What's up with all this Brady is declining crap??

[Kdo5]

What's surprising people, I think, is that they didn't actually expect Amendola to get hurt, despite his history. An offense with Amendola/Edelman/Dobson or Thompkins as the top 3 WRs is a much different offense than one with Thompkins/Edelman/Dobson as the top 3 WRs.

Julio Jones caught 54 passes as a rookie
A.J. Green caught 65 passes as a rookie
Calvin Johnson caught 48 passes as a rookie

That's 3 of the very best WRs in the game today, and the Patriots are, out of necessity, forcing the ball to Thompkins and Dobson to the tune of them being on pace for 53 and 50 catches respectively, despite all the drops, poor routes, etc..., when neither of them is near the level of a Jones, Green or Johnson. When you couple that with the absence of Gronk and AHern, terrible offensive play really shouldn't be surprising anyone. I think that the fact that it is surprising so many people just shows that a lot of people really didn't remember how much rookie WRs usually struggle, probably because we haven't really had to deal with that in New England since Branch was a rookie.

Brady's just the fall guy.

At this point in the season I definitely pin some of our woes directly on Tom Brady, and for good reason. The receivers have had an obscene amount of drops yet it isn't something we can't overcome with consistently good play at QB.

Just watching the game it is clear as day that Brady's is throwing bad passes. It's clear that he has botched too many deep throws to open receivers. That's on him. He's thrown some pitiful interceptions too.

I love Brady but he is playing poorly, which makes him not 'just the fall guy'.

I think we'll turn things around on offense. I thought there were flashes of it in the first half of the game...then the wheels came off due to Tom's interception and inability to recover.

 

[Deus Irae]

...Just watching the game it is clear as day that Brady's is throwing bad passes. It's clear that he has botched too many deep throws to open receivers. That's on him. He's thrown some pitiful interceptions too.

1.) Every QB throws pitiful INTs. Brady is no exception.

2.) We don't know how the following is impacting the passing game:

Vereen's absence
Gronk's absence
Amendola's absence
Rookie drops
Rookie poor routes
Rookies not getting open enough
Passing more to the outside than in the middle

What we do know, though is that the QB is being forced to hold the ball longer, the offensive line is getting beat much more often as a result, and throws are having to be much longer (not just on 'bombs', but on 'normal' routes as well, with so many more going to the sides). Most people here acknowledged a likely offensive decline even with a healthy Gronk/Amendola/Edelman/Vereen/Rookies lineup. Why should we be surprised when not even having that group results in an even worse offensive showing?

Now, you can try fixing some blame percentage to that, if you choose. I prefer to acknowledge the obvious: The receiver problem is killing the passing game. I don't really need to get into fixing a percentage of blame for the secondary and tertiary issues, because I'm far more interested in the root cause (since it's largely fixable just by having injured players return to health), and I expect that when Gronk/Amendola/Vereen return and get up to speed, we'll see the passing game looking much improved. If that doesn't happen, that's when I'll start worrying about secondary and tertiary possibilities.

 

[TruthSeeker]

Everyone is harping on the new receivers, BUT, Brady has had SIX MONTHS to get on the same page as these new guys (since May minicamps). 6 MONTHS ! The younger Tom Brady would have adapted already. His play is declining. When's the last time you've seen Tom Brady throw for under 50% ? He's done it 3 times already this season. In 2006, when there was huge turnover at the receiver spot, he still was able to get it done. Got the Pats to the AFCCG, and it was the overaged defense that lost that game.

I'm sure we will see glimpses of the old Tom Brady (like vs N.O. and Atlanta), but I think those glimpses will get further and further apart. Not blaming him entirely, but I look at guys like Peyton Manning, whom I hate with a passion, adapt to a brand new cast of recievers in Denver last season after a full season off (granted they are veteran receivers), and see him having no issues at all. It seems like Brady is declining at a faster pace. EIGHT TD PASSES IN 7 GAMES, that's just horrendous, he's on pace for under 20 TD passes, which he hasn't done since his first season as a starter.

I'm not saying things can't get better, everyone has to take the blame, bad O-Line play, drops, horrendous play calling, and poor play by Brady are the reason the Offense is struggling. Luckily, despite all of that, the Pats are 5-2 and in first place.

 

[FCB02062]

1.) Every QB throws pitiful INTs. Brady is no exception.

