Predict Pats biggest FA signing 2013

[ATippett56]

Your arguments are really weak here. You've not shown anything to back up the notion that Welker should be happy with a $5 million per year cut.

It's ludicrous to suggest that Wes Welker is worth $39 million for three years when Randy Moss, at the age of 31, only received $27 million for three years.

 

[Deus Irae]

It's ludicrous to suggest that Wes Welker is worth $39 million for three years when Randy Moss, at the age of 31, only received $27 million for three years.

1.) I didn't suggest that.

2.) The Moss deal from 5 years ago is largely irrelevant, unless you're using it as a salary basement. The cap will be about $13 million higher in 2013 than it was in 2007, and the Franchise tag cost for Welker is more than $11 million.

3.) You've shown nothing to make your argument seem at all reasonable.

 

[ATippett56]

1.) I didn't suggest that.

Put forth your contract offer to Wes Welker: term (number of years), contract value, signing bonus.

2.) The Moss deal from 5 years ago is irrelevant, unless you're using it as a salary basement.

The Moss deal is not irrelevant since the New England Patriots adjusted salary cap for the 2008 NFL Season was $121.1 million. The 2013 NFL salary cap is projected to be around $121 million.

3.) You've shown nothing to make your argument seem at all reasonable.

You've shown nothing in your argument that makes sense in a flat salary cap environment.

 

[Deus Irae]

Put forth your contract offer to Wes Welker: term (number of years), contract value, signing bonus.

I've done that elsewhere. Here, I'm trying to discuss yours.

The Moss deal is not irrelevant since the New England Patriots adjusted salary cap for the 2008 NFL Season was $121.1 million. The 2013 NFL salary cap is projected to be around $121 million.

The cap was 13 million dollars lower that year. What it was specific to one team is completely irrelevant. Moss' contract is only relevant to Welker's if the team is conceding that it's a basement offer. Since the team won't do that, it's a meaningless deal about 6 years prior to when this one would get worked out.

You've shown nothing in your argument that makes sense in a flat salary cap environment.

Now you're just trying to flip the discussion. My only "argument" has been that you haven't made a case which would make your numbers reasonable given Welker's Franchise tag number, and that's a perfectly sensible argument. Your argument isn't really based on the reality of the situation, which is why you haven't been able to adequately defend it.

 

[ATippett56]

The cap was 13 million dollars lower that year.

The New England Patriots adjusted salary cap was $121,125,078 for the 2008 NFL Season.

Miguel's UNOFFICIAL 2008 Patriots Salary Cap Information Page

Moss' contract is only relevant to Welker's if the team is conceding that it's a basement offer.

A three year contract for Wes Welker valued at $24 million with a $12 million signing bonus is not a basement offer, especially considering the contract Reggie Wayne signed in March 2012.

Reggie Wayne - Indianapolis Colts - 2012 Player Profile - Rotoworld.com

3/13/2012: Signed a three-year, $17.5 million contract. The deal included a $7.5 million signing bonus. 2012: $1 million, 2013: $5 million, 2014: $4 million, 2015: Free Agent

At the age of 33, Reggie Wayne signed a three year $17.5 million contract with a $7.5 million signing bonus.

 

[supafly]

A three year contract for Wes Welker valued at $24 million with a $12 million signing bonus is not a basement offer, especially considering the contract Reggie Wayne signed in March 2012.

Reggie Wayne - Indianapolis Colts - 2012 Player Profile - Rotoworld.com



At the age of 33, Reggie Wayne signed a three year $17.5 million contract with a $7.5 million signing bonus.

For a guy that has produced 100+ catches the majority of the time that he's been here it may look like quite a slap in the face to give him LESS guaranteed money than he was offered this past year, since he turned down the 16 million guaranteed in the offseason. That said, my 2 year/20 million dollar guesstimate also included less at 15 million guaranteed, but I was simply trying to come up with a shorter term deal seeing as how the front office hasn't seemed too comfortable giving anything more than that.

Either way you look at it, both sides are going to have to meet in the middle somewhere or Welker is very likely to go elsewhere. I don't think that 12 million guaranteed would do it though, especially over 3 years. As some have pointed out, he's likely to get that in one year with the franchise tag alone. This was also the reason that some/many did not like my 2/20 deal with 15 million guaranteed.

I was just trying to come up with something that could be considered "fair" by both sides, since it would be a raise to what they offered last year and pretty much equal in the guaranteed money (symbolizing the ability to meet somewhere in the middle on the Patriots end).

