Belichick's unexpected Bronco's gameplan

[AzPatsFan]

My turn to make a prediction.

It appears that the Pats will not yet have their young split ends back from injury this coming weekend. Yet BB has created a running game Colossus, their last quarter of a season based on four RBs in a RBBC approach, behind an enormous Offensive line, that comes at you in waves.

In 2007 and in particular in 2011 and 2012, we all saw that the Pats couldn't be one dimensional, employing a short over the middle passing game. Good teams would stop such an Offense using a passing game concentrated around little Wes Walker, and his 100+ catches. I agree with that observation. Especially one with, at best, a very marginal Defense.

But these Patriots are not constrained to do that. Using a short passing game in conjunction with a great running game, and a competent Defense is not the same 2011,or 2012 thing, at all. This Defense is no longer marginal; despite the distortions of games 6 -10 when the Pats were adjusting.

Meanwhile, this edition of the rebuilding Pats Defense has accumulated more sacks this season, than any Belichick team has ever fielded. In fact they have more sacks than any but perhaps their very first Superbowl club way back in 1985. Their first five games, the Patriots
Defense yielded 14 ppg. Then the injuries hit; and the Defense fell way off to around 30 ppg.

It wasn't until the last four games of the season, that they had fully adjusted, found and trained Siliga, Jones and Velano and yielded, 20 ppg. Rookies and UDFAs and FAs had been found and had played half a season together, and were finally playing well. BB for GMOY!

Very importantly they found four healthy, and competent, CBs. Talib, Dennard, Arrington and Ryan. They found or developed two or three good or competent Safeties in McCourty, Gregory and Harmon. Top draft pick, Jamie Collins recently emerged as the TE covering OLB they have long sought.

The situation facing the Patriots is much rather like the Patriots with small Troy Brown, Deon Branch and David Patten, with Corey Dilllon hammering the line in the SB years, then any teams since then.

I predict that Bill Belichick will pull an old tried and true, SB years, balanced gameplan; and destroy the Broncs and then the youthful, inexperienced, warm weather, pretenders from the Senior Conference, in the New Jersey snowbowl. :snob:

BB will combine the features of those gameplans with a balanced, half run, half short pass, high percentage, game plan, that offers simply too many targets to defend.

 

[Patstopia]

I think that this team has a secondary that can slow Manning down. Between that and the run game and Manning's playoff chokes. They have this game covered pretty well! Of course I will still have a knot in my gut the whole week.

 

[Archeryaddict12]

I think that this team has a secondary that can slow Manning down. Between that and the run game and Manning's playoff chokes. They have this game covered pretty well! Of course I will still have a knot in my gut the whole week.

So far I haven't gotten the knot yet.

 

[Ring 6]

My turn to make a prediction.

It appears that the Pats will not yet have their young split ends back from injury this coming weekend. Yet BB has created a running game Colossus, their last quarter of a season based on four RBs in a RBBC approach, behind an enormous Offensive line, that comes at you in waves.

In 2007 and in particular in 2011 and 2012, we all saw that the Pats couldn't be one dimensional, employing a short over the middle passing game. Good teams would stop such an Offense using a passing game concentrated around little Wes Walker, and his 100+ catches. I agree with that observation. Especially one with, at best, a very marginal Defense.

But these Patriots are not constrained to do that. Using a short passing game in conjunction with a great running game, and a competent Defense is not the same 2011,or 2012 thing, at all. This Defense is no longer marginal; despite the distortions of games 6 -10 when the Pats were adjusting.

Meanwhile, this edition of the rebuilding Pats Defense has accumulated more sacks this season, than any Belichick team has ever fielded. In fact they have more sacks than any but perhaps their very first Superbowl club way back in 1985. Their first five games, the Patriots
Defense yielded 14 ppg. Then the injuries hit; and the Defense fell way off to around 30 ppg.

It wasn't until the last four games of the season, that they had fully adjusted, found and trained Siliga, Jones and Velano and yielded, 20 ppg. Rookies and UDFAs and FAs had been found and had played half a season together, and were finally playing well. BB for GMOY!

Very importantly they found four healthy, and competent, CBs. Talib, Dennard, Arrington and Ryan. They found or developed two or three good or competent Safeties in McCourty, Gregory and Harmon. Top draft pick, Jamie Collins recently emerged as the TE covering OLB they have long sought.

The situation facing the Patriots is much rather like the Patriots with small Troy Brown, Deon Branch and David Patten, with Corey Dilllon hammering the line in the SB years, then any teams since then.

