Business Insider "BB's Drafting of DBs Is Killing The Pats"

[AzPatsFan]

Bologna . Pure Bologna.

The secondary can be as many as a dozen players. It takes time to find the pieces when you need that many.

Plus career ending injuries have hampered the development. Leigh Bodden, a keeper, Ras-i Dowling a keeper, were removed by career ending injury.

So was Ty Wheatly, a not so good draftee maybe, but we'll never know what he might have become as injury removed him too.

Darius Butler turns out to be a keeper, but BB gave up on him too soon. He now starts for the Clots.

That is 4 high picks alone, that are no longer on the jigsw puzzzle that BB is constructing.

Others who played ok, but never reached the heights desired are Meriwether and Chung. They proved unsatisfactory eventually, but busts they were not.

BB just has had a run of bad luck with the health of his secondary picks.

 

[RodThePat]

Bologna . Pure Bologna.

The secondary can be as many as a dozen players. It takes time to find the pieces when you need that many.

Plus career ending injuries have hampered the development. Leigh Bodden, a keeper, Ras-i Dowling a keeper, were removed by career ending injury.

So was Ty Wheatly, a not so good draftee maybe, but we'll never know what he might have become as injury removed him too.

Darius Butler turns out to be a keeper, but BB gave up on him too soon. He now starts for the Clots.

That is 4 high picks alone, that are no longer on the jigsw puzzzle that BB is constructing.

Others who played ok, but never reached the heights desired are Meriwether and Chung. They proved unsatisfactory eventually, but busts they were not.

BB just has had a run of bad luck with the health of his secondary picks.

Leigh Bodden wasn't a Patriots draft pick, and both Wheatley and Ras-I had an extensive injury history in college, how is it bad luck that they were frequently injured in the pros? And I'd argue Meriweather was most definitely a bust, regardless of how many hilariously underserved Pro-Bowls he took part in.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Since when does the Business Insider staff know anything about football?

 

[FoxWhiskey]

Don´t shoot the messenger!

I hate to see, how many picks we have spending in draft picks and nothing doesn´t really work.

But i think, meanwhile, we have a seriously problem at coaching staff. We have no signifant player evaluation.

Look at our backfield personal!
Talib/ McCourty: good, but if injured we´re ****ed
Dennard: good, but maybe he will join Hernandez prison team
Rookies: no more to say
Ebner:ST
Arrington: oh my god! and he got an extension!
Tavon Wilson: Ehm...ok... he´s on the team

The only hope, i have, our passrush makes a big progress and is permanently dangerous.

 

[Jackson 2]

Yeah, that rag Forbes also agrees the franchise has been killed...oops!

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

Article is flawed enough that critics shouldn't need to resort to ad hominems.

The followup article on rankings gives the Pats a C for the draft, the second worst of all 32 teams...(Dallas C-)...Considering that they were one of only 8 teams to have all their draft picks make the roster, that should tell you a lot about BI and their football acumen....

 

[50-yard-line]

The article is CRAP because there is no context. What have other teams done in the same period? And with WHAT picks? There are NOT a lot of "special" DBs out there, and it seems to be one of the great crap shoots in drafting. Plenty of guys look like they have the physical skills, but don't have the NFL head for it. Plenty of guys looks like they have the physical skills, but in a tough physical position - cutting, twisting, turning, tumbling in a heap - get hurt a lot, and one injury to a knee or a hip can change everything at this position. Like Dowling.

A quick rebuttal:

Antwan Harris (4th round, 2000): Started two games in three years, out of the league by 2004.
Leonard Myers (6th round, 2001): Started one game in two years, out of the league by 2004.

The Pats secondary in 2004-2005 was pretty good, so I wouldn't expect much out of a 4th and a 6th in that era, unless the guy was a diamond in the rough. It's unlikely anyone drafted here would still be with the team anyway, so it's irrelevant to the premise of the article.


Eugene Wilson (2nd round, 2003): Started 55 games in five years with New England.
Asante Samuel (4th round, 2003): Perenniel Pro Bowler, played five season in New England before being traded.

A couple of pretty good picks, I'd say!


Guss Scott (3rd round, 2004): Cut after one season.
Dexter Reid (4th round, 2004): Cut after one season.

And a couple of misses.

