Defense - A Zero Sum Game Capwise

[mgteich]

MODEST PROPOSAL - A CAP NEUTRAL FREE AGENCY
1) Extend Wilfork (save $4M) or restructure (save $3.5M)
2) Cut Sopoaga (save $2M)
3) Cut Adrian Wilson (save $.7M)
3) Sign Talib long-term ($5M first year cap effect)
5) Re-sign Fletcher (costing about $.7M, if that much)
4) Use the other million or a JAG or two.
5) Wait until camp to assess Kelly (and cut him if he cannot compete).
6) Obviously, I don't think that we will re-sign Spikes.

IF WE HAVE THE MONEY
A) We need an upgrade to Gregory (we could simply cut Gregory and sign a replacement)
B) We need a rotational DE. Ninkovich and Jones can't play over 95% of the plays forever.
C) We need a situational pass-rusher as an upgrade over Carter, Bequette and Buchanan.

ASSUMPTION
Wilfork will be on the 2014 roster or on IR.

 

[mayoclinic]

MODEST PROPOSAL - A CAP NEUTRAL FREE AGENCY
1) Extend Wilfork (save $4M) or restructure (save $3.5M)
2) Cut Sopoaga (save $2M)
3) Cut Adrian Wilson (save $.7M)
3) Sign Talib long-term ($5M first year cap effect)
5) Re-sign Fletcher (costing about $.7M, if that much)
4) Use the other million or a JAG or two.
5) Wait until camp to assess Kelly (and cut him if he cannot compete).
6) Obviously, I don't think that we will re-sign Spikes.

IF WE HAVE THE MONEY
A) We need an upgrade to Gregory (we could simply cut Gregory and sign a replacement)
B) We need a rotational DE. Ninkovich and Jones can't play over 95% of the plays forever.
C) We need a situational pass-rusher as an upgrade over Carter, Bequette and Buchanan.

ASSUMPTION
Wilfork will be on the 2014 roster or on IR.

Why would we possibly extend Wilfork if there is any question that he might be ready, or able to come back? If he isn't physically able, we're screwed.

Here's an alternative proposal:

1) Cut Wilfork. It hurts like hell, but it makes sense. It's very unlikely that he'll come back and be the player he was from 2004-2012. The move saves $7.5M in cap space. Wilfork has a $4M cap hit from his bonus. Make him the DL coach, with Pat Graham moving back to LB coach (or make him a defensive assistant), and Mr. Kraft can make sure he's reasonably taken care of. He's already been advising the newbies, and flew with the team to Denver. The team would love having a coach who so attuned to playing. Let him rehab on the side, and if he is physically able to come back he could be re-signed for 2015. It would all Wilfork to rehab slowly, and not burn bridges.
2) Cut Sopoaga (save $2M)
3) Cut Adrian Wilson (save $.7M)
4) Let Brandon Spikes walk.
5) Sign Talib long-term ($5M first year cap effect)
6) Sign UFA DT Linval Joseph (NY Giants; $4.5M first year cap effect). Joseph is only 25, and a very solid run-stopper and overall DT.
7) Re-sign Fletcher (costing about $.7M, if that much)
8) Wait until camp to assess Kelly (cut him if he cannot compete; if possible, rework his deal to lower his cap hit).
9) Andre Carter retires (or isn't re-signed in any case).

The math works out:

- 2014 cap savings: $7.5M Wilfork + $2M Sapoaga + $0.7M Adrian Wilson = $10.2M
- FA 2014 cap hit: $5M Talib + $4.5M Joseph + $0.7M Fletcher = $10.2M

That leaves us with:

- Joseph, Armstead, Siliga and Chris Jones at DT, all of whom are 25 or younger, plus Vellano as possible depth and Kelly if he is re-signed.
- Chandler Jones, Ninkovich and Buchanan at DE.
- Mayo, Hightower, Collins, Fletcher and Beauharnais at LB.
- McCourty, Gregory, Harmon, Tavon Wilson and Ebner at S.
- Talib, Dennard, Ryan and Arrington at CB.

