Patriots biggest draft blunder in the last 5 years?

[Brady6]

Hands down. The worst pick of this or any era was Aaron Hernandez - possibly by any team in the history of the NFL.

Hernandez hasn’t even been found guilty yet, these players below all were convicted of their crimes and served time.

Barret Robbins
Michael Vick
Lawrence Phillips
Rae Carruth
Tommy Kane
Robert Rozier
Dwayne Goodrich
Javon Belcher
Ryan Leaf

No player in the history of the New England Patriots has so embarrassed this franchise, and put his teammates, coaches and owners in as difficult a position of having to overcome the distractions and questions associated with his decision to commit murder.

You don’t know that he committed anything, you think he did based upon things you’ve read and the case presented by the DA, his team has not disputed or presented their case yet. I would suggest you hold off that conclusion until you hear all the facts.

Every other team took a pass on this guy three times, and 17 teams passed a fourth time before the Patriots took him. Why? Because alarm bells went off that this multi-talented player was trouble.

Hernandez was the 113 pick in the NFL draft, there were 255 picks taken in the 2010 draft which means Hernandez was selected in the first 45% of the draft. 55% of the draft remained and you don’t know if every team would pass on him.

Give me a break. 25 years from now people will be talking about what a mistake Aaron Hernandez was as a draft pick, as a player, as a person. People will be talking about him long after Ras I Dowling and guys like Chad Jackson, Adrian Klemm, and Hart Lee Dykes are long forgotten.

What you’re overlooking is that Hernandez the draft pick was a success, the mistake was giving him the contract extension. If this was a thread that asked the question who was the worst contract extension given out in the last 5 years then you’d have a strong and likely winning case here but the draft pick aspect of Hernandez did not hurt us in anyway, it only benefited us.

The Aaron Hernandez debacle is long from over with multiple murder trials in our future. He is, without a doubt, the worst pick ever.

He has been charged with 1 count of murder, where are the remainders of these trials going to come from?

 

[BritPat]

And your reaction to the Harmon pick?

He'll tell you in about 3 seasons.

 

[patsfanincleveland]

Isn't that the topic of this thread?

Besides, knowing that Tavon Wilson was a mind-numbingly horrible pick isn't hindsight,
as many of us in the draft forum already knew the microsecond that pick was made.

Good to see the resident "broken clock" checking in.

Even on the rare instance of being "right".....there is still a complete lack of brains to understand what was going on.

 

[kennyb]

Do we know if Aaron Hernandez killed Odin Lloyd? People think he did but until we have a trial we do not know the facts of the case other than what has been said at his arraignment and bail hearing.

I can tell you this if they had a solid case against Hernandez they wouldn’t be arresting everyone in his family and friend circle including summoning Miami Dolphins players, they would not be trying to make his child an orphan by attempting to flip the fiancé, they would be proceeding with the case against Hernandez. I am not suggesting that I think he is not guilty but I don’t know what the facts of the case are, as of right now he is guilty of keeping bad company, carrying illegal weapons around his own house, poor etiquette when texting, and renting a lot of cars at enterprise.

I would say Hernandez from what I have read about the case I and I have followed it very, very closely Hernandez has about a 75% chance of being found not guilty on the murder charge and if he is I can assure you he will be in the NFL on a roster within weeks of the verdict being reached or his release for any convictions on the weapons charges.

You "assure me"? NFL will sign hernandez about as quickly as advertisers signed oj after he was aquitted. As for finding him not guilty, they don't have to prove who pulled the trigger iirc. He is toast. Gun and obstruction charges alone
should have him in jail for years even if he were to be acquitted.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

BTW, the "authorities" are having a tough time getting witnessess to testify against him, don't be shocked if he walks..... and then see who signs him.

Except that (A) it's going to be much harder to skate on the weapons charges than the murder charge, (B) they can include lesser charges, and (C) the weapons charges carry mandatory minimums.

Even if he skates on the murder charge, it's unlikely he's going to get out scot free.

 

[BradyBranch39]

It's not even close. Ras I Dowling. An incredibly valuable spot - first pick of day two, so tons of teams calling, all night to decide - and a bunching of prospects that played positions of need (pass rushers, included) and were said to be of similar draft board grades. A horrible, totally unjustifiable blunder by BB, and I say that as a massive Belichick apologist. Ras I Dowling is a huge miss that has affected, and will affect, this team negatively for years.

If this is #1, Tavon Wilson is 1A.

 

[lamafist]

How many third round picks are perfect?

