An Approach To The Offseason

[mgteich]

As I recall, I did not have Elam as the top safety choice at 29. I had Cyprian. However, since Cyprian was considered a free safety, I wasn't surprised that Belichick traded down.

In any case, Elam is an example for discussion. You you use Cyprian's name and have the same discussion.

The question is whether
1) safety was a place of serious need, and
2) whether it was worth taking a shot at a safety at 29 or trade down.

Belichick traded down. I suspect that he was and is much more comfortable with Gregory starting than many posters. He did draft harmon and brought in A. Wilson as a backup, so Belichick certainly saw the need for help. Even now, I would not be surprised if Gregory were extended.

Unless you watch coaching film you have no idea how good Matt Elam is. Watching film of rookie safties I can tell you Cyprian, Reid and Matheiu were all better and Collins played great in the playoffs. For all you know Elam wasn't on the Patriots draft board and The patriots have one of the best safeties in the league in DMac and Gregory can play in a robber role.

 

[Deus Irae]

It boils down to we disagree with Elam's play pretty much.

I think you misunderstand my position. I haven't championed Elam. I've championed the idea of getting the safety. Elam/Cyprien/Swearinger... any of them would have been fine, in terms of attempting to address the issue.

Instead, they chose to trade down for a hybrid LB who people are wildly overrating based upon one game and a couple of plays in a second game, at the expense of not fixing their safety position for yet another year. I'll repeat what I said during the draft: My issue is not with Collins. My issue is with the positions drafted. If they liked Collins so much, they should have drafted the safety and then looked for a trading partner to get back into the second round for Collins.

The Patriots now continue to have a gaping hole at safety, when it could have been addressed and fixed. But, hey, Collins dropped back in coverage and Manning didn't see him, so we've got that going for us.

 

[All22PatsFan]

McCourty led safties with seven pass breakouts, he has elite closing speed, rarely misses takes missing, one every 15. PFF has him as there top ranked S. Noting his better tackling and taking better angles then Earl Thomas

 

[Deus Irae]

McCourty led safties with seven pass breakouts, he has elite closing speed, rarely misses takes missing, one every 15. PFF has him as there top ranked S. Noting his better tackling and taking better angles then Earl Thomas

PFF sucks for anything beyond basic raw numbers (i.e. snaps taken). Using it just shows that your argument's not worth taking seriously.

 

[mgteich]

You re-stated your argument well.

You saw (and see) such a huge need at safety, that you thought that we should have ignored offers and simply chose the best safety at 29.

I think that Elam or Cyprien would have been solid additions, but I am not sure that that Belichick isn't happier with Collins, Ryan and Boyce.

IMHO, your argument comes into better focus when you mention Swearinger, He would have been a huge reach at 29, worth it to you because of need, the very type of thing that we have criticized Belichick for when he drafted Wilson and Harmon.

We certainly could have chosen Swearinger instead of Collins. In three years, we will see which choice turned out better. I'm not sure that Swearinger has a better future than Harmon. But, we'll see. Neither impressed much as a rookie. At the time, I certainly wanted us to draft Swearinger.

No, it really doesn't. I haven't championed Elam. I've championed the idea of getting the safety. Elam/Cyprien/Swearinger... any of them would have been fine, in terms of attempting to address the issue.

Instead, they chose to trade down for a hybrid LB who people are wildly overrating based upon one game and a couple of plays in a second game, at the expense of not fixing their safety position for yet another year. I'll repeat what I said during the draft: My issue is not with Collins. My issue is with the positions drafted. If they liked Collins so much, they should have drafted the safety and then looked for a trading partner to get back into the second round for Collins.

The Patriots now continue to have a gaping hole at safety, when it could have been addressed and fixed. But, hey, Collins dropped back in coverage and Manning didn't see him, so we've got that going for us.

 

[All22PatsFan]

No, it really doesn't. I haven't championed Elam. I've championed the idea of getting the safety. Elam/Cyprien/Swearinger... any of them would have been fine, in terms of attempting to address the issue.

Instead, they chose to trade down for a hybrid LB who people are wildly overrating based upon one game and a couple of plays in a second game, at the expense of not fixing their safety position for yet another year. I'll repeat what I said during the draft: My issue is not with Collins. My issue is with the positions drafted. If they liked Collins so much, they should have drafted the safety and then looked for a trading partner to get back into the second round for Collins.

The Patriots now continue to have a gaping hole at safety, when it could have been addressed and fixed. But, hey, Collins dropped back in coverage and Manning didn't see him, so we've got that going for us.

