* Ye Official 2012 Mock Draft Thread!! *

[Metaphors]

First some assumptions:

1) Pats will be running a 3-4 two-gap base. Saw nothing in FA to counter this.

2) Pats carpet-bombed 2 positions in FA (WR and interior OL) because they have no targets at those positions early in the draft.

3) Three-year contracts (Fanene, Gregory) = A significant role on the team

4) Nobody is going to give up significant draft picks to get any Pats players (Hoyer, Mallett, Welker)

5) The Pats trading picks into future years (the "2nd round dividend") is a philosophy and not just a yearly coincidence

If any of these are misguided, my selections start to veer off the road...

#27 - Traded to ATL (Pick #55 + 2013 1st round pick)
Belichick anticipates weaker than normal interest in trading a future #1 so he jumps at the chance to get Atlanta's pick. Falcons need OT help and it won't be there at #55. If Saints recover, Panthers improve and Bucs rebound then the Falcons could underachieve this year.

#31 - DE Kendall Reyes
Some needed youth on the DL with the ability to eat up blocks next to Wilfork. A safe pick in the trenches at a position curiously neglected in FA.

#48 - OLB Andre Branch
With a bunch of pass rushers rising (McClellin, Mercilus, Jones, Perry), someone will have to fall. Branch has experience playing on his feet, plays under control and holds up well against the run.

#55 - CB Alfonzo Dennard
Physical corner will excellent instincts and reactions. Not a turn-n-run guy which has him dropping from 1st round consideration. Put him in the slot though (bumping Arrington back to ST ace/depth guy) and watch him flourish in an area of weakness for the Pats.

#62 - Traded to Carolina (Pick #104 + 2013 2nd round pick)
Already hit the top 3 needs so they jump on a chance to get more ammo for 2013.

#93 - OLB Cam Johnson
Should be higher but sickle cell trait will scare teams off. Classic value pick that fills the early-2011 Mark Anderson role.

#104 - S Antonio Allen
Absolutely no reason why Allen slips this far, but he almost certainly will. Group think struggles to find a natural role for him, but someone that looks and plays like Rodney should find a way on the field. Starts as a big-hitting ST guy but should become more fairly quickly.

#126 - RB Robert Turbin
Another physical back to pair with Ridley. Doesn't have Ridley's ability to get to the outside, but is a punishing inside runner. If Ridley and Vereen are healthy, he would be a gameday inactive. If either are hurt, a great option particularly as a clock-killer.

Not as sexy as some mocks but they are all physical guys that play with an attitude. Fills needs and still invests in the future with an extra 1st and 2nd in 2013.

 

[ay-yo]

First some assumptions:

1) Pats will be running a 3-4 two-gap base. Saw nothing in FA to counter this.

2) Pats carpet-bombed 2 positions in FA (WR and interior OL) because they have no targets at those positions early in the draft.

Agreed. Even later in the draft I question spending a pick on somebody likely to be cut.

3) Three-year contracts (Fanene, Gregory) = A significant role on the team

It looks like Gregory will start at FS given unless we draft Barron or Smith. Even then Gregory might still start.

4) Nobody is going to give up significant draft picks to get any Pats players (Hoyer, Mallett, Welker)

5) The Pats trading picks into future years (the "2nd round dividend") is a philosophy and not just a yearly coincidence

Partially agree. (BTW this is a topic that we could make a thread out of. The value is too good to pass up most times. However, I believe BB will cash in at some point but the value has to be there. For instance, if you believe Fletcher Cox is the next JJ Watt, or that Ingram is the next JPP/Aldon Smith, then that player is worth both our 1s.

However I'm not sold Ingram is the next Smith, and Cox will probably cost more than our 2 1s. In that case I agree that trading down and out is the best course of action.

If any of these are misguided, my selections start to veer off the road...

#27 - Traded to ATL (Pick #55 + 2013 1st round pick)
Belichick anticipates weaker than normal interest in trading a future #1 so he jumps at the chance to get Atlanta's pick. Falcons need OT help and it won't be there at #55. If Saints recover, Panthers improve and Bucs rebound then the Falcons could underachieve this year.

