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PFT via NFL Matchup:Brady not faring well vs the blitz

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I watched the show last night and they focused on the stats when opposing defenses blitz. Here's the condensed version for those that don't want to give PFT a click for an article about an ESPN show:

Sacks:
2013: 9 (and counting)
2012: 7

Completion Percentage:
2013: 53.8%
2012: 81.9%

Passer Rating:
2013: 81.9
2012: 117.6

Jaworski gives examples of Brady of what he terms to be badly underthrown passes. Jaws may be correct, or it may be a case of the QB and WR not reading the defense the same way; it's unfortunate that he doesn't even consider that possibility, which make me wonder how well he understands this offense.

I don't believe there is any one specific reason, but it is more a case of several circumstances. Brady's age is one of them, but there is also a drop in performance by the offensive line, players that were expected to be be playing being not available (Gronk, AH, Amendola, Vereen), and the time it takes for rookies to not only acclimate to the speed of play in the NFL, but to also be able to read and react properly in order to be on the same page as their quarterback.
 
I didn't read the article, as I refuse to patronize PFT, so perhaps they addressed this, but the problem I always have with these types of analyses are that they rarely put these things in context. They try to dazzle you with a very select set of numbers intended to support their specific conclusion. It's the old "these are the conclusions on which my facts are based" approach.

I would guess that most quarterbacks do not put up as good a set of numbers against the blitz as they do overall. How do Brady's numbers against the blitz this year compare to the league-wide average? Is this just a year where, for whatever reason, defenses are finding more success blitzing? Which quarterbacks at this point have statistics that are appreciably better than Brady's, and why? Are the teams that have a stronger TE group than Mulligan and Hooman, and/or better receiving threats out of the backfield than Bolden and Blount, and/or better wideouts than Thompkins, Dobson, and Edelman having better success against the blitz? How do this year's league-wide numbers compare to the numbers in the recent past?

If this article provides this type of context, then I'd be interested to see it. If it doesn't, than I would view it as another example of the national media developing statistics to suit their preconceived storylines, and thus not worthy of much concern to me.

With that said, I think we need to be realistic about where Brady is at this point in his career. We should not expect him to be the late 20's/early 30's athlete anymore. That would be true even if he had a 100% version of Gronk and former employees number 81 and 83, and an offensive line playing at a lot higher level than what he is working with. So, if it is even true that he is not longer in his prime, that's OK by me, I'll take this version of the guy over almost anyone else in football.
 
well, usually when you blitz brady would dump it off to a TE or woodhead...so far thus year bolden has dropped the ball and hooman/mulligan had been fairly ineffective in the passing game.

although, when he did go to hooman against the saints he was pretty effective against the blitz
 
Why is that surprising in a year where experienced receivers are injured, in jail or gone?

That's like reporting he got wet when he forgot his umbrella.

Rooks should be better, Gronk is huge, Amendola has great chemistry for a new guy, Collie might too. Vereen should help.

This in no way validates moaning about one receiver who left, especially since Amendola has performed well when healthy.

It's simply an acknowledgement of a reality that couldn't have been predicted.

For example, if he had Hernandez, Gronk, Amendola, Vereen and the rooks to throw to, I think he'd be handling the blitz just fine.
 
well, usually when you blitz brady would dump it off to a TE or woodhead...so far thus year bolden has dropped the ball and hooman/mulligan had been fairly ineffective in the passing game.

although, when he did go to hooman against the saints he was pretty effective against the blitz

Good observation. Even someone as limited as Hooman has the attribute of trust. Brady's not going to just fling it up there, which is what makes him Tom Brady and stops ugly wins from going the other way.
 
You don't need to look much further than knowing that OL is on pace to set a new record for letting Brady get sacked

That's not good. Add to that an injury depleted TE and WR corps with Edelman his most dependable target and Thompkins and others having a heckuva lotta drops... that doesn't help either

And now the prospect that Brady is playing with hurt fingers doesn't make me warm and fuzzy either

Tom Brady photographed with fingers taped together | masslive.com
 
I didn't read the article, as I refuse to patronize PFT, so perhaps they addressed this, but the problem I always have with these types of analyses are that they rarely put these things in context. They try to dazzle you with a very select set of numbers intended to support their specific conclusion. It's the old "these are the conclusions on which my facts are based" approach.

