Jumbo Sized Elephants

[manxman2601]

There's a group of players on the Patriots pre-draft contact list that intrigue me:

Christian Ballard
Adrian Clayborn
Da'Quan Bowers
Allen Bailey
Pernell McPhee

Two things strike me about them.

1. They are the wrong size for our base defense, too small for base DE, too big for OLB.

2. With the exception of McPhee and maybe Bowers, they are all projected to be picked in the low first, high second round area.

So why are the Pats looking at theses types of players so intently? Is it just due diligence in getting a look at the whole board in a key area of Patriots picks (28 and 33) or are they looking at them for sub package reasons? I know that accounted for 50%+ of defensive plays, but doesn't really jibe with what we think of as BB's draft philosophy, ie that top round picks need to be 3/4 down players.

FWIW, Mcphee was one of my earliest binkys and Allen Bailey is quickly becoming one of the players I most want the Patriots to draft. So I'm hoping that you'll all find the Patriots interest in these oversized elephants a worthwhile area of discussion.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

There's a group of players on the Patriots pre-draft contact list that intrigue me:

Christian Ballard
Adrian Clayborn
Da'Quan Bowers
Allen Bailey
Pernell McPhee

Two things strike me about them.

1. They are the wrong size for our base defense, too small for base DE, too big for OLB.

2. With the exception of McPhee and maybe Bowers, they are all projected to be picked in the low first, high second round area.

So why are the Pats looking at theses types of players so intently? Is it just due diligence in getting a look at the whole board in a key area of Patriots picks (28 and 33) or are they looking at them for sub package reasons? I know that accounted for 50%+ of defensive plays, but doesn't really jibe with what we think of as BB's draft philosophy, ie that top round picks need to be 3/4 down players.

FWIW, Mcphee was one of my earliest binkys and Allen Bailey is quickly becoming one of the players I most want the Patriots to draft. So I'm hoping that you'll all find the Patriots interest in these oversized elephants a worthwhile area of discussion.

1. a: Ballard does not appear to be a player capable of 3-4 DE, but when played on the edge he has more time to find the ball, and from there his natural athleticism takes over and he makes plays. In trash he sucks.

b: Clayborn turned in better change of direction numbers then Mayo. We already know he can rush the passer.

c: Bowers looks like a kid who can play 3-4 DE, and he's already demonstrated on my TV he can play OLB okay.

d: I had no idea where Bailey would fit, but there's a strong sense of Cunningham Deja Vu developing since I never saw Cunningham coming even after BB scouted him personally.

f: McPhee is looking more like a kid whom you'd bulk up and play at DE.

2. a: I rate Ballard a late second, and for NE, fourth round or later.

b: Clayborn will most likely go to a 4-3 team in the first round.

c: I'd love to see Bowers at #17 to get some idea what NE thinks of him.

d: Bailey was looking early third, but perhaps BB wants him earlier.

e: McPhee could easily slide into day three.

NE is looking for big men who can rush the passer, stop the run, and play some underneath zone coverage. They want good character and terrific work ethic. I'd say all the above have most of that. FWIW, I believe Ballard and McPhee are lower on NE's board, Bailey has risen, and Clayborn will probably go too high for them. Bowers was more due diligence in case he does slide. If I had to hazard a guess, Bailey is the primary target from the mid-second on.

 

[manxman2601]

1. a: Ballard does not appear to be a player capable of 3-4 DE, but when played on the edge he has more time to find the ball, and from there his natural athleticism takes over and he makes plays. In trash he sucks.

b: Clayborn turned in better change of direction numbers then Mayo. We already know he can rush the passer.

c: Bowers looks like a kid who can play 3-4 DE, and he's already demonstrated on my TV he can play OLB okay.

d: I had no idea where Bailey would fit, but there's a strong sense of Cunningham Deja Vu developing since I never saw Cunningham coming even after BB scouted him personally.

f: McPhee is looking more like a kid whom you'd bulk up and play at DE.

2. a: I rate Ballard a late second, and for NE, fourth round or later.

b: Clayborn will most likely go to a 4-3 team in the first round.

c: I'd love to see Bowers at #17 to get some idea what NE thinks of him.

d: Bailey was looking early third, but perhaps BB wants him earlier.

e: McPhee could easily slide into day three.

NE is looking for big men who can rush the passer, stop the run, and play some underneath zone coverage. They want good character and terrific work ethic. I'd say all the above have most of that. FWIW, I believe Ballard and McPhee are lower on NE's board, Bailey has risen, and Clayborn will probably go too high for them. Bowers was more due diligence in case he does slide. If I had to hazard a guess, Bailey is the primary target from the mid-second on.

Thank you again for an informative reply. I largely agree with your slotting, although Clayborn could be had lower depending on whether teams like TB and Atlanta rate Justin Houston higher.