2.) We don't know how the following is impacting the passing game:

Vereen's absence
Gronk's absence
Amendola's absence
Rookie drops
Rookie poor routes
Rookies not getting open enough
Passing more to the outside than in the middle

What we do know, though is that the QB is being forced to hold the ball longer, the offensive line is getting beat much more often as a result, and throws are having to be much longer (not just on 'bombs', but on 'normal' routes as well, with so many more going to the sides). Most people here acknowledged a likely offensive decline even with a healthy Gronk/Amendola/Edelman/Vereen/Rookies lineup. Why should we be surprised when not even having that group results in an even worse offensive showing?

Now, you can try fixing some blame percentage to that, if you choose. I prefer to acknowledge the obvious: The receiver problem is killing the passing game. I don't really need to get into fixing a percentage of blame for the secondary and tertiary issues, because I'm far more interested in the root cause (since it's largely fixable just by having injured players return to health), and I expect that when Gronk/Amendola/Vereen return and get up to speed, we'll see the passing game looking much improved.

The root cause is that 88 catches for 1088 yards and ELEVEN TOUCHDOWNS and ZERO MISSED GAMES are in Denver and San Diego...who made the decision to let Welker and Woodhead go? Krafty Bob and Belichick...FACT not opinion...

 

[Christian]

Everyone is harping on the new receivers, BUT, Brady has had SIX MONTHS to get on the same page as these new guys (since May minicamps). 6 MONTHS ! The younger Tom Brady would have adapted already. His play is declining. When's the last time you've seen Tom Brady throw for under 50% ? He's done it 3 times already this season. In 2006, when there was huge turnover at the receiver spot, he still was able to get it done. Got the Pats to the AFCCG, and it was the overaged defense that lost that game.

I'm sure we will see glimpses of the old Tom Brady (like vs N.O. and Atlanta), but I think those glimpses will get further and further apart. Not blaming him entirely, but I look at guys like Peyton Manning, whom I hate with a passion, adapt to a brand new cast of recievers in Denver last season after a full season off (granted they are veteran receivers), and see him having no issues at all. It seems like Brady is declining at a faster pace. EIGHT TD PASSES IN 7 GAMES, that's just horrendous, he's on pace for under 20 TD passes, which he hasn't done since his first season as a starter.

I'm not saying things can't get better, everyone has to take the blame, bad O-Line play, drops, horrendous play calling, and poor play by Brady are the reason the Offense is struggling. Luckily, despite all of that, the Pats are 5-2 and in first place.

You sound ridiculous. Brady is a guy who relies on his connection with his receivers. He hasn't had that. As someone else said, the Oline hasn't been up to par, the running game has been virtually non existent (which IMO is a bigger problem than people realize, give RIDLEY THE BALL)...Brady's had a ton of pressure on him.

He's basically had no Amendola, no Vereen and no Gronkowski ALL YEAR. He was supposed to have Amendola, Gronk and Hernandez in addition to Thompkins and Dobson...and Vereen.

Now, I know people love Edelman and he's a solid player. He's a great player to have on your team returning punts and he's a great guy to have as a #4 WR. But he's basically been our #1 all year. That's not going to cut it. Thompkins, with as much potential as he has, is VERY raw still. He's an undrafted free agent rookie for heaven's sakes. But his ceiling is not a #1 WR. It's probably somewhere in between a high 3 or low to mid 2. Solid player but not a big difference maker.

And Dobson, same thing as Thompkins. Good young player...with POTENTIAL. His ceiling is probably as a good #2 WR. You don't see young WR's come into this league and tear it up very often. These 2 kids are doing as well as they are because of Brady.

So our receiving corps has basically been a career #4 or 5 WR...and two rookies with POTENTIAL to be good #2 WRs. We've had no tight end...no RB's who can hurt you from the backfield. And people are really wondering why Brady's struggled? If Gronk can stay healthy and play at a high level, we can get Amendola back to 100 %....and get Vereen back week 11...you're going to see a difference. But I think we've got to give Ridley the ball more regardless, and personally I think he should be used more as a passing option as well.


When you combine those factors with the difficulty of the playbook, and being on the same page with Brady, it's completely understandable. The guy has had a ton of pressure to carry the load. The Jets are a VERY good defense. They always play us tough. They were at HOME. It was their SUPERBOWL. We played like **** without Amendola, Vereen, Talib, Wilfork, Mayo, Kelly, etc. and we still SHOULD HAVE had a shot to win that game in OT.

