KC Joyner: The Pats' defense to be most improved

[BlueThunder]

Yards don't matter AT ALL when Team A is up 35-14 with 5 minutes left and Team A is in soft zone giving up the underneath area to allow Team B to march down the field, but eat up clock since the game is essentially already decided. The yards Team A is allowing Team B to get do NOT matter, and do not affect the quality of their defense.

Football statistics need to be taken in context and that's what a lot of people (most people) don't seem to be able to understand. You can't really understand how a game went in football by just looking at the box score.

Once more people understand that, football discussions will become much more intelligent.


...EDIT: My points here are not to say the Patriots had a good defense last year, because they clearly did not. However, the reason for them not having a great defense. Or should I say, the PROOF of them not having a great defense does NOT lie in how many yards they allowed. Many times, yards allowed has to do with gameplan (like I said, if a team is up by a lot), or by field position, etc. There are many factors.

I believe I was using specific instances of inches/yds mattering in a game and not just an overall blanket statement.

Most fans know that they don't keep track of yards allowed on the scoreboard to determine who won the game

 

[BradyFTW!]

If you're projecting based on yardage, which Joyner appears to be doing, then the Pats could pretty easily be the most-improved defense without even becoming good. Pretty safe guess.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Yards don't matter AT ALL when Team A is up 35-14 with 5 minutes left and Team A is in soft zone giving up the underneath area to allow Team B to march down the field, but eat up clock since the game is essentially already decided. The yards Team A is allowing Team B to get do NOT matter, and do not affect the quality of their defense.

Football statistics need to be taken in context and that's what a lot of people (most people) don't seem to be able to understand. You can't really understand how a game went in football by just looking at the box score.

Once more people understand that, football discussions will become much more intelligent.


...EDIT: My points here are not to say the Patriots had a good defense last year, because they clearly did not. However, the reason for them not having a great defense. Or should I say, the PROOF of them not having a great defense does NOT lie in how many yards they allowed. Many times, yards allowed has to do with gameplan (like I said, if a team is up by a lot), or by field position, etc. There are many factors.

Agreed. In a fairly close game, yards can tell a part of the story in much the same way that TOP can. But as a stat, yards can be relegated to meaningless in a hurry, especially in games where--as you mentioned--one team is up by enough that it's willing to trade yards for clock and just protect against huge plays.

There's a reason why the Packers and Patriots both surrendered historically bad yardage last year, and it had a lot to do with the fact that both of their offenses were ending a lot of games by halftime. Both defenses were frequently playing full quarters of the game with the explicit purpose of letting them march down the field as long as they were willing to do it slowly. Probably the best example was week 1 vs. the Dolphins. Patriots shut them down for 3+ quarters, then let Henne "go off" on them in the fourth when they were already up by a few dozen points.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Yeah but yards given up doesn't matter and the 2011 defense was just fine, as BB showed with this year's draft. :bricks:

I don't think anyone is claiming that last year's defense was good. Just that it wasn't one of the absolute worst of all-time, which is where yardage surrendered has it ranked. It was solidly below average, which made it a prime target for improvement. The Pats have spent this offseason primarily upgrading the unit that was terrible last year (safeties), as well as the unit that was hurt by FA losses (edge rushers)

 

[Patriots2001]

This is the stat that hurt them IMO...3rd down defense


3rd Down Conversions


43.1%


28th

 

[Ring 6]

This is the stat that hurt them IMO...3rd down defense


3rd Down Conversions


43.1%


28th

Its a big part of it. Everything about a defense goes into 3rd down D, because what you do on 1st and 2nd dictates your chances on 3rd.
BUT, the Patriots faced a total of 202 3rd down attempts, or about 12-13 a game or 3 a quarter. At 43.1% they allowed 87 conversions, or about 5 1/2 a game of abou
t 1 to 1.5 a quarter.
The #1 3rd down defense was the Cardinals at 31%.
The middle of the league was 37-38%.
If the Pats were totally average in 3rd down stops, they would have allowed 12 fewer all season, or less than 1 a game.
1 extra 3rd down conversion may or may not even lead to points.

The 87 first downs allowed on 3rd represent less than 1/4 of the total 1st downs allowed.
Playing better on 1st and 2nd down is really a much bigger issue. It is very likely that better first and second down defense would cause at least 12 of those 3rd down chances to be from a longer distance with a lesser chance to convert, and the 3rd down D becomes average without improving itself.

