It gets earlier every year...
If Welker is franchised or signed WR improves significantly
Branch and Ocho are the primary "outside the numbers" possession guys and both are old. I think it would be wise to try to find a young Branch clone to apprentice to both him and Ocho before they go away for good. Price, it seems, was
supposed to be that guy, but alas.
Here I go again, running against the common wisdom. The Pats' #4 Center this season, Nick McDonald, while he didn't play great, still seemed to perform as well as or better than the #2 Center for most teams. And I don't think that Scar is quite done with him (or Wendell or Connolly) just yet. Besides, Koppen (who is better for the run game than most folks seem to think) could easily re-sign. Picking up another prospect in the draft? Sure! Thinking that the Pats have a "big hole" at the position that can only be fixed by spending a high draft pick might be overstating the case a bit. At least as long as Scar is around.
Not much depth or quality in the secondary
CB - This is pretty murky for me. I still think DMC can be very good and his performance this year has suffered, in part, because of the lack of quality safety help on the field. Improvement in safety quality may produce a satisfying turnaround for him in 2012. Dowling is mostly unknown having gone on IR so early, but seems very promising (and, IMHO, his "injury history" is overstated). Arrington may have some limitations, but is a very solid #2/3.
Safety - Probably more murky for me than for most folks. Chung seems to me a solid in-the-box guy with good range and some coverage ability, but he's been injured a lot. Josh Barrett (speaking of "injury history") is big, athletic but still (IMO) mostly an unknown. Ihedigbo isn't great at anything but special teams, but seems a servicable reserve/nickel guy (much moreso than Slater). Brown is the intriguing one to me. He's the only guy I've seen this season who's actually gotten into position to help out McCourty when he's needed it. I also found this stat comparison interesting:
Meriweather 2007, age 23, 1st-round rookie:
16 games/0 starts, 18 tckls/9 asst, 3 PD, 1 FF
Brown 2011, age 23, UDFA 2nd year (almost exclusively special teams as a rookie)
14 games, 3 starts, 18 tckls/9 asst, 1 INT, 1 PD
I'm not claiming by any means that Brown WILL develop, just that it might be a season too early to discard him out of hand.
That said, a smart coverage safety would still be a wise investment and such a pick would probably need to happen by the mid-2nd in this safety class.
Wilfork & Mayo and a bunch of JAGs in the front seven
DL "heavies":
Warren is old. Ellis is old. Wright is almost certainly gone for health reasons and Pryor may be also. Brace, though he's played mostly 3-4 DE, seems more like a barely adequate reserve 4-3 DT at this point.
Wilfork is a great NT. Love is a fine UT. Deaderick seems to be developing into at least a decent reserve 3-4 DE. Regardless of the intended proportion of 4-3 to 3-4 is for 2012, the Pats are short on DL "heavies" with youth and upside.
LB:
Guyton has hit his ceiling and played out his contract. Anderson is still almost a pure 3-point sub-rusher (but relatively young). Andre Carter is a solid rusher who's shown some surprising defensive ability, too - but HE's old. Counting White, Koutouvides and Tarpinian as primarily special-teamers/emergency fill-ins, that leave the Pats with:
Mayo is a fine, "fly around making tackles" guy who seems best (IMO) as partner to a thumper like Spikes in the middle and who needs to improve his coverage skills. Ninko has developed into a very reliable "defender" whose "add-on" pass-rush is improving (6.5 sacks). Fletcher seems to have the athleticism and the want-to to play inside or outside, but needs more discipline and certainly seems capable of being at least a solid reserve/situational guy. Seems to me that the LB corps is really only one guy short, though all of them could cover better.
