Restocking the Patriots: first notions (offense)

[MoLewisrocks]

Also the same result if Gronk had no ankle sprain.

Yup, but schit happens every season and Branch's value even to an upgraded WR unit should be apparent to anyone who isn't ADHD or fantasy obcessed. And the thing many seem to miss about Branch is he STILL does all the little things even when he isn't personally being targeted, and Bill and the coaches love that about him. Not to mention he knows exactly what the drill is here and he's already indicated he's down with being whatever this team needs him to be including mentor and stop gap. And if they get a guy like Lloyd in to replace him and he works out allowing Branch to replace Ocho...he will still produce at a decent level as a 3rd WR because of his knowledge of the system and connection with TFB.

 

[PittPatriot]

I don't think the team is ready to hand over the RB 1 position to an unproven 2nd year player. I expect the backfield to look exactly the same as this year, with Vereen taking Faulk's spot.

I think they handed it over to LoMo in 2007…for what it's worth.

 

[fumbrunner]

I think they handed it over to LoMo in 2007…for what it's worth.

Much different situation. Dillon was at the end of his career. Bjge is still relatively young and by all accounts is a true patriot type. Sure, he doesn't break the big play often. But luckily our coach looks for things beyond fantasy football stats

 

[Deus Irae]

Much different situation. Dillon was at the end of his career. Bjge is still relatively young and by all accounts is a true patriot type. Sure, he doesn't break the big play often. But luckily our coach looks for things beyond fantasy football stats

BJGE has 510 official carries in his 4 years with the Patriots. Those 510 official carries have resulted in 5 TOTAL runs of 20 yards or more, and 0 runs of 40 yards or more. In 2 of his 4 seasons, he's not had a single carry of 20+ yards, and his career long is 33 yards.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis: Career Stats at NFL.com

Those aren't just fantasy football stats. Those are stats which tell opposing teams that they don't have to worry about getting gashed by a BJGE run. Hell, Ridley has already tied BJGE's career best of 33 yards and gotten 5 carriers of 20+ yards in 87 attempts.

Stevan Ridley: Career Stats at NFL.com

 

[Professor Frink]

I like the idea of giving more carries to Vareen and Ridley, but I still think BJGE can have a role on this team.

First of all, where did this notion come from that he can't play special teams? Hell, the only reason he was on the team his first few years were because of his ST abilities. Second, just because he isn't a big play threat doesn't mean he can't provide value to this offense. He would likely be the best pass protector, and would be perfect as the guy to bring in to wear down defenses in the second half. Oh yeah, he'd also be the top guy in redzone/goalline situations. He has the confidence of the coaching staff, and provides insurance against the new guys getting hurt or not realizing their potential.

If another team wants to overpay him, I'm fine with letting him walk. But if he can be had for 2.5-3 million I think they should lock him up.

 

[ausbacker]

Yet Brady run QB sneaks all the time on the goal line and busts up his shoulder doing so.

I will agree though that the GL area is the one spot where I don't have as much confidence in Ridley and Vareen, however the Pats have plenty of passing plays that are effective inside the 5.

I fail to see how it's Green-Ellis' fault that Brady runs the QB sneak.

 

[supafly]

Just to explain my reasoning behind the Branch re-signing here:

1.) He'd be able to mentor Adams, who seems like he's got some of the same skills

2.) If Adams isn't ready yet, Branch would work well in the empty backfield sets

Lloyd
Welker
Gronk
Hernandez
Branch

I think Branch is in decline, but I don't think we're looking at a complete breakdown, and I think he's still got another season of decent play left in him. I don't want him as a starter but, if he'll take an appropriate deal, I see him as still having real value to the team.

I agree with this thought, Deus.

There's no reason to think that Branch cannot still be effective for the right price, at least for another yr in a lessened role.

And if the injury bug should hit, we know that we have a guy who can step in and start with no problem.

I would love to see Branch take over the role that 85 had here this yr. That still allows him to contribute about 30-35 catches a yr, and offers a great viable depth option.

 

[supafly]

I like the idea of giving more carries to Vareen and Ridley, but I still think BJGE can have a role on this team.

