Grist For The Mill

[ATippett56]

So you're just going to keep moving the goalposts rather than admitting that your argument continue to suck....?

Your aforementioned pointless comment does not add any quality to this thread whatsoever.

The keys for the New England Patriots offense for 2012-13 NFL Season, especially in the playoffs:

1. Maintain offensive balance no worse than 55% pass - 45% run

2. Eliminate the empty backfield sets altogether

3. Keep Tom Brady under center for at least 50% of the offensive snaps with a running back in the I-formation.

4. Increase the number of screen pass plays to the running backs

5. Eliminate special teams player Matt Slater from the New England Patriots offense

6. Eliminate wide receiver Chad Ochostinko from the New England Patriots offense

 

[Deus Irae]

Your aforementioned pointless comment does not add any quality to this thread whatsoever.

The keys for the New England Patriots offense for 2012-13 NFL Season, especially in the playoffs:

1. Maintain offensive balance no worse than 55% pass - 45% run

2. Eliminate the empty backfield sets altogether

3. Keep Tom Brady under center for at least 50% of the offensive snaps with a running back in the I-formation.

4. Increase the number of screen pass plays to the running backs

5. Eliminate special teams player Matt Slater from the New England Patriots offense

6. Eliminate wide receiver Chad Ochostinko from the New England Patriots offense

And you move the goalposts/try to distract from the fact that your argument sucked, yet again...

 

[ATippett56]

And you move the goalposts/try to distract from the fact that your argument sucked, yet again...

I'm thru with your argumentative nature.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Your aforementioned pointless comment does not add any quality to this thread whatsoever.

The keys for the New England Patriots offense for 2012-13 NFL Season, especially in the playoffs:

1. Maintain offensive balance no worse than 55% pass - 45% run

Quick- name the last team that won a Super Bowl running the ball 45% of the time.

The rest of your points are as baseless as that one, so I don't really feel the need to keep going.

 

[Deus Irae]

I'm thru with your argumentative nature.

How do you not see the hypocrisy in this comment of yours when you can't even admit that you screwed up in your response to BradyFTW!'s post about the Patriots being behind in the Super Bowl?

 

[RhodyPatriot]

Your aforementioned pointless comment does not add any quality to this thread whatsoever.

The keys for the New England Patriots offense for 2012-13 NFL Season, especially in the playoffs:

1. Maintain offensive balance no worse than 55% pass - 45% run

2. Eliminate the empty backfield sets altogether

3. Keep Tom Brady under center for at least 50% of the offensive snaps with a running back in the I-formation.

4. Increase the number of screen pass plays to the running backs

5. Eliminate special teams player Matt Slater from the New England Patriots offense

6. Eliminate wide receiver Chad Ochostinko from the New England Patriots offense

I like it. Takes the pressure off Brady, putting him under center will keep defenses guessing (something that's been sorely lacking) and will improve the ability of the offense to move the ball regardles of the D, the weather, the time on the clock etc. The Patriots have personnel and the ability to be a devastating (devastating means the other team can't get the ball away from them/it does not mean setting all kinds of irrelevant passing records in the regular season ...Zzzzzzzzz) offense if they would just get back to basics.

 

[ATippett56]

Quick- name the last team that won a Super Bowl running the ball 45% of the time.

2008 Pittsburgh Steelers Statistics & Players - Pro-Football-Reference.com

 

[ATippett56]

Quick- name the last team that won a Super Bowl running the ball 45% of the time.

2007 New York Giants Statistics & Players - Pro-Football-Reference.com

 

[ATippett56]

Quick- name the last team that won a Super Bowl running the ball 45% of the time.

2005 Pittsburgh Steelers Statistics & Players - Pro-Football-Reference.com

 

[ATippett56]

Quick- name the last team that won a Super Bowl running the ball 45% of the time.