People need to lighten up. Brady will be fine...as long as these guys stay healthy. If we can win out before the bye (not a guarantee considering PITT looks like a challenge now), we will be in great shape.

I don't know if we can win the superbowl. It would take alot of things to fall our way in the playoffs. But we can certainly battle till the end here. This team's faced a ton of adversity and you've got to think that's going to help them later in the year. But the future still looks bright here. If we can keep Talib, draft a DT and some Oline help...we are going to look like an ELITE team on paper heading into next year on both sides of the ball. Brady still has another 2 years after this year to be Brady, and who knows...maybe even more.

Manning looks dominant at 37 and had a severe neck injury. Brady is only 36 with no such injury. Let's enjoy this year.

 

[jmt57]

Everyone is harping on the new receivers, BUT, Brady has had SIX MONTHS to get on the same page as these new guys (since May minicamps). 6 MONTHS !

Chad Ochocinco had more than that much time; was that Brady's problem too?

The general rule of thumb for rookie receivers is three years before they become productive; why is that, and why should that not be expected to be the case here?

Also, let's not forget that with the new CBA there is less time available for these players to practice together than there was previously.

Lastly, when you lose your four top receivers heading into a year, is it not reasonable to expect for there to be a dropoff in productivity?

As a point of reference, here are the numbers for the WRs drafted before Dobson:

1.08 - Tavon Austin - 29 receptions, 198 yards, 2 TD
1.27 - DeAndre Hopkins - 28 receptions, 416 yards, 2 TD
1.29 - Cordarrelle Patterson - 11 receptions, 107 yards, 0 TD
2.34 - Justin Hunter - 3 receptions, 58 yards, 2 TD
2.41 - Robert Woods - 21 receptions, 298 yards, 2 TD

That is an average of 18 receptions, 215 yards, 2 TD

Average for Dobson and Thompkins: 23 receptions, 300 yards, 3 TD


As for Manning, that's an apples and oranges comparison since he is adapting to veteran starters while the Brady has been working exclusively with either rookies, or players that were reserves and special teamers.

 

[ALP]

There have been more times this season than I'd rather count when:

Brady is not being pressured, and the receivers are in their routes, where
1. Brady makes absolutely wrong read, and misses a guy open behind the defense or
2. Brady throws it to open guy but the ball is too high, too far behind receiver, or way too far in front of receiver or
3. Brady makes a throw and the ball lands in the middle of nowhere

In addition his movement in the pocket is nowhere near as deadly as it used to be

Am I saying Brady is showing his age? Not necessarily I'm saying this is easily Brady's worst season in a decade, the reasons why this is happening are endless, but you have your head up your ass if you believe one of the reasons MIGHT NOT BE because of age

 

[reflexblue]

Chad Ochocinco had more than that much time; was that Brady's problem too?

The general rule of thumb for rookie receivers is three years before they become productive; why is that, and why should that not be expected to be the case here?

Also, let's not forget that with the new CBA there is less time available for these players to practice together than there was previously.

Lastly, when you lose your four top receivers heading into a year, is it not reasonable to expect for there to be a dropoff in productivity?

As a point of reference, here are the numbers for the WRs drafted before Dobson:

1.08 - Tavon Austin - 29 receptions, 198 yards, 2 TD
1.27 - DeAndre Hopkins - 28 receptions, 416 yards, 2 TD
1.29 - Cordarrelle Patterson - 11 receptions, 107 yards, 0 TD
2.34 - Justin Hunter - 3 receptions, 58 yards, 2 TD
2.41 - Robert Woods - 21 receptions, 298 yards, 2 TD

That is an average of 18 receptions, 215 yards, 2 TD

Average for Dobson and Thompkins: 23 receptions, 300 yards, 3 TD


As for Manning, that's an apples and oranges comparison since he is adapting to veteran starters while the Brady has been working exclusively with either rookies, or players that were reserves and special teamers.

Usually a team will start One rookie at the WR position at most. i can't recall a team jettesing all its veteran receivers and replacing them with rookies. Not enough time to get acclamated and you never know how a rookie is going to react to the speed and pressure of being in the NFL, no matter how good they were in college.

 

[MassPats38]

Everyone is harping on the new receivers, BUT, Brady has had SIX MONTHS to get on the same page as these new guys (since May minicamps). 6 MONTHS ! The younger Tom Brady would have adapted already. His play is declining. When's the last time you've seen Tom Brady throw for under 50% ? He's done it 3 times already this season. In 2006, when there was huge turnover at the receiver spot, he still was able to get it done. Got the Pats to the AFCCG, and it was the overaged defense that lost that game.

