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Is McCourty going to be a full time Safety in 2012?

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Or you could study his play, like I did and come ot the correct one.

You studied his play? Really? More than the rest of us? And you came to the conclusion that Bill Belichick was happy with his coverage play at cornerback?

Let's review what happened.

- Devin McCourty struggled in coverage early in the year.
- James Ihedigbo struggled in coverage all year.
- At the end of the season, Devin McCourty continued to play corner in the base defense on early downs.
- At the end of the season, James Ihedigbo continued to play safety in the base defense on early downs.
- Devin McCourty was moved to safety in the sub packages in pass defense situations.
- James Ihedigbo was moved off the field in the sub packages in pass defense situations.

There are two rather obvious conclusions to make from that chain of events. And if your "film study", which apparently is about as effective as PFF's, as to say not at all, comes to a different conclusion, I think you need to do some self-scouting.

Bill Belichick has never taken a player who was playing a position well and moved him to another position to replace him with an unknown. Never. If Devin McCourty was playing cornerback adequately in the subpackages in passing situations, he would have remained there.
 
"One of the worst seasons ever" is a pretty big stretch, IMO. Even with the 'statistical' qualifier, if only because CBs are notoriously hard to evaluate statistically. He was bad at cornerback, but he was still decent enough (or the alternatives crappy enough) that he started and played a ton of snaps there until the safety situation got so bad that he was forced to situationally move.

That's fair. Again, I made an error by omitting statistical, and if you want to debate that part, that's OK too. I admit it's hard to quantify CB play with stats. But I do trust Football Outsiders to an extent. And McCourty's numbers are pretty poor on there. No matter which site you use, and I know we feel the same way about PFF, it seems to suggest that McCourty gave up an awful lot of yards.

Again, I made a point of saying I don't think his season was as bad as those stats suggested - in the same way I don't think he was playing at a Pro Bowl caliber level the year before.

My point was that there were two assessments of him: Pro Bowl in 2010, all-time level crap in 2011, and neither were truly accurate.

But he did struggle last year - and I think we're fooling ourselves if we think Bill Belichick is going to take a corner playing decently and move him to safety just to plug in a guy off the street.
 
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Two sentences...that completely contradict each other is about as black and white as it gets.

They only contradict each other if the person reading it is incapable of seeing grey area.

Again:

- Devin McCourty's 2010 earned him a Pro Bowl. Did he play at that level?
- Devin McCourty's 2011 earned him being called one of the worst CBs in the league by metrics/advanced stats sites. Was he that bad?

Neither is totally accurate. The truth lies in the middle. I said as much in my original post.
 
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They only contradict each other if the person reading it is incapable of seeing grey area.

Again:

- Devin McCourty's 2010 earned him a Pro Bowl. Did he play at that level?
- Devin McCourty's 2011 earned him being called one of the worst CBs in the league by metrics/advanced stats sites. Was he that bad?

Neither is totally accurate. The truth lies in the middle. I said as much in my original post.
He absolutely deserved to go to the Pro Bowl in 2010. To say otherwise is to revise history.
What you should be saying is fans who decided then that he was a lock to go to 10 more were overrating him.
 
Of course they lie, because you are using numbers that are tremendously flawed.
He was 'moved to safety' he played S in sub packages.
I am not 'defending' anyone, I am telling you what I saw when I studied his play. You are telling me what some guys who admit they know nothing about football counted up by trying to guess from a TV feed who to charge pass receptions to on defense.

They're flawed? Okay, well since you've watched every defensive snap McCourty played last year, what are the numbers you've come up with? Where is your breakdown of the year he had? How many yards were allowed against him? What was the quarterback rating?

You are using stats from a well known flawed source, that actually admits to its own failings. Good luck with that. Numnbers that are made up correlate to nothing.

The numbers are made up? So they have no basis in reality whatsoever? Okay.

You really should check up on the site you are using as your replacement for watching footballl and developing an opinion.

I watched the games and developed an opinion. It just so happens that numbers back up my opinion, and they contradict yours.

I have already told you what it would show you.

So prove it to me.