2004 New England Patriots Statistics & Players - Pro-Football-Reference.com

 

[Deus Irae]

2008 Pittsburgh Steelers Statistics & Players - Pro-Football-Reference.com

41% (28 runs, 40 passes)

2007 New York Giants Statistics & Players - Pro-Football-Reference.com

42% (25 runs, 34 passes)

2011: 41%
2010: 25%
2009: 32%
2008: 41%
2007: 42%
2006: 53%

So you have to go back to 2006 to find a team that won the Super Bowl while running the ball 45% of the time or more, and that was the Colts against an overmatched Bears team that only managed 10 points on offense in a 29-17 loss.

 

[BradyFTW!]

What Deus said ^. But even if you want to make it a full-season thing, and not Super Bowl-specific, it's been three straight years of strongly pass-first offenses winning the SB. The Saints were exactly 55-45 in favor of pass in 2009, the Packers were 58-42 in 2010, and the Giants this year were 60/40. The Patriots, by comparison, were also 60/40.

Please take a moment and let that sink in: the Patriots ran the ball more frequently than the Giants did in 2011. The trend is clear, and the Patriots are right on the forefront of it where you should want them to be. The NFL has changed, and luckily for us Belichick is as good as anyone at spotting and adapting to these changes. A lot of you seem to want to drag the NFL back into the past, but that ship has sailed, and likely for good. I don't like the direction that the league is headed in anymore than you seem to, but that doesn't change reality.

 

[ATippett56]

I like it. Takes the pressure off Brady, putting him under center will keep defenses guessing (something that's been sorely lacking) and will improve the ability of the offense to move the ball regardles of the D, the weather, the time on the clock etc. The Patriots have personnel and the ability to be a devastating (devastating means the other team can't get the ball away from them/it does not mean setting all kinds of irrelevant passing records in the regular season ...Zzzzzzzzz) offense if they would just get back to basics.

During the 2010-11 NFL Season, the New England Patriots lead the NFL in points scored.

2010 New England Patriots Statistics & Players - Pro-Football-Reference.com

The pass-run ratio for the New England Patriots offense during the 2010-11 NFL regular season was 53% (507/961) pass - 47% (454/961) run.

However, in the 2010-11 AFC Divisional Playoffs versus the New York Jets, the New England Patriots offense decided to go pass happy and lost the game.

New England Patriots offense versus New York Jets defense in the 2010-11 AFC Divisional Playoffs:

45 pass attempts/27 rush attempts = 62.5% pass/37.5% run

 

[Snake Eyes]

What Deus said ^. But even if you want to make it a full-season thing, and not Super Bowl-specific, it's been three straight years of strongly pass-first offenses winning the SB. The Saints were exactly 55-45 in favor of pass in 2009, the Packers were 58-42 in 2010, and the Giants this year were 60/40. The Patriots, by comparison, were also 60/40.

Please take a moment and let that sink in: the Patriots ran the ball more frequently than the Giants did in 2011. The trend is clear, and the Patriots are right on the forefront of it where you should want them to be. The NFL has changed, and luckily for us Belichick is as good as anyone at spotting and adapting to these changes. A lot of you seem to want to drag the NFL back into the past, but that ship has sailed, and likely for good. I don't like the direction that the league is headed in anymore than you seem to, but that doesn't change reality.

I think you're getting caught up in the stats too much, as they don't provide context. Sometimes it's appropriate to pass and makes sense to do, same with running, the big question is whether we can run when we need to. Right now we can't, the only recent example I can think of when we did that was in the final drive against the Jets when the O-line and Law Firm were in sync and got it done even though the Jets knew it was coming.

We have one of the best QBs and some excellent receiving talent, so passing is a strength of ours which we should make use of, and I dont think anyone is arguing against that, but I do agree with Grid and others that we need to be able to run as well.

Keep the other defense on the field, take pressure off of TFB, force the defense to make more decisions. Being one dimensional, even if we do it at a very high level, is a good thing.

The Giants have been able to tee off on TFB because we don't have a running threat they need to respect, with such a threat the 2 SBs against them become very different.

