Overtime Decision to kick off and take wind, rather than receive and go on offense

[SB39]

By the way, in light of these overtime rules, did anyone else find this postgame quote by Manning to be pretty funny?:



Uhh... you got the ball twice in overtime, Peyton, including the opening drive. You just couldn't do **** with it.

I heard that quote and I absolutely couldn't believe my ears. Guy had 3 chances to win the game if you include the 1 near the end of regulation.

 

[BradyFTW!]

I thought the more controversial decision was when BB chose to accept the penalty in OT to make it 3rd and 14 versus 4th and 1. He would have taken plenty of heat if Peyton would have converted on 3rd down.

Moreno was running for something like 6 YPC, so they probably would have gone for it and probably would have converted. Taking the penalty was the right call.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

This is one of the tougher decisions IMO. There's obvious pros to getting the ball first but unless it's a game like the Carolina game last Monday, I would probably lean towards deferring most of the time.

Even without a major wind effect, you know exactly what you need on drive 2 assuming the other team doesn't score 7. If the other team gets a FG on drive one, you are in 4 down territory the entire field which actually makes things quite easier for your offense and harder on the opponent's defense. Again it comes down to how the game is going, in last night's game it was obviously the correct call.

 

[SVN]

I just rewatched the overtime. To be honest, we played some bad offense and the defense barely held. Our offense almost gave up the game in overtime with some stupid drives .
Moreno was killing us and also manning missed a trick with not trying enough deep passes even against the wind. Talib made a great play on thomas but with talib out manning didnt go after arrington. The penalty was big for but they were moving the much more effectively and all it wouldve taken is one broken run or play to end it. But when you start from 24-0, you need some breaks we got them. Frankly manning didnt make many bad throws against the wind and all. He just didnt throw more , probably chickened out.... I dont think the wind effected how the broncos played in overtime except the decision to kick the FG or punt.

 

[Triumph]

Mad props to BB for taking the wind by ESPN

Also, Mannings actual cold weather record. These 2 team will meet again.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | ESPN: Bill Belichick Makes It Okay To Take the Wind

Click on the ESPN headline at the top for a short blurb.

 

[Fencer]

Re: Mad props to BB for taking the wind by ESPN

Interesting. Scott Kasmar is an incredibly annoying Brady hater/Manning ballwasher, at least when he posts on KFFL under "Still Life", "Still Swinging" and similar user names.

One of his knocks on Brady is that Brady rarely stages comebacks.

 

[patman12]

Re: Mad props to BB for taking the wind by ESPN

Interesting. Scott Kasmar is an incredibly annoying Brady hater/Manning ballwasher, at least when he posts on KFFL under "Still Life", "Still Swinging" and similar user names.

One of his knocks on Brady is that Brady rarely stages comebacks.

Writing that had to be like nails on a chalkboard for Still.

 

[Uncle Rico]

Re: Mad props to BB for taking the wind by ESPN

Looks good, I'll read it all later.

One thing at a glance on the "cold weather" chart -- might be just me, but I don't consider "40 and under" to be the breakpoint for a "cold" game. Gotta be at least freezing or lower. Looking quickly at Manning's passer rating in that chart, it's fairly clear that under 32 is much worse for him than 33-40.

 

[Nikolai]

Re: Mad props to BB for taking the wind by ESPN

Looks good, I'll read it all later.

One thing at a glance on the "cold weather" chart -- might be just me, but I don't consider "40 and under" to be the breakpoint for a "cold" game. Gotta be at least freezing or lower. Looking quickly at Manning's passer rating in that chart, it's fairly clear that under 32 is much worse for him than 33-40.

Agreed. 40F is an arbitrary number, perhaps selected to cherry pick some decent games in the 33F-40F range? At least 32F is quantifiable as the freezing point of water.

 

[Galeb]

Re: Mad props to BB for taking the wind by ESPN

Agreed. 40F is an arbitrary number, perhaps selected to cherry pick some decent games in the 33F-40F range? At least 32F is quantifiable as the freezing point of water.

Why does the feezing point always get the love? 32 F is also the melting point.