What you didn't really address is whether BB is looking seriously at these types of Players for the Pats which strikes me as a change of emphasis. Cunningham isn't a great comp. because he fits the more traditional OLB weight wise in the 260lb range, but all these guys are in the 280lb range. Do you see them as only sub DE's or as base OLB's also?

As an aside, I found a useful youtube channel, caneinsider, which shows all the respective offensive and defensive highlights for Miami games last year. I think these are relevant to ourselves because Bailey, Hankerson and Brandon Harris are all 3 that I could see interesting the Pats in the second round.

If you get a chance, watch the defensive highlights package for Miami against UNC. Bailey looked dominant.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I do think that Bailey's measurables and athleticism make him attractive to New England in the 2nd-3rd round area. He would either play elephant or edge rush DE in subpackages. He's a bit undersized to play 3-4 DE though. Mcphee would be like a poor man's Bailey. He's a good edge setter and run stuffer but I don't think he has the pass rush ability that Bailey does. I targetted Bailey as one of three player's I'd like to see the Pats draft to build the 'Unfair Defense'.

 

[A_Ghost_In_The_Machine]

I think (though I may be wrong) that the large amount of snaps on defense that were in sub-packages last year may have been to do with a lack of the right personnel rather than BB changing his system. That said I wouldn't want to see us take a player in the 1st or 2nd (where most of these guys are predicted to go) who is just going to play in sub-packages

 

[manxman2601]

I do think that Bailey's measurables and athleticism make him attractive to New England in the 2nd-3rd round area. He would either play elephant or edge rush DE in subpackages. He's a bit undersized to play 3-4 DE though. Mcphee would be like a poor man's Bailey. He's a good edge setter and run stuffer but I don't think he has the pass rush ability that Bailey does. I targetted Bailey as one of three player's I'd like to see the Pats draft to build the 'Unfair Defense'.

Just read that post. Largely agree although I'm in the Cam Jordan rather than JJ Watt camp although in the context of an Elephant backer, Watt's agility advantage makes him the better choice.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Thank you again for an informative reply. I largely agree with your slotting, although Clayborn could be had lower depending on whether teams like TB and Atlanta rate Justin Houston higher.

What you didn't really address is whether BB is looking seriously at these types of Players for the Pats which strikes me as a change of emphasis. Cunningham isn't a great comp. because he fits the more traditional OLB weight wise in the 260lb range, but all these guys are in the 280lb range. Do you see them as only sub DE's or as base OLB's also?

As an aside, I found a useful youtube channel, caneinsider, which shows all the respective offensive and defensive highlights for Miami games last year. I think these are relevant to ourselves because Bailey, Hankerson and Brandon Harris are all 3 that I could see interesting the Pats in the second round.

If you get a chance, watch the defensive highlights package for Miami against UNC. Bailey looked dominant.

Weight can be gained or lost depending on the S&C coach's goals. Bailey and Clayborn both have baby fat they can trim.

Bailey played LB in high school and was reportedly very highly recruited for LB. Cunningham also played linebacker in high school before converting to DE.

I consider Cunningham and Bailey very comparable:
-- Cunningham played below the radar on a National Champion team where everybody was drooling over the guy on the other side of the formation.
-- Bailey has been a Miami jack-of-all-trades on forgettable teams, he's their hero, but not very high profile because they abused him so much and never let him get better at one position.
-- Their 10 splits, vertical and broad jumps are all in the same neighborhood. The QB is within ten yds, and they are both very explosive in their jumps and quick over ten yards for their size.
-- They both know how to hand fight in the trenches.
-- They both need/ed coaching up on technique.
-- BB reportedly saw Cunningham in practice and was able to see how he worked when there was no crowd to see. Bailey reportedly is one of the hardest workers in practice.

Clayborn was a linebacker in high school.

 

[borg]

Thank you again for an informative reply. I largely agree with your slotting, although Clayborn could be had lower depending on whether teams like TB and Atlanta rate Justin Houston higher.

What you didn't really address is whether BB is looking seriously at these types of Players for the Pats which strikes me as a change of emphasis. Cunningham isn't a great comp. because he fits the more traditional OLB weight wise in the 260lb range, but all these guys are in the 280lb range. Do you see them as only sub DE's or as base OLB's also?

As an aside, I found a useful youtube channel, caneinsider, which shows all the respective offensive and defensive highlights for Miami games last year. I think these are relevant to ourselves because Bailey, Hankerson and Brandon Harris are all 3 that I could see interesting the Pats in the second round.

If you get a chance, watch the defensive highlights package for Miami against UNC. Bailey looked dominant.

