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FA can be a great way of adding talent without giving up any of your own, but the biggest FA signings aren't always the best.
Looking back at previous years, it's clear that big signings don’t guarantee big results. I’ve taken a look at the biggest FA signings over the past 3 years. While I have tried to be as comprehensive as possible, I probably missed a few. Also, time constraints led to using the first reported contract figures.
I've tried to get every deal for $5M or more per season. I'm not comparing the signing bonus vs. guaranteed vs. other escalators, just years and total amount. Some amounts may not be 100% accurate; the $24M might be $23.925M. For the purposes of this comparison, it's not really a deal-breaker one way or another.
I'm also excluding re-signings, as it's a different thing to evaluate your own talent and how they will fit in your systems vs. projecting a new player. And while some players have been disappointing, they could turn it around at any time. Some of the 2012 free agents in particular are snap judgments at this point, and they may eventually be worth their contracts, but first impressions count for a lot.
2012
Mario Williams: 6 years, $100M. After a slow start, Williams turned in a pretty good individual season, but it didn't translate to any more wins. Buffalo went 6-10 before signing Williams, 6-10 after.
Peyton Manning: 6 years, $96M. It's extremely rare for a top-3 QB to be available but there were a ton of extraordinary circumstances surrounding his release. Still, the Broncos took advantage and improved by 5 wins.
Vincent Jackson: 5 years, $55M. Had his best season ever after signing the big deal.
Brandon Carr: 5 years, $50.1M. Pretty solid season, but not elite as the money suggests.
Cortland Finnegan: 5 years, $50M. Like Carr, had a really solid year but not what I would call elite. I wouldn't consider either deal a bust though, but I bet both franchises hope for more moving forward.
Carl Nicks: 5 years, $47.5M. Injuries limited Nicks to 7 games so give this an incomplete grade for now.
Pierre Garcon: 5 years, $42.5M. 44 catches for 633 yards and 4 TDs doesn't seem like good value.
Eric Wright: 5 years, $37.5M. Suspended 4 games for Adderall. The suspension voided his guaranteed money so the Bucs are now considering cutting him to get out of the contract.
Ben Grubbs: 5 years, $36M. Grubbs had a pretty good year but this could also be seen as quite a deal considering he was signed to take over for Nicks, who signed for over $2M more per season.
Kamerion Wimbley: 7 years, $35M. Submitted a mediocre season with a career-low in tackles.
Laurent Robinson: 5 years, $32.5M. 24 catches for 252 yards in 7 games.
Curtis Lofton: 5 years, $27.5M. Solid starter, not elite money, pretty fair deal.
Matt Flynn: 3 years, $26M. Whoops. May end up as a better asset with time, but not much value in year 1 of this deal.
Robert Meacham: 4 years, $25.9M. 14 catches in 2012 despite being active for 15 games.
John Carlson: 5 years, $25M. This is a pretty big deal for a TE, especially one who missed the entire 2011 season due to injury. Carlson averaged 45 catches a season before the injury, but had only 8 catches in his first season with the Vikings in 14 games.
Brodrick Bunkley: 5 years, $25M. Apart from kicking a guy in the head, had a pretty solid season.
Kendall Langford: 4 years, $24M. Pretty good deal and improved on his 2011 season.
Scott Wells: 4 years, $24M. Injuries limited him to only 7 games. Incomplete.
That's 18 big free agent deals. Manning was the best of the bunch, no surprise. 8 of 18 signings could be considered good, around half. 2 more were limited with injuries, and 8 more were disappointments.
Out of this group, only Manning was a key contributor on a team that made the play-offs. So a big FA contract is hardly a guarantee of playoffs.
2011
Nnamdi Asomugha: 5 years, $60M. The top FA turned out to be the top bust as well. He won't be the only Eagle on this list.
Johnathan Joseph: 5 years, $48.75M. Excellent in his first season. Injuries slowed him a bit in his second season, but still looks like a great signing.
Paul Posluszny: 6 years, $45M. Solid contributor who often gets overlooked because of where he plays.
Sidney Rice: 5 years, $41M. Rice only played in 9 games in 2011, but had a good season in 2012, leading the team in receiving yards with 748. However, for $8M+ per season, one would hope for more production.
Barry Cofield: 6 years, $36M. Pretty solid contributor.