I would guess that most quarterbacks do not put up as good a set of numbers against the blitz as they do overall. How do Brady's numbers against the blitz this year compare to the league-wide average? Is this just a year where, for whatever reason, defenses are finding more success blitzing? Which quarterbacks at this point have statistics that are appreciably better than Brady's, and why? Are the teams that have a stronger TE group than Mulligan and Hooman, and/or better receiving threats out of the backfield than Bolden and Blount, and/or better wideouts than Thompkins, Dobson, and Edelman having better success against the blitz? How do this year's league-wide numbers compare to the numbers in the recent past?

This isn't about comparing Brady to everyone else. It is about comparing him to himself last year. It is relevant whether you like it or not.

I have a feeling the problems are twofold. One is Brady spent the off season working with his new targets and had plenty of time to realize it was going to be tough with them. I would imagine he felt a great deal of frustration just in practices. This would alter his mindset going into the regular season. His most reliable target is not with him. His binkie is gone, and everyone knows how much he relied on Wes, well everyone it seems other than BB.

Additionally the offensive line performance of last year was probably hugely overrated simply because Brady was so awesome at getting rid of the ball quickly. So their confidence has taken a hit because he is holding it longer. Not only is he missing is primary outlet in Wes, but he has been missing Gronk, Aaron and Danny. He does not know who he can trust and where he wants to go with the ball in 2 seconds anymore.

This has increased how much he presses and how much stress he is under during the game. When he presses, is stressed out and feels the pressure he is less accurate as any QB is.

I am sure he will improve in this area if and when he has Edelman, Vareen, Amendola and Gronk on the field together. Additionally everyone will perceive the offensive line as doing a better job. They won't be, necessarily, but TB will be getting rid of the ball more quickly.

The long term issue is all of those guys can not be counted on to be on the field consistently together.
 
It's simply an acknowledgement of a reality that couldn't have been predicted.

Uh, I predicted the issues. I knew he would miss Wes a lot. I knew BB not bringing Wes back would screw with TB's head. I knew Amendola would have injury issues. I knew Gronk would not come back at the beginning of the season. I knew you could not replace the top 5 targets and have a smooth running offense. Of course no one knew Aaron would be a murderer, but I did feel he was not someone that could be counted on regularly as well. All of the issues were predictable and I talked about it all off season. Not here, but on other sites.
 
Uh, I predicted the issues. I knew he would miss Wes a lot. I knew BB not bringing Wes back would screw with TB's head. I knew Amendola would have injury issues. I knew Gronk would not come back at the beginning of the season. I knew you could not replace the top 5 targets and have a smooth running offense. Of course no one knew Aaron would be a murderer, but I did feel he was not someone that could be counted on regularly as well. All of the issues were predictable and I talked about it all off season. Not here, but on other sites.

I predicted all these things, too, plus the scores of all the NE games so far this season. It was on a different site, though. You wouldn't know it. It's from Niagara Falls.
 
Uh, I predicted the issues. I knew he would miss Wes a lot. I knew BB not bringing Wes back would screw with TB's head. I knew Amendola would have injury issues. I knew Gronk would not come back at the beginning of the season. I knew you could not replace the top 5 targets and have a smooth running offense. Of course no one knew Aaron would be a murderer, but I did feel he was not someone that could be counted on regularly as well. All of the issues were predictable and I talked about it all off season. Not here, but on other sites.

Damn. You must get a lot of *****.
 
Uh, I predicted the issues. I knew he would miss Wes a lot. I knew BB not bringing Wes back would screw with TB's head. I knew Amendola would have injury issues. I knew Gronk would not come back at the beginning of the season. I knew you could not replace the top 5 targets and have a smooth running offense. Of course no one knew Aaron would be a murderer, but I did feel he was not someone that could be counted on regularly as well. All of the issues were predictable and I talked about it all off season. Not here, but on other sites.
Why not here?
 
Uh, I predicted the issues. I knew he would miss Wes a lot. I knew BB not bringing Wes back would screw with TB's head. I knew Amendola would have injury issues. I knew Gronk would not come back at the beginning of the season. I knew you could not replace the top 5 targets and have a smooth running offense. Of course no one knew Aaron would be a murderer, but I did feel he was not someone that could be counted on regularly as well. All of the issues were predictable and I talked about it all off season. Not here, but on other sites.

Hell I knew Hernandez was a murderer, but that's only one guy. Hats off to your clairvoyant abilities.
 
Why not here?

I have never really liked these kind of slow moving threads where no telling when or if anyone is going to discuss anything with you.

No matter how many times I would tell people that letting go of Wes was a really really really stupid move, I got the blindly optimistic "in bill we trust" kind of responses. To me it has nothing to do with trust. It has to do with recognizing reality. TB never had a connection with any other receiver like he had with Wes. Why were Wes' drops so huge to everyone? Because he was going to be the one targeted in the most important moments EVERY time. He never got a reprieve. That is where TB was going. So his drops stood out like a sore thumb, not the other guys, because they were not being targeted when it really mattered.