Ellis Hobbs (3rd round, 2005): Started for four years in New England.
James Sanders (4th round, 2005): Started for two season, back-up for four others in New England.

Two more pretty good picks. You get 4 years out of a 3rd rounder and 6 years out of a 4th, and you did pretty well!


Willie Andrews (7th round, 2006): Never started, let go after two years.

Umm, yeah, like most 7th rounders...

Brandon Meriweather (1st round, 2007): In and out of the starting lineup for four years before leaving for Tampa Bay.

This one hurt, I admit. BM could have been a good player. Flashed, but serious head case in the end. No discipline back there won't cut it on a BB team.


Mike Richardson (6th round, 2007): Cut after one season.

6th round...typical for every team.

Terrence Wheatley (2nd round, 2008): Cut after two seasons.
Jonathan Wilhite (4th round, 2008): Started 13 games in three years before leaving.
Patrick Chung (2nd round, 2009): In and out of the starting lineup for four years before leaving.
Darius Butler (2nd round, 2009): Cut after two years.

This is the heart of the problem, particularly 2008 (the rest of the list goes against the thesis of the article, in my opinion). How good would Wheatley have been sans injury? And Butler is actually pretty good now.


Devin McCourty (1st round, 2010): Has started for three years.

Great pick.

Ras-I Dowling (2nd round, 2011): Cut before this season .

Discussed to death already. Would have been great to see him stay healthy, but such is life.

Malcolm Williams (7th round, 2011): Appeared in four games in two years, zero starts. No longer on team.

Irrelevant - 7th round.

Tavon Wilson (2nd round, 2012): Started five games last year.

Remains to be seen, the hatred here notwithstanding. His numbers were not bad last year - were pretty good, actually. He needs to take a step up, but no one here or elsewhere knows if he will or won't, and a big part of that is whether or not the Pats find a role for him that fits his skills - see McCourty, Devin.

Nate Ebner (6th round, 2012): Back-up last year, zero starts.

Yeah, umm, he's a special teamer and was drafted as a project.

Alfonzo Dennard (7th round, 2012):

GREAT pick.


So I fail to see how this analysis lives up to the title of the article. Nor does it make any comparisons of any relevance to bolster the point.

What likelihood do 2nd, 4th, 6th round cbs and safeties have of impacting a team positively? Guys like Pat Peterson (5th), Darelle Revis (14th) and Sherman (25th) are gone by the time the first Pats' pick comes up.

I'll also add that talking about secondary play is among the hardest things to do for a fan. So much depends on scheme, assignment, and things like PASS RUSH. JAG DBs look a lot stronger when teams have a pass rush like the Giants have had, for example.

The Pats haven't had that in years. It's not the defense they have schemed. BB even admitted as much, saying that sacks were overrated. They've played a bend-don't-break, and usually because they're playing from way ahead. In so many games, the Patriots let QBs connect for 5-15 over the middle because the clock is more important than the yards gained.

The Packers adopted a similar philosophy, to similar results. Same for the Saints.

I think that era is over, and BB knows it. I expect a much more aggressive charge for the QB this year. That alone will make their d backfield much better.

 

[Koma]

The followup article on rankings gives the Pats a C for the draft, the second worst of all 32 teams...(Dallas C-)...Considering that they were one of only 8 teams to have all their draft picks make the roster, that should tell you a lot about BI and their football acumen....

Ah, but all those draft picks making the team just shows Belichick is arrogantly trying to win with 'C' level talent so he can look like a genius.

 

[jmt57]

It's bad enough when picks in the late 20s/early 30s are lumped together with top five picks (yet at the same time held to a completely different standard than those in the mid 30s) - but now all 256 draft picks are treated equally in terms of expectations?

:confused2:

The problem with articles such as this one is that it appears as if the writer had a theory and then looked for statistics to back up the claim; a much better approach is to enter with an open mind while analyzing data, and then form a conclusion based on that research.



Without spending a lot of time comparing all other team's draft histories, it does look as though the selections from about 2007 on have been below average relative to those of other clubs. Still, we are working with a very small sample size when you limit the discussion to just one or two positions. Perhaps it should be expanded to include rookie UDFAs, since they were also scouted and targeted by whatever team signs them.