Zach Miller: 5 years, $34M. After getting out of Oakland, expectations were higher but Miller submitted his two worst seasons as a pro after signing with Seattle. Has yet to break 400 yards in a season as a Seahawk.
Ray Edwards: 5 years, $30M. Cut partway through his second season.
Clint Session: 5 years, $30M. Concussions unfortunately cut short his career. He was waived after his second season.
Stewart Bradley: 5 years, $30M. Cut after two disappointing seasons.
Jason Babin: 5 years, $28M. Released during the second year of his contract.
Stephen Bowen: 5 years, $27.5M. Had a great first year after signing the contract, setting career highs in tackles and sacks. Regressed in 2012 though part of that was due to injuries.
Quintin Mikell: 4 years, $27M. Solid starter for 2 years, rumours that he may need to restructure contract.
Daryn Colledge: 5 years, $27M. Solid starter.
Cullen Jenkins: 5 years, $25M. Also released after his second season.
Matt Hasselbeck: 3 years, $21M. Improved a 6-10 team to 9-7 before giving way to Jake Locker. Still a valuable mentor and back-up, though will have to take a pay-cut to stay on the team in 2013.
Danieal Manning: 4 years, $20M. Solid starter for a play-off team.
FA was a bit of a rush due to the lock-out but this wasn’t a great class. 6 of the 16 wouldn’t even make it into the 3rd year of their deals. Joseph turned out to be the best of the group. You could argue 8 of these players played up to the value of their deals, again, about half.
Only Houston made the play-offs based on their FA signings of Joseph and Manning. I'm not including Edwards in this group, as Atlanta made it in spite of him.
2010
Julius Peppers: 6 years, $91.5M. Yes, I know, you wanted him. He's been everything the Bears could have hoped for. The Bears had traded many draft picks so they really needed to sign some big FAs that year, and it worked out for them.
Dunta Robinson: 6 years, $54M. Cut after 3 years.
Karlos Dansby: 5 years, $43M. At the time, it made Dansby the highest-paid inside linebacker. Solid production but nowhere near elite like the contract suggests.
Antrel Rolle: 5 years, $37M. Rolle has made a successful transition from disappointing highly-drafted corner to Pro Bowl safety.
Antonio Bryant: 4 years, $28M. Cut before the end of training camp.
Kyle Vanden Bosch: 4 years, $26M. Despite being released after the 3rd year, not a total bust as he was brought in to help change the culture in Detroit. Had 8 sacks in his second season with the Lions, but only 15.5 in 43 games.
Aaron Kampman: 4 years, $25M. Despite a knee injury ending his 2009 season, the Jaguars gave the 30-year old a huge contract, watched him play 8 games, then get injured again. He would play a total of 11 games in two seasons before being released.
Nate Burleson: 5 years, $25M. Average receiver who probably should do better considering the attention Megatron gets. His second season was solid, but injuries derailed his 3rd season.
Joey Porter: 3 years, $24.5M. Signed to fill the void left by Dansby, Porter had a decent first season before injuries affected him. He only played 6 games in year 2, retiring after the season.
Jarvis Green: 4 years, $20M. Like Bryant, didn’t make it out of the pre-season.
The looming lockout changed the rules for free agency, resulting in over 200 players being switched to restricted instead of unrestricted. This limited activity significantly and reduced the FA class to older players, so it shouldn't be a surprise that injuries helped derail a lot of these deals.
6 of the 10 didn't last past 3 seasons, 2 of which didn’t even make it out of pre-season.
Peppers and Rolle fulfilled their end of the bargain, although only Peppers would go to the play-offs this season. The rest were disappointing for a variety of reasons, some more than others. If we generously credit Vanden Bosch for helping the culture and Dansby for being pretty solid, that’s still only 4 out of 10 contracts, again, about half.
So throwing big money at big stars hasn't guaranteed playoff success for many teams recently. Only Peppers, Joseph, and Manning have gone to the play-offs in the first year of their big deals.
16 of these 38 deals provided good value for the price, while 12 of 26 wouldn't even last past the third year of their contracts (this number may rise as many of these contracts haven't even gotten to the 3rd year yet).
So while we all love to see big free agent signings and hope we'll get the top guys in free agency, it's worth looking back to realize it doesn't guarantee much of anything really.