It would also be of the shorter term pact that it seemed like the team was looking for, although they may have changed their stance in the meantime (symbolizing the ability to meet in the middle on Welker's end).

 

[ATippett56]

For a guy that has produced 100+ catches the majority of the time that he's been here it may look like quite a slap in the face to give him LESS guaranteed money than he was offered this past year, since he turned down the 16 million guaranteed in the offseason. That said, my 2 year/20 million dollar guesstimate also included less at 15 million guaranteed, but I was simply trying to come up with a shorter term deal seeing as how the front office hasn't seemed too comfortable giving anything more than that.

Either way you look at it, both sides are going to have to meet in the middle somewhere or Welker is very likely to go elsewhere. I don't think that 12 million guaranteed would do it though, especially over 3 years. As some have pointed out, he's likely to get that in one year with the franchise tag alone. This was also the reason that some/many did not like my 2/20 deal with 15 million guaranteed.

I was just trying to come up with something that could be considered "fair" by both sides, since it would be a raise to what they offered last year and pretty much equal in the guaranteed money (symbolizing the ability to meet somewhere in the middle on the Patriots end).

It would also be of the shorter term pact that it seemed like the team was looking for, although they may have changed their stance in the meantime (symbolizing the ability to meet in the middle on Welker's end).

If the salary cap will be flat or roughly flat for the next three years, players' contracts will need to be adjusted accordingly.

 

[supafly]

If the salary cap will be flat or roughly flat for the next three years, players' contracts will need to be adjusted accordingly.

I think that's a fine point, and one that Belichick and the Krafts seem to have been hinting towards in the past couple of seasons, despite the thought by so many that the cap would spike significantly at the end of next season.

I do think they are certainly taking that into consideration, and that may indeed by the ultimate decision that is made in allowing Welker to walk away, much to the dismay of all of us.

The problem is that while needing to remain conservative with your cap spending for now + the immediate future, there are plenty of other teams that are willing to pay more and have a different numbers juggling approach. At the end of the day Wes Welker should be worth approximately 9-10 million a year based on his production and toughness.

If the Pats aren't willing to pay that (whether it's a 2 year deal, or a 3 year deal), then there will certainly be many other teams that are willing, and that's our #1 problem in regards to this matter.

 

[ATippett56]

I was just trying to come up with something that could be considered "fair" by both sides, since it would be a raise to what they offered last year and pretty much equal in the guaranteed money (symbolizing the ability to meet somewhere in the middle on the Patriots end).

Randy Moss, at the age of 31, received a $27 million dollar contract in 2008 when the New England Patriots adjusted salary cap for that season was $121.1 million. A sense of proportionality needs to be considered, taking account the age of the player, with regard to a projected salary cap of $121 million for the 2013 NFL Season.

Wait until March 2013 when a team, such as the Indianapolis Colts with $40 million plus in salary cap space, offers cornerback Aqib Talib a 5 year $50 million contract.

 

[ATippett56]

If the Pats aren't willing to pay that (whether it's a 2 year deal, or a 3 year deal), then there will certainly be many other teams that are willing, and that's our #1 problem in regards to this matter.

If the New England Patriots aren't willing to give Wes Welker a multi-year contract, Wes Welker just may get the franchise tag once again.

 

[supafly]

Randy Moss, at the age of 31, received a $27 million dollar contract in 2008 when the New England Patriots adjusted salary cap for that season was $121.1 million. A sense of proportionality needs to be considered, taking account the age of the player, with regard to a projected salary cap of $121 million for the 2013 NFL Season.

Wait until March 2013 when a team, such as the Indianapolis Colts with $40 million plus in salary cap space, offers cornerback Aqib Talib a 5 year $50 million contract.

I couldn't imagine anyone giving him more than about 8 million per, I think that's his ceiling based on some of his past mistakes and off-field concerns. If the Patriots come close to offering him anything in the likes of the Bodden deal from 2009 + a little interest for the positional uprise, I think he should be safe. I have a hard time imagining Belichick not being somewhat prepared for this decision prior to giving up yet another precious draft pick that leaves the cupboard totally bare in rounds 4, 5, and 6.

The top tier free agents in the likes of Brandon Carr and Cortland Finnegan received 5/50 deals last year. Aqib Talib may have made a positive impact here, but he isn't on their level, nor will anyone else think so.

He should be looking at the second tier of CB money though, I'd agree with that. Hopefully it never gets that far, and we strike a deal first.

 

[Deus Irae]

The New England Patriots adjusted salary cap was $121,125,078 for the 2008 NFL Season.