#31 - DE Kendall Reyes
Some needed youth on the DL with the ability to eat up blocks next to Wilfork. A safe pick in the trenches at a position curiously neglected in FA.

#48 - OLB Andre Branch
With a bunch of pass rushers rising (McClellin, Mercilus, Jones, Perry), someone will have to fall. Branch has experience playing on his feet, plays under control and holds up well against the run.

#55 - CB Alfonzo Dennard
Physical corner will excellent instincts and reactions. Not a turn-n-run guy which has him dropping from 1st round consideration. Put him in the slot though (bumping Arrington back to ST ace/depth guy) and watch him flourish in an area of weakness for the Pats.

#62 - Traded to Carolina (Pick #104 + 2013 2nd round pick)
Already hit the top 3 needs so they jump on a chance to get more ammo for 2013.

#93 - OLB Cam Johnson
Should be higher but sickle cell trait will scare teams off. Classic value pick that fills the early-2011 Mark Anderson role.

#104 - S Antonio Allen
Absolutely no reason why Allen slips this far, but he almost certainly will. Group think struggles to find a natural role for him, but someone that looks and plays like Rodney should find a way on the field. Starts as a big-hitting ST guy but should become more fairly quickly.

#126 - RB Robert Turbin
Another physical back to pair with Ridley. Doesn't have Ridley's ability to get to the outside, but is a punishing inside runner. If Ridley and Vereen are healthy, he would be a gameday inactive. If either are hurt, a great option particularly as a clock-killer.

Not as sexy as some mocks but they are all physical guys that play with an attitude. Fills needs and still invests in the future with an extra 1st and 2nd in 2013.

I like the positions you targeted (IMO a RB has a better chance at making this roster than an OL or WR) and the picks for next year you got. Don't like Dennard, do like Cam Johnson.

 

[Off The Grid]

With trade:

1st round trade Patriots send 27+31 to KC

11 - Quinton Coples DE North Carolina



48 - Jayron Hosely CB Viginia Tech



62 - Brandon Taylor S LSU



93 - Terrell Manning OLB NC State



126 - Tommy Streeter WR Miami

Ah, a refreshing change of pace, there, Brother Aleus.

A very distinct focus, too: DownField, and one very prominent Edge Rusher.

Not what I would do, but very enjoyable to read.

 

[ay-yo]

I have offense (24) and ST (5) already filled w/ players under contract.

Defense: 19
DL: Fanene, Deaderick, Wilfork, Brace, Love, Pryor - 6
DE / OLB: Scott - 1
LB: Nink, Mayo, Spikes, Fletcher - 4
CB: McCourty, Dowling, Arrington, Moore, Allen - 5
S: Chung, Gregory, - 2

Resign Andre Carter, I got only 4 spots to fill.

As I said in the previous post I'd like to trade up but just don't see a scenario that makes sense. The top DL (Poe, Brockers) are projects. I don't love the idea of giving up a lot to get Barron when he hasn't had a combine or pro day. And I don't see enough variance between a mid 1st DE/OLB and a mid 2nd DE/OLB to justify a move. For instance I'm not sold that Perry is worth more than Curry and a future 2. So here's where I go instead:

1a - traded to the 35-40 plus Pats get a future 2nd

1b - Devon Still - He was rated as a mid 1st for a while. I think if he learns to play w/ a lower pad level he'll be a beast. Was a can't miss player while you were watching PSU.

2a - Vinny Curry - 2 years w/ very good production, team captain, just had a great combine - I kinda sound like Patsderoer

2b - Zack Brown - Could go Lavonte David, I like both players. David has a higher floor, Brown has a higher ceiling. We seem to swing for the fences in round 2 so I go w/ Brown. Worst case scenario the guy replaces Tracy White as a ST only / emergency backer. Best case he is stud sub package player neutralizing TE's throughout the league.

2c - Brandon Taylor - We've had a lot of contact w/ this guy. Much better value grabbing a guy here instead of reaching for Barron or Smith.

3 and 4 - trade for 2013 picks

 

[Off The Grid]

First some assumptions:

1) Pats will be running a 3-4 two-gap base. Saw nothing in FA to counter this.

2) Pats carpet-bombed 2 positions in FA (WR and interior OL) because they have no targets at those positions early in the draft.