Looking back at previous years, it's clear that big signings don’t guarantee big results. I’ve taken a look at the biggest FA signings over the past 3 years. While I have tried to be as comprehensive as possible, I probably missed a few. Also, time constraints led to using the first reported contract figures.
I've tried to get every deal for $5M or more per season. I'm not comparing the signing bonus vs. guaranteed vs. other escalators, just years and total amount. Some amounts may not be 100% accurate; the $24M might be $23.925M. For the purposes of this comparison, it's not really a deal-breaker one way or another.
I'm also excluding re-signings, as it's a different thing to evaluate your own talent and how they will fit in your systems vs. projecting a new player. And while some players have been disappointing, they could turn it around at any time. Some of the 2012 free agents in particular are snap judgments at this point, and they may eventually be worth their contracts, but first impressions count for a lot.
2012
Mario Williams: 6 years, $100M. After a slow start, Williams turned in a pretty good individual season, but it didn't translate to any more wins. Buffalo went 6-10 before signing Williams, 6-10 after.
Peyton Manning: 6 years, $96M. It's extremely rare for a top-3 QB to be available but there were a ton of extraordinary circumstances surrounding his release. Still, the Broncos took advantage and improved by 5 wins.
Vincent Jackson: 5 years, $55M. Had his best season ever after signing the big deal.
Brandon Carr: 5 years, $50.1M. Pretty solid season, but not elite as the money suggests.
Cortland Finnegan: 5 years, $50M. Like Carr, had a really solid year but not what I would call elite. I wouldn't consider either deal a bust though, but I bet both franchises hope for more moving forward.
Carl Nicks: 5 years, $47.5M. Injuries limited Nicks to 7 games so give this an incomplete grade for now.
Pierre Garcon: 5 years, $42.5M. 44 catches for 633 yards and 4 TDs doesn't seem like good value.
Eric Wright: 5 years, $37.5M. Suspended 4 games for Adderall. The suspension voided his guaranteed money so the Bucs are now considering cutting him to get out of the contract.
Ben Grubbs: 5 years, $36M. Grubbs had a pretty good year but this could also be seen as quite a deal considering he was signed to take over for Nicks, who signed for over $2M more per season.
Kamerion Wimbley: 7 years, $35M. Submitted a mediocre season with a career-low in tackles.
Laurent Robinson: 5 years, $32.5M. 24 catches for 252 yards in 7 games.
Curtis Lofton: 5 years, $27.5M. Solid starter, not elite money, pretty fair deal.
Matt Flynn: 3 years, $26M. Whoops. May end up as a better asset with time, but not much value in year 1 of this deal.
Robert Meacham: 4 years, $25.9M. 14 catches in 2012 despite being active for 15 games.
John Carlson: 5 years, $25M. This is a pretty big deal for a TE, especially one who missed the entire 2011 season due to injury. Carlson averaged 45 catches a season before the injury, but had only 8 catches in his first season with the Vikings in 14 games.
Brodrick Bunkley: 5 years, $25M. Apart from kicking a guy in the head, had a pretty solid season.
Kendall Langford: 4 years, $24M. Pretty good deal and improved on his 2011 season.
Scott Wells: 4 years, $24M. Injuries limited him to only 7 games. Incomplete.
That's 18 big free agent deals. Manning was the best of the bunch, no surprise. 8 of 18 signings could be considered good, around half. 2 more were limited with injuries, and 8 more were disappointments.
Out of this group, only Manning was a key contributor on a team that made the play-offs. So a big FA contract is hardly a guarantee of playoffs.
2011
Nnamdi Asomugha: 5 years, $60M. The top FA turned out to be the top bust as well. He won't be the only Eagle on this list.
Johnathan Joseph: 5 years, $48.75M. Excellent in his first season. Injuries slowed him a bit in his second season, but still looks like a great signing.
Paul Posluszny: 6 years, $45M. Solid contributor who often gets overlooked because of where he plays.
Sidney Rice: 5 years, $41M. Rice only played in 9 games in 2011, but had a good season in 2012, leading the team in receiving yards with 748. However, for $8M+ per season, one would hope for more production.
Barry Cofield: 6 years, $36M. Pretty solid contributor.