The biggest issue I have though is that there is no baseline, no standard of what is good or bad. We know for example that a QB that completes more than 60% of his passes is doing well, but less than 50% is bad. At the same time we know that those percentages are meaningless in other discussions, such as the percentage of saves a hockey goalie should be expected to make, or the percentage of hits a baseball player (apologies in advance to tunescribe) should make.

Is a percentage of hits and misses even what should be reviewed? Shouldn't it just be the total number of picks that worked out? What qualifies as a good pick or bad pick?

It's bad enough that grading drafts is so subjective; it's exacerbated by the fact that we don't have a reference point to compare it with to conclude that the results were good or bad.

 

[Fencer]

8 of those picks were in the 1st or 2nd rounds, most commonly late 1st or early 2nd. 2 of those 8 were Pro Bowlers, but in both cases with asterisks:

• Brandon Meriweather was one of the worst Pro Bowlers in the history of young Pro Bowlers (old guys being selected for previous work are a whole different category).
• McCourty turned out to be overrated by the selection at the position he was selected for as well. (I think he is and will be an outstanding safety, but he hasn't yet proven Pro Bowl outstandingness at his new position.)

Eugene Wilson was the only other solid starter of the group.


As for later rounds -- one solid starter from the 3rd round plus a Pro Bowler and a decent starter from the 4th round is actually a good return, even on a large number of picks expended.


Flip the draft positions of, say, Asante and Chung, and the whole thing doesn't look so bad. It's certainly not great, but it's also not terrible.

 

[Sicilian]

Is a percentage of hits and misses even what should be reviewed? Shouldn't it just be the total number of picks that worked out? What qualifies as a good pick or bad pick?

Kind of my thinking as well. Not that this is what has happened, but as a hypothetical example:

Team A picks at #25, selects a CB and he works out well.

Team B picks at #25, trades out of the first round to get a high 2nd and a 3rd. Picks two CB's, one of whom works out, the other doesn't.

Both techniques took the same original pick, and parlayed it into one successful corner. End result, exactly the same. But one has a "100% hit rate" while the other only 50%.

They've had their struggles picking DB's for sure, but percentage is not a good way to measure it, especially given their typical draft strategy.

 

[Deus Irae]

The Patriots hit a huge draft lull in the 2006-2009 seasons. It was a general lull, with many positions affected. Some positions (DB) have continued to have failures since then.

That's where many of the problems have come from. Belittling the person who wrote the article, or the site it was on, doesn't change the underlying premise, which is that BB's poor DB drafting has had a strong negative impact upon the team. Not only should that be understood as a given, however, his FA work in the defensive secondary has also been a huge part of the problem. Defending the Patriots based upon successes in the 2001-2005 era doesn't do anything to change the reality of the failures since then.

The LB replacement struggles began in 2005 (and began mostly with attempting to bring in veteran replacements) and it took until 2012 to get it mostly fixed.
The DB replacement struggles began in 2007 and are ongoing.

The failures in those two areas alone may already have cost the team multiple SB championships. It is what it is. Killing the messenger(s) isn't going to change that.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Nate Ebner (6th round, 2012): Back-up last year, zero starts.

Yeah, umm, he's a special teamer and was drafted as a project.

They drafted him to be a ST demon, which he is. If he actually develops into a S, that's just tasty, tasty gravy at this point.

 

[Danger Zone]

Re: Re: Business Insider "BB's Drafting of DBs Is Killing The Pats"

The Patriots hit a huge draft lull in the 2006-2009 seasons. It was a general lull, with many positions affected. Some positions (DB) have continued to have failures since then.

That's where many of the problems have come from. Belittling the person who wrote the article, or the site it was on, doesn't change the underlying premise, which is that BB's poor DB drafting has had a strong negative impact upon the team. Not only should that be understood as a given, however, his FA work in the defensive secondary has also been a huge part of the problem. Defending the Patriots based upon successes in the 2001-2005 era doesn't do anything to change the reality of the failures since then.

The LB replacement struggles began in 2005 (and began mostly with attempting to bring in veteran replacements) and it took until 2012 to get it mostly fixed.
The DB replacement struggles began in 2007 and are ongoing.

The failures in those two areas alone may already have cost the team multiple SB championships. It is what it is. Killing the messenger(s) isn't going to change that.

