Playoff Tiebreaker: Strength of Victory

[PatsFans.com Article]

Playoff Tiebreaker: Strength of Victory
By: John Morgan

A closer look at the Strength of Victory tiebreaker in relation to the AFC playoff race; there seems to be some confusion regarding this tiebreaker, and what team gets what seed if the top contenders win their remaining games....

CLICK HERE TO READ THIS STORY​

 

[Patsrock]

I pointed out in the article that his numbers for Houston are way way off. He says Houston combined remaining opponents 27-12. Not even close. They play the Panthers 4-9, Colts 0-13 and the Titans 7-6. Combined record of 11-28.

Not trying to be a jerk but some editing my help. He has the Pats opponents combined record listed being 22-17 but below that he has the records written out and it is 17-22.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Playoff Tiebreaker: Strength of Victory
By: John Morgan

A closer look at the Strength of Victory tiebreaker in relation to the AFC playoff race; there seems to be some confusion regarding this tiebreaker, and what team gets what seed if the top contenders win their remaining games....

CLICK HERE TO READ THIS STORY​

Correct me if im wrong but isn't strength of victory have to do with a team's points for and points against differential?

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

Correct me if im wrong but isn't strength of victory have to do with a team's points for and points against differential?

Consider yourself corrected. You are wrong.

SoV is the W-L-T record of the teams you have beaten.
SoS is the W-L-T record of all the teams you have played.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed, is the next tiebreaker after those two.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Correct me if im wrong but isn't strength of victory have to do with a team's points for and points against differential?

Nope. SoV is simply the combined record of all the teams you beat (and if you beat a team twice, their record counts twice).

Similarly, strength-of-schedule is the combined record of all the teams you played (and if you play a team twice, their record counts twice).

 

[BlueThunder]

Looking at who they have beaten.....the team to beat looks to be the Ravens....

Lets hope Pittsburgh gets to beat Flacco & Rice up before the Pats have to play them.....

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

The SoV tiebreaker of Pats vs. the Steelers is pointless and meaningless. We would lose on head-to-head before it got that point.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

The SoV tiebreaker of Pats vs. the Steelers is pointless and meaningless. We would lose on head-to-head before it got that point.

What if it is a three way tiebreaker between NE, Pitt and Houston? Assuming that Pitts edges out Balt on a tiebreaker for the division and the Pats, Texans and Steelers all have the same record. In head to head play,Pitt beat NE during the season but Texans beat Pitt and Pats didn't play Texans so head to head doesn't come into play. The next tiebreaker is common games, if there is a minimum of four ( which there isn't). Assuming the conference record is the same ( now Texans and Pats have 2 conference losses while Pitt has three)...then wouldn't it go to SOV????

 

[MP-Logick]

What if it is a three way tiebreaker between NE, Pitt and Houston? Assuming that Pitts edges out Balt on a tiebreaker for the division and the Pats, Texans and Steelers all have the same record. In head to head play,Pitt beat NE during the season but Texans beat Pitt and Pats didn't play Texans so head to head doesn't come into play. The next tiebreaker is common games, if there is a minimum of four ( which there isn't). Assuming the conference record is the same ( now Texans and Pats have 2 conference losses while Pitt has three)...then wouldn't it go to SOV????

According to ESPN's playoff machine, if there's a three-way tie in that scenario, NE would be 1, HOU 2, and PIT 3.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

According to ESPN's playoff machine, if there's a three-way tie in that scenario, NE would be 1, HOU 2, and PIT 3.

Maybe right now but the SOV is a fluid number that changes based on games that might not seem to matter.
For instance Saturday night's game is Dal vs TB. The Pats beat Dallas so a Cowboys victory adds one more to the Pats SOV column. TB got beaten by Houston so a TB victory adds one to the Texans SOV column.

 

[Ring 6]

Looking at who they have beaten.....the team to beat looks to be the Ravens....