First of all, where did this notion come from that he can't play special teams? Hell, the only reason he was on the team his first few years were because of his ST abilities. Second, just because he isn't a big play threat doesn't mean he can't provide value to this offense. He would likely be the best pass protector, and would be perfect as the guy to bring in to wear down defenses in the second half. Oh yeah, he'd also be the top guy in redzone/goalline situations. He has the confidence of the coaching staff, and provides insurance against the new guys getting hurt or not realizing their potential.

If another team wants to overpay him, I'm fine with letting him walk. But if he can be had for 2.5-3 million I think they should lock him up.

Agreed. There's no doubt there's a spot on the team for him, and he certainly has skills that are worthy enough as a RBBC player. I tend to think that his injury this yr really hurt him, and that he can offer something closer to what we saw in the first NYJ game.

I think this situation will go a bit deeper into the FA period, as he/his agent/maybe even the Pats will want to see what the market is for his services. It may be awhile before this situation is resolved.

I would agree on a deal of around 2 yrs/4.5 to 5 million, so we're both around the same number in regards to his worth here. The question becomes how much he is looking for.

 

[Leemo]

I agree with your re-sign lists for offense although I'd like to get Reggie Wayne AND Lloyd as well as going after a WR when the time is right in the draft after of course cutting Ocho and possibly Branch. Re sign Slater mostly for his ST work though. The more I think about it the more I think we go dull in the draft and take Peter Konz, C, with our first pick then trade back with the 31st pick (hope i'm wrong). BJGE is a player that alot of our fans simply do not realise his value. The guy has never fumbled on a carry for us, quite a stat, ball security is essential. I'm all for Ridley/Vereen/Woodhead but can they look after the ball? We don't know...

I know this thread is titled offense but my defense views are here two... IMO we need to get a safety in FA to start along side Chung, the best bets would be Dashon Goldson or Micheal Griffin. Dowling and McCourty can start at CB imo with Moore and Arrington and a drafted CB next i n the depth chart. To be honest I would to trade Arrington if possible, I don't rate him at all and with all his INT's I think teams may be interested in him right now, could be a good time to move him on. I hope we re-sign Anderson, Warren and Carter. In the draft I think we should go defense with most picks aside from the WR mentioned earlier. OLB, DE, CB, S. Bottom line is defense defense defense and I really hope we use most of of early picks this year...

 

[supafly]

One change needs to be made already, apparently. The Patriots have apparently released Ohrnberger (Just saw another thread title claiming he and Wright have been let go), so he can be removed from the backups list.

As has been noted in another thread, these moves today have apparently freed up another 3 million towards the cap.

Does anyone see these moves coinciding with the possible signing of one of our own in the next couple/few days? Or just a routine slash or two?

Is it out of the realm to think that they are hard at work in the Welker deal, as I would presume that they would much rather know where they stand with a lesser-cap hit prior to the March 13 start of FA? Or is this just wishful thinking?

 

[nabwong]

Branch still has great value in the no-huddle. Of course, that doesn't mean that some other receiver couldn't pick that up especially since there's a full pre-season. But still, there are some plays that made the chemistry between Brady and Branch evident, Broncos in the playoffs and last year against Bears come to mind. I think branch will be #3 at best next year though. Back on vet minimum or close to it.

I like Adams. We seriously need to returner.

 

[supafly]

I agree with your re-sign lists for offense although I'd like to get Reggie Wayne AND Lloyd as well as going after a WR when the time is right in the draft after of course cutting Ocho and possibly Branch. Re sign Slater mostly for his ST work though. The more I think about it the more I think we go dull in the draft and take Peter Konz, C, with our first pick then trade back with the 31st pick (hope i'm wrong). BJGE is a player that alot of our fans simply do not realise his value. The guy has never fumbled on a carry for us, quite a stat, ball security is essential. I'm all for Ridley/Vereen/Woodhead but can they look after the ball? We don't know...

I know this thread is titled offense but my defense views are here two... IMO we need to get a safety in FA to start along side Chung, the best bets would be Dashon Goldson or Micheal Griffin. Dowling and McCourty can start at CB imo with Moore and Arrington and a drafted CB next i n the depth chart. To be honest I would to trade Arrington if possible, I don't rate him at all and with all his INT's I think teams may be interested in him right now, could be a good time to move him on. I hope we re-sign Anderson, Warren and Carter. In the draft I think we should go defense with most picks aside from the WR mentioned earlier. OLB, DE, CB, S. Bottom line is defense defense defense and I really hope we use most of of early picks this year...

