Points per possession and why bend don't break is broken

[BradyManny]

Great post, very detailed and a refreshing change from the reactionary stuff that's been around here lately.

It's further proof that even as Goodell and Polian have functionally killed the soul of football defense still beats offense. One of the main reasons I first loved Belichick was his defensive excellence and ability to make chicken salad from chicken byproduct. I also think that defensive football is where the soul and spirit of the game resides. It really saddens me to see such a passive, soft, two high safety defense time and time again. It's not leveraging the strength of the personnel, it's not complimentary football, and it's sad to witness.

I agree with this whole post - defense still does beat offense. We saw it so clearly in SB42, which is why I'm surprised the Patriots haven't evolved defensively since then.

I guess it's complicated - yes, its an offensive league, but at the end of the day, the best defense will stimy the best offense.

As for complimentary football, I've been saying since 2007 the Patriots need a defense that knows how to get off the field and get Brady the ball back.

It's also why I can't let the offense off the hook for Sunday b/c it didn't do its best to play complimentary. But again, I think if you look at it per possession, everything is put into a more accurate light, and the offense really isn't the root of the problem - it was part of the problem on Sunday, but not the source.

The offensive problem is - and I just said this in another thread - teams that can get pressure without taking men away from coverage are going to cause issues for ANY and ALL offenses. We aren't going to win big games until something changes - either our OL somehow becomes much tougher, or our defense can win games when the offense faces an elite, stifling defense.

 

[NHPATSFAN11]

It is obviously the case that this defense lacks talent. However, there is one thing I do not understand. When the opposing team gets into the redzone, our defense tends to magically get better and our coverage gets 100x tighter. Why can't this defense manage to play more aggressive outside the 20ydl. Seems this conservative style is killing our team both psychologically and on the scoreboard.

 

[hlywoodjp]

It is obviously the case that this defense lacks talent. However, there is one thing I do not understand. When the opposing team gets into the redzone, our defense tends to magically get better and our coverage gets 100x tighter. Why can't this defense manage to play more aggressive outside the 20ydl. Seems this conservative style is killing our team both psychologically and on the scoreboard.

Well it's a lot easier to play zone when you have compressed space. They seem content to gradually let the space get smaller and smaller until it gets to a point (the red zone) where they feel they can get a stop.

 

[jal]

The defense is what it is. Decent in the red zone, gotten better at preventing big yardage plays, but people will drive on them all day. Maybe a few things can be tightened up so the wide open guys (i.e., coverage busts) don't happen but that's about it. You CAN win (see Cards 2008, Saints 2009), but there is a lot of burden on the offense. Which leads me to...

What people should be concerned with is the continually dropping production of the offense. Yards / play has dropped in every single game since the opener, with the first three weeks being excellent (> 7 yards per play) and the offense being just pretty good to middling since then. Yards / play (by week): 8.8, 7.5, 7.0, 6.7, 6.2, 5.4, 4.3.

A lot of the deep seam routes that the tight ends were running the first three weeks haven't been there of late, whether that's by design or simply because the defense is taking it away, I don't know. But they need to get some more big plays on offense because without them defenses are going to squat on the short and middle-breaking routes all day. This means we have to get the long pass to the TE down the seam back, more Taylor Price and less Branch / Ochocinco, and MAYBE think long and hard about a certain R. Moss who is available.