Randy Shannon was an aweful coach and he was fired not only for poor W/L records, but because his players rarely showed progress in developement. Talk Radio in S Fla did say that many of those drafted into the NFL showed nice progress once they left Shannon. Food for thought. Talented but Raw?????

 

[crowell33]

There's a group of players on the Patriots pre-draft contact list that intrigue me:

Christian Ballard
Adrian Clayborn
Da'Quan Bowers
Allen Bailey
Pernell McPhee

Two things strike me about them.

1. They are the wrong size for our base defense, too small for base DE, too big for OLB.

2. With the exception of McPhee and maybe Bowers, they are all projected to be picked in the low first, high second round area.

So why are the Pats looking at theses types of players so intently? Is it just due diligence in getting a look at the whole board in a key area of Patriots picks (28 and 33) or are they looking at them for sub package reasons? I know that accounted for 50%+ of defensive plays, but doesn't really jibe with what we think of as BB's draft philosophy, ie that top round picks need to be 3/4 down players.

FWIW, Mcphee was one of my earliest binkys and Allen Bailey is quickly becoming one of the players I most want the Patriots to draft. So I'm hoping that you'll all find the Patriots interest in these oversized elephants a worthwhile area of discussion.

Mike Wright replacement as the nickel DL pass rusher.

 

[HomerSchooled]

I too am starting to get intrigued by the idea of Bailey as a Jumbo OLB. He has rare athleticism for his size, and as an OLB, he could be dominant against the run while still providing a significant pass rush. Character sounds promising, and he played all over the place in Miami with success (including rushing from a two point stance). His ability to cover is really my only question, but I've zero doubt he has something to offer on all downs.

Interestingly, at his pro day, he weighed in at 275, 10 pounds lower than his weight at the combine. Despite the possibility that the drop could help him improve on his outstanding combine performances, he stood on all his numbers. So why lose the weight, especially when he was already notorious for sporting one of the most imposing physiques in the draft? Maybe, just maybe, he's trying to fit the OLB mold a little better?

 

[Patriot Missile]

I too am starting to get intrigued by the idea of Bailey as a Jumbo OLB. He has rare athleticism for his size, and as an OLB, he could be dominant against the run while still providing a significant pass rush. Character sounds promising, and he played all over the place in Miami with success (including rushing from a two point stance). His ability to cover is really my only question, but there's zero question he has something to offer on all downs.

Interestingly, at his pro day, he weighed in at 275, 10 pounds lower than his weight at the combine. Despite the possibility that the drop could help him improve on his outstanding combine performances, he stood on all his numbers. So why lose the weight, especially when he was already notorious for sporting one of the most imposing physiques in the draft? Maybe, just maybe, he's trying to fit the OLB mold a little better?

Another thing about Bailey is he is a gym rat. Takes care of himself about as well as Shannon Sharpe and the other chisseled athletes. I don't think they will ever have to worry about conditioning with this guy.

As much as I was against drafting this guy a month ago I must admit that the things I've read about his work ethic are winning me over. If this kid is as raw as some say and Belichick thinks he can mold him, I'm all for them making Bailey a Patriot.

 

[crowell33]

Another thing about Bailey is he is a gym rat. Takes care of himself about as well as Shannon Sharpe and the other chisseled athletes. I don't think they will ever have to worry about conditioning with this guy.

As much as I was against drafting this guy a month ago I must admit that the things I've read about his work ethic are winning me over. If this kid is as raw as some say and Belichick thinks he can mold him, I'm all for them making Bailey a Patriot.

Interesting. Bailey played linebacker for 4 years in high school. Was actually recruited as one of the nations top HS LBs. Converted to DE/ DT at Miami.

The only problem with this scenario is Jermaine Cunningham. He dropped into coverage only 38 times last year ( approx. twice a game ). Ninkovich was used regularly in coverage. If you draft Bailey, Cunningham gets used extensively in coverage.

 

[bucky]

Interesting. Bailey played linebacker for 4 years in high school. Was actually recruited as one of the nations top HS LBs. Converted to DE/ DT at Miami.

The only problem with this scenario is Jermaine Cunningham. He dropped into coverage only 38 times last year ( approx. twice a game ). Ninkovich was used regularly in coverage. If you draft Bailey, Cunningham gets used extensively in coverage.

I think this is a wonderful post and points out the 2 reasons why Bailey will NOT be drafted unless he slides way down the board (in which case he'll get drafted as a 3rd down specialist) :

1) He was not good enough to play LB in college. 2) He's exactly the kind of LB the Pats don't need.

 

[cstjohn17]

Just read that post. Largely agree although I'm in the Cam Jordan rather than JJ Watt camp although in the context of an Elephant backer, Watt's agility advantage makes him the better choice.

My vote is for Jordan and then Bailey, each could play some left OLB with infrequent responsibility of dropping into the flat. Primarily they would rush the passer from the left side either as an OLB or 4-3 end when in subs. They could also move inside in nickel situations.