The game BB played with Wes was mind numbingly dumb. Sure BB was right in saying Wes may have over estimated his value on the open market. That wasn't the issue however. The issue was his value to the Pats. Wes' value to the Pats was twice what his value is to anyone else. Not only for his performance but for what he meant to TB and how he helped TB perform at his best. Bringing Wes back was so important to TB that he cut the team the deal to free money to pay Wes what he was worth to the Pats. BB screwed the pooch on this one big time. Not only was it going to change the offense for TB, it had to piss him off beyond belief. He tows the company line, but he is human and that was his best friend and the embarrassment of it all is evident in Denver right now.

Next it was overly optimistic to think Gronk would be back at the beginning of the season. 4 surgeries on his arm and back surgery. He was rushed back before which led to the ongoing issue. What would you do if you were Gronk? It didn't take a degree in physics to figure he was not going to rush back. That he was going to want all assurances that his forearm is as good as it can be so it won't break again easily. He has yet to earn a lot of his contract.

Amendola, please. I was stunned people were excited about that pick up. Didn't anyone notice how willing the Rams were to let him go? Uh, yeah, think they knew a thing or two about his reliability? I mean beyond what was obvious to the observer (fan). Everyone knew how many games he missed, and everyone knew how talented of a receiver he was when he was on the field. Well there had to be more to it than just the missed games, for the Rams to not even try to sign him.

How many crushing hits had everyone seen Wes take each year, pretty much each game? And he just popped back up and went back to the huddle. Why BB did not value that is beyond me. It seemed pretty obvious that Amendola is not the type of guy that is anywhere near as tough as Wes and when he would take the same kind of crushing hits Wes would take, he would not be popping back up and going back to the huddle.

Lloyd seems like an obvious necessary change, except for the fact there were already so many other lost targets, it probably would have made sense to bring him back.

I thought Woodhead was greatly under valued. A reliable target for Tom, made gutsy runs, and held on to the ball. Oh also, reliable, yet the right move was to let the reliable player walk? Again, a big head scratcher as to why he was let go. The money was there.

Lastly BB himself has stated that in his own mind translating the apparent skill of wide receivers in college to projections for how they may perform in the NFL is incredibly difficult and unreliable which is why he has long relied on signing free agent receivers from other teams that have shown they were capable NFL receivers.

When he finally reached out to sign Sanders, that seemed to be the most critical signing of the off season. Unfortunately he went cheap. As tight as the Steelers were against the cap he could have easily made it an offer they could not match. That guy is a burner and is reliable.

So without Sanders what was left was Amendola and that was it. There was really not much reason to be too optimistic about draft choices just based on BB's track record with them and his own words.

So really it has little to do with clairvoyance and more to do with critical assessment devoid of the eternal optimistic pass given so often by saying 'in bill we trust'.

OH, one last thing. TB is in the twilight of his career. Everyone knows that, right? Well so does TB. He talks of playing into his 40's, but he also has a tremendous sense of urgency to win another title before his career is over. So what did BB do this off season? Act like TB is in his prime and there is plenty of time to totally revamp the offense. It would be foolish to think that was not disheartening to TB. It wasn't a sign that BB had the same urgency to make it happen at all costs, THIS YEAR. I think TB redoing his deal says that was his mindset. So knowing human nature, it seemed obvious to me it was going to be very very hard for TB to perform at his best. Actually nearly impossible.
 
I have never really liked these kind of slow moving threads where no telling when or if anyone is going to discuss anything with you.

No matter how many times I would tell people that letting go of Wes was a really really really stupid move, I got the blindly optimistic "in bill we trust" kind of responses. To me it has nothing to do with trust. It has to do with recognizing reality. TB never had a connection with any other receiver like he had with Wes. Why were Wes' drops so huge to everyone? Because he was going to be the one targeted in the most important moments EVERY time. He never got a reprieve. That is where TB was going. So his drops stood out like a sore thumb, not the other guys, because they were not being targeted when it really mattered.

The game BB played with Wes was mind numbingly dumb. Sure BB was right in saying Wes may have over estimated his value on the open market. That wasn't the issue however. The issue was his value to the Pats. Wes' value to the Pats was twice what his value is to anyone else. Not only for his performance but for what he meant to TB and how he helped TB perform at his best. Bringing Wes back was so important to TB that he cut the team the deal to free money to pay Wes what he was worth to the Pats. BB screwed the pooch on this one big time. Not only was it going to change the offense for TB, it had to piss him off beyond belief. He tows the company line, but he is human and that was his best friend and the embarrassment of it all is evident in Denver right now.