3) Three-year contracts (Fanene, Gregory) = A significant role on the team

4) Nobody is going to give up significant draft picks to get any Pats players (Hoyer, Mallett, Welker)

5) The Pats trading picks into future years (the "2nd round dividend") is a philosophy and not just a yearly coincidence

If any of these are misguided, my selections start to veer off the road...

#27 - Traded to ATL (Pick #55 + 2013 1st round pick)

Belichick anticipates weaker than normal interest in trading a future #1 so he jumps at the chance to get Atlanta's pick. Falcons need OT help and it won't be there at #55. If Saints recover, Panthers improve and Bucs rebound then the Falcons could underachieve this year.

#31 - DE Kendall Reyes



Some needed youth on the DL with the ability to eat up blocks next to Wilfork. A safe pick in the trenches at a position curiously neglected in FA.

#48 - OLB Andre Branch



With a bunch of pass rushers rising (McClellin, Mercilus, Jones, Perry), someone will have to fall. Branch has experience playing on his feet, plays under control and holds up well against the run.

#55 - CB Alfonzo Dennard



Physical corner will excellent instincts and reactions. Not a turn-n-run guy which has him dropping from 1st round consideration. Put him in the slot though (bumping Arrington back to ST ace/depth guy) and watch him flourish in an area of weakness for the Pats.

#62 - Traded to Carolina (Pick #104 + 2013 2nd round pick)

Already hit the top 3 needs so they jump on a chance to get more ammo for 2013.

#93 - OLB Cam Johnson



Should be higher but sickle cell trait will scare teams off. Classic value pick that fills the early-2011 Mark Anderson role.

#104 - S Antonio Allen



Absolutely no reason why Allen slips this far, but he almost certainly will. Group think struggles to find a natural role for him, but someone that looks and plays like Rodney should find a way on the field. Starts as a big-hitting ST guy but should become more fairly quickly.

#126 - RB Robert Turbin



Another physical back to pair with Ridley. Doesn't have Ridley's ability to get to the outside, but is a punishing inside runner. If Ridley and Vereen are healthy, he would be a gameday inactive. If either are hurt, a great option particularly as a clock-killer.

Not as sexy as some mocks but they are all physical guys that play with an attitude. Fills needs and still invests in the future with an extra 1st and 2nd in 2013.

My GOD, I love the way you put this together.

1 ~ I see it differently: My best guess is that we're more prepared to run the "43" more often, due, first, to the complete absence of classic Belichickian "34" Ends ~ Jon Fanene and Brandon Deaderick being "Tweeners" ~ but I can certainly see your Argument, as we finished the year playing a lot of "34".

2 ~ I love the Carpet Bomb analogy!!

3 ~ I would say that 3 Years contracts merely probably mean a roster spot...But if I was running things, we'd draft so deeply and well at D Back that Gregory would be vapor.

4 ~ Completely disagree: I think all 3 of them would draw at least a 3rd, and Welker, far more.

5 ~ Of course. That's blatantly obvious, so we certainly agree, there.

6 ~ The Falcons Trade is Perfect. Exactly the sort of thing we might do.

7 ~ A really well-considered and constructed Mock. Wilforkian, even. Props!! :rocker:

 

[Off The Grid]

I have offense (24) and ST (5) already filled w/ players under contract.

Defense: 19
DL: Fanene, Deaderick, Wilfork, Brace, Love, Pryor - 6
DE / OLB: Scott - 1
LB: Nink, Mayo, Spikes, Fletcher - 4
CB: McCourty, Dowling, Arrington, Moore, Allen - 5
S: Chung, Gregory, - 2

Resign Andre Carter, I got only 4 spots to fill.

As I said in the previous post I'd like to trade up but just don't see a scenario that makes sense. The top DL (Poe, Brockers) are projects. I don't love the idea of giving up a lot to get Barron when he hasn't had a combine or pro day. And I don't see enough variance between a mid 1st DE/OLB and a mid 2nd DE/OLB to justify a move. For instance I'm not sold that Perry is worth more than Curry and a future 2. So here's where I go instead:

1a - traded to the 35-40 plus Pats get a future 2nd

1b - Devon Still - He was rated as a mid 1st for a while. I think if he learns to play w/ a lower pad level he'll be a beast. Was a can't miss player while you were watching PSU.