That would leave us going into the draft with the following needs:

1. A rotational DE. High priority.
2. Possibly an additional DT, depending on the situation with Kelly and the FO's assessment of Vellano, Forston and Grissom. Medium priority.
3. An upgrade for Gregory or Wilson at S. Medium priority.
4. A 5th CB, preferably a big CB who can play outside for depth and allow Arrington to stay in the slot. Fairly high priority, but these can generally be found on day 3 of the draft.

 

[mgteich]

Our only difference is with regard to Wilfork. You think that we can sign him for $100K to hang around as a coach and rehab for 2015. Good luck with that. You say that Kraft will make sure that he is "reasonably taken care of" What does that mean? Will he be paid more than other coaches? I think that only ones who makes real money are Belichick and perhaps the coordinators.

I would NOT be shocked if we cut Wilfork and sign a replacement like Joseph.

But. let's be real. If we cut Wilfork, we can add him to list of players who will not be back.

In any case, I think that this situation needs to resolved early in free agency. We need the cap savings from a cut, restructure or extension.

Why would we possibly extend Wilfork if there is any question that he might be ready, or able to come back? If he isn't physically able, we're screwed.

Here's an alternative proposal:

1) Cut Wilfork. It hurts like hell, but it makes sense. It's very unlikely that he'll come back and be the player he was from 2004-2012. The move saves $7.5M in cap space. Wilfork has a $4M cap hit from his bonus. Make him the DL coach, with Pat Graham moving back to LB coach (or make him a defensive assistant), and Mr. Kraft can make sure he's reasonably taken care of. He's already been advising the newbies, and flew with the team to Denver. The team would love having a coach who so attuned to playing. Let him rehab on the side, and if he is physically able to come back he could be re-signed for 2015. It would all Wilfork to rehab slowly, and not burn bridges.
2) Cut Sopoaga (save $2M)
3) Cut Adrian Wilson (save $.7M)
4) Let Brandon Spikes walk.
5) Sign Talib long-term ($5M first year cap effect)
6) Sign UFA DT Linval Joseph (NY Giants; $4.5M first year cap effect). Joseph is only 25, and a very solid run-stopper and overall DT.
7) Re-sign Fletcher (costing about $.7M, if that much)
8) Wait until camp to assess Kelly (cut him if he cannot compete; if possible, rework his deal to lower his cap hit).
9) Andre Carter retires (or isn't re-signed in any case).

The math works out:

- 2014 cap savings: $7.5M Wilfork + $2M Sapoaga + $0.7M Adrian Wilson = $10.2M
- FA 2014 cap hit: $5M Talib + $4.5M Joseph + $0.7M Fletcher = $10.2M

That leaves us with:

- Joseph, Armstead, Siliga and Chris Jones at DT, all of whom are 25 or younger, plus Vellano as possible depth and Kelly if he is re-signed.
- Chandler Jones, Ninkovich and Buchanan at DE.
- Mayo, Hightower, Collins, Fletcher and Beauharnais at LB.
- McCourty, Gregory, Harmon, Tavon Wilson and Ebner at S.
- Talib, Dennard, Ryan and Arrington at CB.

That would leave us going into the draft with the following needs:

1. A rotational DE. High priority.
2. Possibly an additional DT, depending on the situation with Kelly and the FO's assessment of Vellano, Forston and Grissom. Medium priority.
3. An upgrade for Gregory or Wilson at S. Medium priority.
4. A 5th CB, preferably a big CB who can play outside for depth and allow Arrington to stay in the slot. Fairly high priority, but these can generally be found on day 3 of the draft.

 

[mayoclinic]

I doubt defensive coaches are payed $100K. Coordinators often make in the $1M range, and I suspect you could pay Wilfork in that range without alienating the staff given the situation. Gregg Williams made over $1M/year from 2004-2007 as the DC of the Redskins, and Sean Payton chipped in some of his own salary to up Williams' salary to around $1.3M when he was hired by New Orleans in 2009. Hudson Houck was paid $1M/season by the Cowboys when he was their offensive line coach (he retired in 2012).

Every single member of the Pats' organization knows how much Wilfork has meant to the team, and how much leadership, experience and savvy he contributes. He's been a role model for just about every defensive lineman to come through since 2004. Do you really think people would begrudge it if he were paid what is much less than he would have made to go on IR in order to be a coach for a year and rehab?