I predict that Bill Belichick will pull an old tried and true, SB years, balanced gameplan; and destroy the Broncs and then the youthful, inexperienced, warm weather, pretenders from the Senior Conference, in the New Jersey snowbowl. :snob:

BB will combine the features of those gameplans with a balanced, half run, half short pass, high percentage, game plan, that offers simply too many targets to defend.

I think we use 'balance' to attack weaknesses, break tendencies, expose the weakest areas of the D and take whatever they give us. I think that turns into throwing a lot early, and running a lot once we have a lead.
There are plenty of yards and points to be made in the passing game.
I do not want to pound the run stubbornly.
Outside of a 73 and a 30 yard run by Blount we were 44 rushes for 131 yards. Takeaways and timely success in the passing game allowed us to keep pounding but the run game was not consistently great, gaining 3 ypc plus the 2 long runs.
Turning our offense into a mediocre running game plus 2 long runs won't be good unless we are playing from ahead.

 

[Claremonster]

They can use Jamie Collins as a goal line tight end like they used Vrable.

 

[hwc]

Outside of a 73 and a 30 yard run by Blount we were 44 rushes for 131 yards. Takeaways and timely success in the passing game allowed us to keep pounding but the run game was not consistently great, gaining 3 ypc plus the 2 long runs.

IMO, any time a team rushes for 6 TDs in a game, the running game is definitely in the consistently great column....

In fact, I would be hard-pressed to think of how you could have more production from the running backs than the Pats have gotten the last two games...

 

[JR4]

I think we use 'balance' to attack weaknesses, break tendencies, expose the weakest areas of the D and take whatever they give us. I think that turns into throwing a lot early, and running a lot once we have a lead.
There are plenty of yards and points to be made in the passing game.
I do not want to pound the run stubbornly.
Outside of a 73 and a 30 yard run by Blount we were 44 rushes for 131 yards. Takeaways and timely success in the passing game allowed us to keep pounding but the run game was not consistently great, gaining 3 ypc plus the 2 long runs.
Turning our offense into a mediocre running game plus 2 long runs won't be good unless we are playing from ahead.

I wonder if you take away the two largest runs in a game how many
good run offenses would sink to 3.x yds/carry average?

For example, this past weekend the headlines were
"Marshawn Lynch goes Beast Mode"
but if you take away his two longest runs
his other 26 runs only averaged 3.5 yds/carry.
To get the big runs you have to run. Blount gives PATS a very good
shot at breaking loose and getting those game changing runs.

 

[JMC00]

It appears that the Pats will not yet have their young split ends back from injury this coming weekend

Can you link me to the injury report that says both are either doubtful or out for this game?

 

[SacPete1]

The goal line rushes were great tough minded runs and the total yardage on the ground was impressive but late in the 3rd quarter I was getting concerned that we weren't gaining the 4-5 yarders consistently and I didn't want to see us in 3rd and long. It all worked out obviously and there is no denying the running game is a strength.
That being said, AndyJohnson is completely right. There are passing yards to be made against the Broncos and a balanced offense is never a bad thing.
Luckily, we really don't have a conservative or stubborn coach and I fully expect to see more passes mixed in nicely with the runs.
With Harris out and Rogers-Cromartie likely on Edelman, time for Amendola to step up against Jammer.

 

[Ring 6]

I wonder if you take away the two largest runs in a game how many
good run offenses would sink to 3.x yds/carry average?

For example, this past weekend the headlines were
"Marshawn Lynch goes Beast Mode"
but if you take away his two longest runs
his other 26 runs only averaged 3.5 yds/carry.
To get the big runs you have to run. Blount gives PATS a very good
shot at breaking loose and getting those game changing runs.

I don't disagree. I'm not diminishing how great our running game was, but pointing out a run heavy game plan is a tough way to put up a lot of points without turnovers or big plays in the passing game.

The game changing runs, if you have 2 of them thats a lot, are not enough to control a game and stubbornly running to hope for a long run is not a good plan unless you are out in front.

 

[Ring 6]

IMO, any time a team rushes for 6 TDs in a game, the running game is definitely in the consistently great column....

In fact, I would be hard-pressed to think of how you could have more production from the running backs than the Pats have gotten the last two games...

I guess we are disagreeing on consistently.
The running game made many great plays, but there were a lot of 3 yard or fewer runs too.
I'm speaking more to the chance to win a game on the ground without big pass plays or takeaways, not criticizing the run game Saturday.

 

[hwc]

The running game made many great plays, but there were a lot of 3 yard or fewer runs too.

Of course. That's the way football works. It's like saying, "sure, we threw for 400 yards and 6 TDs, but the passing game wasn't that consistent because we had some incompletes and some passes that only gained 3 yards..."