2a - Vinny Curry - 2 years w/ very good production, team captain, just had a great combine - I kinda sound like Patsderoer



2b - Zack Brown - Could go Lavonte David, I like both players. David has a higher floor, Brown has a higher ceiling. We seem to swing for the fences in round 2 so I go w/ Brown. Worst case scenario the guy replaces Tracy White as a ST only / emergency backer. Best case he is stud sub package player neutralizing TE's throughout the league.



2c - Brandon Taylor - We've had a lot of contact w/ this guy. Much better value grabbing a guy here instead of reaching for Barron or Smith.



3 and 4 - trade for 2013 picks

4 Defenders!! BEAUTY!! :rocker:

 

[State]

Great mocks, guys.

I'd just like to add that Still is likely an early second-rounder.

Jerel Worthy, though he's only 6'2", is going to be a late first-rounder.

I think Worthy should get the nod over Still at 31. He holds up remarkably well with the double team, such as when Wisconsin sent their two top guys, the center and the guard at him two years ago. It's amazing.

Even though he frustrates by often anticipating the snap and jumping offsides, he's more disruptive than Still IMO.

Also, I increasingly agree with Tippett56 in Houston that Harrison Smith is overrated. If we drafted him in the first, I'd be disappointed.

 

[BradyManny]

I'm slowly feeling a competent knowledge of this draft, thanks to OTG and his threads. And the good folks posting cutups on youtube, or nepatriotsdraft, etc.

But I'm still not ready to throw a mock out there.

Basically, I would rather suggest draft "philosophies" that I hope and expect the Patriots to be taking.

As OTG has been saying - this has to be a defense-centric draft. No doubt about it. The question is, how and where does that line up with where the Pats currently pick, and where they can get to via trade in the draft.

In terms of needs, I see the Pats aggressively seeking:

- reinforcements along the D-Line
- an excellent nickel CB
- a rangey safety to complement Chung
- upgrade at outside corner (depending upon how confident they feel in McCourty's return to form, and Dowling's health)
- a nickel cover LB
- potential upgrades at either OLB position (with a lesser short term need on an elephant kind of guy if Carter returns; Ninko provides adequate, but upgradeable player on the other side)

In terms of where we can address that:

DL - early round 1 (Brockers, Cox - requiring trade up); late round 1 (Reyes); mid to late draft (Hicks)

Nickel CB - I think a guy who can cover the slot with excellent ability is a must in this draft. Good news - there are plenty of options. My favorite might be Boykins since he offers so much versatility. We can grab him at the end of round 2. I also like Leonard Johnson.

Outside CB - Jenkins is it for me. I like Gilmore, but don't see the value. If Jenkins drops to 31, I'm intrigued, but want to push back and pick up some late rounders and more picks in the 40-100 range, so I hold off.

Nickel cover LB - Lavonte David is intriguing, even if he otherwise isn't a fit. I don't think the value will be there, so I don't think this will get addressed in the draft, outside of some late fliers or UDFA. You can't hit all needs in the draft.

OLB - I feel uncertainty as to who would be a good guy to groom behind Carter/Scott. I need to reread OTG's thread on that. I like McClellin as a guy who can replace Ninko down the line and offer greater upside. Ideally, we can address that mid to late round 2, but that might not work out.

Safety - Again, I need to do more research here. I like Trumaine Johnson as a FS conversion, and there's some other guys. A lot of the actual safeties don't interest me much. I think it's time for the Patriots to get more range on the field, and just get some athletes out there who can fly. Then you have the flexibility to let guys like Spikes stay on the field, and you lessen the need for a nickel LB. This need will probably have to wait until rounds 3-5 I'm guessing.

Bottom lines for me:

I see us absolutely having to address DL early, since that is our best, and maybe only, real shot. It's a must. We can't walk out of round 1 without getting a big fella.

I see the most depth in this draft at CB - and I see CBs that can fit all the things we need - outside, slot, and conversion to FS.

In my ideal world, we get Reyes in round 1, trade 31 down, pick up more picks in the 40-100 range, keep trading down and getting some picks in 5-7, and/or in 2013. With whatever we've accumulated, in my wildest dreams we somehow get something like Reyes, McClellin, Jenkins, Boykins, and whoever can project to FS.