A lot would obviously depend on Wilfork's health. If he's ready to play, then I doubt he'd want to accept such a role. He'll want to play, and to get paid. But Wilfork himself has recently said he doesn't know how he will physically respond, and it may be a while until anyone has a read on the situation.

It was just an off-the-cuff idea, and not essential by any means. It wasn't the key point I was trying to make - that point was that if you cut Wilfork, the difference between cutting him and restructuring him would essential cover the cap hit of someone like Joseph in a zero-sum situation. Given that, I think the prudent thing to do is to cut Wilfork and go after someone like Joseph (by far the best candidate IMHO). If a deal can be struck to not burn bridges, fine. If not, you move on. That's the cost of business of the NFL. There's no room for sentimentality.

Our only difference is with regard to Wilfork. You think that we can sign him for $100K to hang around as a coach and rehab for 2015. Good luck with that. You say that Kraft will make sure that he is "reasonably taken care of" What does that mean? Will he be paid more than other coaches? I think that only ones who makes real money are Belichick and perhaps the coordinators.

I would NOT be shocked if we cut Wilfork and sign a replacement like Joseph.

But. let's be real. If we cut Wilfork, we can add him to list of players who will not be back.

In any case, I think that this situation needs to resolved early in free agency. We need the cap savings from a cut, restructure or extension.

 

[mgteich]

I have only one nitpick.

You say

"If he's ready to play, then I doubt he'd want to accept such a role."

Of course, he won't be ready to play when we are going after another DT on March 11th.

I would say it somewhat differently,

"If he thinks that he has a reasonable chance to be ready to contribute in 2014, even after being on PUP, I doubt if he'd accept such a role"

Why wouldn't Wilfork find a team that wants him and is willing to pay him this year, obviously with an injury clause and incentives in any contract? Certainly, Wilfork MIGHT think that he could get such an offer when he presents himself for training camp.

Of course, Wilfork might like your idea better. He could take another year to rehab. I don't know why he would go through all the work and hours of being a coach, and at the same time working on his rehab. Of course, if he were a coach, he wouldn't be expected to actually work as much as other coaches.

BTW, it takes awhile to become a good coach. I'm not sure that Wilfork is ready for a new career.

I doubt defensive coaches are payed $100K. Coordinators often make in the $1M range, and I suspect you could pay Wilfork in that range without alienating the staff given the situation. Gregg Williams made over $1M/year from 2004-2007 as the DC of the Redskins, and Sean Payton chipped in some of his own salary to up Williams' salary to around $1.3M when he was hired by New Orleans in 2009. Hudson Houck was paid $1M/season by the Cowboys when he was their offensive line coach (he retired in 2012).

Every single member of the Pats' organization knows how much Wilfork has meant to the team, and how much leadership, experience and savvy he contributes. He's been a role model for just about every defensive lineman to come through since 2004. Do you really think people would begrudge it if he were paid what is much less than he would have made to go on IR in order to be a coach for a year and rehab?

A lot would obviously depend on Wilfork's health. If he's ready to play, then I doubt he'd want to accept such a role. He'll want to play, and to get paid. But Wilfork himself has recently said he doesn't know how he will physically respond, and it may be a while until anyone has a read on the situation.

It was just an off-the-cuff idea, and not essential by any means. It wasn't the key point I was trying to make - that point was that if you cut Wilfork, the difference between cutting him and restructuring him would essential cover the cap hit of someone like Joseph in a zero-sum situation. Given that, I think the prudent thing to do is to cut Wilfork and go after someone like Joseph (by far the best candidate IMHO). If a deal can be struck to not burn bridges, fine. If not, you move on. That's the cost of business of the NFL. There's no room for sentimentality.

 

[Fencer]

I think Wilfork winds up getting restructured to a deal with crazy incentives-based variability.

He doesn't actually NEED the money; hence he can negotiate primarily to serve his senses of fairness and pride; hence he can accept the risk of such an arrangement.

 

[mayoclinic]

I have only one nitpick.

You say

"If he's ready to play, then I doubt he'd want to accept such a role."

Of course, he won't be ready to play when we are going after another DT on March 11th.

I would say it somewhat differently,

"If he thinks that he has a reasonable chance to be ready to contribute in 2014, even after being on PUP, I doubt if he'd accept such a role"

Why wouldn't Wilfork find a team that wants him and is willing to pay him this year, obviously with an injury clause and incentives in any contract? Certainly, Wilfork MIGHT think that he could get such an offer when he presents himself for training camp.