This has been stated repeatedly, but I will offer it again:

2 receivers left in 2006. That was the total turnover.

Returning were veterans Troy Brown, Ben Watson and Daniel Graham.

To date, returning, and on the field, is Edelman, who caught almost as many passes in 4 years as he has caught this year.

In 2006, 3 veterans joined the team, viewed at best as middle tier options that were picked up off the scrap heap: Caldwell, Gaffney, and Gabriel. Now, Brady has Thompkins, Boyce and Dobson, who have no NFL experience whatsoever. It matters that the receiver corps is rookies, who have no experience and little confidence in the system they now are being told to understand and execute.

In 2006, Chad Jackson, the rookie in the mix, did not break 20 receptions in the year (ie., he was not the primary target). How many of the rookies this year will surpass that number? What does that say about the desirability of throwing the weight of the offense on rookies?

2006 and now are not comparable. Rookies are not veterans. 2 pieces are not 5 pieces (TEs and WRs combined). Brady has not done what he is being asked to do before, nor has any good or great QB I can think of. The playbook is massive, and even smart receivers as rookies are not going to have sufficient reps, in voluntary and mandatory sessions, to run the routes perfectly without thinking. That is likely part of the reason, with all the veterans, things ran like clockwork last year and now look dysfunctional.

Is Brady perfect and everyone else to blame? Absolutely not. Is this his fault, or could a 'better' QB make this offense hum? I seriously doubt it. The more veteran pieces that return, the better the chances of an offensive resurgence. Until then, I expect it will continue to be stops and starts with the rookies as they continue to develop and adapt to NFL game speed.

 

[Ozymandias]

Some interesting numbers from a NESN article by Luke Hughes:

Since the start of the 2011 season, Brady has 1,533 pass attempts — only Stafford and Drew Brees have more in that time — which averages out to a little more than 39 passes per game. And it just so happens that 39 figure is the exact threshold between success and failure for Brady and the Patriots.

Brady has thrown 40 or more passes in 16 of the Patriots’ 39 games since the start of the 2011 season. In those games, Brady actually completes a higher percentage of his passes (64.6) than his average (62.6) over the last two-plus seasons, though that is essentially the only positive in those games.

Brady has been intercepted 25 times in total since the start of 2011, and a staggering 20 of them have come in those 40-plus passing games. The Patriots also score fewer points in games where Brady throws that much as well, averaging 26.9 points per game when he tosses it more than 40 times compared to 34.3 points per when he doesn’t. Then, of course, there’s the impact on the win-loss record.

The Patriots have just a 9-7 regular-season record in games when Brady throws it at least 40 times — 1-2 in the postseason, including the Super Bowl loss to the Giants. On the contrary, the Patriots are 21-2 when he throws fewer than 40 passes in a game. It seems there’s a trend here, and one that needed to amended.

Tom Brady’s Magic Number Is 40, And Patriots Are Better Off When He Avoids It

The Patriots need more consistent balance on offense. As these stats show, they often play less efficiently when Brady has to throw more than 40 times a game.

 

[Archeryaddict12]

Some interesting numbers from a NESN article by Luke Hughes:

http://nesn.com/2013/10/tom-brady-needs-to-throw-less-if-he-patriots-offense-expect-to-thrive/

The Patriots need more consistent balance on offense. As these stats show, they often play less efficiently when Brady has to throw more than 40 times a game.

We need balance for sure. But I wonder how many sacks they have in all those losses versuses wins.

 

[Ozymandias]

We need balance for sure. But I wonder how many sacks they have in all those losses versuses wins.

It's highly probable that there are more sacks in losses than there would be in wins. Just the same as there would be with other mistakes, such as turnovers and negative plays.

It's not merely just an opinion that to state that they need to be more balanced. We have enough data for that claim to be a factual one.

The book on defending the Patriots' offense to pretty clear: Force them to throw, throw, and throw. More specifically, throw downfield. In all seven of their losses since last season and until now, the running game has been practically irrelevant. No 100 yard rushers in all of those losses and seemingly every time the rushing attack has been abandoned altogether at some point.

The stats indicate that if you can't stop the Patriots rushing attack from going off, you're highly likely to lose. It would seem that defenses have figured this out and are making a concerted effort to shut down the run and force the Patriots into being one dimensional. Likewise, they're less effective when forced to throw it around the yard, so to speak.

