The Julio Jones trade, a year later (was: BB & Dimitroff)

[patchick]

You know, it occurs to me that this whole discussion is kind of messed up because we're talking about an individual on one side of the equation -- Julio Jones, now a proven impact receiver -- and draft slots on the other. That makes one side a sure thing and easy to visualize, while the other is abstract.

Imagine if instead of "2 1sts, a 2nd & 2 4ths" we were saying...

"OK, so I take McCourty with a 1st, then do the typical Pats trade and turn the other 1st into a future 2nd + 1st. Then I take Spikes with the 2nd and Hernandez with the 4th. The next year I use my new 1st on Solder, and package the 2nd & 4th for a small move up for Gronkowski. So your choice is McCourty, Spikes, Hernandez, Solder & Gronkowski vs. Julio Jones."

Obviously that's pure fantasy, you're not going to hit on all 5 picks that way. But just as obviously, the #6 overall pick isn't guaranteed to be an impact player...and if that one player is injured or ineffective, you've lost everything. (For historical perspective, the previous #6 overall picks were Vernon Gholston, Andre Smith and Russell Okung.)

What's more, if you assume that your GM is adept enough to make the #6 pick nearly a sure thing, you have to assume he's also going to make gold out of a couple of the other picks.

It seems to me we should either be looking at what players Atlanta passed on to get Jones, or calling both sides "opportunities": the opportunity to pick #6 overall vs. the opportunity to pick #27, #59, #124, #23 & #120.

 

[borg]

Personally, I think the expensive acqusition of Jones was all about covering up the deficiencies of Matt Ryan. I see a QB with a weak arm....thus the offense needs a WR with enough athleticism and physicality to out leap/out muscle DBs when those weak jump balls come his way.....Similar to what is going on in Detroit with Stafford lobbing into triple coverage and letting Megatron do his thing.
Ryan isn't going anywhere for a long time, but he needs to be surrounded by talent....and talent makes him better, unlike our boy in New England who elevates everyone who catches his passes.
Atlanta's roster is flawed as I see it. Look around the league...the stout RB has a role in today's NFL, but not as a feature back. Too often these big boys get stuffed behind the LOS because they are too slow to the hole and lack agility. The Giants reduced Jacobs role, Blount fizzled in Tampa. Defenses are too fast and these guys are too slow. Rowdy White has become a power WR, but his speed has slowed and has more of a possession role. The flaw in his use is that Atlanta uses him for medium routes...but his lack of speed hurts the team. Same with Tony Gonzalez....great possession guy, but lack of speed.
In other words, Atlantas offense is SLOOOOOW.
I expect Dimitroff to transition this offense into a speedier group and Jones was his first piece of the puzzle. They need a quick Welker like safety valve, a Sproles like 3rd down back....especially on that indoor track, a young TE (like most every team). Unfortunately, that is alot of pieces to fill with limited future picks at his disposal.

 

[ay-yo]

With pure minimum salary guys -- street FAs -- plus Jones, you'd "only" be paying $3-4 million more a year than for your five original rookies.

But to be clear, you'd be talking about replacing four draft picks, including a 1st rounder and 2nd rounder, with a bunch of Tracy Whites. NOT Andre Carter, NOT Brian Waters, NOT Shaun Ellis, NOT Rob Ninkovich, NOT Chad Ochocinco. Guys like that commanded significantly above minimum, even in this short offseason that depressed FA salaries.

You'd also be talking about a revolving door of players on 1-year contracts, rather than developing guys in your system. (If a FA performs well enough to want him back year after year, you typically have to give him better than minimum by year 2.)

I was assuming at least a couple of moderate signings like the above named players, which IMO is much more realistic.

Fair enough. I guess the point I'm trying to make is that even if you trade up that high once every once in a while it shouldn't kill your cap. Carter, for example, was signed for 1.75 mil and Waters was signed for 2 mil. A smart gm should be able to find a way to get these guys on board for the extra 2-3 million it would take. As long as you have been having a normal amount of hits on draft picks previous years the cap shouldn't be a problem.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Re: BB advice to Dimitroff and today's loss

I though the Falcons gave up too much. It's one thing to give up 2 late firsts for a player of his caliber, but 4 draft picks was boneheaded.

Make no mistake, Julio Jones had some incredible performances this season which were overshadowed by injuries. I'd say for a first year player he did excellent. 54 catches 959 yards and 8 tds. That's a pretty special season for someone that only played 13 games and is a rookie. He's only gonna get better.

Jones is a very talented young player but not worth 4 draft picks. Nobody is really worth 4 draft picks especially when you can't tell for sure how they will turn out.

Should work on staying healthy in the off season now that he knows what the grind of the nfl is like. I'd of given our 2 first last year to move up and get him.

Green is better and I wouldn't give up two 1sts for him. By paying forward a 1st rounder you get an extra 2nd each year and a 1st that you could use to draft the next Wilfork. Oh wait we already did! Never underestimate the value of 1st round picks. Especially multiple 1sts.

 

[captain stone]

Re: BB advice to Dimitroff and today's loss

well put.

