Folks are simply assuming that Belichick has given up on getting the kind of production from the wide receiver position that we got last year, and that we will rely on out tight ends. Of course, we may be reduced to this if we have indeed significantly weakened our wode receivers from last year.
It isn't "out of the realm of possibility" that some JAG signing will have the production of Lloyd (over 900 yards as I recall).
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So, the PLAN is to hope Amendola produces as much as Welker and some unnamed player produces as much as Lloyd?
And finding a #3 receiver isn't even worth discussing. After all, the fact that we have failed at this task repeatedly in the past should be considered irrelevant.
In your scenario, if Amendola is injured for a game or two, we might as well line Hernandez a wide receiver.
My ideal scenario would be to bring back Edelman, who could continue to offer us good ST abilities, while also (hopefully) progressing as an actual outside WR. In the meantime, he'd also be here with some experience/success in the slot as insurance. Of course he'd be lower on the depth chart just like last year--so it'd be status quo in terms of 2012 with JE.
I think I see more limitations with Llyod than some others, which may be right/wrong. Yes we'll miss the back shoulder throws, and we'll also likely sacrifice a half dozen "circus catches" or so, but we also must remember that Reche Caldwell caught 60+ balls here...with no one else in tow. If Caldwell can catch 61 balls with absolutely zero talent around him, then it shouldn't be impossible for someone else to do this WITH significant talent around him like Gronk, Hernadez, Amendola, etc. To be honest I would've rather seen Llyod kept and try to build around him, but Belichick didn't see the same opinion. The bottom line is that our WR2 will likely see a lot of targets, maybe not as many as Llyod saw last year due to the hopeful health of the TE's this year. If the new player is able to keep up the same catch rate as Llyod (approx. 54%), then we should be fine.
As far as the WR3--I think we need someone to come in and produce in their rookie year in the same way that Brandon Tate did in his first year of actual playing time. We basically need 25-30 catches, 400-500 yds, and a couple/few TD's, which is what Tate gave us. More importantly, we need someone to keep the defense honest and potentially act as a field stretcher from time to time. Tate showed us that we really don't need the world from a rookie WR, but at the same time he averaged 17+ yds a catch, which would be enormous. If we set the bar at Brandon Tate for a rookie WR, then we should be able to use that as a decent measuring stick for production from a rookie who is attempting to learn a complex offense etc. We don't need the world out of our rookie, but we do need around the same production as Tate.
I think we select a draft pick high and bring in a handful of other targets to round out the depth chart. There's a very good possibility that we will not be optimistic or happy with the selections, but it very likely will be enough to remain highly competitive on offense and could even provide an actual upgrade in total depth 1-5 (if you are like me and believe the depth was very top heavy last year).