But oh how eager you are to preach these messages over and over and over and over and over.

 

[Danger Zone]

Re: Re: Business Insider "BB's Drafting of DBs Is Killing The Pats"

Someone is pointing out the obvious Patriots struggles drafting DBs, in an article. Let's string him up!

Someone is criticizing Belichick... lets deify him! We will call Deus Hindsightus!

 

[patsfanincleveland]

Leigh Bodden wasn't a Patriots draft pick, and both Wheatley and Ras-I had an extensive injury history in college, how is it bad luck that they were frequently injured in the pros? And I'd argue Meriweather was most definitely a bust, regardless of how many hilariously underserved Pro-Bowls he took part in.

Yeah

Your opinion on Meriweather absolutely proves just how bad your opinion is on this matter.

Meriweather was a pro bowler. He was selected. Just because that fact makes your opinion look clownish doesn't alter the fact that it happened.

Outside of the fact some clown thinks it's undeserved, there is no reason to assume it's underserved. Of course, if you ignore all the good and only consider the bad........it's underserved.

Standard procedure when reality doesn't jive with your "thinking".

 

[MassPats38]

I don't know that poor drafting of any particular position 'kills' a team (certainly not when that 'death' involves multiple title shots and annual playoff appearances - most teams would beg for such an honorable end to the season). First, the draft is not the exclusive source of talent, and the Pats have frequently added capable veterans. Second, BB's philosophy, prior to the point of emphasis on receiver contact, was that pressure from the line and linebackers would permit lesser talent in the secondary.

The pressure from the line has not necessarily been there. Any competent QB (and some not-so-competent QBs), will carve up the typical secondary when given enough time. I seriously doubt there is enough DB talent to account for this problem (if so, which team currently has the stockpile of DBs (ie., backups capable of starting), given the price they command once proven in the NFL?).

Whether the draft misses are line, linebackers or secondary, the result is the same. If the front seven are on, it is funny how good the secondary looks on paper. Take away the pressure, and suddenly there are issues.

I would like to know how other teams fared over the same period - including those with championships. If that is in King's article, it will not open from work and I will look at it later.

 

[Rob0729]

The Pats have been to two AFCCGs and a Super Bowl in the past two seasons. Killing the Pats is an overstatement.

Yes, in recent years, drafting DBs have not been the Pats' strong point to say the very least. But between 2006-2009, drafting in general was an issue. Other than Ras-I Dowling, the DB drafting hasn't been that bad from 2010 on. Jury is out on Tavon Wilson, but it isn't looking good.

 

[50-yard-line]

The Patriots hit a huge draft lull in the 2006-2009 seasons. It was a general lull, with many positions affected. Some positions (DB) have continued to have failures since then.

I agree.

Belittling the person who wrote the article, or the site it was on, doesn't change the underlying premise, which is that BB's poor DB drafting has had a strong negative impact upon the team.

I'm belitting the person wo wrote it not because of your point, but because the article contains no context. How have other teams fared in comparison?
And with SIMILAR draft picks?

How many 3rd round and lower CBs and Safeties have done well since 2004?

How many 2nd rounders?

BB had two 1's and hit well with McCourty, and missed on BM (who still had a couple of good years).

 

[tonyto3690]

Lets be honest, Belichick has wasted quite a few picks on DBs. We have those picks because of him and his success in other areas, but if he had hit on a few more of those this team would be loaded. Imagine if even just Chung and Wheatley had turned into serviceable players for us.

That being said, it's pretty stupid to take everything he's done and point to his one weak spot and try to act like we're worse off because of him.

But again, I really hope they've fired whoever has been the DBs coach/head scout in the past couple years because they've done a really really really bad job.

EDIT:
Look at this list.

2007 Meriweather 1 (24)
2008 Wheatley 2 (62)
2009 Chung 2 (34)
2009 Butler 2 (41)
2010 McCourty 1 (27)
2011 Dowling 2 (33)
2012 Wilson 2 (48)

Say what you want about "everyone misses" (completely true) but given his success over that same span on OL, DL, LB, TE, RB that is A LOT of high draft picks that were big whiffs.

I mean just Chung and Dowling alone, essentially two first rounders completely whiffed.