PS how could that roster have been set last year?? crazy


-- FRITZ

Part of their problem on the OL was that Mike Johnson, the replacement for depahted OG Harvey Dahl, was IRed in October. Their backups suck, and their starting Center Hawley wasn't much better this year, either.

That still doesn't excuse, however, the dreadful performances of Smith, Mularkey & Ryan; because knowing that 2/3 of the interior OL wasn't up to the task, they should never have attempted 2 vanilla QB sneaks, incl. one WITH AN EMPTY BACKFIELD.

 

[ay-yo]

You know, it occurs to me that this whole discussion is kind of messed up because we're talking about an individual on one side of the equation -- Julio Jones, now a proven impact receiver -- and draft slots on the other. That makes one side a sure thing and easy to visualize, while the other is abstract.

Imagine if instead of "2 1sts, a 2nd & 2 4ths" we were saying...

"OK, so I take McCourty with a 1st, then do the typical Pats trade and turn the other 1st into a future 2nd + 1st. Then I take Spikes with the 2nd and Hernandez with the 4th. The next year I use my new 1st on Solder, and package the 2nd & 4th for a small move up for Gronkowski. So your choice is McCourty, Spikes, Hernandez, Solder & Gronkowski vs. Julio Jones."

Obviously that's pure fantasy, you're not going to hit on all 5 picks that way. But just as obviously, the #6 overall pick isn't guaranteed to be an impact player...and if that one player is injured or ineffective, you've lost everything. (For historical perspective, the previous #6 overall picks were Vernon Gholston, Andre Smith and Russell Okung.)

What's more, if you assume that your GM is adept enough to make the #6 pick nearly a sure thing, you have to assume he's also going to make gold out of a couple of the other picks.

It seems to me we should either be looking at what players Atlanta passed on to get Jones, or calling both sides "opportunities": the opportunity to pick #6 overall vs. the opportunity to pick #27, #59, #124, #23 & #120.

When considering it from this point of view of opportunities:

It's clear that you must feel extremely confident that you will be getting not just an impact player, but one who will be one of the best in the league. Even the Pats, who prefer to have more middle class players instead of a few extra high end players, have Brady, Welker, Mankins, Vince and soon Mayo (and eventually Gronk) making big money.

I believe Julio will be the type of player who is deserving of that type of money and can be one of the 5 best players on a championship team. Those guys are worth all the opportunities you give up b/c the chance you get a player that good (i.e. Gronk in the 2nd) is incredibly slim. To acquire such players in FA will be even more costly in terms of what you sacrifice.

 

[patchick]

When considering it from this point of view of opportunities:

It's clear that you must feel extremely confident that you will be getting not just an impact player, but one who will be one of the best in the league. Even the Pats, who prefer to have more middle class players instead of a few extra high end players, have Brady, Welker, Mankins, Vince and soon Mayo (and eventually Gronk) making big money.

I believe Julio will be the type of player who is deserving of that type of money and can be one of the 5 best players on a championship team. Those guys are worth all the opportunities you give up b/c the chance you get a player that good (i.e. Gronk in the 2nd) is incredibly slim. To acquire such players in FA will be even more costly in terms of what you sacrifice.

That makes plenty of sense, and you put it very well. Still, my gut says that the same GM will have a better chance of coming away with an elite talent by using two picks in the 20s, one in the 50s and two in the 120s than one #6. (Plus I like the "consolation prize" of coming away with at least a couple of cheap players in the Watson-Spikes-Hernandez range.)

It's an interesting question, what the "elite" hit rate is at various points in the draft. The Patriots have only ever picked as high as #6 once, a decade ago, so that's not much use data-wise.

In the BB era, the Patriots have made 8 picks in the range of #19-32:
Nate Solder
Devin McCourty
Brandon Meriweather
Laurence Maroney
Logan Mankins
Vince Wilfork
Benjamin Watson
Daniel Graham

I count 2 players you've identified in the elite range (Wilfork & Mankins), two the jury's out on (McCourty and Solder), two solid contributors (Graham and Watson), one disappointment (Maroney) and one virtually unclassifiable: multi-year starter, multiple Pro Bowl appearances, and cut before his rookie contract's up (Meriweather). So what's the expected return on two picks pin that range?

 

[borg]

Personally, I think the expensive acqusition of Jones was all about covering up the deficiencies of Matt Ryan. I see a QB with a weak arm....thus the offense needs a WR with enough athleticism and physicality to out leap/out muscle DBs when those weak jump balls come his way.....Similar to what is going on in Detroit with Stafford lobbing into triple coverage and letting Megatron do his thing.
Ryan isn't going anywhere for a long time, but he needs to be surrounded by talent....and talent makes him better, unlike our boy in New England who elevates everyone who catches his passes.
Atlanta's roster is flawed as I see it. Look around the league...the stout RB has a role in today's NFL, but not as a feature back. Too often these big boys get stuffed behind the LOS because they are too slow to the hole and lack agility. The Giants reduced Jacobs role, Blount fizzled in Tampa. Defenses are too fast and these guys are too slow. Rowdy White has become a power WR, but his speed has slowed and has more of a possession role. The flaw in his use is that Atlanta uses him for medium routes...but his lack of speed hurts the team. Same with Tony Gonzalez....great possession guy, but lack of speed.
In other words, Atlantas offense is SLOOOOOW.
I expect Dimitroff to transition this offense into a speedier group and Jones was his first piece of the puzzle. They need a quick Welker like safety valve, a Sproles like 3rd down back....especially on that indoor track, a young TE (like most every team). Unfortunately, that is alot of pieces to fill with limited future picks at his disposal.