Throw all those guys on the field and see what happens the next time Eli Manning feels like ruining our existence. Man, I want to get some athletes on D and play that little sh*thead again in the Super Bowl. Sorry, got sidetracked.

I'll aim to turn that into a coherent mock by next Thurs...

 

[Metaphors]

3 ~ I would say that 3 Years contracts merely probably mean a roster spot...But if I was running things, we'd draft so deeply and well at D Back that Gregory would be vapor.

I was more thinking about roles rather than roster spots. Fanene should fill the interior rush role, making someone like Wolfe (who I like) less likely to be drafted. With Gregory getting a 3-year deal relatively early in FA, that tells me Belichick isn't hopeful in acquiring a centerfielder (which should be his role since he was miscast in SD).

4 ~ Completely disagree: I think all 3 of them would draw at least a 3rd, and Welker, far more.

Not saying that they aren't worth relatively high draft picks, just that the Pats won't get offers for them in the next 10 days. The supply of QBs (including this draft class) is enough to satisfy the demand, reducing the bids for Mallett and Hoyer. As for Welker, the Pats will require a #1 and nobody is giving up a #1 with the depth of this draft class at WR.

 

[Off The Grid]

I was more thinking about roles rather than roster spots. Fanene should fill the interior rush role, making someone like Wolfe (who I like) less likely to be drafted. With Gregory getting a 3-year deal relatively early in FA, that tells me Belichick isn't hopeful in acquiring a centerfielder (which should be his role since he was miscast in SD).

Can't argue with that.

Not saying that they aren't worth relatively high draft picks, just that the Pats won't get offers for them in the next 10 days. The supply of QBs (including this draft class) is enough to satisfy the demand, reducing the bids for Mallett and Hoyer. As for Welker, the Pats will require a #1 and nobody is giving up a #1 with the depth of this draft class at WR.

You make an important point, I think. It's been mentioned before, but not much, for a long time.

I can only really see 3 teams that are optimally good potential QB Trade Partners:

1 ~ Beefalo
2 ~ Fish
3 ~ Browns

I PRAY someone will persuade me that there is MORE...

But as it is, that is a VERY thin Market...which is why ~ even though NOBODY is pounding the table harder than me on trading BOTH Hoyer and Mallett ~ I have an hard time buying the notion that teams will be beating down our DOOR for those guys...MIND you...

That's STILL plenty of room for us to roll Hoyer and Mallet for #67 and #72 and a bit of change!!

 

[ZoisKing]

@BradyManny,

Love the analysis you just laid down there. Even though I don't agree with some of your sentiments, I do appreciate a lot of points you brought up.

If we took Harrison Smith in the first, then I'd say I have absolutely no clue what the Patriots are looking for. He's not the level of talent that warrants that pick, and bypasses again the most obvious need of pass rush.

 

[BradyManny]

@BradyManny,

Love the analysis you just laid down there. Even though I don't agree with some of your sentiments, I do appreciate a lot of points you brought up.

If we took Harrison Smith in the first, then I'd say I have absolutely no clue what the Patriots are looking for. He's not the level of talent that warrants that pick, and bypasses again the most obvious need of pass rush.

Thanks, ZoisKing, really appreciate it.

Part of the beauty of draft season is even when fans have differing opinions on needs/players, it's still all very constructive dialogue. Whereas during the season, or in game threads for instance, things are can be a little less productive.

 

[SeymourTrophies]

I will sip the Harrison Smith haterade with my pinky out. I just don't think he can read the field well enough to be what we need out of him. He can play the line of scrimmage, and he will get in on some tackles. He's not bad in 1v1 coverage either. He just does not look like the center fielder we need right now. If we are giving up on Chung, which can't be completely out of the realm given his health and coverage issues, I might be ok with Smith. Otherwise:nooo:

I see a lot of potential in the 2nd round this year. There is a lot of reaching going on for need, which is why Barron is soaring up the board. Some real gems will be there, even if we trade back. Now, as has been in the past, it's not about being in position for Wild Bill. It's about making the darn pick.

On another note, Coples' arm . Why would he do that for a frat?