I tend to have thoughts in agreement with you in regards to Arrington also. I think most of his INT's were pretty lucky. That said, his QB vs rating was very good about halfway through the year, although that may have had something to do with McCourty's struggles and teams choosing to throw towards him instead.

I haven't seen anything since the numbers that went around towards the middle of the yr, but at the time Arrington's QB vs rating was 44. In drastic comparison, McCourty's was 120. I am curious as to if anyone has seen anything in terms of end of the yr numbers for this stat?

Another thought was that Arrington did a pretty nice job of slowing down Cruz in the SB game, although I expect that he had help with a bracket scheme. Regardless, I don't mind Arrington at all as a nickle/slot CB. I do hope to improve on the aspect of seeing him play outside like most of this yr though.

I don't think the CB situation is 1/2 as dire as some here. With the return of Dowling, the progression of Moore, and a hopeful return to form for DMcCourty, we now have a decent CB tandem when you add in Arrington as a slot CB. One more mid/lower level FA acquisition or even mid level draft pick would be more than sufficient here.

I agree with you that the problem is certainly at the safety position. Any of the possible FA's that you listed would be fine with me...Goldson, Griffen, maybe even Nelson(?). I also think they need to choose a safety in the draft too though. I wouldn't mind Ihedigbo as depth and ST play.

As far as the WR---I am all for your selections of Wayne and Lloyd, and I would be very hopeful for either one + a draft choice.

I also agree with the thought of a center, but probably later in the draft with Brewster or the kid from Georgia. One of them could likely be had in the 3rd in my opinion.

 

[supafly]

Branch still has great value in the no-huddle. Of course, that doesn't mean that some other receiver couldn't pick that up especially since there's a full pre-season. But still, there are some plays that made the chemistry between Brady and Branch evident, Broncos in the playoffs and last year against Bears come to mind. I think branch will be #3 at best next year though. Back on vet minimum or close to it.

I like Adams. We seriously need to returner.

I would imagine that the return game (or lack thereof) was a huge sore spot for Belichick, and will be looked at carefully with an eye towards a player like that.

 

[fumbrunner]

BJGE has 510 official carries in his 4 years with the Patriots. Those 510 official carries have resulted in 5 TOTAL runs of 20 yards or more, and 0 runs of 40 yards or more. In 2 of his 4 seasons, he's not had a single carry of 20+ yards, and his career long is 33 yards.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis: Career Stats at NFL.com

Those aren't just fantasy football stats. Those are stats which tell opposing teams that they don't have to worry about getting gashed by a BJGE run. Hell, Ridley has already tied BJGE's career best of 33 yards and gotten 5 carriers of 20+ yards in 87 attempts.

Stevan Ridley: Career Stats at NFL.com

Which is why Ridley is a nice complement to BJGE. No one could discount BJGE's propensity for positive yards on carries and his ability to score in the red zone. those are valuable attributes that for whatever reason seem to be discounted by a number of posters on this board. Luckily, it hasn't been lost on the coaches.

 

[JackBauer]

Which is why Ridley is a nice complement to BJGE. No one could discount BJGE's propensity for positive yards on carries and his ability to score in the red zone. those are valuable attributes that for whatever reason seem to be discounted by a number of posters on this board. Luckily, it hasn't been lost on the coaches.

They're not discounted. They're recognized as necessary but not sufficient characteristics in a RB1, which is why many of us are keen on upgrading the position.

 

[Gronkandez]

I would agree on a deal of around 2 yrs/4.5 to 5 million, so we're both around the same number in regards to his worth here. The question becomes how much he is looking for.

Ideally he would only be getting 5-10 rushes/game, assuming Ridley/Vareen are healthy, learn the system and can hold onto the ball. If that's the case I don't think he's worth more than 2 years/2.5M.

Without having the luxury of watching practices all year I can't speculte on Vareen's chances of being effective last year but I liked him out of college.

 

[Gronkandez]

Originally Posted by Deus Irae
BJGE has 510 official carries in his 4 years with the Patriots. Those 510 official carries have resulted in 5 TOTAL runs of 20 yards or more, and 0 runs of 40 yards or more. In 2 of his 4 seasons, he's not had a single carry of 20+ yards, and his career long is 33 yards.