I think most above average teams would be about 10-3 with the Ravens schedule. They have lost to 3 bad teams, and have played good teams in Pitt twice and Houston, and decent teams in the Jets and SF (SF would be 7-6 in the AFC)
They have played 8 games against teams a good team should have no business losing to. 2-3 beyond that isnt real impressive to me. Losing to Jacksonville and Seattle is not the mark of a great team.

Lets hope Pittsburgh gets to beat Flacco & Rice up before the Pats have to play them.....

I dont understand the respect Baltimore gets. They won a SB 12 years ago with one of the best defenses ever, and since then everyone acts as if they still have that defense and are waiting to unleash it.
They have won 5 playoff games in 11 years since they won the SB.

 

[BTTA]

The SoV tiebreaker of Pats vs. the Steelers is pointless and meaningless. We would lose on head-to-head before it got that point.

This is the kind of misinformation that's been floating around for weeks that this article was supposed to clean up.

 

[Gumby]

Originally Posted by TheGodInAGreyHoodie
The SoV tiebreaker of Pats vs. the Steelers is pointless and meaningless. We would lose on head-to-head before it got that point.

This is the kind of misinformation that's been floating around for weeks that this article was supposed to clean up.

The first post was not MISinformation, but rather INCOMPLETE information. H-H would matter in a 2-way tie exactly as first poster said.
Only SOV can differentiate in a 3-way tie as 2nd poster implies and as article explains.

 

[Ron Sellers]

According to ESPN's playoff machine, if there's a three-way tie in that scenario, NE would be 1, HOU 2, and PIT 3.

Maybe right now but the SOV is a fluid number that changes based on games that might not seem to matter.
For instance Saturday night's game is Dal vs TB. The Pats beat Dallas so a Cowboys victory adds one more to the Pats SOV column. TB got beaten by Houston so a TB victory adds one to the Texans SOV column.

Yes, the espn playoff machine does seem to be creating a lot of misinformation among NFL fans. As the article states there is no way of knowing at this point in time who will end up with a better SOV, and their 'if the season ended now' ranks are both meaningless and misleading. Their tool may be able to determine who wins a tiebreaker with one of the first rules (head-to-head, conference record), but if it comes down to SOV it's still way too early to tell one way or the other.

 

[supafly]

I think most above average teams would be about 10-3 with the Ravens schedule.

#1. You keep saying that, but thru 14 weeks, Baltimore has played in more games against teams with winning records than the Patriots have...I'm not sure what your deal is with Baltimore's schedule, but I pointed out a breakdown before and you ignored it.

#2. Not only have they played in more games against teams with winning records, but the records of the teams they've played is way better than N.England's records too. It's not even close.

#3. And if those 2 facts weren't enough for you, Baltimore has gotten wins against these teams, going (6-1) in that timespan, while N.England has lost to 2 of the 6 teams with winning records, in Pittsburgh and the NY Giants; going (4-2).

Those are 3 strong reasons to support the fact that Baltimore has had a more difficult season that N.England has, and here's a 4th:

#4. Baltimore has beaten the team that N.England lost to, and they've done it twice. They also whipped up on the Houston Texans too, giving them THREE wins against teams with 10-3 records. The closest argument you could say for N.England's schedule is that they beat an 8 win team (NY Jets) twice...

Baltimore: 55 wins

1.Pittsburgh

2.Tennessee

3.NY Jets

4.Houston

5.Pittsburgh (2nd game)

6.Cincinnati

7.SF


New England: 47 wins

1.Oakland

2.NY Jets

3.Dallas

4.Pittsburgh

5.NY Giants

6.NY Jets (2nd game)

 

[BTTA]

[/I]
The first post was not MISinformation, but rather INCOMPLETE information. H-H would matter in a 2-way tie exactly as first poster said.
Only SOV can differentiate in a 3-way tie as 2nd poster implies and as article explains.

The context for the conversations is a three way tie between Houston, Baltimore, and the Pats. Everybody already understands the head to head tie breakers, that's not complex.