Gregory played fine this yr no need to replace him. Collins has proven to be an elite blitzer, solid in coverage and solid against the run, elite special teamed. Collins had a sack, 5 QB hits and 8 hurries on 43 pass rushes. Jamie Collins played better then Dion Jordan. The fact that you don't like Devin McCourty shows that you don't watch film and in order to evaluate safety play you have to watch film.

 

[mayoclinic]

No, it really doesn't. I haven't championed Elam. I've championed the idea of getting the safety. Elam/Cyprien/Swearinger... any of them would have been fine, in terms of attempting to address the issue.

Instead, they chose to trade down for a hybrid LB who people are wildly overrating based upon one game and a couple of plays in a second game, at the expense of not fixing their safety position for yet another year. I'll repeat what I said during the draft: My issue is not with Collins. My issue is with the positions drafted. If they liked Collins so much, they should have drafted the safety and then looked for a trading partner to get back into the second round for Collins.

The Patriots now continue to have a gaping hole at safety, when it could have been addressed and fixed. But, hey, Collins dropped back in coverage and Manning didn't see him, so we've got that going for us.

I personally had Collins, Cyprien and Swearinger all rated very high on my draft board, with Collins having the highest upside of the 3. I didn't think much of Elam, and still don't.

I was pissed when Houston took Swearinger 2 picks ahead of us at 57. I would personally have traded up to get him, but that's just me. But safety was only one of several needs, and unless you are going to draft exclusively for need I can't see that missing out on one position is worth crying about. I personally thought Collins was a rare talent over a year ago, and I'm willing to risk losing out on a safety to get him.

According to Robert Kraft, the Pats got who they wanted:

"If we had drafted in the top 20-25, we would have taken the same players that we took later. For us, from a cap point of view of having financial flexibility, and the talent, I think this draft wound up very well for us. I understand fans who don’t have the full knowledge of what goes and the value that’s there, how they could be disappointed. But I think we got the equivalent of first-round draft choices in the second and third round, the way I look at it. Time will tell.”

Robert Kraft on draft class & more - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

Time will tell.

 

[mayoclinic]

BTW, I like Calvin Pryor better than any safety prospect from 2013. Following Deus' argument for a pre-eminent need to draft a safety, the Pats should target Pryor at 29, or with a trade-up. I'd love to get Pryor, but I personally don' see the Pats going that way.

 

[patsinthesnow]

No, it really doesn't. I haven't championed Elam. I've championed the idea of getting the safety. Elam/Cyprien/Swearinger... any of them would have been fine, in terms of attempting to address the issue.

Instead, they chose to trade down for a hybrid LB who people are wildly overrating based upon one game and a couple of plays in a second game, at the expense of not fixing their safety position for yet another year. I'll repeat what I said during the draft: My issue is not with Collins. My issue is with the positions drafted. If they liked Collins so much, they should have drafted the safety and then looked for a trading partner to get back into the second round for Collins.

The Patriots now continue to have a gaping hole at safety, when it could have been addressed and fixed. But, hey, Collins dropped back in coverage and Manning didn't see him, so we've got that going for us.

Ok. Out of those 3, IMO Cyprien was a pretty good safety for a rookie. Say we draft Cyprien at 29:

Your draft so far:

Cyprien 29th overall.

Remaining picks: 59, 91, two 7ths.

Now you say if we liked Collins so much, we could of traded back in to the 2nd round to get him. With what trade capital? 91 and two 7ths would of moved us up a couple spots in the 3rd round. We couldn't of moved back into the 2nd to get Collins unless we don't draft Dobson. Collins would of not lasted until pick 91 and Dobson very unlikely.

No. 29: New England ? Minnesota (D). New England traded this selection to Minnesota in exchange for Minnesota's 2013 second- (52nd), third- (83rd), fourth- (102nd), and seventh- (229th) round selections

My point:

We could not of drafted Elam/Cyprien as well as Dobson and Collins, unless we used future draft picks to move up.

So the argument becomes:

29. Elam/Cyprien
59. Dobson
91. whoever you wanted

vs.

52. Collins
59. Dobson
83. Ryan
91. Harmon
102. Boyce

I would still rather what the Patriots did.

 

[Deus Irae]

You re-stated your argument well.

You saw (and see) such a huge need at safety, that you thought that we should have ignored offers and simply chose the best safety at 29.

