Patriots Training Camp, Day 12 (@ Philadephia)

[Sicilian]

If he becomes a good backup or good in some situational packages and they took him in the 5th, for example, that would have been good value for his level of contribution. If he's taken in the second and doesn't contribute more significantly, then it wasn't good value for the pick.

So the question of taking him too early actually does apply. Maybe if we'd gotten someone different at that position AND him much later in the draft, we'd be looking at him differently as a good pick and not a questionable one.

Given that as a possible outcome, especially if he makes the team, I think the key question is placement of the pick not of the pick itself.

I don't think we can even agree on that point, then, sorry to say.

And again, if they believed he wouldn't last until the 5th, then that opportunity never really existed. So you have to evaluate the pick based on where they took him yes, but I don't think it's quite so easy to assume that if you draft a 5th round talent (in hindsight, mind you) in the 2nd round, that it would have made more sense to draft him in the 5th. That chance may not have ever been there.

 

[Deus Irae]

And again, I simply disagree that they are the same. If you'd like to detail why they are the same you're welcome to, but I don't think it matters. Our disagreement is entirely predicated on this distinction (or from your perspective, lack thereof).



And if Wilson was among the last players in that particular grade group, my point still stands.



I'm not trying to justify anything. I'm the type of person who likes to try to understand why things happen rather than just assume I'm smarter than the person making this decision. To me, my scenario is more likely than the others I've heard. But regardless, don't mistake my lack of criticism of the STRATEGY with a lack of criticism for the PICK. If Tavon doesn't end up improving and become a solid contributor, it doesn't matter if they reached or not, they were wrong to grade him in the 2nd round.

But that, IMO, is where the criticism should be. Not did they take him too early, but should they have taken him at all.

You're trying to argue that water's not water because you prefer to call it "oiilliil" even though it's water. That pretty much eliminates further discussion.

Also, note that I was doing my best to avoid specific players.

 

[TruthSeeker]

Never been a fan of Scott Wright's Draft Countdown.

3rd Round Grade.

No offense, I could care less about "some" magazine.

No offense taken. I don't think it was just one magazine though.

You say 10th rated is 3rd round, then 22nd rated is probably 6th round (which is where I saw him rated multiple times, even lower than 6th round). Don't forget, Branch wasn't some incredible college player. He's been a way better pro.

 

[Mack Herron]

Lotsa ways:

QB (2) Brady, Mallett
RB (5) Ridley, Washington, Bolden, Blount, Vereen
WR (6) Dobson, Edelman, Slater, Thompkins, Boyce, Amendola
TE (5) Gronkowski, Sudfeld, Ballard, Hoomanawanui, Fells
C (1) Wendell
G (4) Connolly, Cannon, Green, Mankins
T (3) Solder, Svitek, Vollmer
DE (4) Ninkovich, Francis, Benard, Jones
DT (3) Wilfork, Forston, Kelly
ILB(3) Spikes, Fletcher, Beauharnais
OLB(3) Mayo, Collins, Hightower
CB (5) Dennard, Arrington, Ryan, Cole, Talib
SS (3) Ebner, Wilson, Wilson
FS (3) McCourty, Gregory, Harmon
ST (3) Gostkowski, Allen, Aiken

Total players: 53
Created with Pats Picker: Pats Picker 2013

 

[Sicilian]

You're trying to argue that water's not water because you prefer to call it "oiilliil" even though it's water. That pretty much eliminates further discussion.

Also, note that I was doing my best to avoid specific players.

And you're trying to describe something as definitely water when in reality it is more open to interpretation. But I'll agree we both have eliminated the need for further discussion.

 

[Deus Irae]

And you're trying to describe something as definitely water when in reality it is more open to interpretation. But I'll agree we both have eliminated the need for further discussion.

No, I'm pointing out simple definitions as a general discussion. You're needlessly trying to change them as a way of defending the Patriots in specific instances. When it comes to the NFL draft:

• Reach = drafting player higher than consensus expected player to go (Darius Heyward Bey)
• Steal (1) = drafting player lower than consensus expected player to go (Dennard was a 2nd rounder type before hitting the cop)
• Steal (2) = drafting player who goes on to significantly outperform his draft position (Tom Brady goes on to become the G.O.A.T.)
• Bust = player who plays well below his draft position, usually reserved for high round picks. (i.e. Ryan Leaf)

It is what it is, it's not personal, and it's not aimed at the Patriots or any other specific team(s)/player(s). This discussion happens time and again, and it always seems to be because of homers who just can't accept the simple fact that the Patriots, like all teams, occasionally reach for players.

 

[Danger Zone]

Re: Re: Patriots Training Camp, Day 12 (@ Philadephia)

He also said that there is a lot of difference in evaluations between teams, much more than the average fan would assume, and a lot more than there is between the media evaluators.

Quoted for the Well-Isnt-THAT-Good-To-Know worthiness!

I learned something, thanks man.

 

[RobAllan]

And again, if they believed he wouldn't last until the 5th, then that opportunity never really existed. So you have to evaluate the pick based on where they took him yes, but I don't think it's quite so easy to assume that if you draft a 5th round talent (in hindsight, mind you) in the 2nd round, that it would have made more sense to draft him in the 5th. That chance may not have ever been there.

But who cares? Another 5th round talent would have been available in the... wait for it... 5th round. So the position of the pick still matters. What I'm trying to say is we definitely don't want certain players where we've gotten them, but they might have made more sense if we got them later where many of the oft-maligned analysts thought they would go in the first place.

I'll always give a team a mulligan on a 1-round disparity, because each team can grade so differently. Another poster alluded to this with the GM story.

But when we start talking 4th and 5th round external grades in round 2... there's not in the same ballpark and not on the same planet. I'm okay with a different wheelhouse. I'm not in love with alternate solar systems.