This is even more exasperated this season due to inexperience at the WR positions to allow them to take advantage of that philosophy and air-it-out with proficiency. While they did probably get away with being less balanced in past years, this is not the season to attempting such a tactic.

Simply put in 2013, when playing balanced complimentary football the Patriots have one of the better offenses in the league. When they're not, and are simply one-dimensional, they're below average.

 

[cstjohn17]

Ok, way too much time. Chart shows the career arch of an Elite QB versus an average NFL QB.

Pretty brutal but pick which side of the arch Brady is on... Still he is better than 80% of the league QBs and I don't want anyone else.

 

[Deus Irae]

Some interesting numbers from a NESN article by Luke Hughes:

Tom Brady’s Magic Number Is 40, And Patriots Are Better Off When He Avoids It

The Patriots need more consistent balance on offense. As these stats show, they often play less efficiently when Brady has to throw more than 40 times a game.

The often throw more than 40 times when the game calls for it for specific reasons, too. It's a chicken v. egg scenario. That's why passes thrown is usually a pretty meaningless stat, but a fairly worthwhile barometer.

 

[upstater1]

One of the things that kills me as I watch NFL highlights is all the deep balls thrown for TD across the league, and hardly one of them was on target. Just saw Mike Glennon throw a bomb to Vince Jackson. He goes up grabs it, scores a TD. It's way off target. Peyton throws ducks all night--snagged out of the sky. Back when Brady had Moss in his prime, we saw Brady heaving ill advised passes into triple coverage. TD. I think Dobson has a chance to develop and eventually snag those, but I've seen Brady go up top twice so far this season to Dobson over the middle, only twice. And both times Dobson was unable to pull it down. Granted Brady was way off target on the 25 yarder on the sidelines. But on his two deep bombs over the middle, you had one drop and another ball misjudged. Meanwhile Vince Jackson is slowing down to a standstill and eating M&Ms off the CB's helmet.

 

[BSR]

One of the things that kills me as I watch NFL highlights is all the deep balls thrown for TD across the league, and hardly one of them was on target. Just saw Mike Glennon throw a bomb to Vince Jackson. He goes up grabs it, scores a TD. It's way off target. Peyton throws ducks all night--snagged out of the sky. Back when Brady had Moss in his prime, we saw Brady heaving ill advised passes into triple coverage. TD. I think Dobson has a chance to develop and eventually snag those, but I've seen Brady go up top twice so far this season to Dobson over the middle, only twice. And both times Dobson was unable to pull it down. Granted Brady was way off target on the 25 yarder on the sidelines. But on his two deep bombs over the middle, you had one drop and another ball misjudged. Meanwhile Vince Jackson is slowing down to a standstill and eating M&Ms off the CB's helmet.

I think most of Brady's struggles are mental. In other words he doesn't trust his receivers and he is either waiting longer then he normally would to make sure the receiver is going they are supposed to and then gunning it in; or he is throwing it so far away from the defender that his own player doesn't have a good chance at it.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Dobson should have at least 3 more TDs where Brady has overthrown him. Same with that Amendola overthrow vs Saints...was a HUGE miss

 

[Archeryaddict12]

Dobson should have at least 3 more TDs where Brady has overthrown him. Same with that Amendola overthrow vs Saints...was a HUGE miss

I agree, maybe not Tds but 3 more receptions. Brady should have hit amendola. I hope Danny returns next week. I love the fact he just gives it his all every play, trying to get every inch. But unfortunately, that results in bigger hits and more injuries.

 

[PatriotSpy]

I get a kick out of the people saying Brady isn't in decline. Really? Do we expect him to be a prime passing qb until he retires at 42?

It's obvious he is in decline. His core and hip rotation isn't as powerful as it was. Just look at video of him couple years ago. Very good explosion and fluidity with the hips, much like a baseball hitter rotates his hips to generate a powerful swing and drive the ball (Brady was a baseball player so he knows). Now, it's almost like he has to push the ball or arm it to get velocity. It's very subtle but it's there. It explains why his deep ball isn't powerful and why he's inaccurate.

It's not to say he can't be effective but his days of carrying the load is over. He needs a good running game. If he can get a bad ass running game ala Brett Favre with the vikings, Brady can still be very effective in the later stages of his career.

 

[borg]

CBSSports.com piling on TB

The Week in Overreactions: 'Don't worry about Tom Brady' - CBSSports.com