Next it was overly optimistic to think Gronk would be back at the beginning of the season. 4 surgeries on his arm and back surgery. He was rushed back before which led to the ongoing issue. What would you do if you were Gronk? It didn't take a degree in physics to figure he was not going to rush back. That he was going to want all assurances that his forearm is as good as it can be so it won't break again easily. He has yet to earn a lot of his contract.

Amendola, please. I was stunned people were excited about that pick up. Didn't anyone notice how willing the Rams were to let him go? Uh, yeah, think they knew a thing or two about his reliability? I mean beyond what was obvious to the observer (fan). Everyone knew how many games he missed, and everyone knew how talented of a receiver he was when he was on the field. Well there had to be more to it than just the missed games, for the Rams to not even try to sign him.

How many crushing hits had everyone seen Wes take each year, pretty much each game? And he just popped back up and went back to the huddle. Why BB did not value that is beyond me. It seemed pretty obvious that Amendola is not the type of guy that is anywhere near as tough as Wes and when he would take the same kind of crushing hits Wes would take, he would not be popping back up and going back to the huddle.

Lloyd seems like an obvious necessary change, except for the fact there were already so many other lost targets, it probably would have made sense to bring him back.

I thought Woodhead was greatly under valued. A reliable target for Tom, made gutsy runs, and held on to the ball. Oh also, reliable, yet the right move was to let the reliable player walk? Again, a big head scratcher as to why he was let go. The money was there.

Lastly BB himself has stated that in his own mind translating the apparent skill of wide receivers in college to projections for how they may perform in the NFL is incredibly difficult and unreliable which is why he has long relied on signing free agent receivers from other teams that have shown they were capable NFL receivers.

When he finally reached out to sign Sanders, that seemed to be the most critical signing of the off season. Unfortunately he went cheap. As tight as the Steelers were against the cap he could have easily made it an offer they could not match. That guy is a burner and is reliable.

So without Sanders what was left was Amendola and that was it. There was really not much reason to be too optimistic about draft choices just based on BB's track record with them and his own words.

So really it has little to do with clairvoyance and more to do with critical assessment devoid of the eternal optimistic pass given so often by saying 'in bill we trust'.

OH, one last thing. TB is in the twilight of his career. Everyone knows that, right? Well so does TB. He talks of playing into his 40's, but he also has a tremendous sense of urgency to win another title before his career is over. So what did BB do this off season? Act like TB is in his prime and there is plenty of time to totally revamp the offense. It would be foolish to think that was not disheartening to TB. It wasn't a sign that BB had the same urgency to make it happen at all costs, THIS YEAR. I think TB redoing his deal says that was his mindset. So knowing human nature, it seemed obvious to me it was going to be very very hard for TB to perform at his best. Actually nearly impossible.

Actually it was essentially the correct move to go to amendola. Wes had a 3 year 18 million dollar contract offered to him in 2012, and this FA he rejected a pats offer equal to Denver's. Wes chose to leave. We did what we thought his value was and nailed his value. He chose to leave.
Amendola plays different then Wes. He is way more physical and trying to get extra yardage. Wes would get down. Prolonging his longevity in games and seasons. Amendola will be a vital key. But to say welker would help fix this offense is absurd. He would be double teamed easily, and Brady would still go to him. Welker had a choice, and we (and wes) moved on. Get over it.
Amendola has better athleticism than Wes. We couldn't control amendolas concussion. He couldn't. He got smashed. We have to deal with it. The teams that overcome adversity have won the last 3 Super Bowls. If we can limp to the bye at 6-3 or 7-2, get some key players back, this team is in excellent condition going forward.
But to say Wes would have fixed this offense right now is absurd. Brady still would have only had Wes, Edelman and the rooks. Instead we had Edelman and the rooks doing quite well for the conditions.
 
On average, over the duration of his career, TB has had better numbers against the blitz than against a traditional 4 man (or fewer) pass rush. Given he's been so good against the blitz for a long time, it is noteworthy that as of now he's much worse against the blitz. Argue the factors leading to the change all you want, but there is no escaping the dramatic fall off of a QB who made a HOF career out of scorching teams that came after him. So far I've just shrugged my shoulders and said let's see where we end up. However now I am officially 'worried'. Forgive me TB12!
 
Pretty much any QB would not fare well against the blitz if your O-Line can't block worth a damn and your weapons are, for the most part, a bunch of inexperienced rookies or veteran no-names.
 
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