Miguel's UNOFFICIAL 2008 Patriots Salary Cap Information Page

A three year contract for Wes Welker valued at $24 million with a $12 million signing bonus is not a basement offer, especially considering the contract Reggie Wayne signed in March 2012.

Reggie Wayne - Indianapolis Colts - 2012 Player Profile - Rotoworld.com



At the age of 33, Reggie Wayne signed a three year $17.5 million contract with a $7.5 million signing bonus.

1.) Yes, that is a basement offer because of the amount due on any Franchise tag, and Wayne's deal has nothing to do with it.

2.) You keep trying to use irrelevant arguments. Wayne was older and coming off of a down year, and the 2007 NFL cap was $13 million dollars less than the expected 2013 NFL cap. That cap isn't going to change no matter how often you cite to the Patriots specific adjusted cap as if it's meaningful, because it's not.

 

[ATippett56]

I couldn't imagine anyone giving him more than about 8 million per, I think that's his ceiling based on some of his past mistakes and off-field concerns. If the Patriots come close to offering him anything in the likes of the Bodden deal from 2009 + a little interest for the positional uprise, I think he should be safe. I have a hard time imagining Belichick not being somewhat prepared for this decision prior to giving up yet another precious draft pick that leaves the cupboard totally bare in rounds 4, 5, and 6.

The top tier free agents in the likes of Brandon Carr and Cortland Finnegan received 5/50 deals last year. Aqib Talib may have made a positive impact here, but he isn't on their level, nor will anyone else think so.

He should be looking at the second tier of CB money though, I'd agree with that. Hopefully it never gets that far, and we strike a deal first.

So you undersell Aqib Talib compared to the market value for 27 year old cornerbacks yet oversell Wes Welker compared to the market value for 32 year old wide receivers.

As for personal conduct, Vincent Jackson is one strike away from a year long ban based on his past indiscretions. Of course, that did not deter the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from signing the troubled wide receiver to a 5 year $55.5 million contract.

Vincent Jackson - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 2012 Player Profile - Rotoworld.com

3/13/2012: Signed a five-year, $55,555,555 contract. The deal contains $26 million guaranteed, including a $2 million first-year reporting bonus and all of Jackson's first two base salaries. 2012: $11 million (+ $12.16 million "signing" bonus), 2013: $840,000, 2014: $10 million, 2015: $9,777,777, 2016: $9,777,778, 2017: Free Agent

 

[supafly]

So you undersell Aqib Talib compared to the market value for 27 year old cornerbacks yet oversell Wes Welker compared to the market value for 32 year old wide receivers.

As for personal conduct, Vincent Jackson is one strike away from a year long ban based on his past indiscretions. Of course, that did not deter the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from signing the troubled wide receiver to a 5 year $55.5 million contract.

Vincent Jackson - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 2012 Player Profile - Rotoworld.com

Let's keep things in perspective here...

VJax has been a highly sought after younger WR for a couple years now.

Aqib Talib was likely going to be outright cut....

I'm not saying that there won't be a nice 2nd tier market for a CB like Talib in FA, but I think it's QUITE a stretch to compare him to the top #1 and #2 CB free agents of last year in Carr and Finnegan, both who received deals of 5/50 that you propose.

Wes Welker is a totally different player altogether too. He has proven to be a 100+ catch guy almost every single season, and has been highly sought after too. He would certainly deserve a pact that pays an average of 9-10 million dollars. Comparing him to someone like A.Talib is borderline silly to me, although I do respect your opinion.

If the CB market wasn't so overpriced, we wouldn't even be saying the names "Talib" and "Welker" in the same sentence. We shouldn't be anyway, and that's taking into acct the fact that it's overpriced.

 

[ATippett56]

2.) You keep trying to use irrelevant arguments. Wayne was older and coming off of a down year, and the 2007 NFL cap was $13 million dollars less than the expected 2013 NFL cap. That cap isn't going to change no matter how often you cite to the Patriots specific adjusted cap as if it's meaningful, because it's not.

Randy Moss did not sign his three year contract with the New England Patriots until calendar year 2008.

Miguel's UNOFFICIAL 2008 Patriots Salary Cap Footnotes and Documentation Page

Randy Moss

March, 2008 update Tim DiPiero, the agent for Randy Moss, emailed the following to some members of the media - "I am pleased to confirm that Randy Moss has signed a three year contract with the New England Patriots. The contract calls for a total payout of $27 million with $15 million guaranteed, $12 million of which is in the form of a signing bonus. Randy is grateful to Mr. Kraft, Coach Belichick and Scott Pioli for agreeing to the terms of this contract. Randy was serious about wanting to stay. Because of Randy's record-breaking year, the interest in him was very high. Randy took less than he could have to rejoin his teammates.”

