Running the table? I wouldn't bet on it. Lower your expectations.

[PatriotSeven]

Wait. You thought there was a simple equation that could reflect exactly what today's score would be based on the # rank O vs D from previous games?

What year did you start watching football?

Simple equation? No.

But it was an expected and predictable outcome.

Top defenses frequently make top offenses score fewer points.

Better defenses frequently make bad offenses score even fewer points.

Are you going to sit here and tell me this isn't the case?

 

[mayoclinic]

The point is the 49ers and Texans defense shouldn't have a problem doing the same. The question is can our defense stop those offenses? Miami was ranked 26th. We're about to face 2 better defenses and the #2 offense in Houston.

Yup, we're doomed against Houston and SF. Never mind that Houston put up all of 24 points today. And that potent new SF offense under Colin Kaepernick? 13 points in 5 quarters against the Rams in an OT loss.

We're doomed.

 

[PatsDeb]

Don't mean to poo poo our win here, but this was the 10th best scoring defense in the NFL and they managed to keep us under 24 points.

It's a good thing Miami's offense sucks. The next 2 games will be no joke.

Well. allow me to poo poo you. That was a great win by the Pats today. So many times recently when we run into a tough defense and a rookie QB we don't know well, Brady falls apart, the D falls apart and we lose. It's been like if we can't have a blowout, we can't win. Today Brady threw an uncharacteristic INT and was getting killed; the o-line was a mess; we couldn't get the running game going. We didn't panic. We kept at it, and actually slowed the game down and changed up what we were doing. The D held tough and forced Tannehill into mistakes. And We WON, convincingly, even though the score suggested otherwise. I think we are in fine shape to win the next two too. I'm still not lowering my expectations. Go ahead and lower yours!

 

[jah]

Bring on the night games! These next 2 weeks will tell us a lot about how the team can stand up to good teams--enough beating up on the bad ones.

 

[PatriotSeven]

Yup, we're doomed against Houston and SF. Never mind that Houston put up all of 24 points today. And that potent new SF offense under Colin Kaepernick? 13 points in 5 quarters against the Rams in an OT loss.

We're doomed.

Not saying we are doomed but Houston still won by 2 touchdowns even though they only scored 24 points. Their defense still kept the Titans to 10 points. Still a very dominant win over a bad team.

You guys are right....we are the only team whose stats describe how good we are. We are the only team who can actually be considered a top 10 team. All those other teams are flukes, fakes, overrated and really just as good as Miami, Jets and Rams...



Give me a break. We're about to face the 2 toughest teams we have faced this season. Give them some respect.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

Not saying we are doomed but Houston still won by 2 touchdowns even though they only scored 24 points. Their defense still kept the Titans to 10 points. Still a very dominant win over a bad team.

You guys are right....we are the only team whose stats describe how good we are. We are the only team who can actually be considered a top 10 team. All those other teams are flukes, fakes, overrated and really just as good as Miami, Jets and Rams...



Give me a break. We're about to face the 2 toughest teams we have faced this season. Give them some respect.

No ones not giving them any respect, you seem to think the Pats arent good enough to beat those teams, most of us think they can beat any team. Im not sure how where offenses and defenses rank can predict an outcome of a game, if the Pats play well and Brady has a good game we can run the table all the way to the super bowl.

 

[PatriotSeven]

No ones not giving them any respect, you seem to think the Pats arent good enough to beat those teams, most of us think they can beat any team. Im not sure how where offenses and defenses rank can predict an outcome of a game, if the Pats play well and Brady has a good game we can run the table all the way to the super bowl.

I didn't say we are not good enough. I really love our toughness this year even more than last year and welcome the fact we get to test ourselves before the playoffs.

I just don't think we can consider ourselves better than them until we beat them and I believe their D can shut our offense down or slow us down significantly. That's all.

 

[livinginthe past]

I didn't say we are not good enough. I really love our toughness this year even more than last year and welcome the fact we get to test ourselves before the playoffs.