 

[ZoisKing]

On another note, Coples' arm . Why would he do that for a frat?

Back in my highschool days, we had several students who had this done.

This takes a dull mind to do IMO.

Some of them had infections because of this.....and I must say that it served them right.

 

[ZoisKing]

Thanks, ZoisKing, really appreciate it.

Part of the beauty of draft season is even when fans have differing opinions on needs/players, it's still all very constructive dialogue. Whereas during the season, or in game threads for instance, things are can be a little less productive.

You bet man!

You put a lot of thought and effort into that analysis. We perceive the same needs, though we might attack the draft a little differently.

Keep up the good work, I'll be paying attention

 

[patsfaninpa]

Wes Bunting has a new mock out today. Sign me up!!

1a Mark Barron - S - Alabama
1b Nick Perry - OLB/DE - USC

Mock Draft 7.0 | National Football Post

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Ah...Reading minds, now, are we, my friend?

To claim that you know for a fact that "how the Patriots view it" is that we should just walk away from, for instance, an additional 2012 early 3rd Rounder ~ if that happens to be what we could get for Hoyer ~ simply because he's already provided us great value is kind of ridiculous, dontcha think??

On the one hand, I realize that what I wrote wasn't quite what I meant to say. On the other hand, you're also reading more than I meant to say:

You said:

Losing Hoyer for ~ at the very most ~ a 2014 3rd Rounder ~ just to have him around for one more year would suck.

What I should have said is this:

* The Patriots have already gotten more from Hoyer than they had any right to expect from an UDFA.
* That's not to say that they won't/shouldn't trade him, merely that I don't think they'll see it as a loss if they keep him in 2012 and don't get anything more than a 2014 comp pick for him.
* I feel confident in that statement because there's precedent: the Patriots franchised Samuel and brought him back with a clause that prevented them from franchising him again in 2008. They could have traded him if they had wanted to, but decided that one more year from Samuel was more valuable than the "difference" in pick values.

 

[Off The Grid]

On the one hand, I realize that what I wrote wasn't quite what I meant to say. On the other hand, you're also reading more than I meant to say:

You said:



What I should have said is this:

* The Patriots have already gotten more from Hoyer than they had any right to expect from an UDFA.

* That's not to say that they won't/shouldn't trade him, merely that I don't think they'll see it as a loss if they keep him in 2012 and don't get anything more than a 2014 comp pick for him.

* I feel confident in that statement because there's precedent: the Patriots franchised Samuel and brought him back with a clause that prevented them from franchising him again in 2008. They could have traded him if they had wanted to, but decided that one more year from Samuel was more valuable than the "difference" in pick values.

Fair enough, my friend.

But I never actually disputed your point ~ and I tend to agree, in fact, that the Patriots will almost certainly let Hoyer walk, as they did, Samuel.

My only point is that I...would not.

Interesting food for thought, though.

 

[Sfpat]

I don't think it's unreasable to think the Pats could get more from Hoyer. St. Louis got 2 Super Bowls (and a win) from an UDFA QB, Carolina got a SB appearance from an UDFA QB and Dallas has had about six good years of performance from an UDFA QB. UDFA QBs can be pretty valuable.

 

[ATippett56]

The ATippett56 Last Ditch 2012 NFL Mock Draft!

You want offense, then go away!

2012 New England Patriots Potential Draft Scenario with potential possibilities:

#27 Shea McClellin, Andre Branch
#31 Trade with the Eagles for #51, #200 and a 2013 2nd Round Draft Pick
#48, #51 Trade with the Vikings for #35, #66
#35 Kendall Reyes, Devon Still
#62 Jamell Fleming, Alfonzo Dennard (possible conversions to safety)
#66 Josh Chapman (PUP/IR Candidate), Alameda Ta'amu
#93 Marvin Jones, Greg Childs, Cyrus Gray, Robert Turbin, Ron Brooks
#126 Ryan Broyles (PUP/IR Candidate)
#200 Tony Dye, Jerron McMillian

Preferences bolded

Now, if the New England Patriots could find a sucker to trade Ron Brace for at least a seventh round draft pick. Calling Al Davis from the grave!

P.S. I really hate this safety draft class!