 

[Wilfork#75]

What if it is a three way tiebreaker between NE, Pitt and Houston? Assuming that Pitts edges out Balt on a tiebreaker for the division and the Pats, Texans and Steelers all have the same record. In head to head play,Pitt beat NE during the season but Texans beat Pitt and Pats didn't play Texans so head to head doesn't come into play. The next tiebreaker is common games, if there is a minimum of four ( which there isn't). Assuming the conference record is the same ( now Texans and Pats have 2 conference losses while Pitt has three)...then wouldn't it go to SOV????

Isn't their an easier way, like the BCS

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

#4. Baltimore has beaten the team that N.England lost to, and they've done it twice. They also whipped up on the Houston Texans too, giving them THREE wins against teams with 10-3 records.

Actually Four, if you count the victory over SF (also 10-3).

 

[Ring 6]

#1. You keep saying that, but thru 14 weeks, Baltimore has played in more games against teams with winning records than the Patriots have...I'm not sure what your deal is with Baltimore's schedule, but I pointed out a breakdown before and you ignored it.

I didn't ignore anything. Just because you post something somewhere, it doesn't mean I read it, and pretend to not.

#2. Not only have they played in more games against teams with winning records, but the records of the teams they've played is way better than N.England's records too. It's not even close.

I didn't bring NEs schedule into the discussion at all.

#3. And if those 2 facts weren't enough for you, Baltimore has gotten wins against these teams, going (6-1) in that timespan, while N.England has lost to 2 of the 6 teams with winning records, in Pittsburgh and the NY Giants; going (4-2).

Baltimore has also lost to Tenn (who I consider a bad team, but you have as a good team) Seattle and Jacksonville. You cant dismiss that.

Those are 3 strong reasons to support the fact that Baltimore has had a more difficult season that N.England has, and here's a 4th:

#4. Baltimore has beaten the team that N.England lost to, and they've done it twice.

My comments included 'aside from Pittsburgh'

They also whipped up on the Houston Texans too, giving them THREE wins against teams with 10-3 records. The closest argument you could say for N.England's schedule is that they beat an 8 win team (NY Jets) twice...

You do realize that if the Jets had beaten us twice they would be 10-3 right?
Look, you can have your opinion and I can have mine, right? I think that the losses the Ravens have mean a lot. I grant them the wins over Pittsburgh, but when you lose to Seattle and Jacksonville, that wipes a little luster away.

Baltimore: 55 wins

1.Pittsburgh

2.Tennessee

3.NY Jets

4.Houston

5.Pittsburgh (2nd game)

6.Cincinnati

7.SF


New England: 47 wins

1.Oakland

2.NY Jets

3.Dallas

4.Pittsburgh

5.NY Giants

6.NY Jets (2nd game)

[/quote]

I don't have any idea what this means. Why are you counting up the wins of 7 Bmore opponents, and comparing them to the wins of 6 Patriot opponents?
Why are you disimissing their losses?

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

I don't have any idea what this means. Why are you counting up the wins of 7 Bmore opponents, and comparing them to the wins of 6 Patriot opponents?
Why are you disimissing their losses?

Shouldn't it include all the victories for a total SOV?
It's fluid so it is not fixed in stone...

Texans ---- tenn, 7-6------indy- 0-13------ Carolina 4-9left (11-28)
They beat 52-78
Indy 0-13
mia 4-9
pit 10-3
ten 7-6
jax 4-9
clev4-9
tb 4-9
jax 4-9
atl 8-5
cinn 7-6 if they win out 63-106 subject to change

Balt ---cinn 7-6---------cleve 4-9 –SD 6-7 left 17-22)
Pitt 10-3
Stl 2-11
Jets 8-5
Hou 10-3
ariz 6-7
pitt 10-3
cinn 7-6
sf 10-3
cleve 4-9
indy 0-13 (67-61) total 83-82








Pats Den 7-6 ----Mia 4-9--------Buff 5-8 left (16-23)
They beat
Wash 4-9
Philly 5-8
Dallas 7-5 ***
NyJ 8-6
NYJ 8-5
Mia 4-9
Indy 0-13
KC 5-8
Oak (7-6)
SD 6-7 54-76 total 70-98

Translation, Balt would win SOV in a three way tie as of now but Pats lead Hou by a good measure, not insurmountable