Of course, Wilfork might like your idea better. He could take another year to rehab. I don't know why he would go through all the work and hours of being a coach, and at the same time working on his rehab. Of course, if he were a coach, he wouldn't be expected to actually work as much as other coaches.

BTW, it takes awhile to become a good coach. I'm not sure that Wilfork is ready for a new career.

I have no problem with your phrasing, which is what I intended.

I think the main thing is to provide Wilfork with a way of "saving face" which doesn't burn bridges, but also allows the Pats to pursue other options. Fencer has suggested a highly incentive-laden contract which allows him to save face; I don't know if a contract can be devised which lowers Wilfork's cap hit enough to go after someone like Joseph. Wilfork has a lot of pride, but he also is very loyal to the organization, and I don't think he wants to hamstring the organization if he isn't likely to be able to go.

As for the time it takes to become a good coach, you have to start sometime. Wilfork is 32 with a ton of experience. Josh McD was a head coach by the time he was that age. Wilfork has already been acting in a semi-coaching capacity this year, working with the newbies on film review and provide guidance. I'm not sure, but I can't remember a player on IR traveling with the team. That seems exceptional, and may indicate how much Wilfork's input is valued. I believe it was Mike Reiss who indicated that one of the potential impacts of Pepper Johnson leaving the team was that the players loved having a coach who had been a success as a player and wasn't that for removed from his playing experience. Wilfork would provide that in spades.

Obviously my idea is a moonshot, and I don't pretend it's anything else. But with Dante Scarnecchia retiring the Assistant Head Coach role is also open. I could see BB bringing in someone like Jim Schwartz as a defensive assistant and AHC and letting him work with Matt Patricia the way Brian Daboll was brought in to work with Josh McDaniels, providing some new insights and experience. That kind of situation would certainly provide plenty of experience to allow for a younger line coach.

Again, it's a moon shot idea, but I kind of like it. I have no idea if VW would.

 

[Fencer]

I imagine Wilfork's incentives could be structured so that formally they were mainly NTLBE. So a big cap reduction/deferral would seem doable.

 

[Ring 6]

Wilfork is not going to accept a puny contract. He will become a fa and go to the highest bidder if the patriots tried to pull that.

 

[Sicilian]

If Haynesworth kept getting chances to play for teams, Wilfork will most certainly get a decent offer to play somewhere. Look, we all have concerns about him coming back due to age, size, and the nature of the injury. But people are writing him off like it's a done deal. Like he's 45 and just had his leg amputated.

Personally, if there's a chance he can come back and be the player he was the past few years, I WANT him on this team. Draft a kid to learn behind him/back him up if he can't go.

 

[SalemPats]

MODEST PROPOSAL - A CAP NEUTRAL FREE AGENCY
1) Extend Wilfork (save $4M) or restructure (save $3.5M)
2) Cut Sopoaga (save $2M)
3) Cut Adrian Wilson (save $.7M)
3) Sign Talib long-term ($5M first year cap effect)
5) Re-sign Fletcher (costing about $.7M, if that much)
4) Use the other million or a JAG or two.
5) Wait until camp to assess Kelly (and cut him if he cannot compete).
6) Obviously, I don't think that we will re-sign Spikes.

IF WE HAVE THE MONEY
A) We need an upgrade to Gregory (we could simply cut Gregory and sign a replacement)
B) We need a rotational DE. Ninkovich and Jones can't play over 95% of the plays forever.
C) We need a situational pass-rusher as an upgrade over Carter, Bequette and Buchanan.

ASSUMPTION
Wilfork will be on the 2014 roster or on IR.

I would extend Vince and keep Adrian Wilson. I think he can help us next year

 

[mgteich]

The facts are simple. The negotiations should be difficult.

Wilfork is in his last year. The contractual compensation for his services for 2014 is $8M.

I don't see the team paying him $8M and accepting an $8M 2014 cap hit. Do you?

The team could delay a decision until later this year, if they choose. Of course, that would mean that they wouldn't sign a potential free agent replacement. A top draftee would also be less likely. Perhaps, this is the most likely scenario.