 

[treeclimber]

wow what an amazing article the nfl must be shocked in fear if they team was seconds aways from a superbowl victory is about to have the most improved defense its not fair to the teams with a crappy defense having to watch the patriots defense get even better :rocker:

 

[Joker]

anybody got the space alien translator software lying around?

 

[Pape]

This is the stat that hurt them IMO...3rd down defense


3rd Down Conversions


43.1%


28th

Its very hard to look at 3rd down conversion percentages in a vacuum. One would think that the championship Patriot defenses would have a superior 3rd down conversion percentage but its generally not the case.

For the most part the championship teams were average or slightly better, with the best performances by the 2003 and 2007 (non-championship) defenses at 34% in the regular season. There were also very similar in the post season, with 40% and 41%, respectively, 3rd down conversion rates.

Would I like to see a better conversion percentage? Absolutely. It gets the D off the field so they can rest. I think the defense needs to work on lowering the overall yards per play. Last season the defense let up an average 6.2 yards per play. Thats abysmal.

Giving up so many yards per play means that on average the opposing offense was looking at a 3 to 4 yard conversion. Thats way too easy to get. If we see that the defense has lowered that number back into the low 5's high 4's then we will know if the defense has improved measurably.

 

[Kontradiction]

Ah. The old "pfip waves his white flag, attempts to throw out some insults, then tucks his tail between his vagina and runs out of the thread" routine. Never gets old.

Yeah

This "post" sums it up perfectly.

You really are THAT dumb.

Only a complete imbecile could ever actually delude themself into thinking the offense was "bogged down" by a "very good defense" in the AFCCG.

Mistakes aside, the Pats offense was bogged down by the Ravens D. They forced Brady into two boneheaded picks on the Edelman play and the deep post to a well covered Slater who was the best option because the middle of the field was taken away. The only time Brady scored was by diving into the end zone. The other opportunities, as you noted, he overthrew Gronk and prior to that, Ray Lewis made a play on a pass to Welker. Luckily for us, the Ravens spent much of the first three quarters bogging themselves down on offense.

You simply cannot take the numbnuts off and actually watch the game.

Pot, meet kettle.

.......and the defense "almost lost it".

Indeed they did. Like I told you, at some point, the offense was either going to be slowed or shut down. In this case they were slowed down but still handed the defense the keys to the game with the lead. The defense responded by allowing the mighty Joe Flacco to drive down the field setting it up for a potential game tying field goal to send it into OT. Luckily for us, Billy ****sniff choked and we went to the Super Bowl where, two weeks later, the "just fine" 2011 version of our D allowed Eli to go 30-40, dominate TOP, and keep Brady off the field for long stretches. In the end, the offense had to save it and couldn't come through with the misfire to Welker. Enter the defense who proceeds to surrender the backbreaking drive instead of standing firm and bailing out the offense for a change.

Torture every non reality to fit the preconceived idiocy that has zero basis in fact.

Wait? Non-reality? Are you saying that the defense was not the ultimate reason in the end why we aren't Super Bowl champions? Are you saying that changes weren't needed for that side of the ball? Are you saying that we didn't just invest well over 3/4's of our draft on that side of the ball? Please, tell me what points I'm making that can even be considered non-realities. This should be rich.

 

[PatsGirl2011]

The problem with this defense was 1. Big Plays (hence why they lost the SB, IMO) 2. Third down Defense and 3. Lack of a consistent pass rush. If you look back at all 4 of the Pats losses last season, giving up big plays and the third down defense cost them significantly in the end.

 

[Kontradiction]

I don't think anyone is claiming that last year's defense was good. Just that it wasn't one of the absolute worst of all-time, which is where yardage surrendered has it ranked. It was solidly below average, which made it a prime target for improvement. The Pats have spent this offseason primarily upgrading the unit that was terrible last year (safeties), as well as the unit that was hurt by FA losses (edge rushers)

The defense wasn't the worst of all time. There are more qualities to a defense than just pass yardage given up. You have to take into account the run defense as well as the ability to rush the passer. In that regard, you could feel free to consider the 2011 version of our D as either middle of the pack, or in the bottom-middle category. While the defense as a whole wasn't historically bad, the pass defense, specifically, was. In today's NFL, you simply cannot win a championship with a formula of allowing chunks of yardage through the air. Last year, I stated that I believed that the eventual undoing of this team would be the offense getting slowed down because, when that happened, the defense would need to get off the field in a timely manner so the opposition didn't eat up TOP (thus taking chances to score away from Brady) and didn't win the field position battle. We were fortunate to get a Denver team in the playoffs that couldn't get out of their own way, then a Baltimore team in the AFCCG that shot themselves in the foot multiple times throughout the game. In the Suprr Bowl our luck ran out. Eli went 30-40, the Giants controlled the field position battle thoughout the game because of yardage yielded to them, and they dominated TOP. Brady and the offense made some mistakes, sure, but they were the prime reason we even took the lead in that game, having to sustain long drives in order to score.

