Patriots finish with the 9th ranked defense in the NFL

[patsfanincleveland]

Stats shmats. I use the naked eye test and this D has been inconsistent this year. The injuries were irksome and not having McCourty vs. the Bills hurt. Question is can this D stop the other team on a crucial 3rd down play. Something they've been unable to do recently. I think Jones/Ninko have been very good but the rest of the pass D has been well...inconsistent.

I am curious how the Pats fare vs. Cincy with their WRs, TEs and Bernard - all capable pass catchers. But in the first meeting it was a defensive struggle.

Anyway to make a long story short this is NOT a dominant D of the 2003-2005 years but it may be good enough to get them a ring. I am hopeful that Talib, McCourty, Gregory and Denard are healthy for the playoffs, allowing the Pats to blitz more and play one on one coverage at times.

That's rich

The "naked eye" test used by........the blind guy.

 

[Double TE]

That's rich

The "naked eye" test used by........the blind guy.

Thats your opinion. One man's music is another man's noise.

 

[patsfan-1982]

I would not say they are the 85 bears but even with the injuries they are better then they have been over the last 3 years or so, the real test comes in two weeks can they get key stops in the playoffs that's all I care about

 

[Double TE]

Agreed - 100%

Siliga has been very effective since arriving.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Most mediots prefer to suppress the important data because it runs counter to their agenda. I mean, why let facts get in the way of their storyline, eh? After all, if you ask them, their job isn't to actually report facts, but to create public opinion, to tell the people what is important. It's why the news departments have been under the control of the entertainment departments at all the major media for decades.

But to get back on track, the Patriots are perfectly willing to allow some movement between the 20's. They'll let you run up and down the field all day. Where they become stingy is in the red zone, and points allowed is a much better indicator of a defense's ability than yards allowed.

Even then, points allowed should also be broken into 3 sections to correspond with offensive, defensive and special teams scores. To my way of thinking, a true defensive rating would only count scores from the opponent's offense.

YMMV, but that's how I see things

Even that wouldn't totally get to the heart of the matter, since an interception that was returned to the 1 then punched in would count against the D, versus a pick-six counting against the offense.

If you really want to account for the offense's contribution when measuring a defense, you'd probably have to develop some comprehensive, advanced metric that included time of possession, starting field position, and game situation (point differential, time in game) for drives where points were surrendered. On top of that you'd probably want to adjust for strength of opponent, as well. Football Outsiders' DVOA statistic tackles a lot of this stuff, and FWIW they ranked the Patriots 24th, and 21st if you don't adjust for strength of opponent.

FWIW, the offense ranked #2 in weighted DVOA, behind Denver by a fairly slim margin (26.2% to 27.1%). That doesn't seem right at all, very weird.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Agreed - 100%

Siliga has been very effective since arriving.

I'm really intrigued to see if the Pats run a lot of 3-4 next year with a Siliga-Wilfork-Kelly line. Would probably depend a lot on Chandler Jones' ability to play the old the McGinest role, but if he can then I could see that being a great fit for Hightower.

 

[YearbookCurfew]

Pats have a top 10 D and we're ahead of the Ravens! I'm so proud of our defense.

 

[Wheelman]

While I agree the third down defense has been a concern this year, I don't know if today is the day to complain about it. If 'recently' were to mean the last 24 hours, one would find the Patriots were as good as any team on those crucial plays: the defense limited the opposition to 4-16 conversions on third and fourth down yesterday.

Just to add to this. The patriots have the #1 4th down defense(4 for 21, 19%)

21 was also the 2nd most 4th down attempts against a team this season.(49ers, 1st with 23 attempts against)

 

[Fencer]

A couple of thoughts re numbers like this in general:

1. Possession count matters, as increasing total possessions increases both offensive and defensive point totals.

Factors affecting possession count include plays/drive, run/pass ratio, and use of the hurry-up.

I have no intuition as to where the Pats rank in possession count.

2. Field position matters; TOs that give great field position to the opposing offense increase the defensive point count. Ditto kick/punt returns. But returns for scores of course work in the other direction.