 

[Triumph]

Re: Mad props to BB for taking the wind by ESPN

Agreed. 40F is an arbitrary number, perhaps selected to cherry pick some decent games in the 33F-40F range? At least 32F is quantifiable as the freezing point of water.

Too much forehead exposure at that temp?

Its plausible.

 

[scout]

Re: Mad props to BB for taking the wind by ESPN

Read a great article this morning in the Herald by Callahan.
http://bostonherald.com/sports/colu...anning_s_cold_weather_failures_to_doom_denver

He referenced the sideline reporter's vote from the three hall of fame coaches picking Manning over Brady. "But the voting wasn’t over. There was one more Hall of Fame coach we hadn’t yet heard from."
BB gave that QB the ball in OT! Here score on us.

Later he writes this question:"Belichick bet against Manning, and it brought up another simple question: Would he ever do that if he were looking across the field at Tom Brady? Would any coach — Gibbs, Shula, Tony Dungy, anyone — give the ball to Brady in overtime in hopes that he couldn’t handle the wind?"
WOW!

 

[borg]

Re: Mad props to BB for taking the wind by ESPN

Why does the freezing point always get the love? 32 F is also the melting point.

Can H2O melt and freeze at the same time?

 

[PatsDeb]

Re: Mad props to BB for taking the wind by ESPN

Even including the games between 33-40 degrees shows Manning has a less than 50% chance (or history, I guess is a more accurate word) of winning if the temperature is below 40 degrees, much worse if it is below 32 degrees. I am not sure how that shows it's a fallacy that Peyton Manning does not play well in cold weather. He's been much more than a 50% winner for the last decade, except for when he plays in cold weather, and I'd venture to say that the cold becomes more of a factor the older and more banged up he gets.

 

[Galeb]

Re: Mad props to BB for taking the wind by ESPN

Can H2O melt and freeze at the same time?

Water and Ice can exist at the exact same temp.. The only difference is latent heat.

 

[scout]

Re: Mad props to BB for taking the wind by ESPN

Another wind strategy just occurred to me. There was a chance that Ghost misses the kick. Denver had used it's last time out to try and freeze the kicker. BB puts the offense back onto the field to eliminate the two minute warning timeout. Thus, if the field goal is missed Manning has to throw to the sidelines which is the most difficult throw against the wind. If that scenario plays out it's either a tie game or the Pats might even get the ball back for a hail Mary throw.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Re: Mad props to BB for taking the wind by ESPN

Interesting. Scott Kasmar is an incredibly annoying Brady hater/Manning ballwasher

What else would you expect from a standard issue azzhole Squealer fan?

 

[Galeb]

Re: Mad props to BB for taking the wind by ESPN

Another wind strategy just occurred to me. There was a chance that Ghost misses the kick. Denver had used it's last time out to try and freeze the kicker. BB puts the offense back onto the field to eliminate the two minute warning timeout. Thus, if the field goal is missed Manning has to throw to the sidelines which is the most difficult throw against the wind. If that scenario plays out it's either a tie game or the Pats might even get the ball back for a hail Mary throw.

BB actually clarified this. He said that if he thought of it quicker, he would have put the offense out there instead.

 

[Sfpat]

Re: Mad props to BB for taking the wind by ESPN

Another wind strategy just occurred to me. There was a chance that Ghost misses the kick. Denver had used it's last time out to try and freeze the kicker. BB puts the offense back onto the field to eliminate the two minute warning timeout. Thus, if the field goal is missed Manning has to throw to the sidelines which is the most difficult throw against the wind. If that scenario plays out it's either a tie game or the Pats might even get a pick six or the ball back for a hail Mary throw.

I think this is what you really meant

 

[groganbootleg]

Re: Mad props to BB for taking the wind by ESPN

I had an interesting revelation about the decision during the game. If you take the ball first and don't score then you have lost your advantage. If you take the wind you retain the advantage for the entire OT session. In this case both the Pats and the Broncos had the ball one time and did not score. Normally, the advantage would then go to the Broncos, but in this case they still had to contend with the wind. So by taking the wind BB and the Pats maintained a distinct advantage through the entire period.