I just don't think we can consider ourselves better than them until we beat them and I believe their D can shut our offense down or slow us down significantly. That's all.

From this point of view you appear to have helped generate 15 pages of crap to inform us of something incredibly inane.

Your belief that their D can shut down our offense is just as unproven as the claim that we will beat them easily.

 

[PatriotSeven]

From this point of view you appear to have helped generate 15 pages of crap to inform us of something incredibly inane.

Your belief that their D can shut down our offense is just as unproven as the claim that we will beat them easily.

My belief is based on track record, statistics and how we have performed against other top 10 defenses. We won 1-4 and 3 of the 4 managed to keep us under 24 points per game.

We did absolutely nothing today to show that won't be the case against those defenses as well.

The only thing you and a couple of others have repeatedly stated is nothing but personal opinion of how I am wrong. You have used no evidence or any sort of solid facts to refute any of the facts.

I am 100% sure your only argument is "we are the Patriots therefore we are better and nothing else matter".

 

[Lansdowne]

Very happy the Pats won the division. It would be cruel if they were the first team to win their division yet don't even get a first round bye. Need the football gods to cooperate at this point for the bye to happen.

 

[patsfan13]

Not sure what that has to do with the fact they did a pretty good job neutralizing our 37ppg offense. It's expected they would allow more than their average when facing the #1 offense. But 2.5 points over that average, doesn't give me a whole lot of confidence.

The point is the 49ers and Texans defense shouldn't have a problem doing the same. The question is can our defense stop those offenses? Miami was ranked 26th. We're about to face 2 better defenses and the #2 offense in Houston.

I take it you haven't seen the Pats play a lot in Miami in Dec over the past 45 years, HINT it usually isn't a blowout.

I would also point out that the roster is pretty depleted currently.

 

[NYCPatsFan]

Man, are you that miserable that you need to dig up your old thread to preen that we won by just seven points?

You keep harping so much about stats and ignore the intangibles and history, such as how tough division games are, how the Fins always play us tough in Miami, our OL situation today etc.

Wish you had told the Gints during their last two SBs that they could not win based on their stats and convinced them to mail it in.

And oh, most of us DO give more respect to the Texans than what you think.

Just because you lowered your expectations, it doesn't mean that the rest of us should follow suit as you arrogantly order us to in your title.

 

[PatriotSeven]

I take it you haven't seen the Pats play a lot in Miami in Dec over the past 45 years, HINT it usually isn't a blowout.

I would also point out that the roster is pretty depleted currently.

Well you took it wrong because I have watched this match up plenty of times. You keep missing that this is not the only team with a top 10 defense that gave us issues this year. Divisional foe or otherwise, we have struggled against all teams with good defenses.

You're using a meaningless historical stat as an excuse to refute the fact that this game turned out like what the numbers and previous match ups, this year, predicted. How this team played this year against top defenses matters more than how we play different Miami teams each year over the past 45 years.

But if you want to go into it, does this "December stat" end exactly on December 31st? Because I remember a 38-7 blowout on January 2nd 2011. But maybe when New Years day comes around some switch triggers which screws up your entire premise....And I suppose the 48-28 blowout in 2008 doesn't count either because it was November 23rd one week before this magic "December trend". But then I also remember a 28-7 blowout in 2007 and that was on December 23rd. And I can also remember them blowing us out 21-0 on December 10th 2006.

Keep clinging to that meaningless stat of completely different teams over completely different eras in some random month of the NFL as if it actually means anything.

And the fact that we are depleted is one reason why I consider us an underdog to the Texans.

 

[hambone1818]

Missing Gronk and having a depleted O-line had as much to do with the poor offensive showing as anything. I mean, that was the Hernandez and Welker show for 3 quarters and you can't beat a good defense with two weapons.