Not to pile on the Law Firm, but I will just add that many teams like the Giants and Jets (last year) were playing Nickel virtually the whole game. It worries me that he couldn't make many big plays against this set.

 

[Ron Sellers]

I would imagine that the return game (or lack thereof) was a huge sore spot for Belichick, and will be looked at carefully with an eye towards a player like that.

I felt the return game was not as bad as it appeared to be for two reasons. First, in our minds we were perhaps subconsciously comparing it to previous seasons and that's an apples-to-oranges thing due to the change in kickoffs being moved up five yards.

The second thing can be changed with coaching: I felt the Pats were returning far too many kicks that they should have just taken a knee for a touchback. The Pats returned 60 kickoffs this year, which was the 2nd most in the NFL and just one less than the most returns in the league this season; by comparison the league average was just 46!

In my opinion there were far too many kicks that should the Pats should have taken a touchback that ended up barely coming out to the twenty - or not even that far. I'm going to guess that was a coaching decision to instruct the returner to run it back in those circumstances; with a year to review hopefully the staff will re-evaluate that approach.

A third thing to consider is this: should the blame go on the return man, or his blockers? If it is the players used as return man, perhaps there is somebody else already on the team such as Matthew Slater, Stevan Ridley or Malcolm Williams that has more speed than Woodhead, that can also work this offseason on doing a good enough job of securing the ball that Belichick will trust him to return kicks.

 

[meatface]

I felt the return game was not as bad as it appeared to be for two reasons. First, in our minds we were perhaps subconsciously comparing it to previous seasons and that's an apples-to-oranges thing due to the change in kickoffs being moved up five yards.

The second thing can be changed with coaching: I felt the Pats were returning far too many kicks that they should have just taken a knee for a touchback. The Pats returned 60 kickoffs this year, which was the 2nd most in the NFL and just one less than the most returns in the league this season; by comparison the league average was just 46!

In my opinion there were far too many kicks that should the Pats should have taken a touchback that ended up barely coming out to the twenty - or not even that far. I'm going to guess that was a coaching decision to instruct the returner to run it back in those circumstances; with a year to review hopefully the staff will re-evaluate that approach.

A third thing to consider is this: should the blame go on the return man, or his blockers? If it is the players used as return man, perhaps there is somebody else already on the team such as Matthew Slater, Stevan Ridley or Malcolm Williams that has more speed than Woodhead, that can also work this offseason on doing a good enough job of securing the ball that Belichick will trust him to return kicks.

i know that I just really do not want to see danny woodhead trying to do anymore kick returns. You are absolutely right though they should have taken more touchbacks, but i doubt that anybody on the team right now can be a good return man.

 

[mgteich]

I won't comment on particular draftees. We have another board for that. But it does seem reasonable to expect only one draftee or rookie to make the 53 on offense.

1) NITPICKS
I don't think Lloyd is coming with his current agent. However, there are substitutes available with your plan.
2) I don't want to re-sign Ohrnberger for another year of IR. We just waived him. MacDonald and Thomas are both better choices for a backup OL.

I'm bored, so I thought I'd do a quick fix thread about the offense, based upon current draft positions of soon-to-be rookies, and based upon the current FA crop. So, here goes:

Draft Cox and Poe in the first round, and sign Sign Goldson/Branch/Griffin/Landry for defense, and then....

Draft Adams

Sign Lloyd
Re-sign Welker
Re-sign Koppen
Re-sign Connolly
Re-sign Branch
Release Johnson
Let BJGE walk (Unless he's willing to take committee RB money and he can be RB4)
Convince Light and Waters to return

Starters

Light/Solder
Mankins
Koppen/Connolly
Waters/Connolly
Vollmer/Solder
Gronk
Hernandez
Welker
Lloyd
Ridley
Brady

Bench

Vereen
Woodhead
RB4
Branch
Adams
Edelman
Wendell
Ohrnberger
TE3/FB
Mallett
Hoyer
Cannon (added when tatepatsfan noticed the oversight)

Depending upon how the rest of the draft board falls, drafting another C and/or G could still be an option to compete against the likes of Wendell and Ohrnberger.


Have at it.