And to the point of this thread, how many draft picks are perfect? Every team has their share of busts. I've yet to see any evidence that the Patriots have more than the average.

Exactly. Every draft pick is a gamble, and outside of the top half of the 1st round, the "bust rate" at every round & pick# goes from 3 to 1 and rapidly declines from there. A lot of the players being mentioned here are draft "disappointments" not "blunders."

Not only is it pretty much impossible to project with any real accuracy how a player's performance in college will translate to the pro level, but it's hardly the case that a players' future level of success is predetermined at the moment he's drafted. There are countless of contributing factors to players' success in the NFL that occur after he's drafted, during his early time with the team, and many of them are pretty much random.

The one true draft "blunder" that I can think of is picking Laurence Maroney with the 21st pick in the first round. The risk-benefit situation just wasn't worth it. I think by the 2006 draft, it should already have been clear to anyone not fooled by decades-old NFL conventional wisdom that no running back is worth a first round pick. The position has become largely fungible in today's NFL, the draft success rate at the position doesn't tail off as rapidly as any of the others, and even when you do end up with a truly stand-out running back, the positive effect on the offense isn't nearly as significant as a stand out quarterback, receiver or even tackle.

 

[Brady6]

You "assure me"? NFL will sign hernandez about as quickly as advertisers signed oj after he was aquitted. As for finding him not guilty, they don't have to prove who pulled the trigger iirc. He is toast. Gun and obstruction charges alone
should have him in jail for years even if he were to be acquitted.

He cannot be charged with obstruction of justice on a case he is the main defendant in so that's not a concern, the weapons charges if he found guilty would probably put him away for a max or 5 years as a first time offender. Since his getting credit for time served he would be out by 28 years old with limited miles on his body for a football player. As far as being signed by an NFL and being fit for advertising as in OJ's case there is a huge difference.

 

[jsull87]

1st... I love the pts drafting record. But I think it's still a good process to look through and see where mistakes were made (even tho I would argue we make less than other teams).

When you talk about blunders you cant go into the 3rd round e.t.c as when it comes to the lower picks it's a bit of a crap shoot.

The names that come to mind as misses are:

Cunningham - Alternative - Dunlap
T Wilson
Ras-I Dowling - Alternative - In their defense I think tis was a huge blunder but if they were looking at secondary help... the cupboard was pretty bare that draft.
Brace - Alternative - Fili Moala / Henry Melton
Butler - Alternative - Jaryus Byrd
Wheatley - Alternative - Terrel Thomas
C Jackson - Alternative - G Jennings


Personally I think the one that would have the greatest effect on this team to date would be Ras - I but only if we didn't go secondary and wnt with a dif position.

This is a good exercise but it would just change our team completely if any of thes epicks were dfferent. E.G if we pick Byrd I would bet we wouldn't have Talib on our team now with McCourty at FS. Would that be better? who knows

 

[Brady6]

Except that (A) it's going to be much harder to skate on the weapons charges than the murder charge, (B) they can include lesser charges, and (C) the weapons charges carry mandatory minimums.

Even if he skates on the murder charge, it's unlikely he's going to get out scot free.

The weapons would not put him away for any more than 5 years.

The defense is most likely going to attempt to get the security footage thrown out if they're able to they have nothing to connect him to the weapons. The photos will be hard to prove exactly what kind of gun real or not in a dark room on a security camera, remember it's beyond a reasonable doubt.

 

[Brady6]

Ras-I Dowling - Alternative - In their defense I think tis was a huge blunder but if they were looking at secondary help... the cupboard was pretty bare that draft.

Aaron Williams went with the next pick and Richard Sherman went 2 rounds later.

 

[JarOfMayo51]

Exactly. Every draft pick is a gamble, and outside of the top half of the 1st round, the "bust rate" at every round & pick# goes from 3 to 1 and rapidly declines from there. A lot of the players being mentioned here are draft "disappointments" not "blunders."

Not only is it pretty much impossible to project with any real accuracy how a player's performance in college will translate to the pro level, but it's hardly the case that a players' future level of success is predetermined at the moment he's drafted. There are countless of contributing factors to players' success in the NFL that occur after he's drafted, during his early time with the team, and many of them are pretty much random.

The one true draft "blunder" that I can think of is picking Laurence Maroney with the 21st pick in the first round. The risk-benefit situation just wasn't worth it. I think by the 2006 draft, it should already have been clear to anyone not fooled by decades-old NFL conventional wisdom that no running back is worth a first round pick. The position has become largely fungible in today's NFL, the draft success rate at the position doesn't tail off as rapidly as any of the others, and even when you do end up with a truly stand-out running back, the positive effect on the offense isn't nearly as significant as a stand out quarterback, receiver or even tackle.