Gronk won't be back for either Houston or SF, and the line may still be makeshift. But the team is in the playoffs and could sneak in for a bye if things break their way. I'm less concerned about the outcome of these two weeks than seeing the defense continue to improve and get the team healthy.

 

[MassPats38]

And the fact that we are depleted is one reason why I consider us an underdog to the Texans.

Do you consider the Thanksgiving game with the Texans a win or loss given the blown call? And have you considered that the vaunted Texans are keeping teams to about 3 ppg fewer than the Pats D? Statistics are great, until they do not support your argument that somehow a 'realistic' view is the Pats lose two more games. Given the effect of injuries (Chicago is not a 'good' team right now, having lost 3 of its last 4), rookie development and simple timing (the Giants were not a good team after beating the Niners and before beating the Packers), it is difficult to compare team schedules and opponents. Your attempts at comparative difficulties of opponents using selected statistics amounts to no more than cherrypicking to justify your position. It is no more realistic to claim 2 losses than it is to claim 0 losses. And the notion that the Pats score fewer points against good defenses than bad defense is no more insightful than predicting a sun rise. You may also want to factor in the fact the defense has improved since the earlier games in the season when characterizing the Pats as an underdog at home.

Fans and critics were doing the same Pats "haven't beaten good teams" last year, until the Pats beat the good teams in the playoffs. You resurrected this thread to cast aspersions at Miami, after acknowledging in the beginning of your thread that Miami would be a tough out. I expect if the Pats beat the Texans and Niners you will acknowledge your 'realistic' view was more a 'pessimistic' view when you eat crow for predicting otherwise. Frankly, there are enough so-called 'realists' on the site after losses that we don't want for that type of opinion after wins.

 

[PatriotSeven]

Do you consider the Thanksgiving game with the Texans a win or loss given the blown call? And have you considered that the vaunted Texans are keeping teams to about 3 ppg fewer than the Pats D? Statistics are great, until they do not support your argument that somehow a 'realistic' view is the Pats lose two more games. Given the effect of injuries (Chicago is not a 'good' team right now, having lost 3 of its last 4), rookie development and simple timing (the Giants were not a good team after beating the Niners and before beating the Packers), it is difficult to compare team schedules and opponents. Your attempts at comparative difficulties of opponents using selected statistics amounts to no more than cherrypicking to justify your position. It is no more realistic to claim 2 losses than it is to claim 0 losses. And the notion that the Pats score fewer points against good defenses than bad defense is no more insightful than predicting a sun rise. You may also want to factor in the fact the defense has improved since the earlier games in the season when characterizing the Pats as an underdog at home.

Fans and critics were doing the same Pats "haven't beaten good teams" last year, until the Pats beat the good teams in the playoffs. You resurrected this thread to cast aspersions at Miami, after acknowledging in the beginning of your thread that Miami would be a tough out. I expect if the Pats beat the Texans and Niners you will acknowledge your 'realistic' view was more a 'pessimistic' view when you eat crow for predicting otherwise. Frankly, there are enough so-called 'realists' on the site after losses that we don't want for that type of opinion after wins.

I consider it a win, because the touchdown you are pointing to happened in the 3rd quarter. We would have never known how the game would have unfolded had the touchdown not counted.

Also, considering we lost all of our games by 3 points or less, do you really want to take the position that the Texans keeping their opponents to only 3 points per game fewer than ours is not a big deal? If our D did that, we might be undefeated and we wouldn't be having that debate. Texans, just like all those other teams, only have to win by 1 point or more to beat us too.

Not to mention, you allude to me using selective stats, yet you don't even mention they also faced better offenses overall and the fact that within those averages it includes a 42-24 blowout loss to Green Bay which is clearly an anomaly in their trend which skews those averages.

I have seen plenty of arguments similar to yours that try to discount pretty reliable stats, followed by much more meaningless subjective explanations that try to explain away another team's success, while ignoring that the same things could have been said about us.