March 4, 2008 update Mike Reiss blogged on 3/4 - "Here are some more details on Randy Moss's contract with the Patriots:"

Base salaries:

• 2008: $1.9 million
• 2009: $6.4 million
• 2010: $6.4 million

Salary cap charges:

• 2008: $6 million
• 2009: $10.5 million
• 2010: $10.5 million

 

[Deus Irae]

Randy Moss did not sign his three year contract with the New England Patriots until calendar year 2008.

I know when he signed it. It was after the 2007 season. Welker will be signing with someone after the 2012 season. It's a 5 year and $13 million dollar cap difference from those times and, even if you argue using the 2008/2013 projected numbers, it's still going to be about $5-$6 million more (and adding the Miguel stuff is yet another example of you adding irrelevant information rather than dealing with the problems of your argument). You seem to like ignoring that, just as you like ignoring the fact that your offer would be another financial slap to Welker. This is a problem of the Patriots making and, like the Mankins situation and several others, it's a problem that never had to happen. If they'd worked out a fair deal in either of the past 2 seasons, age wouldn't be an issue, and Welker would be getting less money on his contract. This territory was well worn last year, and it doesn't need to be worked over again.

Why do you think Patriots players should eat crap and pretend it's caviar? Are you incapable of running market numbers, or do you think there's some sort of 40% surcharge for playing in New England?

 

[ATippett56]

1.) Yes, that is a basement offer because of the amount due on any Franchise tag, and Wayne's deal has nothing to do with it.

Reggie Wayne's contract is relevant to determine the market value of 30+ year old wide receivers in an era with a salary cap of $121 million.

2.) Wayne was older and coming off of a down year.

Hence, I offered the same signing bonus as Randy Moss received in 2008 with his 3 year $27 million dollar contract. In addition, I would offer Wes Welker $3 million less, considering that Welker will be one year older than Moss at the time of a contract renewal, and taking into account an era of a flat salary cap.

 

[Deus Irae]

Reggie Wayne's contract is relevant to determine the market value of 30+ year old wide receivers in an era with a salary cap of $121 million.

Again, and for the last time, since you're clearly just trying to spin this as you have no basis for your own argument.....

Reggie Wayne plays at about 3 years older, meaning this deal will come with Welker still playing at 2 years younger than Wayne was this year, and Wayne was coming off his worst season since the early 2000s. His contract is irrelevant.

Hence, I offered the same signing bonus as Randy Moss received in 2008 with his 3 year $27 million dollar contract. In addition, I would offer Wes Welker $3 million less, considering that Welker will be one year older than Moss at the time of a contract renewal, and taking into account an era of a flat salary cap.

You offered crap. You know you offered crap. Your arguments on cap/contracts were lousy last year, and they're starting off every bit as bad this year. Either accept that there's an actual, albeit limited, market for the services of NFL players, or don't bother with the numbers, because you're nowhere near reasonable. And, I'll get it in now: Unless Brady declines drastically, he's not playing his next contract for $3 million a year, either.

 

[ATippett56]

even if you argue using the 2008/2013 projected numbers, it's still going to be about $5-$6 million more.

2008 NFL Salary Cap - $116,769,000 (non adjusted)

2013 NFL Salary Cap - $121,000,000 (non adjusted)

Difference - $4,231,000

Percent Difference - 3.6%

Wes Welker 2012 Receiving Yards to date extrapolated to 16 games

1260 yards X 16/15 = 1344 yards

Randy Moss 2007 Receiving Yards

1493 yards

$27 million contract X 1344/1493 X 1.036 X 31/32 = $24.4 million contract

 

[Deus Irae]

2008 NFL Salary Cap - $116,769,000 (non adjusted)

2013 NFL Salary Cap - $121,000,000 (non adjusted)

Difference - $4,231,000

Percent Difference - 3.6%

Wes Welker 2012 Receiving Yards to date extrapolated to 16 games

1260 yards X 16/15 = 1344 yards

Randy Moss 2007 Receiving Yards

1493 yards

$27 million contract X 1344/1493 X 1.036 X 31/32 = $24.4 million contract

There is currently no official 2013 salary cap figure, so you're making up numbers, again. To make matters worse, you're cherry picking Welker numbers now, and that's just stupid. I could just use that same argument, apply receptions instead of yards, and get an enormous pay raise for Welker. This is another perfect example of you making really lousy arguments in support of an unreasonable position.