If the team does nothing until after the draft, this would also limit Wilfork's options since many teams with a NT need would have already signed free agents, draft picks or used much of their free agent money.

So, one option for the team is to wait (with both Wilfork and Kelly). If the worst happened (cutting both), the team would have $9M in cap room plus whatever little they have left, not unusual for June. If both stayed, the team would have to have enough cap room for them and to pay camp and in-season ccp costs (about $6M).

QUESTION
Do you guys think that the team will wait June to have real negotiations with Wilfork?

Wilfork is not going to accept a puny contract. He will become a fa and go to the highest bidder if the patriots tried to pull that.

 

[SalemPats]

The facts are simple. The negotiations should be difficult.

Wilfork is in his last year. The contractual compensation for his services for 2014 is $8M.

I don't see the team paying him $8M and accepting an $8M 2014 cap hit. Do you?

The team could delay a decision until later this year, if they choose. Of course, that would mean that they wouldn't sign a potential free agent replacement. Perhaps, this is the most likely scenario.

If the team does nothing until after the draft, this would also limit Wilfork's options since many teams with a NT need would have already signed free agents, draft picks or used much of their free agent money.

I think we will have to overpay a bit for Vince. I think people here are not valuing this guy properly. There are so many stats only guys like KONTRA, but Vince's impact on the game is huge (NTs just don't put up stats). Look at run before contact, the double teams he causes because he can create pressure up the middle. Just look at J SMith's value to Aldon Smith. NTs are like O-Lineman, incredibly valuable and hard to find

 

[mgteich]

Wilfork is an all-pro DT coming off an achilles injury. The question is whether he is still worth the money given to the top 5 DT's in the game. For reference, the franchise rate for DT's is about $9M.

I suspect that there will be a difference opinion between the team and Wilfork with regard to what is overpaying.

I think we will have to overpay a bit for Vince. I think people here are not valuing this guy properly. There are so many stats only guys like KONTRA, but Vince's impact on the game is huge (NTs just don't put up stats). Look at run before contact, the double teams he causes because he can create pressure up the middle. Just look at J SMith's value to Aldon Smith. NTs are like O-Lineman, incredibly valuable and hard to find

 

[RI Patriots fan]

Some of you people are living in the past.

Vince Wilfork was not "dominant" at all this past year. In fact, he was bad in some games. Yes, bad.

Restructure???? For a guy who will be 33 years old during the season, coming off a major injury??? That's crazy.

Even more crazy is the idea of letting him rehab a year.....lol. So the 34 year old Wilfork is going to be better than the 32 year Wilfork was this past year?

The guy is significantly overweight......has anyone seen him on the sidelines?

Time to move on....it's over. Take the cap money and use it somewhere else.

 

[Nehalem]

I think we will have to overpay a bit for Vince. I think people here are not valuing this guy properly. There are so many stats only guys like KONTRA, but Vince's impact on the game is huge (NTs just don't put up stats). Look at run before contact, the double teams he causes because he can create pressure up the middle. Just look at J SMith's value to Aldon Smith. NTs are like O-Lineman, incredibly valuable and hard to find

The defense was playing a high level at the beginning of the year even while Wilfork was not playing at a high level.

Given that I think overpaying for a 30+ player coming off a major injury is not a good idea.

 

[JackBauer]

I would extend Vince and keep Adrian Wilson. I think he can help us next year

You think we need a defensive back who can't run? Are you sure he'd be helping us?

 

[resdubwhite]

vince was bad last year?

He only played 3 games. Its hardly a sizeable enough sample to say how his year was going. Who knows. maybe his Achilles was bad all year. Mind you. He's much bigger now. Its an uphill battle for him to be even 60% the player he was.

Therein lies the conundrum.

 

[SalemPats]

The defense was playing a high level at the beginning of the year even while Wilfork was not playing at a high level.

Given that I think overpaying for a 30+ player coming off a major injury is not a good idea.

I thought Wilfork was playing great early in the season, why do you think that he wasn't.

 

[JackBauer]

I thought Wilfork was playing great early in the season, why do you think that he wasn't.

Because anyone with two eyes could see he was a shadow of his former self, whether because of injury or decline. Did you miss him getting owned by Vlad Ducasse?