 

[bucky]

During the 2010-11 NFL Season, the New England Patriots lead the NFL in points scored.

2010 New England Patriots Statistics & Players - Pro-Football-Reference.com

The pass-run ratio for the New England Patriots offense during the 2010-11 NFL regular season was 53% (507/961) pass - 47% (454/961) run.

However, in the 2010-11 AFC Divisional Playoffs versus the New York Jets, the New England Patriots offense decided to go pass happy and lost the game.

New England Patriots offense versus New York Jets defense in the 2010-11 AFC Divisional Playoffs:

45 pass attempts/27 rush attempts = 62.5% pass/37.5% run

I suppose it never occurred to you that maybe - just maybe - the reason these numbers are so skewed is because the Pats were trying to come from behind at the end of the game. In fact, their last 13 plays were all passes because they were down by 2 scores with less than 5 minutes left in the game. So if you consider the first 56 minutes of the game, their ratio would have been 32 passes/27 runs.

New York Jets vs. New England Patriots - Play By Play - January 16, 2011 - ESPN

Therein lies the whole fault of the argument "when the offense is not balanced, the team loses". If you just bother to look under the covers, you'd see that the causality of these 2 facts is usually reversed - the offense is not balanced BECAUSE the team is losing, not vice versa

 

[BradyFTW!]

I think you're getting caught up in the stats too much, as they don't provide context. Sometimes it's appropriate to pass and makes sense to do, same with running, the big question is whether we can run when we need to. Right now we can't, the only recent example I can think of when we did that was in the final drive against the Jets when the O-line and Law Firm were in sync and got it done even though the Jets knew it was coming.

We have one of the best QBs and some excellent receiving talent, so passing is a strength of ours which we should make use of, and I dont think anyone is arguing against that, but I do agree with Grid and others that we need to be able to run as well.

Keep the other defense on the field, take pressure off of TFB, force the defense to make more decisions. Being one dimensional, even if we do it at a very high level, is a good thing.

The Giants have been able to tee off on TFB because we don't have a running threat they need to respect, with such a threat the 2 SBs against them become very different.

I agree that it's easy to get too caught up in the stats on this- I was simply replying to someone who said that the Patriots should be passing a *maximum* of 55% of the time. That strategy makes no sense for the Pats.

I think most of us agree that the Pats need to upgrade their running game, and the best way to do that is by having better talent at running back, so that you can get more production when you do run. I don't believe that the Pats need to run more often. I do believe that they need to make opposing defenses respect the run more. You can accomplish the later without the former.

 

[BradyFTW!]

I suppose it never occurred to you that maybe - just maybe - the reason these numbers are so skewed is because the Pats were trying to come from behind at the end of the game. In fact, their last 13 plays were all passes because they were down by 2 scores with less than 5 minutes left in the game. So if you consider the first 56 minutes of the game, their ratio would have been 32 passes/27 runs.

New York Jets vs. New England Patriots - Play By Play - January 16, 2011 - ESPN

Therein lies the whole fault of the argument "when the offense is not balanced, the team loses". If you just bother to look under the covers, you'd see that the causality of these 2 facts is usually reversed - the offense is not balanced BECAUSE the team is losing, not vice versa

Exactly. This is where so many people are getting tripped up by correlation vs. causation. Playing from behind has a causal relationship with both passing frequency and losing. Everyone on this forum knows that. There is a common cause between passing and losing, but neither one causes the other. The whole debate with ATippett started when I tried to make that point, though, so it'll probably continue to fall on deaf ears.

 

[Off The Grid]

I think you're getting caught up in the stats too much, as they don't provide context. Sometimes it's appropriate to pass and makes sense to do, same with running, the big question is whether we can run when we need to. Right now we can't, the only recent example I can think of when we did that was in the final drive against the Jets when the O-line and Law Firm were in sync and got it done even though the Jets knew it was coming.

