae]

Just as a reference....

Drew Brees' last 3 seasons, from 31+

31-83


I think a part of the problem may be that people here don't compare the QBs on this topic enough to appreciate how much the percentages drop once you start getting that deep downfield, so this becomes a bit overblown and ends up as an uncontested "truth".

 

[Deus Irae]

Thanks. I hope you didn't have to dig around that long. It's really not that important.

I assume since Stallworth is brought up, along with looking at the some of the other names of the QBs compared that it's safe to say that this is from the Randy Moss era, then?

It'd be nice to have another tall, fast, physical receiver like that. He really was a gem of a WR.

Those were from 2007. I think it's worth noting that Brady was completing better than 50% of the deep balls with that lineup, and is not anywhere near that with the likes of what's been around since Moss declined and then move on.