I think that Elam or Cyprien would have been solid additions, but I am not sure that that Belichick isn't happier with Collins, Ryan and Boyce.

IMHO, your argument comes into better focus when you mention Swearinger, He would have been a huge reach at 29, worth it to you because of need, the very type of thing that we have criticized Belichick for when he drafted Wilson and Harmon.

We certainly could have chosen Swearinger instead of Collins. In three years, we will see which choice turned out better. I'm not sure that Swearinger has a better future than Harmon. But, we'll see. Neither impressed much as a rookie. At the time, I certainly wanted us to draft Swearinger.

To be clear, I didn't mind trading down as long as they still got their safety. I knew the draft was 3-deep at the top of the position, so my thinking was that they couldn't drop down very far. When they dropped as far as they did, I was pissed/worried because I thought they'd miss out on all 3. When their turn came up again and Swearinger was still there, I thought BB had played it brilliantly and was giving him an internal hat tip for knowing the draft so well.

Then he took Collins and turned happiness into disgust...



Collins is a DE/LB who can't stand up at the point of attack, and who wasn't needed at the time.

Ryan's a CB5. With some work, he may one day become a CB4. He's a homeless man's Arrington.

Harmon's got less range than Gregory, is he's nowhere near as heady a player, and isn't nearly the player that Elam, Cyprien or Swearinger are.


They needed the safety. Instead, they got 2 backups and a front seven player who can only tackle from behind right now.

 

[Deus Irae]

Gregory played fine this yr no need to replace him. Collins has proven to be an elite blitzer, solid in coverage and solid against the run, elite special teamed. Collins had a sack, 5 QB hits and 8 hurries on 43 pass rushes. Jamie Collins played better then Dion Jordan. The fact that you don't like Devin McCourty shows that you don't watch film and in order to evaluate safety play you have to watch film.

1.) I like McCourty, so I'm not sure what the hell you think you're talking about. McCourty is one safety. The Patriots use two.

2.) I'd like to thank the Patriots front office for taking the time to come here and post, even though they're posting ridiculously homeristic nonsense.

 

[mgteich]

So, let's take the need for WR out of the picture. We would likely to ahve the same WR's under either scenario.

I suggest that we would have chosen Boyce at 91.

So, the options (looking back)

OPTION 1
Elam (the strong safety)

OPTION 2
Ryan, Collins, Harmon
==============

We'll see. After one year, I suspect that we will have more future production from Option 2. Ryan was a really good acquisition.

So the argument becomes:

29. Elam/Cyprien
59. Dobson
91. whoever you wanted

vs.

52. Collins
59. Dobson
83. Ryan
91. Harmon
102. Boyce

I would still rather what the Patriots did.

 

[All22PatsFan]

McCourty was only 18 times and only allowed 9 catches for 114 yards and 2 TDs on 610 coverage snaps. So he had a rate of 33.89 snaps per target, basically locking down the deep half of the field. Gregory played well this year and Harmon was solid when he played, he could even start over Gregory

 

[Deus Irae]

Ok. Out of those 3, IMO Cyprien was a pretty good safety for a rookie. Say we draft Cyprien at 29:

Your draft so far:

Cyprien 29th overall.

Remaining picks: 59, 91, two 7ths.

Now you say if we liked Collins so much, we could of traded back in to the 2nd round to get him. With what trade capital? 91 and two 7ths would of moved us up a couple spots in the 3rd round. We couldn't of moved back into the 2nd to get Collins unless we don't draft Dobson. Collins would of not lasted until pick 91 and Dobson very unlikely.




My point:

We could not of drafted Elam/Cyprien as well as Dobson and Collins, unless we used future draft picks to move up.

So the argument becomes:

29. Elam/Cyprien
59. Dobson
91. whoever you wanted

vs.

52. Collins
59. Dobson
83. Ryan
91. Harmon
102. Boyce

I would still rather what the Patriots did.

There's more than one year worth of draft picks available. Ryan and Harmon are backups. Boyce is likely to flame out.

The Patriots screwed up. I hope I'm wrong, but that's where it's at right now, IMO.

 

[mayoclinic]

To be clear, I didn't mind trading down as long as they still got their safety. I knew the draft was 3-deep at the top of the position, so my thinking was that they couldn't drop down very far. When they dropped as far as they did, I was pissed/worried because I thought they'd miss out on all 3. When their turn came up again and Swearinger was still there, I thought BB had played it brilliantly and was giving him an internal hat tip for knowing the draft so well.

Then he took Collins and turned happiness into disgust...