Rotoworld posts a blurb thought reinforces my belief that the Atlanta offense lacks speed.....
"Coach Mike Smith confirmed the Falcons' running game is a "big concern" entering the offseason.
Smith told us what he thought of Michael Turner at New York by turning to Matt Ryan for a pair of fourth-and-short plays and punting on another. The Falcons were among the league's worst in first-down runs and negative plays on the ground, primarily because Turner can no longer create on his own. Atlanta will have to upgrade at tail back and offensive line in 2012. "

 

[ay-yo]

That makes plenty of sense, and you put it very well. Still, my gut says that the same GM will have a better chance of coming away with an elite talent by using two picks in the 20s, one in the 50s and two in the 120s than one #6. (Plus I like the "consolation prize" of coming away with at least a couple of cheap players in the Watson-Spikes-Hernandez range.)

It's an interesting question, what the "elite" hit rate is at various points in the draft. The Patriots have only ever picked as high as #6 once, a decade ago, so that's not much use data-wise.

In the BB era, the Patriots have made 8 picks in the range of #19-32:
Nate Solder
Devin McCourty
Brandon Meriweather
Laurence Maroney
Logan Mankins
Vince Wilfork
Benjamin Watson
Daniel Graham

I count 2 players you've identified in the elite range (Wilfork & Mankins), two the jury's out on (McCourty and Solder), two solid contributors (Graham and Watson), one disappointment (Maroney) and one virtually unclassifiable: multi-year starter, multiple Pro Bowl appearances, and cut before his rookie contract's up (Meriweather). So what's the expected return on two picks pin that range?

I guess the deciding factors would be:

1a. The structure of the draft
Obviously you're guy needs to be there. But the depth of the draft also matters. If you believe picks 20-50 to be above average compared to other years then you are more inclined not to pull the trigger and vice versa.

1b. The structure of your football team
If you are close to a title and can win it all by plugging a few holes, don't do it. But if you don't believe that you have enough talent and there's a Larry Fitzgerald level talent, you pull the trigger. I think Jones can be that good.

3. Cap Space Available

As far as the Falcons are concerned:

1. I'm not gonna pretend to be that good at evaluating a draft class. However it does look like their guy is the right guy.

2. I would say when they made the trade they didn't have a realistic shot at a title. Therefore can't knock them for missing out on some consolation prizes.

3. idk

So the 2 most important factors get a check. The 3rd an incomplete.

 

[ay-yo]

As a side note I do fault the falcons for giving up the future 1. The trade is much better if they give up a 1 / 2 / 2 in the same year.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Rotoworld posts a blurb thought reinforces my belief that the Atlanta offense lacks speed.....
"Coach Mike Smith confirmed the Falcons' running game is a "big concern" entering the offseason.
Smith told us what he thought of Michael Turner at New York by turning to Matt Ryan for a pair of fourth-and-short plays and punting on another. The Falcons were among the league's worst in first-down runs and negative plays on the ground, primarily because Turner can no longer create on his own. Atlanta will have to upgrade at tail back and offensive line in 2012. "

Wow strong statment indeed.

I still think the Falcons need to build up both lines before they are truly a playoff threat.

 

[conway]

"FOUR – Quarterbacks make wide receivers; wide receivers do not make quarterbacks. You can have a receiving corps of Rice, Don Hutson, Randy Moss, Homer Jones and the Catawba Claw ... they won't make many game-changing plays if the quarterback can't get them the ball."

Randall Cunningham and Daunte Culpepper disagree. I don't think Cunningham hit Moss in stride that whole damn year and he still had an incredible season.

Brian Billick says a great receiver can even make a lousy coach look good.

But I'd say you're generally right and that Moss may be the rare exception.

 

[rdf63]

This trade could be a benefit to the Pats in the 2012 draft. Right now, the Falcons have a 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th and 7th round pick. The second 1st round pick of the Pats could be very attractive to the Falcons because they little to no options. The Pats may try to get the Falcons 2013 1st and 2012 3rd and the Falcons may have to take it.

 

[jeffbiologist]

I think a couple other factors have to be taken into account. First, White is a elite reciever and and if he is getting all the balls he will get double coverage AND be a diva to negotiate with when it comes to his contract. So, $$ is a factor. Also consider Dimitroff came from NE where we failed time after time with 2nd tier WRs. If the 2nd rounders were the likes of Chad Jackson and Bethel Johnson WHY NOT bundle a few of those picks and get what most think as a sure thing? Add to that he is a local kid that will sell tickets, its still hard to judge only 1 year in. Show me the picks Cleveland gets and what they DO with them 3 years down the line before I judge this trade.

 

[captain stone]

Fair points, although we also need to consider what Atlanta could've done with those picks.