We have one of the best QBs and some excellent receiving talent, so passing is a strength of ours which we should make use of, and I dont think anyone is arguing against that, but I do agree with Grid and others that we need to be able to run as well.

Keep the other defense on the field, take pressure off of TFB, force the defense to make more decisions.

Being one dimensional, even if we do it at a very high level, is (not) a good thing.

The Giants have been able to tee off on TFB because we don't have a running threat they need to respect, with such a threat the 2 SBs against them become very different.

Exactly.

Nobody's advocating a return to Bronco Nagurski, circa 1936.

It's quite simple:

A BALANCED team that Passes AND Runs effectively is FAR more likely to win the Crown.

Simple concept.

Some get it.

Some don't.

1 ~ In 1990, many thought that the Miners had changed the game to a ~ what's the term?? ~ Passing League.

The 1990 Giants corrected that mistaken impression.

2 ~ In 1999, many thought that the Rams had changed the Game to a ~ what's the term?? ~ Passing League.

The 2000 Ravens...corrected that mistaken impression.

3 ~ In 2001, many persisted in believing that the Rams had changed the Game to a ~ what's the term?? ~ Passing League.

The 2001 Patriots...corrected that mistaken impression.

4 ~ In 2004 ~ with King Polian's rule changes + Peyton's new records ~ many thought that the Colts had changed the Game to a ~ what's the term?? ~ Passing League.

The 2004 Patriots...corrected that mistaken impression.

5 + 6 ~ ENRAGINGLY, it was the 2007 and 2011 PATRIOTS who provided fresh Grist for this Mill.

We can only PRAY that Coach Bill, General Tom, and OC McDaniels have finally learned their lesson...and will get back to using the WHOLE Pig!!

RUN...THE DAMNED...BALL!!!

 

[BradyFTW!]

Exactly.

Nobody's advocating a return to Bronco Nagurski, circa 1936.

It's quite simple:

A BALANCED team that Passes AND Runs effectively is FAR more likely to win the Crown.

Simple concept.

Some get it.

Some don't.

1 ~ In 1990, many thought that the Miners had changed the game to a ~ what's the term?? ~ Passing League.

The 1990 Giants corrected that mistaken impression.

2 ~ In 1999, many thought that the Rams had changed the Game to a ~ what's the term?? ~ Passing League.

The 2000 Ravens...corrected that mistaken impression.

3 ~ In 2001, many persisted in believing that the Rams had changed the Game to a ~ what's the term?? ~ Passing League.

The 2001 Patriots...corrected that mistaken impression.

4 ~ In 2004 ~ with King Polian's rule changes + Peyton's new records ~ many thought that the Colts had changed the Game to a ~ what's the term?? ~ Passing League.

The 2004 Patriots...corrected that mistaken impression.

5 + 6 ~ ENRAGINGLY, it was the 2007 and 2011 PATRIOTS who provided fresh Grist for this Mill.

We can only PRAY that Coach Bill, General Tom, and OC McDaniels have finally learned their lesson...and will get back to using the WHOLE Pig!!

RUN...THE DAMNED...BALL!!!

The Polian "point of emphasis" happened after 2004, and the 2011 Patriots lost to a team that ran less effectively (and less frequently) than they did.

The Colts did win a SB one year after the point of emphasis took place (2006), so I'd say they validated the premise pretty well. The reason why they didn't win more wasn't because they didn't run well; it was because their defense sucked.

 

[ATippett56]

The Polian "point of emphasis" happened after 2004, and the 2011 Patriots lost to a team that ran less effectively (and less frequently) than they did.

The Colts did win a SB one year after the point of emphasis took place (2006), so I'd say they validated the premise pretty well. The reason why they didn't win more wasn't because they didn't run well; it was because their defense sucked.

No the point of emphasis occurred after the 2003 AFC Championship game with the New England Patriots beating the Indianapolis Colts 24 - 14 in Foxboro, MA.