Dude, all I can say is lighten up, drop the anger and watch some football.
Perhaps instead of going that far, you would prefer to go to your wonderful ficticious stat source, and consider this. Even a fan who apparently watches game sometimes, such as yourself would notice that McCourty had at least 5-6 of his Ints on the exact route and coverage I am talking about, and clearly had 8 such passes completed on him last year on the exact same play he was piking off or knocking down. Those plays are all 35+ yard throws. So 8 plays would add up to 350 yards or so.
That your ProFootballFocus stats and eliminate 6 Ints from 2010 and 8 completions for 350 yards from 2011 and tell me what is left. See that will show you, even with your own putrid stat source, the facts that I am talking about.

Cool story.

I didn't realize you were brand new here. We run into this about every 6 months or so, where someone comes along thinking ProFootballFocus is a legitimate or valuable source.

I'm hardly brand new here. You're reading too much into a post count or registration date.
 
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He absolutely deserved to go to the Pro Bowl in 2010. To say otherwise is to revise history.
What you should be saying is fans who decided then that he was a lock to go to 10 more were overrating him.

Fair enough. But just as playmaking covered up some deficiencies in coverage in 2010, the lack of it over-emphasized coverage deficiencies it in 2011.

All I'm saying is: McCourty had a bad year. But there's also reason to assume he'll be better in 2012. I'm not going out on a huge limb here.
 
Fair enough. But just as playmaking covered up some deficiencies in coverage in 2010, the lack of it over-emphasized coverage deficiencies it in 2011.

All I'm saying is: McCourty had a bad year. But there's also reason to assume he'll be better in 2012. I'm not going out on a huge limb here.
I don't agree with your initial paragraph, simply because I am judging the majority of his play, not overemphasizing a handful of plays. In fact that is exactly my point.
Perhaps many only thought he was a Pro Bowl player in 2010 because of his Ints, but I judged him based on all of his play. Ints or not, he was a top 5 corner. For the same reason, I judge his 2011 mostly on the full body of work, not the handful of poor plays.
I think the people who only thought his Ints were why he was a top 5 corner as a rookie, are the same ones who thought he was terrible last year, when in fact he was as good for most of the plays he participated in and had a flaw that stuck out like a sore thumb on a handful of plays. I can't help if people want to judge him solely by the picks in 10 or the flaw in 11, but he had 900 other plays that should be considered.
 
They're flawed?
Surely you know that.


Okay, well since you've watched every defensive snap McCourty played last year, what are the numbers you've come up with? Where is your breakdown of the year he had? How many yards were allowed against him? What was the quarterback rating?
Attempting to do that without knowing the play call and coverage and watching the coaching tape is flawed. The concept is as flawed as the calculation, and I listed all of the reasons.




The numbers are made up? So they have no basis in reality whatsoever? Okay.
Choose a different word if you wish. Invalid. Contribed. Inaccurate. Flawed. Wrong. Phony.



I watched the games and developed an opinion. It just so happens that numbers back up my opinion, and they contradict yours.
I'm telling you what I saw. Feel free to think what you want. But the numbers are a fraud.

So prove it to me.
I have already told you. Beleive what you want. You seem to think a guy who knows nothing about football watching a TV in another country is the authority, so I'm not sure I'd feel good if you agreed with me.



Cool story.
It is what it is.



I'm hardly brand new here. You're reading too much into a post count or registration date.
??????? New isnt based on when you showed up and how much you participated?
 
You studied his play? Really? More than the rest of us?
I have no clue how much you watched, rewatched, evaluated or studied, but based upon your comments here, Id have to say, yes more than you.

And you came to the conclusion that Bill Belichick was happy with his coverage play at cornerback?
I'm sure he was very disappointed in the weakness that I have discussed, and very happy with the rest of his play.

Let's review what happened.

- Devin McCourty struggled in coverage early in the year.
- James Ihedigbo struggled in coverage all year.
- At the end of the season, Devin McCourty continued to play corner in the base defense on early downs.
- At the end of the season, James Ihedigbo continued to play safety in the base defense on early downs.
- Devin McCourty was moved to safety in the sub packages in pass defense situations.
- James Ihedigbo was moved off the field in the sub packages in pass defense situations.

There are two rather obvious conclusions to make from that chain of events.
The only obvious conclusions are that when we played base BB wanted McCourty at corner and Ihedigbo at S. When it was time to bring in a 5th or 6th DB he felt the team was best by using McCourty at S at that stage of the season. When you consider the lean pickings to put on the field in sub (Molden rarely played in most games and we used a WR in some) its not hard to realize the combination took a lot of consideration. I do not know why you would consider it a slight to move McCourty over to correct the disaster we had a safety, which is very likely the reason it happened. If it were becuase someone else was a better corner, they would have played ahead of him in the base.