 

[fnordcircle]

There's a whole lot of fantasy football and madden draft expertise being shared in this thread.

 

[Deus Irae]

There's a whole lot of fantasy football and madden draft expertise being shared in this thread.

Awesome post. You should pass it on to that Bill Belichick guy. He likes to ramble on about "value" and such.

Those fantasy/Madden guys like him are just ruining everything.

 

[fnordcircle]

Awesome post. You should pass it on to that Bill Belichick guy. He likes to ramble on about "value" and such.

Those fantasy/Madden guys like him are just ruining everything.

Yes, I'll pass that on to Bill Belichick, the guy in charge of the team whose pick is being called a 'reach' because Kiper.

 

[TyronePoole]

No, I'm pointing out simple definitions as a general discussion. You're needlessly trying to change them as a way of defending the Patriots in specific instances. When it comes to the NFL draft:

• Reach = drafting player higher than consensus expected player to go (Darius Heyward Bey)
• Steal (1) = drafting player lower than consensus expected player to go (Dennard was a 2nd rounder type before hitting the cop)
• Steal (2) = drafting player who goes on to significantly outperform his draft position (Tom Brady goes on to become the G.O.A.T.)
• Bust = player who plays well below his draft position, usually reserved for high round picks. (i.e. Ryan Leaf)

It is what it is, it's not personal, and it's not aimed at the Patriots or any other specific team(s)/player(s). This discussion happens time and again, and it always seems to be because of homers who just can't accept the simple fact that the Patriots, like all teams, occasionally reach for players.

Having an alternate definition of "steal" based on post-draft performance but not the same for "reach" tips your hand wrt your bias. Basically you just want to be able to have a black and white criticism of "reaches" post-draft so that you can make more of your lazy dogmatic statements that have zero underlying logical consistency or relevancy to anything. Either post-draft performance is relevant to reaches and steals or it is not.

And a giant LOL at the idea that the threshold for anything is "consensus."

Somebody quote me so he can carry on pretending that he ignores me.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Our CB depth is getting depleted by the day :/ Down to Talib, Arrington and Ryan. Sure looked wonderful on paper before training camp started, though.

There's plenty of time for Dennard to get healthy. Dowling too, in theory, although I'm skeptical that he's capable of being healthy.

 

[Deus Irae]

Yes, I'll pass that on to Bill Belichick, the guy in charge of the team whose pick is being called a 'reach' because Kiper.

Excellent. While you're at it, you can maybe figure out the difference between "reach" and "crappy player" because as long as one isn't the second, the first isn't usually all that important.

 

[TyronePoole]

Excellent. While you're at it, you can maybe figure out the difference between "reach" and "crappy player" because as long as one isn't the second, the first isn't usually all that important.

and here we have it, the passive aggressive response to my post.

don't worry though, he still has me on ignore he promises.

And I'll just leave it at that.

 

[Fencer]

No, I'm pointing out simple definitions as a general discussion. You're needlessly trying to change them as a way of defending the Patriots in specific instances. When it comes to the NFL draft:

• Reach = drafting player higher than consensus expected player to go (Darius Heyward Bey)
• Steal (1) = drafting player lower than consensus expected player to go (Dennard was a 2nd rounder type before hitting the cop)
• Steal (2) = drafting player who goes on to significantly outperform his draft position (Tom Brady goes on to become the G.O.A.T.)
• Bust = player who plays well below his draft position, usually reserved for high round picks. (i.e. Ryan Leaf)

If there were a single consensus, that might not have been a stupid post.

 

[fnordcircle]

Having an alternate definition of "steal" based on post-draft performance but not the same for "reach" basically tips your hand wrt your bias. Basically you want to be able to have a black and white criticism of "reaches" post-draft so that you can make more of your emphatic statements that have zero underlying logical consistency. Either post-draft performance is relevant to reaches and steals or it is not.

And a giant LOL at the idea that the threshold for anything is "consensus."

Somebody quote me so he can carry on pretending that he ignores me.

We have no way of knowing if the next 31 teams would have drafted Tavon because teams are more protective of their draft board than a Amish father is
protective of his daughter's hymen. Hence there's no true basis to call something a reach unless you had post-draft access to all 32 team draft boards and even then that's all hindsight.

But nah, I'm probably wrong and you can totally know what other teams are going to do because they aren't cloak and dagger about the draft at all and everyone who wasn't picked at the exact number that is a consensus of internet football experts was a reach.

 

[Kontradiction]

It's always curious to me how some here are so quick to praise Belichick when he gets a late round steal (like Dennard), but on the same token defend him when the team reaches on a player and that player doesn't play up to his draft position (a second rounder in this case that was benched for repeated mental errors, and has now apparently been leapfrogged by a rookie that is coming in from a scheme that is essentially the polar opposite of what the Pats fun).

Both instances deserve their share of praise and criticism, respectively. Re: the topic currently at hand, Wilson, to this point, looks like a disappointment. Hopefully Harmon (another reach) comes in and surprises. I'd like to see someone more capable in coverage leapfrog Adrian Wilson by the end of the season, and it would be great to see Harmon do it.

 

[Deus Irae]

If there were a single consensus, that might not have been a stupid post.

You came in to ankle bite and just succeeded in looking silly.


So, par for the course. Congrats....

 

[fnordcircle]

You came in to ankle bite and just succeeded in looking silly.


So, par for the course. Congrats....

Man, I got to give you credit. This page has been nothing but short, snarky posts from you and they are delight to read compared to the reams of blowhard know-it-allism you normally vomit onto my screen like it's a paid gig.

There's hope for you yet, son. Now if we could just get a single post out of you where you didn't sound like the most bitter dude on the planet we'd be getting somewhere.