Great post! There are no crystal balls that can predict what will be created out of a players potential.

 

[Bobsyouruncle]

2013 2 52 Jamie Collins OLB
2013 2 59 Aaron Dobson WR
2013 3 83 Logan Ryan CB
2013 3 91 Duron Harmon S
2013 4 102 Josh Boyce WR
2013 7 226 Michael Buchanan DE
2013 7 235 Steve Beauharnais ILB

2012 1 21 Chandler Jones DE
2012 1 25 Dont'a Hightower ILB
2012 2 48 Tavon Wilson FS
2012 3 90 Jake Bequette DE
2012 6 197 Nate Ebner DB
2012 7 224 Alfonzo Dennard CB
2012 7 235 Jeremy Ebert WR

2011 1 17 Nate Solder OL
2011 2 33 Ras-I Dowling DB
2011 2 56 Shane Vereen RB
2011 3 73 Stevan Ridley. RB
2011 3 74 Ryan Mallett QB
2011 5 138 Marcus Cannon OL
2011 5 159 Lee Smith TE
2011 6 194 Markell Carter LB
2011 7 219 Malcolm Williams DB

2010 1 27 Devin McCourty DB
2010 2 42 Rob Gronkowski TE
2010 2 53 Jermaine Cunningham LB
2010 2 62 Brandon Spikes LB
2010 3 90 Taylor Price WR
2010 4 113 Aaron Hernandez TE
2010 5 150 Zoltan Mesko P
2010 6 205 Ted Larsen C
2010 7 208 Thomas Welch T
2010 7 247 Brandon Deaderick DE
2010 7 248 Kade Weston DT
2010 7 250 Zac Robinson QB

2009 2 34 Patrick Chung DB
2009 2 40 Ron Brace DT
2009 2 41 Darius Butler DB
2009 2 58 Sebastian Vollmer T
2009 3 83 Brandon Tate WR
2009 3 97 Tyrone McKenzie LB
2009 4 123 Rich Ohrnberger G
2009 5 170 George Bussey G
2009 6 198 Jake Ingram LS
2009 6 207 Myron Pryor DT
2009 7 232 Julian Edelman WR
2009 7 234 Darryl Richard DT

 

[BritPat]

Aaron Williams went with the next pick and Richard Sherman went 2 rounds later.

So, that's Aaron Williams, who the Bills had no faith in and ended up picking another cornerback in the first round the year after to replace him with, and who is now playing Safety, and a player that every one of the 32 teams passed over at least four times, who would have gone in the top 10 had they realised how good he would be.

Also, why haven't you mentioned Marcus Gilchrist, Brandon Harris, Chris 'toasted in the SB' Culliver, DeMarcus Van Dyke, Johnny Patrick, Shareece Wright, Curtis Marsh, Curtis Brown, Brandon Hogan, Da'Norris Searcy, Chimdi Chekwa, Jalil Brown, Rashad Carmichael, Cortez Allen, Davon House, Buster Skrine, Brandon Burton, Josh Thomas or Rod Isaac?

That's the list of CB's taken between Williams and Sherman. That's a whole lot of sucktitude too. But hey, EVERYONE drafts better than the Pats, right?

 

[Bobsyouruncle]

Think it's got to be Dowling. As much as people may dislike Wilson he was more productive at a lower pick. I think the fact that their worst pick is a second rounder shows a pretty good draft record.

 

[Kdo5]

It's not even close. Ras I Dowling. An incredibly valuable spot - first pick of day two, so tons of teams calling, all night to decide - and a bunching of prospects that played positions of need (pass rushers, included) and were said to be of similar draft board grades. A horrible, totally unjustifiable blunder by BB, and I say that as a massive Belichick apologist. Ras I Dowling is a huge miss that has affected, and will affect, this team negatively for years.

So true. Tavon Wilson was bad but at least he got a few INT's and actually saw the field.

 

[Brady6]

So, that's Aaron Williams, who the Bills had no faith in and ended up picking another cornerback in the first round the year after to replace him with, and who is now playing Safety, and a player that every one of the 32 teams passed over at least four times, who would have gone in the top 10 had they realised how good he would be.