And if your "film study", which apparently is about as effective as PFF's, as to say not at all, comes to a different conclusion, I think you need to do some self-scouting.
Your conclusion is a guess. Perhaps you should do some self scouting.
Seriously, every comment I have made is based upon what I saw the player do on the field. You are relying on bogus stats and reading tea leaves to try to support your predetermined guess.
I simply don't believe in looking at things that way.
Feel free to do whatever you wish, but I am not interested in that kind of approach.

Bill Belichick has never taken a player who was playing a position well and moved him to another position to replace him with an unknown. Never..
Does saying never twice make you feel better or only make you twice as wrong when I bring up moving Vince Wilfork to DE in 2009? Of course there are other examples to including Bruschi moving to MLB, Roman Phifer moving to ILB. Adalius Thomas and Mike Vrabel moving to ILB, Rodney Harrison and Ty Law switching positions in the playoffs vs Manning, Richard Seymour moving from NT to DE with no NT to replace him, and thats just off the top of my head, on one side of the ball.
Want to say never again?


If Devin McCourty was playing cornerback adequately in the subpackages in passing situations, he would have remained there.
That is a misguided opinion that dismisses the issue that safety was a bigger problem. Why move him to safety if he sucks? Just bench him. Why play him in the base if he sucks?
You are making a guess and calling it fact.
 
Again, it's not just PFF who charts, but football outsiders - who has shown much better accuracy charting.
Why don't you link those stats? And we can discuss their validity.

While you are at it, why don't you linlk 2010s also, so we can see if those 8 plays for 350 yards that I viewed as the difference in his 2 seasons represent the difference in the bogus stats too?
 
From Bedard today:

Devin McCourty, according to league sources, is expected to be paired with Patrick Chung at safety. The Patriots wanted LaRon Landry, but were scared off by his medicals. Gregory and Josh Barrett provide good depth.

Moving McCourty does leave the Patriots thin at cornerback, but not desperately. Ras-I Dowling and Kyle Arrington are the starters, and veteran Will Allen and Sterling Moore will be in the mix. The Patriots will be looking for corners who can play man coverage and could take one early in Trumaine Johnson of Montana, despite some character concerns

Now, I'm not sure which "league sources" would be privy to the Pats' plans, but there you go.
 
That is a misguided opinion that dismisses the issue that safety was a bigger problem. Why move him to safety if he sucks? Just bench him. Why play him in the base if he sucks?
You are making a guess and calling it fact.

I'm exhausted of this argument since I think the whole exercise is rather silly since I don't think the fundamental conclusions we're coming to are worlds apart - we're getting bogged down in hyperbole, and I apologize for introducing it from the getgo.

Now, that said, I don't think your comparisons to Wilfork playing some DE or Harrison playing CB to confuse Manning are fair at all. With the exception of Bruschi's situation, mostly those were situations where Belichick asked one of the best players ever to play on this team to move to a slightly different spot for a tactical game-planning reason. IE, Wilfork playing DE against teams that run outside (Miami with Jake Long) or the Harrison v Manning in the playoff games. So I don't see the connection.

Bottom line for me, if McCourty were playing Pro Bowl level CB, he would not have made such a permanent (at least for 2011) to subpackage FS. And you have to realize that by your own logic re: McCourty's CB skills (that the fact he was starting indicates a certain level of play) you unknowingly to detriment your argument for what it says about Ihedigbo. We can't have it both ways.

Last, the notion that only a few plays were the difference in McCourty's season - well that's sort of like saying "well, other than that how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln." It's a huge chunk of production yielded for a CB and it can't flippantly be dismissed.

It's clear to me that Belichick shifted the secondary in order to get guys with appropriate coverage skills in the right spot. To me, the fact that the perceived dropoff he had between McCourty's CB skills and a street free agent who was just playing safety were small enough to allow McCourty to shift over and bring better coverage to the safety position than Ihedigbo says something. And I don't know why you would think it only says something about Ihedigbo. The more accurate assessment is to see what it says about Moore, Ihedigbo and McCourty. We clearly come to some different evaluations here.

