Fells is a player who from training camp reports seemed to be at the top of the pack among the tight ends early on to not only survive cuts but be a starter. Another August, another injury, and he has quickly gone from frontrunner to an afterthought.
One other thing to consider is that Fells has a
salary cap figure of $1,583,333 and releasing him would save $695,000 on the cap. Although the Pats are not tight on cap space they can either roll money over to next year or extend players like Rob Ninkovich, Ryan Wendell or Devin McCourty sometime this season.
For a while I was thinking Fells would make the roster and Michael Hoomanawanui ($1,323,000 cap figure; $843,000 cap savings if cut) would be the one to go - possibly replaced by a fullback such as James Develin. As Steve points out however, Hooman does offer more flexibility then Develin, and versatility is an attribute that Belichick has always placed a great deal of emphasis on.
Even though AH is history and Gronk won't be ready to start the season, the emergence of Sudfeld makes it a reasonable possibility to release one of either Fells or Hoomanawanui, and right now it looks like Fells would be the one to go.
To me Jermaine Cunningham is less than 50-50; I would put him at about 25-30% with Justin Francis, Marcus Benard and Michael Buchanan providing depth at DE behind Ninkovich and Chandler Jones. Leon Washington is tough to gauge because he has received so little playing time. Adrian Wilson does indeed look slow, but what are the alternatives as a strong safety? Tayvon Wilson has looked even worse and Kanorris Davis has been limited to strictly special team reps. That leaves only Steve Gregory and Duron Harmon to start opposite Devin McCourty; to me Adrian Wilson sticks by default. But as Ian astutely pointed out that's all just a series of guesses on my part; for any and all of us it's just speculation at this point.