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

The defense wasn't the worst of all time. There are more qualities to a defense than just pass yardage given up. You have to take into account the run defense as well as the ability to rush the passer. In that regard, you could feel free to consider the 2011 version of our D as either middle of the pack, or in the bottom-middle category. While the defense as a whole wasn't historically bad, the pass defense, specifically, was. In today's NFL, you simply cannot win a championship with a formula of allowing chunks of yardage through the air. Last year, I stated that I believed that the eventual undoing of this team would be the offense getting slowed down because, when that happened, the defense would need to get off the field in a timely manner so the opposition didn't eat up TOP (thus taking chances to score away from Brady) and didn't win the field position battle. We were fortunate to get a Denver team in the playoffs that couldn't get out of their own way, then a Baltimore team in the AFCCG that shot themselves in the foot multiple times throughout the game. In the Suprr Bowl our luck ran out. Eli went 30-40, the Giants controlled the field position battle thoughout the game because of yardage yielded to them, and they dominated TOP. Brady and the offense made some mistakes, sure, but they were the prime reason we even took the lead in that game, having to sustain long drives in order to score.

It appears that you've set a bar so low for the offense that they can do no wrong and the defense will always be to blame for every loss. In today's NFL, you simply cannot win a championship by scoring only 17 points, unless you're playing the Pats...

 

[Kontradiction]

It appears that you've set a bar so low for the offense that they can do no wrong and the defense will always be to blame for every loss. In today's NFL, you simply cannot win a championship by scoring only 17 points, unless you're playing the Pats...

That's because the conversation was specifically about the defense. If you've looked closely, I've credited the offense with mistakes in the AFCCG, and I've credited them with mistakes in the Super Bowl. Further I've credited them with a need being filled in receivers that can threaten the deep and intermediate levels of the field. I've also credited them with carrying us all throughout the 2011 season. So no, I'm not absolving them of all blame. Football is a team sport and both sides often make mistakes in a loss. However, in the big game, the defense was handed the keys with a lead. Instead of driving us to victory, they drove the car off the cliff and into an embankment. But that was par for the course for our pass defense all throughout last season.

 

[BradyFTW!]

The defense wasn't the worst of all time. There are more qualities to a defense than just pass yardage given up. You have to take into account the run defense as well as the ability to rush the passer. In that regard, you could feel free to consider the 2011 version of our D as either middle of the pack, or in the bottom-middle category. While the defense as a whole wasn't historically bad, the pass defense, specifically, was. In today's NFL, you simply cannot win a championship with a formula of allowing chunks of yardage through the air. Last year, I stated that I believed that the eventual undoing of this team would be the offense getting slowed down because, when that happened, the defense would need to get off the field in a timely manner so the opposition didn't eat up TOP (thus taking chances to score away from Brady) and didn't win the field position battle. We were fortunate to get a Denver team in the playoffs that couldn't get out of their own way, then a Baltimore team in the AFCCG that shot themselves in the foot multiple times throughout the game. In the Suprr Bowl our luck ran out. Eli went 30-40, the Giants controlled the field position battle thoughout the game because of yardage yielded to them, and they dominated TOP. Brady and the offense made some mistakes, sure, but they were the prime reason we even took the lead in that game, having to sustain long drives in order to score.

Agreed pretty much- that's why I was hoping for the 49ers in the Super Bowl. Winning a SB by beating Tebow, Flacco and Alex Smith would have been just an incredible amount of luck. The Pats' defense was below average, and the safeties were by far the worst unit, so it shouldn't have surprised anyone that they couldn't keep a top-tier passing offense from working the middle of the field and eating up time of possession. Every team has weaknesses, and the Pats faced pretty much their worst possible matchup in the Super Bowl.