Zach Miller: 5 years, $34M. After getting out of Oakland, expectations were higher but Miller submitted his two worst seasons as a pro after signing with Seattle. Has yet to break 400 yards in a season as a Seahawk.
Ray Edwards: 5 years, $30M. Cut partway through his second season.
Clint Session: 5 years, $30M. Concussions unfortunately cut short his career. He was waived after his second season.
Stewart Bradley: 5 years, $30M. Cut after two disappointing seasons.
Jason Babin: 5 years, $28M. Released during the second year of his contract.
Stephen Bowen: 5 years, $27.5M. Had a great first year after signing the contract, setting career highs in tackles and sacks. Regressed in 2012 though part of that was due to injuries.
Quintin Mikell: 4 years, $27M. Solid starter for 2 years, rumours that he may need to restructure contract.
Daryn Colledge: 5 years, $27M. Solid starter.
Cullen Jenkins: 5 years, $25M. Also released after his second season.
Matt Hasselbeck: 3 years, $21M. Improved a 6-10 team to 9-7 before giving way to Jake Locker. Still a valuable mentor and back-up, though will have to take a pay-cut to stay on the team in 2013.
Danieal Manning: 4 years, $20M. Solid starter for a play-off team.
FA was a bit of a rush due to the lock-out but this wasn’t a great class. 6 of the 16 wouldn’t even make it into the 3rd year of their deals. Joseph turned out to be the best of the group. You could argue 8 of these players played up to the value of their deals, again, about half.
Only Houston made the play-offs based on their FA signings of Joseph and Manning. I'm not including Edwards in this group, as Atlanta made it in spite of him.
2010
Julius Peppers: 6 years, $91.5M. Yes, I know, you wanted him. He's been everything the Bears could have hoped for. The Bears had traded many draft picks so they really needed to sign some big FAs that year, and it worked out for them.
Dunta Robinson: 6 years, $54M. Cut after 3 years.
Karlos Dansby: 5 years, $43M. At the time, it made Dansby the highest-paid inside linebacker. Solid production but nowhere near elite like the contract suggests.
Antrel Rolle: 5 years, $37M. Rolle has made a successful transition from disappointing highly-drafted corner to Pro Bowl safety.
Antonio Bryant: 4 years, $28M. Cut before the end of training camp.
Kyle Vanden Bosch: 4 years, $26M. Despite being released after the 3rd year, not a total bust as he was brought in to help change the culture in Detroit. Had 8 sacks in his second season with the Lions, but only 15.5 in 43 games.
Aaron Kampman: 4 years, $25M. Despite a knee injury ending his 2009 season, the Jaguars gave the 30-year old a huge contract, watched him play 8 games, then get injured again. He would play a total of 11 games in two seasons before being released.
Nate Burleson: 5 years, $25M. Average receiver who probably should do better considering the attention Megatron gets. His second season was solid, but injuries derailed his 3rd season.
Joey Porter: 3 years, $24.5M. Signed to fill the void left by Dansby, Porter had a decent first season before injuries affected him. He only played 6 games in year 2, retiring after the season.
Jarvis Green: 4 years, $20M. Like Bryant, didn’t make it out of the pre-season.
The looming lockout changed the rules for free agency, resulting in over 200 players being switched to restricted instead of unrestricted. This limited activity significantly and reduced the FA class to older players, so it shouldn't be a surprise that injuries helped derail a lot of these deals.
6 of the 10 didn't last past 3 seasons, 2 of which didn’t even make it out of pre-season.
Peppers and Rolle fulfilled their end of the bargain, although only Peppers would go to the play-offs this season. The rest were disappointing for a variety of reasons, some more than others. If we generously credit Vanden Bosch for helping the culture and Dansby for being pretty solid, that’s still only 4 out of 10 contracts, again, about half.
So throwing big money at big stars hasn't guaranteed playoff success for many teams recently. Only Peppers, Joseph, and Manning have gone to the play-offs in the first year of their big deals.
16 of these 38 deals provided good value for the price, while 12 of 26 wouldn't even last past the third year of their contracts (this number may rise as many of these contracts haven't even gotten to the 3rd year yet).
So while we all love to see big free agent signings and hope we'll get the top guys in free agency, it's worth looking back to realize it doesn't guarantee much of anything really.