And while fans and critics were using the same line last year, in a large portion, they were right. We didn't, with Baltimore being the only real team we faced on our way to the Superbowl and we all know what happened. In fact I remember a bunch of people here pointing to the Miami game last year as well as some sort of "good measuring stick" for us going into the playoffs.

However, I will say this much, when everyone on this board was pointing fingers at the defense last year, and how it was the worst in the NFL, go back and check my posts and see what I had to say. I was hardly pessimistic and I didn't believe the typical numbers represented what our defense was capable of nor was I afraid they would be the reason we lose going into the playoffs. I also don't believe the best team won and I stand firmly by that. Just like I don't think it's a given that the better team will win next weekend even if I believe the numbers show Texas to be that team.

Despite what you think, I'm not here to rain on any parades or to be pessimistic. I'm a big time supporter of this team, I love their chances this year and believe in them quite a bit more than you think.

In fact, your point about fans saying the same thing last year, was in large part, the most important point of this post. I'm glad that this won't be the case going into the playoffs this year. We will know where we stand, win or lose, the next two games.

If we get exposed, which I believe is a strong possibility over the next 2 weeks, it gives us an opportunity to better analyze, address and fix our problems before we play the games that matter most.

 

[supafly]

And the fact that we are depleted is one reason why I consider us an underdog to the Texans.

I'm not sure if you necessarily should consider us an underdog against the Texans....

The early line out of Las Vegas has New England favored by 4 1/2 pts.

While I don't think I'd ever give those points in a million years, I do expect this team to play very competitively next Monday night, with a shot to win like any other game. I also expect the line to drop significantly by next Monday night, down to 2 or so, but we'll still be favored. I'd have no problem giving anything up to a FG.

Now "running the table?" I personally don't see it myself, but I certainly wouldn't count them out or be surprised if it did happen either. I am assuming that we lose one of the games to HOU/SF myself. We'll have to see how they come out and play next Monday night as we'll know soon enough.

We need to get some better production out of the passing game in my opinion, as we can't go to Welker and Hernandez every play like today. Llyod was pretty much a ghost today, I couldn't tell from the initial TV broadcast if it was necessarily something that they were doing to limit him, or whether we simply were using the middle of the field more etc?

With Edelman gone (not that he was producing much offensively) and Gronk out still, someone else like Fells needs to step up and offer another option. We can beat the Miami's of the world that way, but not teams like HOU and SF. We need more options for Brady to throw to, as he seemed limited at times, and may have also been the cause for at least one/two sacks. Then again, if Llyod is able to be incorporated more into the mix like in the past games, then there isn't nearly as much of a problem.

I don't see them being able to run the ball as effectively at all against those big fronts, and the plan wil likely be to attack via the air more anyway, as both DET and JAX did that well. I wonder who will come in as a depth WR this week?

 

[VJCPatriot]

VJCPatriot, you had three poor judgement calls on one play. :bricks:
Furthermore, suggesting I am a pessimist based on how much interaction you have had with me tells me that you are fast to judge people which is usually a sign of arrogance (not a rare commodity nowadays). I'm not a blind homer, but that doesn't make me a pessimist.

1. You're the same two guys enthusiastically predicting that the 49ers will put up a '50 burger' on the Pats therefore there is no way for them to win the game.

If Kaepernick can put up 32 on the Bears, then he can definitely put a 50-burger on us in his best day.

Furthermore there is no evidence that Kapernick is capable of, as you put it, definitely putting up a '50-burger' as you claim. His offense, not just Kaepernick alone, put up 30 against the Bears (2 from a safety are not countable for the offense), scored 31 points, in a dome vs the Saints and a measly 13 points vs the Rams in OT. We don't even know if Kaepernick is the right choice over Alex Smith right now, just that he has a higher ceiling.

2. Furthermore the entire premise of the thread title by OP is Lower your expectations.

3. You guys harp only on the Pats weaknesses while failing to address their strengths and also ignoring the weaknesses of the other contenders - 49ers, Texans, etc.. That's not avoiding 'homerism' it's known as pessimism.

