It Looks Like No Long term Deal between Pats and Welker

[Deus Irae]

I see. Your position is that defenses can't contain Welker and have never demonstrated that while I have. Your counter-arguement sucks because you have zero data to support it.

Given that what you claim to be my position is not my position, I don't expect that I've supplied data to support that position.

Prove this. Watch the game film and count how many times WW was chipped comming off the line and faced coverage above him. I'm certain TB has made some bad throws, the line did a crappy job and the opposing D made great plays. You are implying that WW is never at fault or not succeptible to a scheme or player containing or limiting his effectiveness which is absolutely ridiculous. I never knew WW had a red cape with an "S" on it....

WW didn't play in the Ravens game in question, so I have no idea how you think he was chipped coming off the line.

It sure does. I never implied that it was all WWs fault. I have implied that in the playoffs, he is not as productive.

Actually, you've flat out stated it. What you haven't done is proven it. The numbers don't support your claim, either. What the raw numbers support as a claim is that teams can't stop Welker from catching the ball, but they might be able to limit his YAC and the areas he's able to make the catch. That's about it.

WW's body of work in the playoffs tell use he has less yards per play, less YAC and less 1st dows are an opinion? LOL.

No, and this sort of stupid response is why your argument sucks. As I noted, and as you've now agreed in the portion of this response above, the numbers need context. You've not supplied that context. Instead, you've jumped straight to opinion.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Just edited this to reflect the fact that I had the wrong years in my spreadsheet and it affected the valuation:

I think you are misreading a bit the way the numbers would work and how the league values the contracts. The real contract doesnt begin until 2013 for Smith and you have to subtract out the current value since he was set to earn it anyway.

Smiths extension payouts are as follows:

1 Year- $7 million
2 Year- $14 million
3 Year- $21 million
4 Year- $30 million

So the real annual value that comes into play here if using it as a comparable is $7 million a season. The Panthers do have an out in year 2 and Id imagine they will take it. They pushed that option, which is protected, into June, which Im sure was done to take the June 1 benefit of cutting him and taking what I believe will be a $5 million cap hit in 2014 and $4 million one in 2015, though Im a little hazy on how these late option deals work and it may be $6 million and $3 million.

His guaranteed take home is $17.75 million which is all new, but the reality is he would be earning an additional $10 million to play 1 more years on the team and hold his rights through free agency the following season.

Welker is different in that his whole deal is guaranteed this season, but if you extend the same concept to him as Smiths his take home would basically be around $20-$21 million from 2012-2013 or about $25 million thru 2014. Considering the Pats hold his rights and dont need the cap relief they can play year by year and have no dead cap on the backend by playing the tag game.

Welker is different as well in he is 31 this year and coming off a record season. Smith is already 33 and coming off a very good season on the heels of two less than impressive ones. And the team already controlled his rights for 2 more seasons at the time they negotiated the deal via guaranteeing his remaining salary and adding unguaranteed salary.

And with Smith we were discussing the potential value of a 33 year old Welker going forward and what kind of deal he could even anticipate because the poster mistakenly believed Wes was 32 this season. If you're saying that is what Welker was worth this year then you too are getting confused.

As for dead cap, that is largely a function of bonus structure. They could have easily offered him a 4 year deal at $8M per with $20M guaranteed and by frontloading the guaranteed salary this season this season and next (say $6M per) and giving him an $8M sigining bonus up front been looking at $4M in dead cap at most spread over 2 years which you know is nada in exchange for controlling his rights for 4 years in which he sees $20M in the first two and as much or as little as they choose in the last two, including nothing.

And what this team offered Welker at age 30 with a year remaining in his existing deal that paid him $2.5M may have looked tempting on the surface because of the $16M guaranteed money, but the average of $6M per was certainly the sticking point. And then he went out and had a career season, so persistently offering him less was really an insurmountable sticking point.

If Welker has another season approaching last season some team, maybe even yours, is going to be willing to offer him 3 years at $7-8M per with at least 50% if not 60% guaranteed. If NE wouldn't budge on 3 or the guaranteed money this year they aren't likely to next year. Most people think it would be a stretch for them to even consider tagging him (except to try and recoup something in trade) because of the cap implications at $11.4M. Doing even a 3 year deal this season would have precluded it ever even coming to that.

 

[goheels22002]

I absolutely question the validity of those stats.

Sorry, dude. It is what it is:

Wes Welker Playoffs Game Log - Pro-Football-Reference.com

 

[treeclimber]

People are forgetting the most important stat in this whole ordeal.

5 years played for the Patriots, 0 Superbowl Rings.

Seymour and Law had a right to complain about their contracts. They actually got their work accomplished. Welker? Not so much.