Also, why haven't you mentioned Marcus Gilchrist, Brandon Harris, Chris 'toasted in the SB' Culliver, DeMarcus Van Dyke, Johnny Patrick, Shareece Wright, Curtis Marsh, Curtis Brown, Brandon Hogan, Da'Norris Searcy, Chimdi Chekwa, Jalil Brown, Rashad Carmichael, Cortez Allen, Davon House, Buster Skrine, Brandon Burton, Josh Thomas or Rod Isaac?

That's the list of CB's taken between Williams and Sherman. That's a whole lot of sucktitude too. But hey, EVERYONE drafts better than the Pats, right?

Essentially the story you just told about Williams is a spitting image of the story most would tell about McCourty, either way we’d have been better off with Williams. Hindsight is always 20/20 however so it doesn’t really matter. How bad the rest of the DBs were that year doesn’t change Dowling being a horrific selection at 33rd overall. In my opinion what most do not connect but I do is the failure of Dowling also cost us our 4th round pick this season and $5.5 million against our 2013 cap because had Dowling worked out and developed into the player he was drafted with hope of becoming we would not have had to trade for Talib and resign him in the offseason.

Not everyone drafts better than the patriots, actually they do a great job drafting but the concept of the thread was to pick the player who I considered to be the worst selection in the past 5 years, my answer was Dowling. I am participating in the thread, and I am not going to troll in here like a clown and suggest Belichick has made no draft blunders in the last 5 years and every pick way perfect. My desire to be “SUPER FAN” is not that strong that I am going to become delusional.

 

[fumbrunner]

Patriots needed a CB and after 3 were picked in the first round, there wasnt a whole lot left. Sure Sherman was a diamond in the rough, but given Ras-I's measurables the pick was justifiable. Of course, with the exception of his injury history.

Guys like that are a risk. some work out (Gronk) others don't (Ras-I)

2011 NFL Draft Results by Position - Cornerbacks - ESPN

 

[Snake Eyes]

Patriots needed a CB and after 3 were picked in the first round, there wasnt a whole lot left. Sure Sherman was a diamond in the rough, but given Ras-I's measurables the pick was justifiable. Of course, with the exception of his injury history.

Guys like that are a risk. some work out (Gronk) others don't (Ras-I)

2011 NFL Draft Results by Position - Cornerbacks - ESPN

Dowling had an injury history longer than my arm, Gronk hadn't been nearly as damaged.

 

[Brady6]

Patriots needed a CB and after 3 were picked in the first round, there wasnt a whole lot left. Sure Sherman was a diamond in the rough, but given Ras-I's measurables the pick was justifiable. Of course, with the exception of his injury history.

Guys like that are a risk. some work out (Gronk) others don't (Ras-I)

2011 NFL Draft Results by Position - Cornerbacks - ESPN

I think it’s a huge misconception that Rob Gronkowski and Ras-I Dowling were these high risk, high reward type players. The fact is both players were taken exactly where they were projected to go. Gronkowski sat out his junior year but was ranked as the 2nd best tight prospect in his class, he was the second tight end selected. Dowling was ranked as the 5th cornerback redraft where we took him made him the 4th but the player projected as the 4th Williams was taken with the 34th pick by the Bills.

Ras-I was not more talented than Patrick Peterson, Prince Amukamara or Jimmy Smith so even if he was healthy throughout college. The only tight end taken ahead of Gronkowski was Jermaine Gresham who also missed the entire 2009 college season due to a knee injury; he was taken ahead of Gronkowski because he had better metrics during his workout so teams considered him to be more talented.

I am not trying to argue your point because what you’re saying is true the high risk, high reward picks sometimes work out and sometimes they don’t, I just disagree that these 2 players fall into that category, I think they were both drafted where their talent and production justified at the time of the draft and Gronkowski was a great pick and Dowling was a bad pick with risk having nothing to do with it. Also every player carries some level of risk. If you wanted to look at a pick that was high risk, high reward you’d look at Da'Quan Bowers who teams were scared off from due to his knees, they Bucs took him at 51 and if he was the player that some projected as the #1 pick overall leading up to the draft that would have been a huge reward, other players would be Janoris Jenkins or Bruce Irvin, those are high risk high reward players. Theses picks (Gronk/Dowling) they were just the right pick at the right time and unfortunately the Dowling one didn’t pan out, I don’t think Bill overdrafted Dowling or underdrafted Gronkowski I think sometimes picks do what you expect and other times they don’t.

For the record I am not giving you a hard time, I actually have grown to really enjoy your posts and feel we have an understanding that we disagree about some things but it is not personal it is just preference or perspective of the game. So I hope you receive this well and do not view it as disparaging.