Definition of PESSIMISM according to Merriam-Webster.com:

an inclination to emphasize adverse aspects, conditions, and possibilities or to expect the worst possible outcome

4. If you can't handle commentary, try not posting in a message forum. People are free to interpet what you say based on what you typed.

5. There's no poor judgment here, just too thin a skin on your part. If you don't want people to call you on the pity party, don't start/propogate any entire thread based on that entire concept.

6. I know that there are some people, sometimes known as 'negative nancies', who actually enjoy bringing out the negatives of the game and the team, rather than discussing the positive points. That's fine if that's your thing, just don't get offended when you get called on it. Other fans actually enjoy winning, 6 wins in a row and counting, and recognize that this team is pretty damn good.

7. I've never claimed that the Pats are invincible or that the Texans and 49ers don't deserve respect. Rather, I don't see why we have to live in fear of them and 'lower our expectations' just because a couple of pessimists decided to join a thread about it.

8. The Patriots can compete with ANY team in this league. You talk about potential, how about actual production? The Pats showed they can annhilate a team to the tune of 59 points when all three units fire on all cylinders. How about the fact that no team can hang with them when they bring their A game to the table?

9. Running the table is entirely possible for this team, but not terribly important. It would be a great sign, but a lot of Superbowl winners have 'backed into' the playoffs and still won it all.

2011 Giants. 3-3 to end the season, 3-5 in the second half.
2010 Packers. 3-3 to end the season.
2009 Saints. 3-3 to end the season, including 3 straight losses to close it out.

10. No offense, but I give this thread a 1/5 stars. There will be some real football to talk about instead of meaningless predictions after the Pats have gone through the 49ers and Texans. I think the challenge will be good for them to go through regardless of the outcome. There's some great football ahead of us!

 

[Avenger]

I'm not sure if you necessarily should consider us an underdog against the Texans....

The early line out of Las Vegas has New England favored by 4 1/2 pts.

While I don't think I'd ever give those points in a million years, I do expect this team to play very competitively next Monday night, with a shot to win like any other game. I also expect the line to drop significantly by next Monday night, down to 2 or so, but we'll still be favored. I'd have no problem giving anything up to a FG.

Now "running the table?" I personally don't see it myself, but I certainly wouldn't count them out or be surprised if it did happen either. I am assuming that we lose one of the games to HOU/SF myself. We'll have to see how they come out and play next Monday night as we'll know soon enough.

We need to get some better production out of the passing game in my opinion, as we can't go to Welker and Hernandez every play like today. Llyod was pretty much a ghost today, I couldn't tell from the initial TV broadcast if it was necessarily something that they were doing to limit him, or whether we simply were using the middle of the field more etc?

With Edelman gone (not that he was producing much offensively) and Gronk out still, someone else like Fells needs to step up and offer another option. We can beat the Miami's of the world that way, but not teams like HOU and SF. We need more options for Brady to throw to, as he seemed limited at times, and may have also been the cause for at least one/two sacks. Then again, if Llyod is able to be incorporated more into the mix like in the past games, then there isn't nearly as much of a problem.

I don't see them being able to run the ball as effectively at all against those big fronts, and the plan wil likely be to attack via the air more anyway, as both DET and JAX did that well. I wonder who will come in as a depth WR this week?

Edelman has been on fire the last few weeks.

 

[supafly]

Edelman has been on fire the last few weeks.

Well he's been on fire in the special teams category, and has certainly given them a boost offensively, but I hardly doubt that they'll be hurting that much without his offensive production.

He did have a nice TD last week vs the Jets, but he had 2 catches overall in that game, and 1 this week.

I love Edelman, and I think that he has offered them a boost offensively that will be missed, but he rarely sees many opportunities at receptions. I'd much rather have him in there, but that isn't going to be an option. Let's hope that he can come back for the playoffs.