 

[Brady2Moss]

It's hilarious how people so desperately want to act like Welker does anything of meaning in the playoffs for this team. Averaging about 50 yards and 1 or 2 first downs isn't anything to cry about losing. Maybe they lose a few more games in the regular season without him the playoff success has no relation to Wes Welker.

 

[Kontradiction]

People are forgetting the most important stat in this whole ordeal.

5 years played for the Patriots, 0 Superbowl Rings.

Seymour and Law had a right to complain about their contracts. They actually got their work accomplished. Welker? Not so much.

Yeah, but the Jets have been without a Super Bowl ring since the Tet Offensive. What Welker has gone through in comparison to that is not that bad.

 

[treeclimber]

Yeah, but the Jets have been without a Super Bowl ring since the Tet Offensive. What Welker has gone through in comparison to that is not that bad.

Jets aren't really relevant. I expect this current franchise, head coach, and QB to hold themselves to much higher standards than preseason victories and back to back AFC championship losses.

Fact is, if Welker wants to be paid like a top 5 receiver maybe he should play like one for once (playoffs especially). Unless you're only a fantasy football fan (which I'm assuming no one on this board is) then sure, he's lived up to expectations with his 1500 regular season yards. 122 catches but drops the most important one. Who cares about his regular season stats, he doesn't show up when it matters.

 

[goheels22002]

People are forgetting the most important stat in this whole ordeal.

5 years played for the Patriots, 0 Superbowl Rings.

Patriots record with Wes Welker 69-18 including playoffs. Best record of any team over that time span.

Rivalry check: NY Jets 45-41 including playoffs.

There's a Fung Wah bus leaving from Chinatown for the Big Apple in 34 minutes. If you hurry you can catch it.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Given that what you claim to be my position is not my position, I don't expect that I've supplied data to support that position. .

It's not my fault that I develop a perception based on what you state -its yours and your choice how to defend it or establish your position. I think that you believe WW has the same level of production in the playoffs as he does in the regular season. Quit talking circles and convince me otherwise. Its up to you.

WW didn't play in the Ravens game in question, so I have no idea how you think he was chipped coming off the line..

WW vs Ravens in AFCCG.

Actually, you've flat out stated it. What you haven't done is proven it. The numbers don't support your claim, either. What the raw numbers support as a claim is that teams can't stop Welker from catching the ball, but they might be able to limit his YAC and the areas he's able to make the catch. That's about it...

Might?...LOL. In 7 playoff games he averages 3.5 yards less per catch, 16 less yards per game and a sizably less 1st downs catch %.

No, and this sort of stupid response is why your argument sucks. As I noted, and as you've now agreed in the portion of this response above, the numbers need context. You've not supplied that context. Instead, you've jumped straight to opinion.

I see what you note and you have said nothing substantial to refute my position. At least Andy put up some numbers as a starting point to a discussion...

 

[treeclimber]

Patriots record with Wes Welker 69-18 including playoffs. Best record of any team over that time span.

Rivalry check: NY Jets 45-41 including playoffs.

There's a Fung Wah bus leaving from Chinatown for the Big Apple in 34 minutes. If you hurry you can catch it.

Oh look, a fan has a negative opinion about a player on the Patriots! He must be a Jets fan. Sorry, I don't chug koolaid like some.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Sorry, dude. It is what it is:

Wes Welker Playoffs Game Log - Pro-Football-Reference.com

In fariness to Andy, he questioned the statement I made around WW's 1s down catch % going down in the playoffs. That was not an easy task to research. I did it a few months ago and did it again last night to show him the numbers.

 

[condon84]

He didn't light it up before WW either.

What he did have was a Super Bowl defense and a comittment to the running game that was able to get yards when it needed to.

You're comparing Wes's regular season stats vs his playoff stats since he's been a Patriot. Why don't you compare Brady's regular season stats vs his playoff stats since Welker's been here. If Brady's not playing well, Welker's numbers are gonna suffer.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

People are forgetting the most important stat in this whole ordeal.

5 years played for the Patriots, 0 Superbowl Rings.

Seymour and Law had a right to complain about their contracts. They actually got their work accomplished. Welker? Not so much.

That would explain the Mankins and Mayo deals.

 

[Deus Irae]

It's not my fault that I develop a perception based on what you state -its yours and your choice how to defend it or establish your position. I think that you believe WW has the same level of production in the playoffs as he does in the regular season. Quit talking circles and convince me otherwise. Its up to you.

Given that I've stated no such thing and have implied no such thing, it's your inference that's the problem.

WW vs Ravens in AFCCG.

No, and I should know, since I'm the one who made the reference.

Might?...LOL. In 7 playoff games he averages 3.5 yards less per catch, 16 less yards per game and a sizably less 1st downs catch %.

Yes, might. It seems that you can't accept the notion of context, so that may be the entire problem.

I see what you note and you have said nothing substantial to refute my position. At least Andy put up some numbers as a starting point to a discussion...