At the end of the day, they were still good enough to win it all, though, and the offense and defense both had plays that they blew by a matter of inches. I would assign blame for the loss to the offense and defense equally. The offense failed to execute in ways that we know that it can and should, while the defense simply wasn't talented enough. Given that, it makes sense that there would be far more of an investment in fixing the defense- it's an easier, more reliable fix that has the potential to yield the greatest improvement. The offense just needed a couple more pieces (some OL and TE depth, Lloyd), while the defense just needed a straight-up talent infusion.

 

[Triumph]

It appears that you've set a bar so low for the offense that they can do no wrong and the defense will always be to blame for every loss. In today's NFL, you simply cannot win a championship by scoring only 17 points, unless you're playing the Pats...

Yes, especially if the Pats have the lead late in the 4th quarter and their defense has to go back on the field.

The Pats have turned into the 99 Rams.

 

[Triumph]

The defense wasn't the worst of all time. There are more qualities to a defense than just pass yardage given up. You have to take into account the run defense as well as the ability to rush the passer. In that regard, you could feel free to consider the 2011 version of our D as either middle of the pack, or in the bottom-middle category. While the defense as a whole wasn't historically bad, the pass defense, specifically, was. In today's NFL, you simply cannot win a championship with a formula of allowing chunks of yardage through the air. Last year, I stated that I believed that the eventual undoing of this team would be the offense getting slowed down because, when that happened, the defense would need to get off the field in a timely manner so the opposition didn't eat up TOP (thus taking chances to score away from Brady) and didn't win the field position battle. We were fortunate to get a Denver team in the playoffs that couldn't get out of their own way, then a Baltimore team in the AFCCG that shot themselves in the foot multiple times throughout the game. In the Suprr Bowl our luck ran out. Eli went 30-40, the Giants controlled the field position battle thoughout the game because of yardage yielded to them, and they dominated TOP. Brady and the offense made some mistakes, sure, but they were the prime reason we even took the lead in that game, having to sustain long drives in order to score.

More bad games by Brady and injuries are in the forecast.

This passing defense has to get better for NE to win another Championship.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

It appears that you've set a bar so low for the offense that they can do no wrong and the defense will always be to blame for every loss. In today's NFL, you simply cannot win a championship by scoring only 17 points, unless you're playing the Pats...

Thing is no matter how good your offense is, at some point you'll have to rely on your defense to pull these games out for you. Look at some of the greatest offenses we've seen in our lifetime and how they struggled in at least one game during their playoff run:
2007 Patriots - 14 points in the SB
2004 Colts - 3 points in the divisional round
1999 Rams - 11 points in the NFCC

Chances are you won't build a better offense than the 3 listed. And chances are the defense will need to put together a better effort than just holding your opponent to around 20 and hoping the offense can top that. Make stops, force turnovers, get off the field. Our defense doesn't do that nearly consistently enough. And like Kontra pointed out, the blame goes on both sides of the ball. But the point is you can't count on 20+ from your offense on a weekly basis in January especially when you're not forcing turnovers and not getting off the field.

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

That's because the conversation was specifically about the defense. If you've looked closely, I've credited the offense with mistakes in the AFCCG, and I've credited them with mistakes in the Super Bowl. Further I've credited them with a need being filled in receivers that can threaten the deep and intermediate levels of the field. I've also credited them with carrying us all throughout the 2011 season. So no, I'm not absolving them of all blame. Football is a team sport and both sides often make mistakes in a loss. However, in the big game, the defense was handed the keys with a lead. Instead of driving us to victory, they drove the car off the cliff and into an embankment. But that was par for the course for our pass defense all throughout last season.

Oh I was thinking it was because you were under some weird delusion that the offense just slowed down and made some mistakes.

The problem with the lead they were handed is there was still about 1/3rd of the game left... There are plenty of reasons to be critical of last season's defense, but the POs should be pretty far down that list.

 

[Deus Irae]

Oh I was thinking it was because you were under some weird delusion that the offense just slowed down and made some mistakes.

The problem with the lead they were handed is there was still about 1/3rd of the game left... There are plenty of reasons to be critical of last season's defense, but the POs should be pretty far down that list.

You raise up something which is a good point about the entire BB era, without specifically meaning to. In every Patriots Super Bowl under BB, the defense has had the lead and either lost it or seen it whittled down. At some point we might want to look at why that is and wonder if it's a strategy/tactics problem.