Collins is a DE/LB who can't stand up at the point of attack, and who wasn't needed at the time.

If your philosophy is to draft for immediate need, then you can make an argument for Swearinger over Collins at 52. If you're not, then you take the player you project to be better. Again, I liked both, and had Collins rated higher. From Mr. Krafts' comments, it's not clear that the Pats rated Swearinger that highly, and they checked him out:

Two teams in particular could be very interested in the versatile, hard-hitting defensive back. Swearinger said he has talked to representatives from the New England Patriots and the Baltimore Ravens, two teams that could be looking to draft a safety. With New England, he would relish the opportunity to work with Bill Belichick.

"I love the style of New England's defense, and I like coach Belichick, how he does things, how disciplined he is," Swearinger said. "They win championships, and I think I can help be a part of that."

NFL Draft 2013: D.J. Swearinger says Patriots, Ravens among teams showing interest - SBNation.com

I personally had no problem taking Collins at 52. I would have traded up ahead of Houston to take Swearinger (say 59 + 102, with a 5th round pick back in addition to the trade up), then taken WRs at 83 and 93. My draft would have ended up something like:

52. Collins
56 (using Baltimore as a trade partner, also getting 129). Swearinger
83. Best available WR - call it Quinton Patton.
93. Best available WR - call it Boyce.
129. Tharold Simon, CB, LSU (who ended up going on IR for Seattle).

I'm not sure my draft would have ended up helping the Pats as much this year, given the hole at WR and the fact that Simon ended up on IR. But again, doesn't it just come down to crying because the Pats' board ended up being different than yours or mine?

 

[All22PatsFan]

There's more than one year worth of draft picks available. Ryan and Harmon are backups. Boyce is likely to flame out.

The Patriots screwed up. I hope I'm wrong, but that's where it's at right now, IMO.

Ryan and Harmon can be starters. Boyce can develop. Dobson is going to become a stud, teams doubled him downfield, and he has amazing hands.
Collins is going to be a stud as well he has elite athletism and is great pass rusher, run defender and in coverage.

 

[patsinthesnow]

There's more than one year worth of draft picks available. Ryan and Harmon are backups. Boyce is likely to flame out.

The Patriots screwed up. I hope I'm wrong, but that's where it's at right now, IMO.

Ok, this is fair. We agree on Boyce/Harmon. I think Ryan has more potential.

 

[mgteich]

I'm glad that we have Ryan.

With Talib, Dennard and Arrington ALL healthy, we indeed have a CB trio. How often do you think that will happen?

Folks should be considering the importance of a FIFTH corner, given our injury issues with our top three.

I think Ryan has more potential, but it doesn't matter since we already had a CB trio.

 

[patsinthesnow]

I'm glad that we have Ryan.

With Talib, Dennard and Arrington ALL healthy, we indeed have a CB trio. How often do you think that will happen?

Folks should be considering the importance of a FIFTH corner, given our injury issues with our top three.

Agreed. That's why I edited what I said shortly after.

 

[mayoclinic]

Looking forward to 2014 for a moment instead of crying over 2013, I've been calling for the DL to be a focus, as much at DE as at DT. Here's an interesting take on the Pats' approach in 2013 vs. Seattle's:

Patriots? Pass Rush Would Benefit By Borrowing From Seahawks? Defensive Mindset | Seattle Seahawks | NESN.com

It's particularly interesting how the Seahawks have put a bunch of non-elite players together in combinations that have been absolutely stellar:

The brilliance in putting the Seahawks’ various front-four alignments together was how easy it was to find these players. Bennett and Mebane make it tick, since they’re consistent pass rushers and run stoppers, but Clemons, Avril, Bryant and McDonald are all fairly one-dimensional players, with strengths against either the run or pass. One-dimensional players come cheaper in free agency and lower in the draft. By mixing and matching the complete players, the run stoppers and pass rushers, the Seahawks are never completely vulnerable. It helps, of course, that the Seahawks have athletic linebackers and a top-tier secondary. But the Patriots also have solid linebackers and defensive backs.

I agree with Kyed on this in particular:

The Patriots can’t play their nose tackle, whether it’s Wilfork or Sealver Siliga, on third down. And they can’t let Jones and Ninkovich play more than 1,000 snaps. This is an important offseason for the Patriots, and on defense, it?s all about improving depth with some key role players.

Patriots? Pass Rush Would Benefit By Borrowing From Seahawks? Defensive Mindset | Seattle Seahawks | NESN.com