Even then it's a little misleading. Some of the most successful runs -- converting a 3rd and short or punching it across the goal line -- are only designed to gain a yard or two. I would argue that converting those situations with a power running game are probably the most advantageous plays in football. A defense that can't stop those short runs is in big, big, big trouble.

 

[hwc]

I'm not diminishing how great our running game was, but pointing out a run heavy game plan is a tough way to put up a lot of points without turnovers or big plays in the passing game.

A run heavy game plan, however, is a good way to limit the opportunities for the Greatest Offense Ever In the History of the Universe (tm) to put points on the board....

 

[Fencer]

They can use Jamie Collins as a goal line tight end like they used Vrable.

I think they'd use Ninkovich first. Why? Because what made Vrabel so good at TE was his ability to get off a jam, which was connected with his ability to commit jams against TEs on defense. And Ninkovich is, I think, our current star at that.

But in future years? Surely a possibility.

 

[letekro]

A run heavy game plan, however, is a good way to limit the opportunities for the Greatest Offense Ever In the History of the Universe (tm) to put points on the board....

only if you run successfully....Chargers didn't last week, and their TOP was around 24 minutes. Of course, I have to think we can run better with our guys than the Chargers did with Woodhead and 25% of Ryan Matthews

 

[Ring 6]

A run heavy game plan, however, is a good way to limit the opportunities for the Greatest Offense Ever In the History of the Universe (tm) to put points on the board....

Not if you aren't converting first downs and are punting.
Thats my point. It is ridiculously hard to put together consistent long drives with a high run/pass ratio. You have to throw to get yards in chunks.
Keeping the other offense off the field does me no good if it isn't ending in points.
A 1 minute TD drive is 1000 times better than a 7 minute drive with no points.
EDIT: Unless you are running out the clock with a safe lead.

 

[Christian]

I honestly have no idea what Belichick's going to draw up in terms of game plan for this one.

I do suspect that he won't do the same thing as last time. Manning is very difficult to game plan for. The good news is that the Pats secondary is the best we've seen in some time. We've got good, physical corners to match up with their big WRs. Julius Thomas is the one matchup that scares me, and although Welker was relatively quiet against us last time, he is still a major threat and is very difficult to cover.

I suspect that they'll try to pound it at us early. Hopefully we can pick Manning off early and get some momentum.

I think on offense we will try to run it, but I think that's going to be their main focus. I wouldn't be surprised if they just stack the box and dare us to throw it thinking that they can cover the likes of Edelman and Amendola 1 on 1 or strictly with their secondary.

Vereen has been relatively quiet the last couple weeks. Maybe they work him into the game plan some more. I certainly hope so. I also really hope we can get Dobson back. He was looking great before the injury. He could be a weapon. We're going to need everything to win this one folks.

 

[Ring 6]

only if you run successfully....Chargers didn't last week, and their TOP was around 24 minutes. Of course, I have to think we can run better with our guys than the Chargers did with Woodhead and 25% of Ryan Matthews

Stubbornly running on 1st and 2nd down to only throw on 3rd down especially vs a weak pass D is a sure recipe for disaster, essentially giving the defense ever advantage to use their strength and cover their weakness.
Of course the braintrust in Foxboro is very aware.

 

[BradyBranch39]

Sorry, but I don't want any linebacker hands in on our GL plays. It's like asking for tipped ball Brady INTs.

 

[Ring 6]

I honestly have no idea what Belichick's going to draw up in terms of game plan for this one.

I do suspect that he won't do the same thing as last time. Manning is very difficult to game plan for. The good news is that the Pats secondary is the best we've seen in some time. We've got good, physical corners to match up with their big WRs. Julius Thomas is the one matchup that scares me, and although Welker was relatively quiet against us last time, he is still a major threat and is very difficult to cover.

I suspect that they'll try to pound it at us early. Hopefully we can pick Manning off early and get some momentum.

I think on offense we will try to run it, but I think that's going to be their main focus. I wouldn't be surprised if they just stack the box and dare us to throw it thinking that they can cover the likes of Edelman and Amendola 1 on 1 or strictly with their secondary.

Vereen has been relatively quiet the last couple weeks. Maybe they work him into the game plan some more. I certainly hope so. I also really hope we can get Dobson back. He was looking great before the injury. He could be a weapon. We're going to need everything to win this one folks.

I think we will come out similarly on D to last game. BB got in Mannings head by daring him to run, and doing the same thing (overcommitting to the pass) may very well cause his ego to try to throw into it.
Offensively if they bring 8 into the box, its game over. They have no one who can cover.