Think more Jarvis Green than Willie McG.

 

[Patriot Missile]

Interesting. Bailey played linebacker for 4 years in high school. Was actually recruited as one of the nations top HS LBs. Converted to DE/ DT at Miami.

The only problem with this scenario is Jermaine Cunningham. He dropped into coverage only 38 times last year ( approx. twice a game ). Ninkovich was used regularly in coverage. If you draft Bailey, Cunningham gets used extensively in coverage.

Wasn't good enough or the team was more in need of him to play DE? To be honest with you I don't know all that much about the guy or his coaching situation. In some cases I'm willing to go in blind if I feel Belichick gives his seal of approval on a player. Apparently if BB does draft him that means BB has spent enough time with him and has a good idea of what the player can and can't do. Or another scenario being that Ninkovich will get a majority of the snaps while Bailey learns in subs and special teams play.

I'm not advocating the guy as my ultimate choice as LB for the New England Patriots. All I'm pointing out is I've read a lot of good things regarding his strong work ethic and would be ok with the player as a Patriot if BB feels he could mold the kid into something special. I didn't see Cunningham or McKenzie coming and I'm preparing myself right now for just about anything. As much time as BB has spent with Bailey he is either seriously considering him and his abilities or laying one giant smokescreen.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Interesting. Bailey played linebacker for 4 years in high school. Was actually recruited as one of the nations top HS LBs. Converted to DE/ DT at Miami.

The only problem with this scenario is Jermaine Cunningham. He dropped into coverage only 38 times last year ( approx. twice a game ). Ninkovich was used regularly in coverage. If you draft Bailey, Cunningham gets used extensively in coverage.

So, Jermaine Cunningham won't get better at making his reads and dropping into coverage? Playing 3-4 OLB as a rookie, especially one who missed a significant portion of preseason to injury, it's hardly surprising he wasn't in coverage that often. Further, if TBC was averaging something like 60% of game reps in Reiss' weekly breakdowns, is it possible to project a transition phase over TBC's final two seasons? More Cunningham, less TBC? Could happen.

 

[crowell33]

Wasn't good enough or the team was more in need of him to play DE? To be honest with you I don't know all that much about the guy or his coaching situation. In some cases I'm willing to go in blind if I feel Belichick gives his seal of approval on a player. Apparently if BB does draft him that means BB has spent enough time with him and has a good idea of what the player can and can't do. Or another scenario being that Ninkovich will get a majority of the snaps while Bailey learns in subs and special teams play.

I'm not advocating the guy as my ultimate choice as LB for the New England Patriots. All I'm pointing out is I've read a lot of good things regarding his strong work ethic and would be ok with the player as a Patriot if BB feels he could mold the kid into something special. I didn't see Cunningham or McKenzie coming and I'm preparing myself right now for just about anything. As much time as BB has spent with Bailey he is either seriously considering him and his abilities or laying one giant smokescreen.

Yes I agree. I think the Pats are seriously considering Bailey. He reminds me of a rich man's Jarvis Green. Country strong to stack the run out of the 3-4 as an End, and then quick enough to kick inside as DT nickel pass rusher.
We all know BB likes to spend his high picks on guys that can play on every down ( Mayo, McCourty, Seymour, etc )

 

[crowell33]

So, Jermaine Cunningham won't get better at making his reads and dropping into coverage? Playing 3-4 OLB as a rookie, especially one who missed a significant portion of preseason to injury, it's hardly surprising he wasn't in coverage that often. Further, if TBC was averaging something like 60% of game reps in Reiss' weekly breakdowns, is it possible to project a transition phase over TBC's final two seasons? More Cunningham, less TBC? Could happen.

Of course Cunningham will get better. My point is do you want Bailey, a college DT/ DE and Cunningham ( who up until last year had always been a D-lineman ) as your OLB's ? Do you think that gives you enough coverage against the pass? I think not, but thats just my opinion.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I think this is a wonderful post and points out the 2 reasons why Bailey will NOT be drafted unless he slides way down the board (in which case he'll get drafted as a 3rd down specialist) :

1) He was not good enough to play LB in college. 2) He's exactly the kind of LB the Pats don't need.

Oh dear me. I confess to not following Miami, or any college program, that closely to know all the strengths and weaknesses of their recruits and coaches, but as a casual fan of college football, Miami certainly seemed poorly run. Kind of like San Francisco or Cincinnati or any team with Herm Edwards as Head Coach.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Adrian Clayborn is my Binky this draft

I think he will end up being the best Defensive Lineman out of this class and if he is available in the late part of the first round and we don't draft him,I will be a bit upset

I expect Clayborn to be drafted somewhere in the 20s