Andy put up the numbers, and I don't have to as a result. The numbers he put up show the problem with your assumptions.

The reality, and the problem, is that you are confusing your personal opinion about the meaning of a few numbers, not all of which even support your position, with fact. As I've tried to get across to you (Losing battle, I know, given your history here, in this thread) is that you're taking the numbers without looking at the context, and you can't get a full picture that way. The Giants ('07) game is a pretty good example of that (Welker's numbers likely inflated because the Giants were pressuring Brady a lot and forcing him off deeper routes run by other players), yet you can't seem to wrap your brain around that.

That's an analysis failure on your part, not a lack of numbers on my part.

 

[RobertWeathers]

You're comparing Wes's regular season stats vs his playoff stats since he's been a Patriot. Why don't you compare Brady's regular season stats vs his playoff stats since Welker's been here. If Brady's not playing well, Welker's numbers are gonna suffer.

Sure. Same logic applies to Welker not playing well and how that impacts Brady.

I don't put a lot of stock in it but whats interesting is in Brady's top 10 QB rating games, 6 are pre-WW. Top 10 yards per pass, same thing..

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Sure. Same logic applies to Welker not playing well and how that impacts Brady.

I don't put a lot of stock in it but whats interesting is in Brady's top 10 QB rating games, 6 are pre-WW. Top 10 yards per pass, same thing..

Of course that could be due to the fact that he's played twice as many games pre as post Welker (with Welker) not to mention because those were pre blueprint era before playoff teams adopted the kill the head strategy post 2007 and the spread offense when facing NE in the playoffs.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Given that I've stated no such thing, it's your fault that you struggled with reading comprehension..

I don't think thats the case whatsoever. Its more the case of you attempting to dismiss 7 games worth of trends with a lot of side-stepping and double-talk.

No, and I should know, since I'm the one who made the reference...

Whatever. You asked for context and I gave you a game. Contort as it suits you.

Yes, might. I don't know what is too difficult for you to grasp here, but it seems that you can't understand the notion of context, so that may be the entire problem....

I understand context perfectly and also how it can be used as a misdirection away from data that shows a clear trend.

Andy put up the numbers, and I don't have to as a result. The numbers he put up show the problem with your assumptions.....

What do they demonstrate actually? He averages more catches in the playoffs, but less yards, and first downs.

The reality, and the problem, is that you are confusing your personal opinion about the meaning of a few numbers, not all of which even support your position, with fact. As I've tried to get across to you (Losing battle, I know, given your history here) is that you're taking the numbers without looking at the context, and you can't get a full picture that way. The Giants ('07) game is a pretty good example of that (Welker's numbers likely inflated because the Giants were pressuring Brady a lot and forcing him off deeper routes run by other players), yet you can't seem to wrap your brain around that.

That's an analysis failure on your part, not a lack of numbers on my part.

...and the AFCCG in '11 is an example of the opposite. Brady was sacked only once as BAL flooded the secondary and played man to man. WW was contained.

 

[RobertWeathers]

not to mention because those were pre blueprint era before playoff teams adopted the kill the head strategy post 2007 and the spread offense when facing NE in the playoffs.

A blueprint is only as good as the team that can execute it. In theory the Pats are 4-2 vs the blueprint with WW and two defensive stops from being 6-0.

In the losses and not-so-hot games that they won, I like to think that for reasons beyond pressuring the heak out of TB, the offense was "contained"

 

[Deus Irae]

I don't think thats the case whatsoever. Its more the case of you attempting to dismiss 7 games worth of trends with a lot of side-stepping and double-talk.

Not at all, given that those 7 games don't prove your point, as has been noted time and again.

Whatever. You asked for context and I gave you a game. Contort as it suits you.

I'm not contorting anything. Now you're just clowning yourself. The game I was referring to was the 2009 game against the Ravens, where Welker didn't play.

I understand context perfectly and also how it can be used as a misdirection away from data that shows a clear trend.

You've demonstrated, time and again, that you don't understand context. This response of yours demonstrates it once again, as a matter of fact.

What do they demonstrate actually? He averages more catches in the playoffs, but less yards, and first downs.

Catches up. Touchdowns even/up. That's not containment. You've put out other numbers which support your claim. Instead of reconciling the two by looking to context, you've just spouted off a bunch of gibberish.

...and the AFCCG in '11 is an example of the opposite. Brady was sacked only once as BAL flooded the secondary and played man to man.

And Brady made, by his own admission, bad reads and throws in that game. It's not an example of the opposite, at all. Once again, you show an inability to analyze that makes your arguments absolutely worthless.

 

[goheels22002]

Oh look, a fan has a negative opinion about a player on the Patriots! He must be a Jets fan. Sorry, I don't chug koolaid like some.

So how did you get the Buck Teeth?