But - in the end - McCourty will probably be fine no matter where he is next year. He had limitations in his game - injuries derailed his season, and I think mentally he was affected. His production was affected.

Since we generally probably both feel comfortable with McCourty going forward, I'll let you have the last word on this debate and then bow out of this argument.
 
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I'm exhausted of this argument since I think the whole exercise is rather silly since I don't think the fundamental conclusions we're coming to are worlds apart - we're getting bogged down in hyperbole, and I apologize for introducing it from the getgo.

Now, that said, I don't think your comparisons to Wilfork playing some DE or Harrison playing CB to confuse Manning are fair at all. With the exception of Bruschi's situation, mostly those were situations where Belichick asked one of the best players ever to play on this team to move to a slightly different spot for a tactical game-planning reason. IE, Wilfork playing DE against teams that run outside (Miami with Jake Long) or the Harrison v Manning in the playoff games. So I don't see the connection.
You said he has never, ever moved a player to a diferent position and put a weaker one in his spot. Wilfork is exactly the same thing, right down to doing it situationally. Now you are saying that exact sdame situations don't apply because you are trying to prove McCourty sucks, so using good players doenst count. Circular argument 101.
By the way,Wilfork played DE A LOT, not just against Miami, that was the first time.

Bottom line for me, if McCourty were playing Pro Bowl level CB, he would not have made such a permanent (at least for 2011) to subpackage FS.
A) It was only a few games, so I don't know why you say permanent.
B) As I have said it is very reasonable that it was done to fix the S problem.
C) We don't have a FS and SS we have a LS and RS

And you have to realize that by your own logic re: McCourty's CB skills (that the fact he was starting indicates a certain level of play) you unknowingly to detriment your argument for what it says about Ihedigbo. We can't have it both ways.
A) It is incorrect that Ihedigbo always came out in sub
B) Safeties require different skills in base and sub. There is no detriment. If I take a safety off the field in passing downs who is better in running downs, that says nothing about the quality of my corner and where I align him when I don't have a safety who can cover.

Last, the notion that only a few plays were the difference in McCourty's season - well that's sort of like saying "well, other than that how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln." It's a huge chunk of production yielded for a CB and it can't flippantly be dismissed.
Thank you Mr Strawman. Where have I flippantly dismissed it? I have in fact done the opposite, stating that if it isn't fixed it is a disaster.
I am simply explaining what happened. The fact is that those handful of plays (and the struggle with the particular technique) are the difference. I have never told anyone how much weight to place on them, just that isolating them illustrates the difference in his play in those 2 seasons.

It's clear to me that Belichick shifted the secondary in order to get guys with appropriate coverage skills in the right spot. To me, the fact that the perceived dropoff he had between McCourty's CB skills and a street free agent who was just playing safety were small enough to allow McCourty to shift over and bring better coverage to the safety position than Ihedigbo says something. And I don't know why you would think it only says something about Ihedigbo. The more accurate assessment is to see what it says about Moore, Ihedigbo and McCourty. We clearly come to some different evaluations here.
You are guessing.
Safeties sucked, especially in coverage. When I choose my 5 or 6 best DBs, I have 3 corners a S a WR, and some misfits. I align them in a way to make my defense the best.
You assume that the best guy plays corner, but in fact, if you watch the plays, you will see that the most thinking fell on McCourty and we played a scheme that limited what the corners do. The corners can hurt you less than the safety. In some of those games we play cover 0 with Mccourty free. That isn't hiding McCourty, its freeing him up.
You have to get over this best guy lines up at corner and the rest fill out the spots blindspot you have.
I'd suggest that in a sub package, at the end of the season, Chung and McCourty were the only guys we had who could play competant S, so there was necessity in the move too.

But - in the end - McCourty will probably be fine no matter where he is next year. He had limitations in his game - injuries derailed his season, and I think mentally he was affected. His production was affected.

Since we generally probably both feel comfortable with McCourty going forward, I'll let you have the last word on this debate and then bow out of this argument.
OK, last word is good exchange, some things we agree, some we do not, may be a good topic to resume during the season.
 
From Bedard today:



Now, I'm not sure which "league sources" would be privy to the Pats' plans, but there you go.

Bedard and SMY work together, so my guess is that it's the same source as the first post in this thread.
 
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